momentum

According to Santiment monitoring, small retail traders are actively selling their holdings of Ethereum (ETH), with wallets holding 0.01 ETH or less having reduced their holdings by a total of 1,791 ETH (approximately 4.16 million USD) in the past two days. The market generally views the 17% increase since March 29 as a "Bull Trap," and this sentiment has actually strengthened the likelihood of a continued bullish momentum.

BIT released a chart today stating that cryptocurrency spot trading volume has significantly declined, with the average daily trading amount dropping from $41 billion in December 2024 to $26.6 billion in October 2025, and in the past 30 days it has fallen to only $8 billion.Spot trading volume is a key indicator of altcoin performance, reflecting market participation and risk appetite. The current contraction in trading activity helps explain the continued weakness of altcoins: sluggish trading activity translates into lackluster price trends and worsening market sentiment. For any sustained altcoin rally to truly kick off, a substantial rebound in trading volume is necessary.In the absence of clear catalysts, the likelihood of a broad-based rally is low. Current trading volume is concentrating on a few assets, and overall market participation remains relatively low.

According to Jinshi reports, as market expectations rise that the United States will launch more military strikes against Iran, the dollar index has risen during the Asian afternoon trading session. Two analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Global Economic and Market Research Department stated that the U.S. is doubling the size of its A-10 attack aircraft fleet in the Middle East, and the mobilization of military assets and troops has increased the likelihood of a ground invasion. Based on the dollar's safe-haven status, analysts remain optimistic about its trend.

According to official news, $U has officially landed on SunSwap V4, with liquidity pools fully open and trading functions enabled simultaneously. As an important step in the diversification process of the TRON ecosystem, the integration of $U not only expands the on-chain asset options for the community but also further enhances network liquidity and ecological depth. Experience $U exchange through SunSwap V4 now and explore more possibilities for decentralized trading.

On-chain data platform Glassnode posted on X platform, stating that the current Bitcoin price is at the lower end of the cost range for new investors ($60,000 - $70,000). Data shows that there has been a certain degree of accumulation within this range, but the overall scale is still below the typical levels that have historically driven strong rebounds, indicating relatively weak chip density.The current accumulation structure has constructive significance in form, but is still insufficient in strength and has not yet formed a clear upward momentum signal.

Research institution 10x Research published on platform X, pointing out that Bittensor (TAO) is experiencing strong momentum driven by both AI narratives and ecological expansion. The current price of TAO has surpassed the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, with technical indicators showing dual bullish signals. In the past week, it has increased by 19.8%, and the staking scale of subnet has exceeded 620 million dollars, with the number of active subnets expanding to 128.On the news front, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang mentioned Bittensor in a well-known podcast, while Grayscale reiterated this week that the Bittensor Trust private placement subscription is now open to qualified investors, further strengthening institutional endorsement.

JPMorgan stated that under the backdrop of ETF fund outflows, deteriorating liquidity, and institutional deleveraging, gold and silver are under pressure, while Bitcoin shows greater resilience and relatively stable capital inflows.Gold ETFs recorded nearly $11 billion in net outflows in the three weeks leading up to March, and there was also a significant withdrawal of funds related to silver. Coupled with rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar, this has pushed precious metal prices lower. Meanwhile, Bitcoin funds continue to maintain net inflows, and market momentum is gradually improving. In terms of price performance, Bitcoin initially fell to the $60,000 range alongside risk assets at the onset of geopolitical conflicts but quickly stabilized thereafter, currently oscillating between $68,000 and $70,000, indicating that long-term capital is re-entering the market to support prices after the panic. Additionally, position and momentum data have also diverged, with institutional positions in gold and silver futures significantly declining since the beginning of the year, while Bitcoin futures positions have remained stable overall. Trend-following funds have shifted from "overbought" in precious metals to below neutral levels, exacerbating their downward pressure; Bitcoin, on the other hand, has rebounded from the oversold range, with selling pressure easing. Liquidity indicators show that the breadth of the gold market has fallen below that of Bitcoin, and silver liquidity has further weakened. JPMorgan believes that this change highlights Bitcoin's gradually emerging performance characteristics that differ from traditional safe-haven assets in the current macro and geopolitical environment.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin's performance last week showed significant divergence. Although it briefly rose to a high of $76,000, it subsequently fell back due to the impact of PPI data, statements from the Federal Reserve, and tensions in the Middle East, with a weekend low of around $68,000.Despite the increased short-term volatility, Bitcoin overall remains above its opening price, while the S&P 500 index has shown more fluctuations. Market analysis suggests that if bulls have enough confidence to push the price above the $72,000 range, there may be an "air gap" between $72,000 and $82,000 above, which is a relatively sparse area of transactions and resistance, allowing for a potential rapid price increase.The current market focus is on whether macro data and geopolitical situations will continue to disrupt the performance of risk assets, and whether Bitcoin can re-establish sustained upward momentum to return to previous high ranges.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler posted on the X platform that the Coinbase premium index has rebounded from the previously negative range reflecting a collapse in demand from U.S. investors to a neutral to weak level. However, this indicator has not yet stabilized in the positive range, indicating that comprehensive bullish momentum from U.S. investors has not yet been confirmed, and market sentiment remains cautious.

