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hot_img Counterpoint: If the United States bans imports of Chinese optical modules, it will backfire on domestic cloud vendors rather than just Chinese suppliers

According to Counterpoint Research analysis, if the proposed import ban on Chinese optical modules by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the United States is implemented, it will primarily impact American cloud providers rather than Chinese suppliers. InnoLight leads the global data center optical module revenue with approximately 27% market share, while Coherent ranks second with about 17%. Chinese manufacturers collectively account for about two-thirds of the global unit supply and approximately 60% of the optical communication module revenue.The analysis points out that Western suppliers like Coherent and Lumentum lack sufficient cleanroom capacity, automated packaging infrastructure, and yield scale in the short term, making it impossible to fill the capacity gap left by Chinese manufacturers within 12-24 months. This could lead to delays in AI cluster deployments by several quarters and increase material costs for cloud providers. At the same time, Chinese module manufacturers rely on high-end 800G/1.6T module revenue from North American hyperscale customers for over 90%, but have achieved partial capacity relocation by establishing factories in Thailand.Counterpoint emphasizes that the optical module supply chain is a highly interdependent system. Chinese manufacturers heavily procure DSP chips from Broadcom and Marvell, as well as lasers and optical chips from Lumentum, Coherent, and Mitsubishi Electric. A forced separation would disrupt the entire ecosystem.

NVIDIA announces the mass production of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), related concept stocks may see a rebound

Gilad Shainer, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA, announced at a recent technology forum that CPO has entered the mass production stage. The switches co-developed with the supply chain have begun delivery to closely collaborating customers and are being deployed in-house. It is expected that starting this year, switches equipped with CPO technology will be widely adopted in AI factories around the world.Shainer pointed out that the biggest opportunity in the future optical communication market lies in vertical scaling, which will require bandwidth efficiency more than ten times that of horizontal scaling. Previously, Shainer was responsible for R&D at Mellanox, and after the company was acquired by NVIDIA, he led the AI platform network transmission department and co-developed the COUPE silicon photonics packaging platform with TSMC. This announcement helps to dispel market concerns about the upgrade of optical communication specifications and boosts the operational outlook for related manufacturers.It is reported that NVIDIA has already implemented CPO on Spectrum-X, aiming to align with the upcoming large-scale deployment of the Vera Rubin AI platform (which has a computing speed at least three times faster than GB300). Trendforce estimates that the CPO/NPO market size will exceed $39 billion by 2030, with significant acceleration in growth momentum from 2028 to 2029 as optical interconnects are introduced with Scale-up.

FTC approves Musk's acquisition of Mesh antitrust application, involving AI data center optical network layout

According to the latest disclosure by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Musk has obtained antitrust approval for the acquisition of the optical network startup Mesh Optical Technologies, which means the FTC has completed a rapid antitrust review and will not challenge the transaction on competitive grounds, clearing a major regulatory hurdle for the advancement of the deal. However, it has not yet been disclosed whether the transaction has been signed or completed.Mesh was founded by former SpaceX engineers, and its core product is optical transceivers for AI data centers, which can improve energy efficiency, reduce latency, and enhance reliability compared to traditional network hardware, in order to meet the demand for millions of optical connections brought about by the growth of AI computing clusters. The founding team was involved in the development of the laser communication system for SpaceX's Starlink satellite network and plans to deploy optical communication technology into space in the future, adapting to the inter-satellite laser communication needs of orbital data centers and AI satellite networks. The company completed over $50 million in financing led by Thrive Capital in February of this year.Acquiring Mesh is one of SpaceX's initiatives to strengthen the competitiveness of large-scale computing clusters. Currently, SpaceX has listed AI computing power as a core business segment, and its xAI has been operating a total of approximately 1GW computing power with the Colossus and Colossus II training clusters, making it the first company to deploy coherent gigawatt-level AI training clusters; among them, Colossus II will add over 400MW of computing power and introduce over 220,000 GB300 chips. It has signed computing power cooperation agreements with Anthropic, Google, Reflection AI, and others, directly competing with large-scale cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. This year, SpaceX has also reached a Terafab chip manufacturing plan with Tesla and Intel, extending its vertical integration capabilities in chip design and manufacturing.In the past week, SpaceX's stock price ended its upward trend, closing at $153.23 per share, down over 32% from its peak of $225.64 per share.
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