Scan to download
BTC $75,715.78 +1.44%
ETH $2,356.12 +0.79%
BNB $633.76 +2.01%
XRP $1.45 +2.36%
SOL $88.20 +3.43%
TRX $0.3241 -0.89%
DOGE $0.0990 +2.37%
ADA $0.2584 +3.73%
BCH $450.41 +2.44%
LINK $9.55 +2.52%
HYPE $43.79 -2.68%
AAVE $116.34 +8.97%
SUI $1.00 +2.62%
XLM $0.1692 +4.81%
ZEC $334.31 -2.61%
BTC $75,715.78 +1.44%
ETH $2,356.12 +0.79%
BNB $633.76 +2.01%
XRP $1.45 +2.36%
SOL $88.20 +3.43%
TRX $0.3241 -0.89%
DOGE $0.0990 +2.37%
ADA $0.2584 +3.73%
BCH $450.41 +2.44%
LINK $9.55 +2.52%
HYPE $43.79 -2.68%
AAVE $116.34 +8.97%
SUI $1.00 +2.62%
XLM $0.1692 +4.81%
ZEC $334.31 -2.61%

k33

K33: Bitcoin enters the "late bear market zone," market signals are similar to the bottom in late 2022

According to market news, research and brokerage firm K33 stated that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivative positions, and ETF fund flows are highly similar to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, indicating a potential long-term consolidation rather than a rapid rebound.K33's research director Vetle Lunde noted that their proprietary indicators show a "striking similarity" between the current situation and September and November 2022 (close to the bear market bottom). However, historical experience suggests that market bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation, with an average 90-day return of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 28% since January, with the funding rate being negative for 11 consecutive days, and open interest falling below 260,000 BTC, as long positions are being liquidated.Spot trading volume decreased by 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, with Bitcoin ETP holdings decreasing by 103,113 BTC from last October's peak, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating that institutions are primarily reducing exposure rather than completely exiting.The Fear and Greed Index recently hit a historical low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return from buying during extreme fear periods is only 2.4%, far lower than the 95% during extreme greed periods, suggesting that fear does not reliably predict a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the range of $60,000 to $75,000 for an extended period, noting that the current entry point is attractive but requires patience.

K33 Research: Bullish on 2026, predicting Bitcoin will outperform stock indices and gold

The K33 Research report titled "2025 Annual Review" indicates that 2025 will be a year where the fundamentals and price performance of cryptocurrencies are severely disconnected. Despite the U.S. establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, the Trump administration promoting the inclusion of digital assets in 401(k) plans through executive orders, and a regulatory shift brought about by changes in SEC leadership, Bitcoin underperformed mainstream assets like U.S. stocks and gold due to large-scale profit-taking by early holders (OGs) and adjustments in market structure, all while volatility hit historic lows.K33 Research holds a constructive bullish outlook for 2026, predicting that Bitcoin will outperform stock indices and gold, believing that the positive effects of regulatory victories will outweigh the impacts of capital allocation. On a macro level, it is expected that Trump will appoint a dovish Federal Reserve chair to replace tightening policies with expansionary ones, creating an "abundant" environment that will benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin. In terms of regulation, the "Clarity Act" is expected to pass in the first quarter of 2026, with broader cryptocurrency legislation also anticipated to be signed at the beginning of the year.The institutional side is set to explode: Morgan Stanley plans to allow advisors to allocate 0-4% of Bitcoin ETFs for clients starting January 1, 2026, and E*Trade's retail crypto trading is expected to launch in the first half of 2026. In terms of specific data predictions, net inflows into ETFs in 2026 are expected to exceed those of 2025; on the corporate finance side, it is predicted that MicroStrategy will not sell its Bitcoin (although it may be removed from the MSCI index), with the overall corporate finance net absorption expected to be 150,000 BTC, a decrease of 330,000 BTC year-on-year; supply-side predictions suggest that the supply of Bitcoin held for over two years will end its downward trend, rebounding to over 12.16 million BTC by the end of the year, with early selling pressure dissipating and turning into net buyer demand.Additionally, with the opening of 401(k) plans, the market will see a huge potential buying demand based on different allocation weights of 1% to 5%.

K33: The selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is nearing saturation, and the distribution cycle may be coming to an end

The research and brokerage firm K33 stated in a report released yesterday that the selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is approaching a saturation phase, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to gradually ease.K33's research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that since 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years has been continuously declining, with approximately 1.6 million BTC reactivated and flowing into the market, valued at about $138 billion at current prices, reflecting ongoing on-chain sales by early holders. Lunde believes that this scale has clearly exceeded what can be explained by technical migration or structural adjustments, indicating substantial distribution behavior.The report states that 2024 and 2025 will become the second and third highest years for the re-circulation of long-term supply in Bitcoin's history, second only to 2017. Unlike the distribution cycle back then driven by ICOs, altcoin trading, and incentive mechanisms, this round of selling is more about long-term holders directly realizing deep liquidity gains in response to the demand from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs and corporate financial needs.Looking ahead, K33 expects the selling pressure to gradually diminish. Lunde noted that about 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to approach saturation. The supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years may end the current downward trend by 2026 and exceed the current level of approximately 12.16 million BTC. Additionally, K33 pointed out the potential asset allocation rebalancing effect that may occur at the end of the quarter and the beginning of the new quarter. Given that Bitcoin has significantly underperformed other assets in the fourth quarter, funds with fixed allocation ratios may be reallocated at the end of the year and early next year, potentially bringing phased capital inflows to the market.

K33 Analyst: Bitcoin's performance in Q4 significantly lags behind the stock market, which may indicate a positive trend in January

According to CoinDesk, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that as the year-end approaches, Bitcoin may benefit from asset managers adjusting their portfolios to maintain established asset allocation ratios, given that Bitcoin has underperformed compared to other asset classes this quarter. Earlier this year, Bitcoin underperformed the S&P 500 in the first quarter, then began to rise in the second quarter.In contrast, when Bitcoin outperformed stocks in the second quarter, it saw a decline at the beginning of the third quarter. So far, Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by as much as 26% in the fourth quarter, indicating that a significant rebalancing is imminent. Lunde mentioned that fund managers with established Bitcoin allocation targets may adjust their positions before the end of the year, potentially leading to substantial inflows on the last trading day of this year and early January of next year.He also noted that despite price stabilization, market participants remain reluctant to take on new risks. Derivatives trading activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is nearing annual lows, with Bitcoin futures open interest at about 124,000 contracts; the funding rates in the perpetual contract market are close to neutral, and there are small changes in open interest, indicating a lack of short-term directional confidence. Last week, spot cryptocurrency trading volume dropped by 12%, further confirming low trader participation as the year-end approaches.
app_icon
ChainCatcher Building the Web3 world with innovations.