According to Cointelegraph, although the price of Bitcoin has fallen below $71,000, data shows that its bullish momentum has not faded.Bitcoin fell 7% after reaching $76,000 on Tuesday, due to rising oil prices from Israel's attack on Iranian gas facilities and the U.S. PPI exceeding expectations, causing U.S. stocks to decline simultaneously. Analysts point out that the continued buying of U.S.-listed ETFs and strategies provides spot demand support for Bitcoin. The leverage level for Bitcoin bulls is low, and even if the price drops another 5%, the risk of a cascading liquidation is minimal.Rising inflation concerns negatively impact fixed income returns, paving the way for funds to eventually rotate from gold to Bitcoin. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remained below the neutral range when the price broke through $76,000, indicating that the upward trend is driven by spot demand rather than derivative speculation. Gold prices have shown signs of fatigue, and if funds flow out of gold, it could become a catalyst for Bitcoin's continued rise.

As AI agents become increasingly active on the blockchain, AINFT is accelerating to become the core entry point connecting users with artificial intelligence. As a key infrastructure that bridges on-chain payments and digital identity, AINFT enables AI entities built on the TRON network to truly achieve usability and accessibility.TRON has officially joined the Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation as a gold member and serves on the management committee, promoting the construction of open infrastructure for agent-based AI.Leveraging TRON's strategic layout within AAIF, AINFT will further integrate globally leading AI collaborative resources to provide more comprehensive on-chain payment and identity verification support for decentralized AI applications, effectively driving AI agents from experimental exploration to large-scale production applications.

Boosted by the lower-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a short-term increase of about 4%, with BTC/USD reaching as high as $68,855 on Bitstamp. Official data shows that the core CPI for January was in line with expectations at 2.5%, while the overall CPI was 2.4%, below the market expectation of 2.5%.Trading analysts pointed out that this is the lowest level of core CPI in years, and market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased. However, CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the March meeting is still less than 10%. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin still faces pressure in the $68,000-$69,000 range, which carries the historical high from 2021 and the 200-week EMA. Analysts believe that BTC is likely to form a higher low in this area; although it is weak in the short term, market momentum may gradually recover. In other markets, gold attempts to return to $5,000 per ounce, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has slightly rebounded, while U.S. stocks closed slightly lower.

Tom Lee stated during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday that the sell-off in the crypto market may be gradually losing momentum. "All the conditions are in place, and cryptocurrencies may currently be bottoming out," Lee said, adding that he believes the fundamentals of the crypto industry remain strong, particularly emphasizing the increasingly active activity on the Ethereum network. "If that's the case, crypto asset prices should rebound accordingly," Lee said.As of the time of writing, Ethereum has rebounded more than 10% from its earlier low of $2157 today, now priced at $2383.

