conflict

As the Middle East conflict leads to flight cancellations and logistics disruptions, a large amount of gold stranded in Dubai is being sold at a noticeable discount.Insiders reveal that due to exceptionally high transportation and insurance costs, and the inability to guarantee timely delivery, many buyers have suspended new procurement orders. As a result, under the pressure of indefinitely bearing storage and capital costs, traders have started selling gold at discounts of up to $30 per ounce below the London benchmark price.Sources say that although some gold has been loaded onto flights leaving Dubai since the middle of this week, as of Friday, many batches of gold remain stranded. The UAE, especially Dubai, is a significant global hub for gold refining and trading, exporting gold to various parts of Asia and serving as an important transit point for gold to Switzerland, the UK, and several African countries. Due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, some airspace in the UAE has been closed; meanwhile, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have entered their seventh day, with no signs of an end in sight.

According to Cointelegraph, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that the rise in Brent crude oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict could push up the 10-year US Treasury yield, thereby driving the MOVE index higher and triggering a round of relief measures implemented through money printing.

Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted another $500 million in inflows, with 10 out of 11 U.S. Bitcoin ETFs being favored by investors. Additionally, since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, Bitcoin has risen about 12%, while gold has seen a decline during the same period. This performance has sparked discussions in the market about the safe-haven properties of both assets.Eric Balchunas further stated that it is relatively rare for Bitcoin to strengthen while gold declines in the context of rising geopolitical uncertainty, prompting some investors to rethink the roles of traditional "safe-haven assets" and "digital gold." This raises the question of whether gold has failed to act as a safe haven in the current environment, or conversely, whether Bitcoin is gradually taking on some of the functions of a safe-haven asset. However, there remains a long-term divide in the market, with some analysts believing that gold is still the primary safe-haven asset during traditional crises, while Bitcoin's market performance tends to be more volatile.

According to Jinshi reports, International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva stated that if the conflict is confirmed to be prolonged, it could obviously affect energy prices, market sentiment, and inflation.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet suspected to be linked to the US-Iran conflict, after being silent for three days, invested $3,000 predicting that the Iranian regime will collapse before March 31.This wallet was created on February 28 and had previously made only two prediction trades, both of which were successful, with a profit of $16,000.

According to market news, due to the conflict in the Middle East, most air traffic in and out of Dubai has been disrupted, severely affecting the flow of gold and silver globally.Traders indicate that this could trigger further volatility in metal prices, which have already been significantly fluctuating this year. Dubai is a key hub for precious metal transportation, accounting for about 20% of the global gold flow last year. Traders and analysts point out that if the transportation of gold and silver goods is hindered for an extended period, it may drive up regional prices in the Asian market.John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, stated, "With flights in the Middle East suspended, the availability of gold has become a concerning issue." A gold trader mentioned, "Currently, no goods are moving by air." Typically, gold is transported as cargo on passenger planes, with a single flight capable of carrying up to 5 tons, valued at approximately $830 million at current prices.

According to Jinshi reports, as the conflict in the Middle East has led to the suspension of most air transport to and from Dubai, the circulation of gold and silver globally is facing serious disruptions. Traders indicate that this situation may further exacerbate the already highly volatile precious metal prices this year. Dubai is a significant hub for precious metal transportation, with about 20% of the world's gold circulation passing through the region last year. John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, stated that the availability of gold supply has become an issue.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that before the Iran war, the inflation trend was improving, but now the conflict has made the monetary policy outlook uncertain.

According to the market analysis report released by Wintermute, the military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran have triggered a risk-averse sentiment in the market, causing the price of Bitcoin to drop to $63,000 before rebounding to around $67,000. The military operation, code-named "Epic Fury," began last Saturday evening, targeting Iranian military facilities and reportedly resulting in the deaths of Iran's supreme leader and senior officials. The conflict has lasted for three days, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and airspace in the Gulf region shut down, showing an escalation rather than a de-escalation of tensions.Macroeconomic pressures are mounting: oil prices surged by 9%, briefly surpassing $80; analysts have raised their Brent crude oil forecast to $100; gold prices approached $5,400, adding about $1 trillion in market value within hours; the stock market opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 500 points at one point; the VIX fear index reached its highest level since 2026.In the cryptocurrency market, despite over $1 billion in inflows into ETFs last week, ending five consecutive weeks of outflows, there has still been a net outflow of about $4.5 billion year-to-date, and institutional over-the-counter trading activity remains notably sluggish. The volatility indicator DVOL surged from the 30-40 range to about 55, with the options market anticipating a daily volatility of 2.5-3%. Wintermute's analysis suggests that if the conflict continues and keeps energy prices high, it could maintain elevated inflation levels and delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, thereby exerting broader pressure on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out in a research report that the protraction of the Middle East conflict could put pressure on emerging economies in Asia. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for six weeks, oil prices could rise to $85 per barrel.In this scenario, the region's inflation rate could increase by about 0.7 percentage points, with the highest sensitivity in the Philippines and Thailand. Supply disruptions could average a 0.5 percentage point drag on the region's real GDP growth, with Singapore being the most severely affected. Goldman Sachs added that almost all countries in the region could see a deterioration in their current account balances, led by Thailand and Singapore.

