halving

Chairman of Bitmine, Tom Lee, stated that Ethereum may experience a new round of V-shaped rebound after a recent decline, and it is currently close to the bottom range. He pointed out that since 2018, Ethereum has gone through 8 cycles of declines exceeding 50%, and all 8 have rebounded at a similar pace and achieved a 100% recovery.Despite the pressure on price performance, on-chain data shows that the demand for ETH staking remains strong. Currently, the waiting time for validators has risen to a historical high of 71 days, with approximately 4 million ETH queued for staking, and the total staking accounts for 30.3% of the circulating supply (about 36.7 million ETH).

In South Korea, only 2 virtual asset businesses were approved by the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) in 2025, halving from 4 in 2024. The approval time has been extended from an average of 11 months to 16 months, with some cases exceeding 600 days. The FIU has adopted a conservative approval strategy due to delays in the passage of the virtual asset bill. However, on December 23 last year, the FIU approved the license renewal for Dunamu, the operator of the largest exchange Upbit, which was granted about 1 year and 4 months after the renewal deadline expired.The FIU had previously imposed a fine of 35.2 billion won on Dunamu, and the renewal was released after the sanction process was completed. Currently, exchanges such as Korbit, Bithumb, Coinone, and Gopax have submitted renewal applications. The industry expects that as the renewals of large exchanges are completed, the uncertainty in the sector will gradually diminish.

Bitcoin closed lower in 2025 than at the beginning of the year, marking the first time in history that it recorded an annual decline in the year following a halving, sparking intense discussions in the market about whether the "Bitcoin four-year cycle" has come to an end. Despite the latest halving occurring in April 2024, BTC previously reached an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, but then experienced a significant pullback, currently down over 30% from its peak, with weaker performance throughout the year.Analysts pointed out that after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin reached new highs in the following year, a pattern that has not continued in this cycle. Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, bluntly stated that Bitcoin's decline in the year following the halving means that the "four-year cycle is officially dead."Investor Armando Pantoja believes that the inclusion of ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheets has made Bitcoin less driven by retail sentiment and more influenced by macro factors such as liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitics. However, there are differing opinions. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated that the four-year cycle still exists but is no longer driven solely by "programmatic halving," instead unfolding in new forms.The divergence in the market regarding the long-term cycle structure of Bitcoin continues to widen.

Cryptocurrency investment firm and index fund manager Bitwise believes that even after a slump over the past two months, Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high again in 2026. The company's CEO Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, where three years of significant gains are followed by a year of deep correction.According to this cyclical pattern, 2026 should be a correction year. However, we believe this will not happen. In our view, the core forces that have historically driven the four-year cycle—Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and the boom and bust of the crypto market driven by leverage—have significantly weakened compared to past cycles.Halving effect: By definition, each subsequent Bitcoin halving is only half as significant as the previous one. Interest rate environment: Interest rates rose sharply in 2018 and 2022, suppressing prices; however, we expect rates to decline in 2026. Risk of bubble burst: Following the record liquidations in October 2025, the relative contraction of leverage and improved regulation have reduced the likelihood of a major market crash.More importantly, the wave of institutional funds that began after the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024 will accelerate in 2026. At that time, platforms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch will begin asset allocation. Meanwhile, the crypto market is expected to start benefiting from the pro-crypto regulatory shift following the 2024 U.S. elections, with Wall Street and fintech companies beginning to truly adopt cryptocurrencies. It is anticipated that the combined effects of these factors will drive Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high.

According to the official announcement, Bittensor has completed its first halving event in history, reducing the daily token output from 7200 TAO to 3600 TAO.

According to Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still exists, but its main driving factors are no longer halving, but rather political factors, liquidity environment, and election cycles.The Bitcoin market reached historical peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. This year, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, Bitcoin has not regained strong upward momentum. The reason is that institutional investors have become the dominant force in the crypto market but are making more cautious decisions. With the Federal Reserve's policy signals still wavering and overall liquidity tightening, the pace of capital inflow has noticeably slowed, weakening the momentum needed for sustained price breakthroughs. Before liquidity improves significantly, Bitcoin is more likely to maintain range-bound fluctuations and sideways consolidation rather than quickly entering a new parabolic uptrend.