According to the market analysis weekly report released by Glassnode on Monday, the fund flow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has sharply reversed, showing strong capital inflows, indicating that institutions are re-accumulating positions.Although ETF trading volume has risen accordingly, the increase in holder profits also brings short-term profit-taking risks. Bitcoin has retreated from a recent high of $98,000 to just over $90,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declining but still above neutral levels, indicating it is in a consolidation phase rather than a trend deterioration phase.Spot trading volume has risen moderately, and the net buying and selling imbalance has broken through the upper limit of the statistical range, showing a significant reduction in selling pressure, but demand still appears weak. The slight increase in open interest in futures reflects cautious rebuilding of speculative activity, while the sharp drop in funding rates indicates a decrease in urgency among bulls.The options market continues to price in higher uncertainty, with ongoing demand for downside protection. On-chain activity has stabilized, with the number of active addresses and transfer volumes showing improvement trends, and network fees have risen slightly. The supply from short-term holders remains high, keeping the market sensitive to price fluctuations.Overall, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, but the strengthening buying power and the return of institutional interest are gradually pushing the market structure towards a more constructive direction.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid stated that the current monetary policy is not very tight, and the economy is showing signs of growth.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin briefly rose above $92,000 on Monday due to a criminal investigation by U.S. federal prosecutors into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Analysts are questioning whether the independence of the Federal Reserve might be compromised, which could benefit alternative assets like Bitcoin that are considered scarce.Although this news triggered a brief surge, traders remain cautious overall, primarily influenced by ongoing outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and weak demand for bullish leverage. Even with a recent rebound, Bitcoin is still down about 23% from its peak in October 2025, while gold and silver reached all-time highs in 2026. This divergence in trends has led traders to start questioning whether the narrative of "Bitcoin as a digital store of value" is weakening.The annualized premium of Bitcoin futures (i.e., basis) remains at a neutral to bearish level of about 5%. Generally, when market sentiment truly turns bullish, the premium of Bitcoin futures relative to spot often reaches or exceeds 10%. More importantly, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $1.38 billion over four consecutive trading days.Even more concerning is that despite Strategy increasing its holdings of Bitcoin worth approximately $1.25 billion over the past month, the price of Bitcoin has still failed to effectively hold above $94,000. Overall, the appeal of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies remains sluggish, as reflected in ETF fund flows and weak demand for Bitcoin long positions. This indicates that the probability of an unexpected surge to $105,000 in the short term is relatively low.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has fallen back to near its opening price at the beginning of the year after rising close to $95,000, and there is even a possibility of dropping below $90,000 within the daily trading timeframe. Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource platform Material Indicators, stated, "Bitcoin's initial breakout attempt has been clearly rejected." He warned this week that bearish forces are at play on higher timeframes. He pointed out that the technical support to watch is concentrated in the $87,500 to $89,000 range.Alan also stated, "With a macro death cross appearing on the weekly chart later this month, I believe any rebound that occurs next should be viewed as a 'high sell event,' unless there is evidence to suggest otherwise." Trader Roman, who has repeatedly warned of macro downside risks for Bitcoin in 2025, reiterated that the short-term target is $76,000, a price last seen in April of this year. Roman said, "Currently around $89,000, the downside continues. I still believe $76,000 will come; all this consolidation is just to reach that position for a reset. I don't see any signs of reversal, and the higher timeframe remains very bearish."

Binance Research pointed out in its cryptocurrency market report that despite the Federal Reserve's easing policies, the cryptocurrency market continues to decline due to cautious investor sentiment. However, as asset management companies continue to increase their holdings, the market dominance of Bitcoin and Ethereum is steadily strengthening. January may become a turning point for bearish momentum, as investors consider reallocating from overvalued asset classes back into cryptocurrencies.In 2025, driven by factors such as monetary easing, AI demand, and a shift towards "commodity control," metals emerged as a standout asset class. Although Bitcoin also benefited from similar macro-positive factors, its performance in the fourth quarter showed divergence due to a lack of "strategic asset premium." However, this divergence may be temporary: as U.S. legislation pushes to institutionalize strategic Bitcoin reserves and potentially shifts from holding seized assets to active fiscal procurement, the valuation framework for Bitcoin is expected to realign with that of strategic metals.Market participants expect that due to tariff shocks, a weak labor market, and a leadership shift towards dovish policies, easing measures will accelerate in 2026, while demanding higher long-term premiums to compensate for "fiscal dominance" and the impending debt pressure exceeding $50 trillion. The steepening yield curve indicates that the market does not endorse the Federal Reserve's "soft landing" narrative, creating an excellent opportunity for Bitcoin to benefit from both the influx of short-term cheap liquidity and the erosion of long-term fiat credit.Since their launch, altcoin ETFs have mostly attracted net inflows, accumulating over $2 billion, with XRP and SOL leading the way, while other assets contributed smaller but steady inflows. In contrast, since October, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have consistently experienced net outflows, highlighting the divergence in marginal demand as market momentum slows.Although it is still in the early stages, the approval of more altcoin ETFs and ongoing inflows may increasingly impact liquidity distribution, especially if broader market inflows accelerate again. In 2025, six newly launched stablecoins surpassed a market capitalization of $1 billion. As stablecoins continue to be adopted globally, their related metrics are increasingly becoming important indicators of global financial activity.