geopolitics

After 21 hours of negotiations, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that no agreement was reached, as Iran refused to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Trump had previously warned that if negotiations failed, he would implement "total destruction" against Iran. The Iranian conflict has shaken the cryptocurrency market for several weeks, compounded by tariff issues, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below $70,000 earlier this month.Before the negotiations began, crypto analysts indicated that if an agreement were reached, Bitcoin could rise to $80,000; if negotiations broke down, it might fall back to $65,000. Bulls noted that on-chain wallet data showed that the largest Bitcoin whales continued to buy during periods of intense geopolitical turmoil rather than selling. Their logic is that if the conflict escalates further and disrupts oil supply in the Persian Gulf, leading to rising oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold tend to perform well in such contexts.On the bearish side, gold trader and long-term Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff stated that as the conflict escalates, investors will flee from Bitcoin to gold. Peter Schiff predicted that Bitcoin would "collapse," claiming that gold is the only true safe-haven asset in wartime, and further suggested that insiders within the administration might be profiting from the volatility surrounding the conflict. If Trump follows through on his threat of "total destruction," both the stock market and the crypto market will almost certainly face simultaneous sell-offs.Regarding further developments, Vance maintained a firm stance at the press conference but did not rule out the possibility of continued negotiations. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon and the unfreezing of assets before participating in formal negotiations. For Bitcoin traders, the next 72 hours hinge on two questions: Can the ceasefire agreement hold, and will Trump escalate the conflict? Currently, there are still whales buying at the current price level, indicating that at least some large investors are betting on a stabilization of the situation.

Bybit announced that it will co-host an online live broadcast today on the Bybit official website and X platform with DefiLlama Research (DL Research), reviewing the "2025 World Cryptocurrency Application Index Report" previously released by both parties.It is reported that this live broadcast will be participated by Bybit's Chief Market Analyst Han Tan and the DL Research research team members Seb and Stan. The core topics will focus on the recent dramatic changes in the global situation and the trends in the cryptocurrency market, with a particular emphasis on the performance and resilience of cryptocurrencies in geopolitical conflicts, the current development status of the stablecoin ecosystem, new trends in RWA and tokenization applications, as well as the specific performance of the Middle Eastern market, represented by the UAE, under the current geopolitical "stress test."

QCP released the latest market report indicating that against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions, the cryptocurrency market has shown relative strength, with Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking through $74,000 and $2,270 respectively, while stocks and gold assets remain under pressure during the same period. The report believes that this trend is reinforcing the narrative of "digital safe-haven assets" and "geopolitical hedging tools."QCP stated that tensions related to Iran may drive an increase in on-chain activity and cross-border liquidity demand. Data shows that last week, the supply of USDC rose to a historical high of approximately $81.1 billion, with overall stablecoin supply increasing simultaneously, indicating new inflows into the cryptocurrency market amid global uncertainty.Institutional demand has also shown signs of recovery. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETF recording inflows for the third consecutive week, totaling approximately $1.75 billion. Meanwhile, Strategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings.In the options market, spot prices are approaching the important end-of-month strike price BTC-27MAR26-75K-C (approximately 8,000 contracts). The report notes that if the price effectively breaks through $75,000, it may trigger a rally driven by the Gamma effect, while $74,500 remains a key short-term resistance level, with a dense area of short liquidations above.

According to the latest "February 2026 Private Wealth Management Monthly Report" released by Gate, the cryptocurrency market faced overall pressure in February due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with BTC experiencing a monthly decline of approximately 15.5%, and ETH also retracing. The market's fear and greed index dropped into the "extreme fear" zone, indicating a significant increase in risk-averse sentiment.Against this backdrop, Gate's private wealth management products maintained overall steady performance, but short-term returns showed some differentiation. Among them, Star Core Smart Investment (USDT) had the highest annual return rate, reaching 9.5%; Starry Hedge (USDT) and Star Orbit Arbitrage (USDT) had cumulative return rates of 18.0% and 17.2%, respectively. During the statistical period, Starry Hedge (USDT) achieved positive returns in all 20 cycles, with a total win rate of 100%; Gravitational Hedge (USDT) also performed outstandingly, with a total win rate of 95%.The report pointed out that recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising shipping risks have heightened market concerns about disruptions in crude oil supply, driving a rebound in WTI oil prices. Looking ahead, the narratives related to AI Agents and TradFi may continue to attract market attention in the next 1-2 months and become important catalysts for capital rotation.