According to The Block, Grayscale research analyst Will Ogden Moore stated: "Bitcoin's history shows that even with reduced rewards, a decrease in supply can enhance network value, as Bitcoin's network security and market value have been strengthened through four consecutive halvings. Similarly, Bittensor's first halving marks an important milestone in the network's maturation as it moves towards a supply cap of 21 million tokens."Moore noted that Bittensor is currently experiencing strong adoption momentum, with institutional interest on the rise. Moore pointed out that the dTAO launched in February this year is a significant achievement for Bittensor. This mechanism allows subnets to be directly invested in, leading to a substantial expansion of the total market capitalization of these subnets. Moore wrote: "We believe that the early success of certain subnet-based applications, the increase of institutional capital in the Bittensor ecosystem, and the upcoming TAO supply halving could all serve as positive catalysts for driving prices higher."Previously, it was reported that Bittensor will experience its first halving on December 14, when the daily issuance of TAO will be reduced to 3,600 tokens.

According to Cointelegraph, the AI project Bittensor will experience its first halving on December 14, when the daily issuance of TAO will decrease from 7,200 to 3,600.Bittensor is a decentralized open-source machine learning network built around specialized "subnets," creating a market for AI services through incentive mechanisms. Grayscale Research analyst William Ogden Moore described this event as a "key milestone in the network's maturation," as Bittensor moves towards a capped supply of 21 million tokens, adopting a fixed supply model similar to that of Bitcoin.

JPMorgan has launched a structured note linked to BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), which aligns with the four-year halving cycle of BTC.If IBIT reaches or exceeds the set price by the end of 2026, investors will receive a guaranteed minimum return of 16%; if the price is below the set value, the note will extend to 2028, providing potential amplified return opportunities. The note offers some downside protection; if IBIT's decline does not exceed 30% in 2028, investors can recover their principal; if the decline exceeds 30%, losses will be proportional to the decline. This product is suitable for investors optimistic about BTC's cyclical trends, but related risks should be noted.

According to CoinDesk, MARA Holdings CEO Fred Thiel stated that the Bitcoin mining industry is entering a difficult period, with increasing competition, rising energy demands, and shrinking profits. He noted that Bitcoin mining is a zero-sum game, where increased hash power raises mining difficulty and energy costs, compressing profit margins.The industry is becoming increasingly brutal, and only mining companies that secure low-cost, reliable energy or adopt new business models will survive. Many mining companies are turning to artificial intelligence or high-performance computing infrastructure, while some are being pushed out of the market by participants deploying their own hardware at low costs. Thiel warned that after the next Bitcoin halving in 2028, the survival environment for mining companies will be even harsher, with block rewards dropping to just above 1.5 Bitcoins. Unless transaction fees rise or coin prices soar, the mining economy will struggle to sustain itself.The design philosophy of Bitcoin is that transaction fees will eventually replace block subsidies, but this has not happened. Currently, transaction fees are generally low, and although there have been brief spikes, they cannot replace block subsidies. In this environment, small mining companies are under immense pressure. Large mining companies are adapting by controlling energy sources and investing in AI-specific infrastructure, while more streamlined mining companies may be forced to shut down.Thiel expects the market to self-regulate, stating, "By 2028, mining companies will either become power producers, be acquired by power producers, or collaborate with power producers."

According to Decrypt, SynFutures CEO Rachel Lin stated, "The October decline may lay the groundwork for the next upward phase of the Bitcoin bull market, as such pullbacks are often the midpoint of a larger cycle rather than the endpoint." Historical data also supports this optimistic interpretation, with Bitcoin's average return in the third quarter still being positive at 6.05%.It is also noteworthy that November has historically been one of the strongest months for Bitcoin, with an average return of up to 42% over the past 12 years. Rachel Lin mentioned, "For November, I expect a period of stability with cautiously optimistic sentiment. Bitcoin may trade sideways at the beginning of the month as the market digests the Federal Reserve's remarks, but once there is a clear shift in policy tone, it could trigger a rebound." She also stated that if Bitcoin continues to follow the typical post-halving trend, "it is still possible for Bitcoin to rise to $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025," citing solid fundamentals such as ETF fund flows to institutional custody solutions.

