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Gray Research Director: Ethereum is like a "small country," and the issuance of ETH determines the balance between network security and currency

Zach Pandl, the head of research at Grayscale, posted on the X platform comparing Ethereum to a "small country" and discussed the ETH issuance mechanism. He believes that Ethereum has only one core "government function": to protect property rights and value exchange within the system. Unlike traditional countries that provide public services through taxation, Ethereum primarily funds network security through "seigniorage," which is the issuance of new ETH.In this framework, the stakers responsible for maintaining network security are akin to a group providing public services, as they receive rewards through newly issued ETH. Therefore, Ethereum's staking mechanism and ETH issuance policy essentially constitute the network's fiscal and monetary policy. Zach Pandl pointed out that the Ethereum community needs to decide how much "new currency" should be used to cover network security costs. More security typically means stronger protection of property rights, but at the cost of a higher ETH issuance rate and potential other risks.For example, if network security increasingly relies on a few large staking service providers, there remains room for discussion about whether these providers can maintain the asset rights of all users completely neutrally. Pandl believes that, just as in traditional economies, no one knows the "optimal level" of government spending and currency issuance; the same applies to Ethereum. However, Ethereum has several key security thresholds, including: 1/3: an attacker reaching this ratio may affect finality; 1/2: affects blockchain fork choice; 2/3: can control the finality process. Some community members believe that the design of Ethereum's monetary and fiscal policy should consider the security trade-offs brought by these key ratios, while the current mechanism has not adequately incorporated these factors. However, the above analogy is not entirely accurate, as it does not yet involve other important factors such as the ETH burn mechanism, MEV, governance, etc.

Gray Research Director: ETH and SOL may face supply contraction, and the reduction of inflation mechanisms will strengthen token scarcity

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that the two major blockchain networks, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), are considering adjusting their token economic models to enhance asset scarcity by reducing future token supply growth through lowering annual inflation rates. As important native assets supporting stablecoins and tokenized asset ecosystems, the prices of ETH and SOL are primarily determined by supply and demand dynamics. If the relevant code upgrade proposals are approved, under unchanged conditions, lower supply growth may provide support for token prices.According to Grayscale's analysis, if the relevant adjustments are implemented, the supply inflation rates of BTC, ETH, and SOL will continue to decline over the next five years. By the end of 2031, the annual inflation rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to be around 0.4%, and Solana around 1.1%, which is lower than gold's annual supply growth rate of about 1.8% and the U.S. CPI inflation level of about 3.3%. Currently, these token economic adjustments are still in the community discussion phase. Among them, the Solana-related proposal has gained broader support and has a higher likelihood of implementation; the Ethereum proposal still requires further discussion.If the adjustments are implemented, staking users may face reduced token rewards, as part of the staking income comes from the issuance of new tokens. However, due to the decline in the growth rate of circulating supply, the scarcity value of the tokens may increase, potentially providing price support. For ETH and SOL holders who do not participate in staking, they may benefit directly; the final returns for stakers will depend on the balance between the decrease in rewards and the increase in prices. Zach Pandl concluded that ETH and SOL are becoming important digital commodities supporting stablecoins and the tokenization of real assets, and the economic model adjustments aimed at reducing inflation may further strengthen their scarcity attributes.

hot_img Reuters: Microsoft has closed at least 15 branches in China over the past five years, with AI overseas business becoming a key factor for retention

According to a report by Reuters, influenced by multiple factors such as the tense Sino-U.S. relations, China's push for domestic software alternatives, and U.S. export controls, Microsoft has closed at least 15 branches and joint ventures in China over the past five years, executing a strategic contraction. In 2023, the company internally considered exiting the Chinese market, as some executives believed that "the geopolitical risks outweighed the limited economic returns," but ultimately did not proceed with the exit. Microsoft disclosed in 2024 that its business in China accounted for only about 1.5% of its global revenue.The report states that Microsoft's final decision to remain in China was primarily due to the establishment of a profitable path—providing Azure cloud and AI services to Chinese companies like ByteDance and Shein, helping them operate compliantly in overseas markets. Additionally, the company believes that retaining its business in China remains strategically significant for acquiring engineering talent. However, analysts question the sustainability of this AI business model: the service relies on third-party models like OpenAI, and Chinese companies are increasingly adopting domestic alternatives like Kimi, which offer comparable performance at lower costs.Microsoft's research and development presence in China is also contracting. Its predecessor, Microsoft Research Asia, has successively established new labs in Vancouver, Singapore, and Tokyo. In 2024, the company offered job opportunities to 1,000 top engineers to relocate to the U.S. and three other countries, but only about one-third accepted, with most senior engineers moving to domestic universities and tech companies. A Microsoft spokesperson responded that the company will continue to commit to the Chinese market but did not comment on specific decision details. ByteDance and Shein did not respond to related inquiries.

first_img GSR Market Director: Many tokenization platforms lack real trading volume, and speculation has exceeded actual usage

According to a report by Cryptonomist, GSR's market director Spencer Hallarn stated in an interview that the hype around tokenization has surpassed the actual usage on many platforms. The issue lies not in the market's demand for tokenized assets, but in the design of the platforms themselves. He pointed out that many walled garden-style tokenization platforms with strict KYC requirements generally lack meaningful trading volume, as cumbersome access and compliance processes limit activity.Hallarn believes that the real opportunity is not in tokenizing for the sake of tokenization, but in fixing the underlying pipelines of traditional banking and settlement systems, specifically the infrastructure for transferring funds and assets between institutions. This would make tokenization more of an infrastructure repair rather than merely a narrative of crypto products.He also mentioned that the stagnation in the crypto market this year is largely due to funds shifting towards AI infrastructure, with large tech companies raising substantial amounts of capital for AI infrastructure through equity financing, tightening the liquidity of various assets, and crypto is no exception. Its clients are also shifting from chasing short-term momentum to long-term budget planning, over-the-counter hedging, and RWA. If AI investment cools down and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, liquidity is expected to improve and support Bitcoin prices.
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