mid

According to the Financial Times, an analysis of campaign finance records shows that the cryptocurrency and AI industries have raised approximately $250 million over the past year to support congressional candidates in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November.A16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz donated a total of $25 million in February to the pro-AI Super PAC "Leading The Future." The organization has raised about $75 million from billionaires, including the two mentioned above and OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman; when including "dark money" non-profits that do not disclose their donors, that figure rises to $140 million. The largest Super PAC in the crypto industry, Fairshake, has raised over $134 million on its own.In January, Cantor Fitzgerald, a Wall Street firm previously led by current U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and now managed by his son Brandon, which has a partnership with Tether, donated $10 million to the pro-crypto Super PAC Fellowship; the parent company of the major crypto platform, Anchor Labs, also added a $1 million donation to Fellowship PAC. Elon Musk donated $1.6 million to his America PAC in March, significantly reducing his involvement compared to 2024, when he invested over $250 million across various PACs.Anthropic has pledged $20 million to the non-profit Public First Action, which has redirected some of the funds to a Super PAC to influence the 2026 elections. The company holds a relatively unique position in the industry, explicitly calling for the establishment of strict federal AI safety regulations, which diverges from the majority of participants in the AI industry.

According to The Hill, the White House seems eager to push for a resolution to the dispute between the banking industry and the cryptocurrency sector, a dispute that has hindered Senate negotiations on the legislation since the beginning of this year. Key officials both inside and outside the U.S. government—from Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen to White House crypto advisor Patrick Witte, and former head of AI and crypto affairs David Sacks—have recently called for the passage of the bill.At the same time, the Council of Economic Advisers released a report that countered the relevant concerns of the banking industry. However, it is still unclear whether the White House's push is sufficient to overcome the issues plaguing the bill, which are not limited to the narrow industry disputes that have dominated discussions over the past three months. Christopher Neuber, a senior research analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors, stated in an interview, "From a timing perspective, their judgment is reasonable—if Congress has the opportunity to push the market structure bill through, now is that opportunity."

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve pointed out in the Beige Book released on April 16 that economic activity in most regions of the United States continues to grow at a moderate to slight pace amid a new round of uncertainty triggered by the war in Iran and rising energy costs. Overall price increases remain moderate, but energy and fuel costs have risen significantly across all 12 Federal Reserve districts. The report indicates that the Middle East conflict is seen as a major source of uncertainty, increasing the complexity of businesses' decisions regarding hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many businesses adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The data is as of April 6 and reflects the initial impact of the war on the U.S. economy.

According to Jinshi reports, the International Monetary Fund stated that if the Middle East war continues, asset prices may further decline significantly.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that in light of the Middle East conflict causing turmoil in financial markets, a cautious response is necessary.

According to Cointelegraph, Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and cryptocurrency market analyst, stated that Bitcoin's current recovery is relatively weak. The geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures caused by the Middle East war will dominate the market trends in the second quarter of 2026, with interest rate cuts expected no earlier than the third or fourth quarter. He pointed out that for BTC to reach $90,000, three conditions must be met: easing geopolitical tensions, oil prices falling back to around $80, and weakening economic data.Currently, BTC is priced at approximately $71,276, facing resistance at $74,000, and still operating below the 200-day exponential moving average. Previously, BTC rose above $73,000 on April 6 but fell back due to the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations and Trump's announcement to block the Strait of Hormuz. There are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve FOMC regarding interest rate cuts in 2026, and CME Fedwatch data shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the meetings on April 29 and June 17 is over 98%.

According to CoinDesk, affected by the situation in the Middle East, Binance is offering its employees in the UAE the option to temporarily relocate to Hong Kong, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, and Bangkok.A Binance spokesperson stated, "In light of the recent regional tensions, we are providing our employees with the option for temporary relocation as a precautionary measure prioritizing employee welfare, to offer flexibility and support during uncertain times." The spokesperson also mentioned that many employees are currently choosing to stay in the UAE, and the company's operations in the UAE remain normal.It is reported that Binance has about 1,000 employees in the UAE, accounting for 20% of its global workforce, and the company's global operations are also supported from Abu Dhabi. This relocation proposal comes after the signing of a ceasefire agreement. The regional conflict, which lasted for about six weeks, has impacted business activities in the UAE. Since the outbreak of the conflict in late February, the UAE has intercepted hundreds of missiles and drones, with another interception occurring on April 8.The conflict in the Middle East has affected several cryptocurrency and major events in the UAE: the TOKEN2049 Dubai summit has been postponed to 2027, the TON Gateway has been canceled due to safety and travel concerns, the Middle East Energy Dubai Exhibition and the Dubai International Boat Show have been postponed, and the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia F1 events, which have sponsorship exposure value for the crypto industry, are also facing cancellation.

Driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly instructed to initiate negotiations with Lebanon, following Trump's request for Israel to reduce military actions to maintain the ceasefire process. After the news was released, Bitcoin quickly surged by about 3%, currently reported at approximately $72,300, with a 24-hour increase of about 2%, significantly outperforming mainstream crypto assets; Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all saw increases of less than 1%. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks also stopped their decline and rebounded, while oil prices fell back from their intraday highs.It is noteworthy that there has been a clear divergence in the movements of Bitcoin and tech stocks, with their 20-day rolling correlation coefficient dropping to about 0.34, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from tech stocks and is more driven by macro geopolitical factors and risk aversion sentiment.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that most officials believe that the developments in the Middle East have increased economic risks.

According to Gate market data, tensions in the Middle East have eased, and Nasdaq futures have increased by 2%. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil has plummeted by 11%, falling below the $100 mark, and gold has risen by 1.6%.

According to Jinshi reports, BlackRock strategists stated in a report that the impact of high energy prices is likely to be reflected in the U.S. March CPI data released on Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal generally expect the seasonally unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for March in the U.S. to rise from 2.4% in February to 3.3%. Strategists noted that the war in the Middle East has caused supply chain bottlenecks, which are expected to drive up inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva stated that the Middle East war will lead to increased inflation and may slow down global economic growth.

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee stated that since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, Ethereum has become the second-best performing asset, with Bitcoin ranking third, and both have significantly outperformed the stock market.He pointed out that current war spending is about $30 billion per month and could rise to a scale of $100 billion in the future; in contrast, the impact of rising energy prices on consumers is relatively limited—each $10 increase in oil prices corresponds to about $4 billion to $5 billion per month in consumer pressure.Tom Lee believes that against the backdrop of high fiscal spending and energy volatility, the allocation value of crypto assets as "liquidity and risk assets" is rising.

According to Jinshi reports, as market expectations rise that the United States will launch more military strikes against Iran, the dollar index has risen during the Asian afternoon trading session. Two analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Global Economic and Market Research Department stated that the U.S. is doubling the size of its A-10 attack aircraft fleet in the Middle East, and the mobilization of military assets and troops has increased the likelihood of a ground invasion. Based on the dollar's safe-haven status, analysts remain optimistic about its trend.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Schmid stated that rising energy prices will drive up inflation, including core inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Schmid said that we cannot assume that the inflation brought about by rising oil prices is temporary.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid stated that the Iran war is likely to further exacerbate inflationary pressures.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid stated that inflation is a more prominent risk for the Fed and that inflation expectations cannot be taken lightly.

Market maker Wintermute's latest market weekly report indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin perpetual contract trading volume to spot trading volume has risen to 15 times, while the funding rate volatility has dropped to a low point in this cycle, showing that market leverage is high but there is insufficient directional consensus. The current structure is closer to "compression and accumulation," or brewing significant unilateral volatility.Wintermute believes that if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall back to around $100, short positions will face the risk of being squeezed to between $70,000 and $74,000. If the situation continues to ease, the resistance level at $74,000 may be tested.Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices rise to $120, oil prices could drop to just above $60, and if the cyclical trend is similar, it could fall to the mid-high $50,000 range. More macro-wise, the directionality here is not important; what matters is the market structure itself. The leverage on futures contracts is high, capital flows are fluctuating within the narrowest range ever recorded, and volatility is also narrowing.Regarding which direction the catalysts ultimately develop, the market structure indicates that the resulting volatility will far exceed the levels currently reflected in spot, futures, and options prices.