clarity

Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn pointed out that as the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 significantly decreases, the U.S. SEC and CFTC are intensifying independent cryptocurrency regulatory actions. The bill previously gained bipartisan support in the Senate Banking Committee but has stalled due to unresolved ethical rules for officials regarding cryptocurrency, pressure from community banks leading to some Republican positions softening, and disputes over developer protection clauses. The Senate Majority Leader failed to push for a vote before the August recess, and the September session is only about two to three weeks long, leading Galaxy to lower the probability to 10%.On the SEC side, the originally planned "Reg Crypto" exemption (which provides a new path for primary issuance of crypto assets) and "Innovation Exemption" (which allows tokenized securities to trade in DeFi secondary markets) have been postponed multiple times. It is reported that the agency had retreated due to opposition from the traditional securities industry, but may restart due to the bleak outlook of the bill, with text expected to be released in the coming weeks to months. These measures are likely to be time-limited sandboxes that will face litigation and require years to refine. The CFTC is actively advocating for jurisdiction over prediction market contracts, responding to the New York Attorney General's attempt to issue an emergency order to ban Kalshi event contracts nationwide, continuing the tug-of-war over federal and state jurisdiction regarding prediction markets.Thorn believes that while the bill covers a comprehensive framework including registration licensing, compliance monitoring, and consumer protection, it is currently more dominated by political factors. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce's planned departure in November also adds urgency to the advancement of the rules. The related actions aim to fill the legislative vacuum but may ultimately undergo a lengthy judicial and rule-making process.

Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser stated that although she remains concerned about how the CLARITY Act handles the rewards mechanism for stablecoins, overall, she hopes the bill will pass and believes it will benefit the financial system. Fraser indicated that Citigroup is still pushing for improvements to the bill.Fraser pointed out that if stablecoin platforms can offer rewards for user deposits, it may lead to a loss of deposits in traditional banks, thereby weakening banks' ability to provide loans and credit services in certain regions of the United States. Currently, the bill stipulates that platforms cannot offer rewards solely for users holding stablecoins, but they can provide rewards for trading and payment activities. This issue remains at the core of the controversy between the banking industry and the cryptocurrency sector as the bill progresses.

Renowned trader Killa posted that during the last bull market, Bitcoin began to recover from its lows before the ETF rumors and official approvals, emphasizing that the market often reflects positive news in advance.Therefore, this round may be similar; the current "Clarity Act" is forming a new narrative. "If it indeed becomes a catalyst, it is likely to mark the beginning of the first meaningful upward phase for BTC after the first bear market recovery, and the approval itself will soon push BTC towards a new ATH (just like the ETF approval)."Killa, a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on the X platform. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and turned bullish during the market-wide decline on June 5.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett posted on the X platform that although the U.S. Senate has postponed the key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act until September, regulators are preparing to advance their own cryptocurrency issuance rules framework. The Senate previously failed to complete the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, and the related agenda has been postponed until September. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has submitted a procedural motion, and a new voting window is expected around mid-September.Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing a new rule proposal for cryptocurrency asset issuance activities. Market participants believe that even if the legislative process for the CLARITY Act is delayed, regulators may still push for digital asset market structure reform through administrative rules.Analysts point out that in the coming months, the U.S. crypto regulatory path may see a "dual-track advancement": on one hand, Congress continues to push market structure legislation like the CLARITY Act; on the other hand, the SEC may establish a regulatory framework for token issuance, trading platforms, and digital asset service providers through rulemaking.

Patrick Witt posted on the X platform stating that the government is still committed to pushing the CLARITY Act through in September. He mentioned that only legislation can provide lasting rules, and there is a greater need for relevant legislation now more than ever.In addition, Patrick Witt criticized that every time the Democrats delay the bill, it further puts the U.S. behind in the competition in the crypto space, undermines its leadership in the global financial market, weakens national security, and deprives law enforcement of tools to combat crypto crime. He stated that the CLARITY Act is a true bipartisan achievement years in the making, and the Democrats still have the opportunity to shape U.S. digital asset policy by assisting in the legislation. The government will maintain an open attitude and continue good-faith negotiations until the vote in September.

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that even if the Clarity Act does not pass, the main blockchain operations, the demand for Bitcoin as a store of value, and the growth of stablecoin payments will not be immediately affected, and regulators will fill the regulatory gaps through rule-making.Zach Pandl pointed out that the lack of comprehensive market structure legislation may suppress new investment activities in the U.S., prompting participants in the crypto industry and startups to turn to overseas jurisdictions with clear regulatory frameworks. The U.S. government will continue to support the development of the crypto ecosystem. Strategy co-founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor previously stated that regardless of whether the Clarity Act passes, Bitcoin will continue to evolve, but the U.S. needs clarity in digital asset regulation. Senator Bernie Moreno stated that Senate Democrats and Republicans have concluded relevant negotiations and will proceed to a vote.