According to sources, market fluctuations caused by the US-Iran conflict have increased the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will postpone interest rate hikes later this month.

According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin has long been touted as providing something that other markets cannot: a 24-hour real-time barometer of global risk appetite. However, after news of the U.S. strikes against Iran, Bitcoin initially fell, then fluctuated, and ultimately rose. By Monday, its trading price was above the level prior to the attack, leaving almost no lasting signs of panic or safe-haven seeking.This trend reflects deeper issues. After falling about 50% from its historical peak, Bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow range of approximately $60,000 to $70,000. Since the collapse of the crypto market last October, most leverage has been forced out. Retail participation has decreased, and capital inflows have weakened. In the context of overall lighter positions, the subsequent impact of new shocks has also been smaller.

According to Gate market data, at the opening of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.15%, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 1.5%. Star tech stocks performed poorly, with ASML (ASML.O) down 2.2%, TSMC (TSM.N) down 2.4%, and Amazon (AMZN.O) down 2.7%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 2%.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts say that due to the Middle East conflict potentially triggering a demand for immediate liquidity, the dollar strengthened against most currencies during the Asian trading session. Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research at Mizuho Securities, stated that due to the "cash is king" mentality, the dollar may maintain buying advantages, which could be further solidified by the greater disadvantages of the euro and most other non-oil currencies.

Javier Blas, a columnist for Bloomberg focusing on energy and commodities, wrote that the Iranian attacks have a severe impact on oil prices but are not a shock.Blas's article points out that the market is most concerned about whether both sides will target energy infrastructure and the forced closure of tanker routes. Neither of these has happened yet. There is still no indication of this. Despite fears that Iran might set fire to the Middle Eastern energy industry, targeting oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, Tehran has not yet weaponized oil. Israel and the United States have also not targeted Iran's oil infrastructure.Analysts say that oil prices are likely to soar, but even the most bullish traders are talking about a possible rise to $100 per barrel, which is far below the $139 per barrel peak reached after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and the record $147.50 per barrel in 2008. Viewed through that wide-angle lens, this time in the Middle East is unlikely to trigger an oil shock.Additionally, although the physical market has been weak, the financial oil market has remained bullish, with traders rushing to buy oil in anticipation of rising prices. A year ago, the 12-day war between Israel and the United States caught many traders off guard, triggering a wave of buying that caused crude oil prices to spike. This time, the number of bullish positions is at one of the highest levels in the past decade. Therefore, oil traders are better prepared to absorb this crisis.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an analysis stating that since 1985, every U.S. president has initiated military actions against Middle Eastern countries, and Trump has continued this tradition. He uses simple logic to judge Bitcoin's trend: the longer the U.S. is involved in the Iran situation, the more likely the Federal Reserve is to cut interest rates or print money to support war expenditures, which will drive up Bitcoin prices.Regarding trading strategies, Hayes stated: "Currently, we are unclear how long Trump can maintain his involvement, spending billions or even trillions of dollars to reshape Iranian politics according to his wishes, nor do we know how much geopolitical and financial market shock he can withstand before retreating. The wise approach is to wait and see. The real opportunity to buy Bitcoin and quality altcoins like HYPE is after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or increases money supply to support the Iranian government’s objectives."

According to Jin Shi reports, the Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Paul Chan, stated today that there is not much direct trade and investment between Hong Kong and Iran, but the ongoing conflict has created significant uncertainty globally. He estimated that the financial markets are experiencing considerable volatility due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, with capital flows potentially shifting more rapidly and uncertainty persisting. Local funds may seek a "safe haven" and come to Hong Kong, and the SAR government must be prepared to carefully manage financial risks, having already established sufficient contingency plans. He pointed out that this conflict may have a short-term impact on gold prices, oil prices, and international trade transportation costs, and the SAR government has been continuously assessing the related risks.