Matrixport's analysis states that since early February, Bitcoin has maintained a sideways consolidation. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, weakening U.S. employment data, and a general pullback in global stock markets (with the South Korean stock market experiencing a significant drop at one point), Bitcoin has still demonstrated strong resilience.Even with a sharp rise in oil prices over the weekend, Bitcoin only retraced to the support level around $66,000, and this level continues to provide support. The institution also mentioned in its previous daily report that the possibility of Bitcoin strengthening again and returning to the $70,000 to $80,000 range is increasing. As the market gradually digests the impact of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin is expected to break free from the disturbances of geopolitical factors and repair towards a higher trading range.

Due to the impact of rising international tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, international crude oil prices have surged significantly, and the overall commodity sector has shown a marked upward trend. Meanwhile, Donald Trump stated today on the X platform that a short-term rise in oil prices is acceptable, and once the Iranian nuclear threat is eliminated, oil prices may quickly retreat.According to Gate market data, XTI (WTI crude oil) reached a high of $110.53 in 24 hours, currently reported at $109.36, with an increase of 18.64%; XBR (Brent crude oil) peaked at $113.84 in 24 hours, currently reported at $109.86, with an increase of 17%, indicating significant market volatility. Data from CoinGlass shows that as the market rapidly surged, the trading activity of crude oil derivatives also increased.Among them, Gate XBR (Brent crude oil) had a 24-hour contract trading volume of $12 million, a month-on-month increase of 951.37%, ranking first globally; XTI (WTI crude oil) had a 24-hour contract trading volume of $21.15 million, a month-on-month increase of 397.08%, also ranking first globally, with continuous growth in capital attention and market participation.Gate has pioneered the metal contract trading sector, providing 24/7 uninterrupted trading, offering users greater strategic flexibility and asset management efficiency in volatile markets. Gate contracts cover various traditional financial assets, including stocks, metals, foreign exchange, indices, and commodities, supporting trading in gold, silver, and crude oil. Gate continues to build a more efficient and professional multi-asset one-stop trading platform for global users.

"BTC OG insider whale" agent Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that recent geopolitical events have caused fluctuations in macro indicators, which in turn affect the cryptocurrency market. Garrett Jin believes that the current key indicators include: crude oil, the U.S. dollar index, and the U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury yield, and stated, "We are still within the risk range, but now is a typical time to remain cautious."The current changes in macroeconomic indicators mentioned by Garrett Jin are as follows: the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has risen to 3.49%, and the 10-year yield is at 4.05% (the yield curve is positive, but geopolitical risks are increasing macro uncertainty), with Bitcoin rising 5% in the short term as a safe-haven asset. Garrett Jin hinted that investors should avoid chasing highs amid volatility driven by geopolitical events, prioritizing the observation of oil prices and dollar dynamics to assess the downside risks for cryptocurrencies.

According to Jinshi reports, Daniela Hathorn from Capital.com stated in a report that increased uncertainty may lead to a reduced preference for risk assets due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.She pointed out that as investors digest the geopolitical risk premium, market volatility may rise. If the situation stabilizes, risk aversion may fade, conflicts are controlled, and shipping lanes remain open, volatility may dissipate quickly.

ChainCatcher news, BitwiseInvest advisor Jeff Park pointed out in an article that Benjamin Graham's "The Intelligent Investor" is no longer applicable to the current market, and the traditional "Newtonian investors" relying on earnings and discount models are gradually becoming ineffective. He believes that global investment is entering an era of "ideological investors," where capital allocation is increasingly driven by geopolitical, artificial intelligence, and cultural factors, rather than purely by yield models.In this framework, Park views Bitcoin as a deep value asset: its code operates beyond geopolitical interference; its consensus mechanism reflects the value of computing power and is unrelated to the AI paradigm; its community culture is globally unified and decentralized. He stated that Bitcoin possesses both hedging and belief attributes, allowing it to maintain resilience amid institutional changes and ideological conflicts, thus becoming a core asset for ideological investors.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley strategist Wilson stated that although the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have dominated the headlines, sell-offs triggered by geopolitical events typically last for a shorter duration.After the U.S. joined Israel's attack over the weekend, the market reaction was relatively mild, with Brent crude oil prices rising by as much as 5.7%, but most of the gains were given back on Monday. However, Iran may respond to the escalation by disrupting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial transportation route for global oil and gas.

ChainCatcher news, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor posted on the X platform that history will remember Trump for establishing the U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, which is a turning point in the financial and geopolitical landscape of the 21st century.