According to 4E observations, the traditional volatility pattern of Bitcoin after halving may be failing. Data shows that the current Bitcoin volatility is below 2%, reaching a historic low, while during the third halving period in 2020, volatility once exceeded 5%. Keiji Maeda, an executive at Japanese crypto company BACKSEAT, pointed out that as market liquidity increases and institutional participation rises, the impact of individual investors' short-term behavior on prices diminishes, and the so-called "post-halving pullback" rule of thumb may no longer apply.On the EU front, the European Commission is planning to expand central regulation of stock and crypto asset exchanges. The new proposal will grant the European Securities and Markets Authority greater powers, covering "the most important cross-border entities" to promote the construction of a "Capital Markets Union" and reduce regulatory fragmentation. The relevant proposal is expected to be formally presented in December.On the other hand, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor stated that the company has no plans to acquire other Bitcoin asset reserve companies, noting that such mergers and acquisitions typically involve high uncertainty and long cycles.In terms of investment institutions, the latest top 15 holdings of Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF show that crypto-related companies like Coinbase (5.8%) and Circle (2.55%) have significant weights, indicating continued bets in the new round of technology and digital asset cycles.4E Commentary: Bitcoin entering a historically low volatility range may indicate that the market structure has shifted from being speculation-driven to a stable capital state. If EU regulatory integration and institutional allocation trends progress simultaneously, crypto assets may gradually enter a "low volatility steady bull" phase.

According to Coingecko data, Zcash (ZEC) has a market capitalization exceeding $7 billion, currently reaching $7,010,784,529, setting a new all-time high, with a 24-hour increase of 10.9%.It is reported that Zcash is about to undergo a halving, with a significant decrease in issuance expected.

According to Coingecko data, Zcash (ZEC) has a market capitalization exceeding 7 billion USD, currently reaching 7,024,688,989 USD, setting a new all-time high, with a 24-hour increase of 18.9%.It is reported that Zcash is about to undergo a halving, and the issuance is expected to decrease significantly.

ChainCatcher news, according to the latest data from Coingecko, the market capitalization of Zcash's native token ZEC has surpassed 6 billion USD, currently reported at 6,038,447,911 USD, setting a new historical high. ZEC is currently priced at 370.24 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 28%. It is reported that Zcash is expected to undergo a halving next month, with a significant decrease in issuance anticipated.

ChainCatcher news, according to Coingecko data, Zcash's market capitalization has surpassed 5 billion USD, currently reported at 5,001,241,986 USD, setting a new historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 12.2%. It is reported that Zcash is expected to undergo a halving next month, with a significant decrease in issuance anticipated.

ChainCatcher message, VanEck's Head of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel stated that we have always believed that Bitcoin's market cap should reach about half of gold's after the next halving.About half of gold's value comes from its function as a store of value, rather than industrial or jewelry demand. Surveys show that young consumers in emerging markets are increasingly inclined to use Bitcoin for this purpose. Based on today's record-high gold price, this means the equivalent value of each Bitcoin is approximately $644,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, crypto analyst PlanC posted on the X platform stating that anyone who thinks Bitcoin will peak in the fourth quarter of this year does not understand statistics or probability. From a statistical and probability perspective, this is akin to flipping a coin and getting tails three times in a row, then betting all your money that the fourth flip will definitely be tails. However, relying on the previous three halving cycles does not provide enough statistically significant data.Today, with the rise of Bitcoin funding companies and a large influx of capital into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the halving cycle is no longer relevant to Bitcoin. Aside from psychological self-fulfilling prophecies, there are no fundamental reasons to explain why Bitcoin would peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.

ChainCatcher news, Wang Feng, the founder of Blueport Interactive, tweeted: "I personally believe that Bitcoin has detached itself from its halving cycle and has entered the U.S. stock market and the overall economic cycle. Currently, it seems that Ethereum and the crypto wave behind it are also increasingly likely to exhibit a similar trend, but further observation is still needed."