White House cryptocurrency advisor Patrick Witt posted on the X platform that the U.S. Congress has been pushing for cryptocurrency market structure legislation for many years, and the Senate has been negotiating the CLARITY Act since last summer. However, in the past week, Chuck Schumer and so-called "pro-cryptocurrency Democrats" blocked the bill from undergoing procedural voting before the recess and requested further delays.Patrick Witt warned that if the bill does not make progress before September 15, the likelihood of it passing in the future will be significantly reduced.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has moved to terminate the debate procedure on advancing the Clarity for Digital Assets Markets Act (CLARITY Act) into Senate consideration, with the Senate scheduled to hold a procedural vote on September 15. The vote is expected to take place at 2:15 PM Eastern Time after the Senate reconvenes that day.The motion requires 60 votes in support, meaning Republican senators will need Democratic support to pass the procedural threshold. The two parties are currently negotiating on issues such as ethical standards and stablecoin reward rules, with related disagreements causing the bill to fail to reach consensus before the August recess.This vote only concerns whether to initiate the bill's consideration process and does not represent a final vote on the bill or guarantee its passage in the Senate. The CLARITY Act aims to establish a federal market structure for digital assets and clarify the conditions under which certain crypto assets are subject to securities or commodities laws, as well as the regulatory responsibilities of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Zach Pandl, the head of research at Grayscale, published an analysis stating that although the Clarity Act may still reach an agreement on a technical level, the Senate schedule and the political reality of an election year make the likelihood of passing it this year very low, but the impact is limited. The failure of the bill will not immediately affect the operation of major blockchains, the demand for Bitcoin as a store of value, or the growth of stablecoin payments— the industry has been developing without this bill for nearly 17 years. However, the lack of comprehensive market structure legislation may hinder new investment activities in the U.S., including the development of the tokenized securities market and the regulatory framework for digital asset intermediaries. Under the current administration, regulatory guidance has supported the industry through measures such as new rules for institutional custody, improved bank access, staking policies, and the crypto ETP framework. The SEC and other regulatory agencies are expected to continue filling gaps through rulemaking. The lack of comprehensive regulation may lead to more entrepreneurial activities flowing overseas.

According to CoinDesk, U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune officially submitted a procedural motion for the Clarity Act after an all-night voting session on Saturday morning, initiating the first procedural voting process for the bill in the Senate. This move makes it possible for the Clarity Act to enter procedural voting immediately after the September recess, but the bill has already missed the voting window before the August recess, and passing in September still faces challenges.The Clarity Act requires at least 60 votes in support, and currently needs the backing of at least 10 Democratic senators, but there are still disagreements over the ethical clause that prohibits senior government officials (including President Trump) from participating in cryptocurrency projects. Bipartisan senators have submitted a revised proposal to the White House, but it has been on hold for at least a week without a response. Additionally, controversies surrounding illegal financial protections and stablecoin earnings remain unresolved. If the procedural vote fails in September, the chances of the Clarity Act passing this year will be extremely slim, and the new Congress in 2027 will need to reintroduce the legislation.

The U.S. Senate has postponed the vote on the CLARITY Act until after the summer recess, increasing uncertainty about the bill's passage in the short term.The CLARITY Act had previously received bipartisan support in the House of Representatives and aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, clarify the responsibilities of different regulatory agencies, and promote the further integration of crypto assets into the U.S. financial system.North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis stated that with the vote postponed until September, the probability of the bill's final passage "may have decreased by 50%." Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, who is responsible for pushing the negotiations, indicated that discussions have been ongoing for nearly 11 months, the bill text has increased by about 300 pages, and it has responded to numerous amendment requests from Democrats, and it should now enter the voting phase.Currently, Democrats still oppose the existing version, with the main disagreement centered on the restrictions on government officials' interests in crypto assets. Democrats believe that the current version does not adequately limit federal officials' investments and promotion of crypto assets, nor does it require relevant personnel to fully divest from related holdings, while also seeking to grant state attorneys general stronger enforcement powers.Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers had previously pushed for the inclusion of stricter ethical oversight provisions, but negotiations are still ongoing. Democrats are particularly concerned about the connections between Trump and his family with crypto projects like World Liberty Financial.Previously, the crypto industry hoped the Senate could advance procedural voting before the summer recess to adjust political investments during the 2026 midterm elections based on legislative progress. Data shows that the crypto industry's main political action committee, Fairshake, held nearly $200 million in cash reserves at the beginning of this cycle.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that if the Clarity Act does not pass this week, the market may experience a brief fluctuation, but it will be prepared for a rebound in the fall.

