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LINK $7.67 +4.44%
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selling

Analysis: On-chain data does not show that investors are massively selling off crypto assets to participate in the SpaceX IPO

According to CoinDesk, despite market speculation that some retail investors may sell Bitcoin to participate in SpaceX's record-breaking $75 billion IPO, stablecoin liquidity and on-chain data show that there are currently no signs of large-scale capital withdrawal from the crypto market.This SpaceX IPO is valued at approximately $1.8 trillion, allocating up to 30% of shares to retail investors through platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab, significantly higher than the traditional IPO's allocation of about 10% to individual investors. After the roadshow began, subscription demand has exceeded the issuance scale.Data shows that the outflow of USDT and USDC remains within the normal range since February this year, with no abnormal redemptions or supply contractions. In contrast, on June 6, Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded net outflows of approximately 66,470 BTC and 2.49 million ETH from exchanges, indicating that more investors are transferring assets to private wallets, showing signs of buying the dip rather than concentrated cashing out.However, on-chain data cannot reflect the trading behavior of users on platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, so whether crypto investors are selling assets to subscribe to SpaceX stock still requires waiting for relevant brokers to release subsequent data.Currently, the most significant capital outflows are coming from spot ETFs. Data shows that as of June 3, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total redemptions of approximately $4.4 billion; spot Ethereum ETFs have seen capital outflows for 17 consecutive trading days before returning to slight net inflows.According to the plan, SpaceX will complete pricing on June 11 and will be listed on Nasdaq under the stock code SPCX on June 12.

QCP Capital: Strategy of selling coins combined with macro pressure, Bitcoin fell over 11% weekly

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."

Analysis: Over the past 30 days, more than 100,000 BTC flowed into trading platforms while stablecoins accelerated outflow, increasing market selling pressure

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the inflow of BTC to trading platforms and the outflow of stablecoins from trading platforms simultaneously release a "risk aversion" signal, indicating that selling pressure in the market is increasing. Data shows that the net inflow of BTC to trading platforms over the past 30 days has shifted from an extreme net outflow of 300,000 BTC at the end of March to an inflow of 103,000 BTC, meaning more BTC is being reintroduced to trading platforms in preparation for sale. During the same period, the price of BTC dropped from $80,000 to $73,700.Meanwhile, stablecoins are flowing out of centralized trading platforms at a record pace. The average net flow of stablecoins over the past 30 days has shifted from an inflow of $164 million per day at the end of April to an outflow of $153 million per day. This indicates that the liquidity available for purchasing BTC in the market is decreasing. Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that when BTC flows into exchanges while stablecoins simultaneously flow out of trading platforms, it creates an unfavorable structure of "increased supply and decreased demand," which is a typical risk aversion market condition.He believes that if the net inflow of BTC continues to exceed +100,000 BTC, the market may face a deeper correction; while stable signals would include BTC turning back to a net outflow or stablecoins flowing back into trading platforms.
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