bullish

The SEC has postponed the "innovation exemption" plan for tokenized securities and canceled the cryptocurrency rules meeting, causing concept stocks such as Bullish, Coinbase, and the UNI token to drop.

According to GlobeNewswire, the cryptocurrency asset trading platform Bullish announced its financial performance for the second quarter of 2026. The company stated that as the global securities market gradually migrates to public chains, Bullish is planning to build a complete issuer-supported tokenized securities service system around issuance, listing, trading, and tracking.Bullish CEO Tom Farley stated that the global securities market, which is nearly $300 trillion in scale, is turning to public blockchains, and Bullish hopes to collaborate with issuers to drive this process. Once the proposed acquisition of Equiniti is completed, the company will form an integrated platform covering securities token issuance, listing, trading, and tracking.Financial data shows that Bullish's digital asset sales in the second quarter amounted to $32.6 billion, down from $58.6 billion in the same period last year; the net loss was $280 million, compared to a net profit of $108.3 million in the same period last year, corresponding to a diluted loss per share of $1.78.However, the company's core business performance has improved. Adjusted revenue (non-IFRS) for the second quarter reached $92.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 62%, higher than $57 million in the same period last year; among them, subscription, service, and other revenues reached a record $62.7 million. Adjusted trading revenue was $29.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 24%; adjusted EBITDA was $29.5 million, compared to $8.1 million in the same period last year; adjusted net profit was $14.3 million, compared to a loss of $6 million in the same period last year.In terms of business progress, Bullish stated that the acquisition of the UK fintech company Equiniti is progressing and is expected to be completed in early 2027, still subject to regulatory approvals and other customary conditions. In addition, Bullish's CoinDesk Index continues to gain institutional adoption. Morgan Stanley launched Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana-related trading products based on the CoinDesk benchmark index, attracting over $400 million in inflows in the second quarter.In terms of regulation, Bullish has obtained approval from the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission (GFSC) to provide secondary trading services for tokenized securities, becoming one of the first regulated platforms to offer issuer-supported tokenized securities trading.The company has also raised and refined its full-year guidance for 2026, expecting subscription, service, and other revenues (non-IFRS) to be between $225 million and $245 million, adjusted operating expenses to be between $225 million and $230 million, and financing costs to be expected between $52 million and $60 million.

With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, weakening oil prices, and strong corporate earnings, the U.S. stock market continues to strengthen. The S&P 500 index rose 5.8% in the first four trading days before August 4, and the options market simultaneously released the strongest bullish signals in recent years.Data shows that the average daily ratio of bullish to bearish options for the S&P 500 index has risen to 0.9, the highest level in at least four years; the skew indicator for short-term bullish options has also reached a two-year high, indicating that investors are paying higher premiums betting on a rapid market rise.Analysts believe that the current "fear of missing out" sentiment is heating up, with some institutional investors more worried about missing out on the upward trend rather than the risk of a downturn. However, there are also views that the extreme optimism in the options market may amplify short-term volatility, and caution is needed regarding the risk misjudgment driven by technical factors.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that hedge funds on the CME have turned into net long positions in BTC futures, which is a rare situation.He pointed out that basis trading usually causes hedge funds to structurally hold short positions, which is also the reason why related data has remained negative for years, and basis trading cannot be conducted in a net long position. This shift of hedge funds to net long positions in BTC futures indicates that institutional investors are optimistic about further increases in BTC prices.

Bank of America strategists indicate that investor bullish sentiment has reached extreme levels, suggesting a reduction in exposure to risk assets. The Bull-Bear Index rose from 9.4 to 9.7, marking the highest level since 2021. The rise in the stock market, inflows into high-yield bond funds, and narrowing credit spreads are the reasons for the optimistic sentiment.Hartnett stated that we are still in the summer "withdrawal/rotation" phase, advising investors to reduce allocations to risk assets and shift towards defensive assets and the dollar.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), with the strong rebound in the storage sector, the whale that previously bet $31 million bullishly after the Hynix earnings report has reversed from an unrealized loss of $3.13 million to an unrealized gain of $2.01 million, with an entry price of $981.59, during which SKHX fell to a low of $897.43.

According to BIT analysis, as the demand for call options accelerates, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has both rebounded, indicating that the quiet trading environment of summer may be nearing its end. Recently, there have been several large transactions of call options in the market.Meanwhile, after Bitcoin's implied volatility fell from 44% to 31%, it has now rebounded to 36%, further reflecting that market bullish sentiment is warming up. Although August and September are typically seasonally weak months, the rebound in call option demand and implied volatility is still expected to provide some support for Bitcoin prices. At the beginning of summer, BIT tended to short volatility, anticipating that the market would enter a consolidation phase. However, as option positions and overall market sentiment have both become more positive, BIT adjusted this judgment last week.

Researcher Adam from Greeks.live stated that the trading of large Bitcoin call options has significantly increased, with a total of 25,766 BTC call options traded, with a nominal value of approximately $1.65 billion. Among them, nearly 10,000 sets of the 70,000/72,000 USD call bull spread expiring at the end of this month have been traded, making it the most active contract.Adam noted that with about two weeks left until expiration at the end of this month, the large-scale purchases of out-of-the-money call options that are about 10% higher than the current price reflect the market's optimistic expectations for the market trend in late this month; however, the trading strategy of using the lower-cost bull spread also indicates that the funds are primarily taking a tentative approach rather than making aggressive bets.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish and has maintained this for the second week. A model that integrates multiple market data points shows that the Bitcoin status score has rebounded from a low of -42.9 on June 26 to +34.7. Over the past week, this score has remained in positive territory for more than 80% of the time, reaching a peak of +65.3 on July 10, indicating that the overall market sentiment has shifted from seller-dominated to buyer-strong.Currently, 79.4% of the multiple sub-indicators included in the model point in the same direction, significantly higher than this month's average of 57.3%, suggesting that there are no obvious contradictions among the data, and the current bullish signal is not noise. Moving forward, if the market sentiment score further rises above +50 and the consistency remains above 80%, the bullish trend will be further confirmed; if the score continues to fall below zero and consistency drops below 40%, the current trend will be considered invalid.