Founder of Strategy Michael Saylor posted on X platform: "Bitcoin does not need the Clarity Act; the United States needs clarity."

According to Bloomberg, to advance the landmark cryptocurrency legislation "Clarity Act," bipartisan senators have proposed an ethical provision to Trump that may include a clause allowing the president to defer capital gains tax on his cryptocurrency assets. The proposal requires the president to divest from cryptocurrency-related businesses, and the relevant terms are still being negotiated between the White House and lawmakers. In June 2025, Trump reported that his family's cryptocurrency business generated over $1.4 billion in revenue, indicating that most of his income has come from digital assets benefiting from his own policies. Democratic senators have made strong ethical provisions a condition for supporting the bill, which aims to clarify the regulatory authority over the cryptocurrency industry.

According to Politico, the U.S. Senate has decided to postpone the vote on the Clarity Act until September.

Punchbowl News reporters posted on the X platform that negotiations in the U.S. Senate regarding the CLARITY Act are affecting the legislative process before the recess. The Democratic leadership continues to push for a delay in the procedural vote on the cryptocurrency regulation bill, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer hopes to gain more time for further negotiations.Meanwhile, Republicans are calling for a swift move to a vote. Both sides are still coordinating on the content of the bill and related provisions, and there remains uncertainty about whether the CLARITY Act will enter the voting stage before the Senate recess.

According to BeInCrypto, Tim Scott, the chairman of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, stated that the CLARITY Act, aimed at regulating the cryptocurrency market, will be voted on before Congress goes into recess, and "there will undoubtedly be a vote."In an interview with Fox News, Scott mentioned that the Senate might extend its working hours, not limited to the next two days, to push forward the relevant legislation. He noted that there is a consensus forming within the Republican Party regarding the bill and believes that advancing a cryptocurrency regulatory framework "is in the interest of the United States."Tim Scott stated, "We will get this done."The CLARITY Act aims to further clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, delineating the regulatory responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the cryptocurrency market. Supporters believe that the bill will provide clearer rules for the industry and help the U.S. maintain its competitiveness in the digital asset space.Currently, the bill still faces internal congressional disputes regarding consumer protection, regulatory authority, and market risks. If ultimately passed, it will be an important step in building the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory system.

According to CoinDesk, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that she supports pushing for cryptocurrency-related legislation but does not support the current CLARITY Act, believing that the bill fails to adequately address key issues such as corruption, consumer protection, national security, and economic risks.Warren pointed out that the crypto industry needs a clear regulatory framework, but the regulatory plan must ensure investor rights and the safety of the financial system. She believes that the CLARITY Act is lacking in preventing conflicts of interest, protecting consumers, and reducing potential systemic risks.The CLARITY Act aims to further clarify the division of regulatory responsibilities for the U.S. digital asset market, establishing a clearer legal framework for cryptocurrency asset trading, issuance, and market participants. Supporters believe that the bill helps enhance industry certainty and promote innovation.However, some Democratic lawmakers, including Warren, have previously expressed concerns about cryptocurrency regulatory legislation, arguing that some proposals could weaken the power of regulatory agencies and create regulatory arbitrage opportunities for large crypto companies.Warren has long taken a cautious stance on crypto assets, focusing on consumer protection, financial stability, and the risks of illegal activities in the crypto market. This statement indicates that U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory legislation still faces a struggle between the two parties and different interest groups.

According to CoinDesk, Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association and former commissioner of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), published an article responding to the Wall Street Journal's editorial on August 4, accusing it of a fundamental misreading of the Clarity Act.Mersinger stated that the bill explicitly prohibits stablecoin rewards that are equivalent to bank deposit interest but allows for rewards similar to credit card points and user behavior-based incentive mechanisms. From the perspective of DeFi regulation, Section 10301 of the bill requires the SEC to establish regulatory rules for protocols that are "nominally decentralized and substantially controllable," which does not equate to regulatory exemption; Section 10201 includes digital commodity brokers under all reporting obligations of the Bank Secrecy Act and allocates $3 billion for state-level enforcement, contrary to the Wall Street Journal's accusations of insufficient regulation of illegal finance.Addressing concerns about the "shadow market" for tokenized securities, Mersinger emphasized that Section 10505 of the bill clearly states that securities remain subject to SEC oversight even after settlement on the blockchain. She believes that the Wall Street Journal is essentially defending the monopoly position of traditional financial institutions, which conflicts with the free market principles that the paper has consistently advocated.