Multicoin Capital Managing Partner Tushar Jain shared in detail his valuation logic and investment framework for HYPE during the "When Shift Happens" podcast. He believes that HYPE is currently severely undervalued, with a benchmark valuation of $319, and recommends a pragmatic accumulation strategy to cope with volatility.Tushar candidly stated that trying to precisely time the market is nearly impossible. The recommended framework is: the first third: buy immediately (enter the market right away); the second third: invest according to a fixed schedule (for example, in batches over 1-2 months); the third third: increase positions opportunistically when prices dip. This method can significantly reduce psychological burden while achieving a good average cost when optimistic about the long-term prospects of the asset.Tushar's valuation model is based on four relatively conservative assumptions: the trading volume of crypto derivatives will maintain a 35% annual compound growth rate over the next two years; the DeFi derivatives market share will increase to 32%; the USDC collateral balance will grow in sync with trading volume; and the "false prosperity" currently created by some projects relying on subsidies will disappear after the subsidies are withdrawn, leading to an increase in Hyperliquid's true market share. Even with these conservative assumptions, HYPE's current price still has significant upside potential, possibly exceeding $600 in some optimistic scenarios.Tushar believes that Hyperliquid is far more than just a rapidly growing perpetual contract platform; it is expected to become a core part of crypto financial infrastructure.

The contract whale "Set 10 big goals first" recently shared three trades on social media: On June 25, opened a long position on BTC at $59,837.99 and closed it at $58,592.06, ultimately losing $4.88 million; on July 6, opened a long position on BTC at $62,590.4 and closed it at $64,022.01, ultimately gaining $4.54 million; on July 13, opened a long position on BTC at $63,064.4 and closed it at $64,287.08, ultimately gaining $4.27 million.

According to Jinshi, the global fund manager survey by Bank of America shows that fund managers' bullish sentiment towards the US stock market has reached its highest level since December 2024. A net 24% of respondents believe that US stocks will outperform other regions, marking the third highest allocation weight for US stocks in the past five years.In contrast, investors have reduced their allocation to UK stocks, with confidence dropping to its lowest point since August 2020.

Strive's Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy Joe Burnett stated that there are currently three types of investment views on Bitcoin in the market: first, the bulls, who believe that Bitcoin's long-term annualized return rate is higher than the cost of financing, and therefore are willing to borrow long-term capital to increase their Bitcoin holdings; second, the neutral investors, who view Bitcoin as a "Digital Credit" asset, only needing to believe that Bitcoin will not disappear and can generally follow the growth of USD inflation over the long term to meet their return needs.For example, according to Michael Saylor, if Bitcoin grows at an average annual rate of 3.3%, it can sustainably rely on capital gains to pay current dividends; third, the bears, who can express their views by shorting Bitcoin or leveraging Bitcoin products. Burnett believes that as bulls, neutrals, and bears all have corresponding Bitcoin investment tools, more capital is expected to enter the Bitcoin market.

According to a report by Caixin on July 7, SpaceX has won preliminary support from Wall Street, with global brokerages beginning to rate this rocket and AI company owned by Musk, forming a clear consensus: buy the stock.At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have started rating the stock, giving it a rating equivalent to buy, and agreeing with SpaceX's long-term growth narrative, although questions surrounding the company's profitability, execution, and valuation remain. Among them, Morgan Stanley set a target price of $300, one of the highest target prices on Wall Street, indicating an 87% upside from Monday's closing price of $160.42.Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX's stock price to be $75 in a bear market scenario and $600 in a bull market scenario, with revenues potentially reaching $319 billion by 2030 and $33 trillion by 2040.

According to CoinDesk, Ark Invest increased its holdings in related stocks during the decline in cryptocurrency company stock prices in June, purchasing $44 million in Coinbase stock, $25 million in Circle Internet stock, and $8.2 million in Bullish stock.Circle's stock price fell 40% in June, closing at $62.63 at the end of the month, with an 18% drop on June 30 after the launch of competitor stablecoin Open USD.

Crypto KOL Ansem posted a bullish outlook on the SOL/ETH exchange rate for trading. Ansem stated, "The bottom for Solana has been reached, I was the first to say it! Now everyone is extremely pessimistic about SOL, just like when it dropped to $8 in 2023. I think buying SOL at the current price with a holding period of over 6 months is a good deal."

The Block posted on the X platform that Cathie Wood's Ark Invest purchased more shares of Coinbase, Circle, Bullish, and Robinhood during the stock market decline on Thursday.

According to Jinshi reports, data shows that forex traders, including hedge funds, are buying options in large quantities, betting that the dollar will strengthen further after the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals this week. Leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday, and this demand continued into Thursday as investors digested the anti-inflation remarks from the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller. Tobias Jungmann, head of forex options at Bank of America, stated that the buying of dollar call options is heavily concentrated in G-10 currencies. James Swindell, a forex options trader at Barclays, also noted a significant increase in demand for dollar call options, particularly in the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs.