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According to The Block, Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate at high levels this week, with prices remaining above $72,000, influenced by the situation in the Middle East and U.S. CPI inflation data. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $358 million, while Ethereum funds saw an additional approximately $85 million in funding.Analysts point out that although the risk premium has decreased due to the ceasefire in the Middle East, the market has not yet returned to normal, with oil prices, interest rates, and crypto assets closely linked. The March CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, with rising energy costs being the main driver. Institutional investors remain cautious about risks, and the options market indicates that summer volatility may tend to calm down. The current Bitcoin trend is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with traders waiting for more data to determine the subsequent direction.

According to a Caixin article titled "Financial Innovation or Insider Trading: The Rise and Controversy of Polymarket," it points out that when insider information can be openly monetized, the boundaries of prediction markets have become blurred. Is this "gambling" disguised in financial clothing, or even suspected insider trading? However, regardless of the legal debate over whether it is gambling, the fact that Polymarket uses USDC stablecoin for settlement and delivery poses a significant legal risk for participants within China.Previously, U.S. Senators Merkley and Klobuchar proposed the "End Prediction Market Corruption Act," which prohibits the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from trading on prediction markets, and requires the prediction market trading activities of their spouses and dependent children to be included in annual financial disclosures.

According to the WSJ, just hours after President Trump suddenly announced a suspension of attacks on Iran last month, the White House warned staff not to abuse their power to place bets in prediction markets at the right moment. According to informed sources, the Office of Management and Budget issued this warning on March 23.Earlier that day, Trump announced the decision to suspend airstrikes via Truth Social. About 15 minutes before the sudden policy shift, there was a wave of mysterious trading activity in the futures market, with Dow Jones market data showing that contracts worth over $760 million in oil futures changed hands in less than two minutes.Recently, three accounts on the Polymarket platform profited over $600,000 by accurately predicting the timing of this week's ceasefire in Iran. Critics of Trump, including many Democrats, immediately inferred that someone had profited from having advance knowledge of the policy shift.The White House confirmed the authenticity of this warning, with Trump's spokesperson Engel stating, "The only special interest that can guide President Trump's decision-making is the best interest of the American people."

Since late October last year, the total trading volume of the Japanese compliant stablecoin JPYC has reached 137 million USD, with Polygon dominating at 66% with 90.4 million USD, followed by Avalanche and Ethereum at 26.4 million and 19.7 million USD, respectively.The founder of Polygon confirmed that Japanese physical stores have supported offline payments with JPYC on the Polygon network.

According to The Information, Polygon Labs is seeking up to $100 million in funding for its payment business expansion.

According to Chainwire, Polymarket has announced the completion of its acquisition of the DeFi infrastructure company Brahma. Brahma was co-founded by Alessandro Tenconi, Akanshu Jain, and Bapireddy Karri, and its team will continue to play key roles in infrastructure, protocol design, and product integration.This integration aims to enhance the trading reliability, execution speed, and capital efficiency of the Polymarket platform, while lowering the entry barrier for new users and improving interoperability across blockchain networks.

According to Jinshi News, at 2 AM Beijing time tonight, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the March monetary policy meeting. This document was created against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East and an increasingly complex market environment, and it will reveal how Federal Reserve officials assess supply shocks and inflationary pressures, as well as their framework for judging risk balance. Investors are advised to pay attention.

According to the official announcement, Binance is expected to suspend token deposits and withdrawals for the Polygon (POL) network on April 8, 2026, at 21:00 (UTC+8) to support its network upgrade and hard fork.The project team will carry out the network upgrade and hard fork at block height 85,268,500 (expected on April 8, 2026, at 22:00 UTC+8).

A Polymarket trader increased approximately $13,000 in funds to about $475,000 by betting on a ceasefire event between the United States and Iran, achieving a return of over 3500%.

The "contract whale" (@Jason60704294) posted on social media that it is currently a good time to position in technology assets and cryptocurrency spot assets. He believes that in the context of geopolitical disturbances, high-quality assets often provide a low-entry window, rather than waiting to chase high prices after risks have dissipated.His core judgment is that the probability of further escalation of geopolitical conflicts is limited, so he has been gradually building positions over the past month and has set key risk levels around $67,500. He emphasized that investment should focus on trends and cycles, and there is no need to pursue an absolute bottom; it is sufficient to complete positioning at relatively low levels within the cycle. With limited time and understanding, one should grasp a few key decisions.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the current policy interest rate is well-prepared to respond to market changes, and the rate is roughly within a neutral range.

The prediction market Polymarket collected approximately $7.1 million in trading fees in the first week of the second quarter, becoming one of the most profitable protocols in DeFi. If this pace continues, its annual trading fee revenue could reach about $365 million, potentially capturing 96.8% of the trading fee share in on-chain prediction markets.Analysis suggests that this growth stems from the pricing reform on March 30, maintaining daily trading fee levels at around $1 million, with trading activity remaining high. According to DeFiLlama data, Polymarket's total value locked (TVL) has reached $432 million, nearing the peak during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.In terms of mainstream partnerships, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) completed a $600 million cash investment on March 27, as part of a larger $2 billion commitment, to distribute Polymarket's event-driven data to institutional clients. The platform also replaced the USDC.e collateral on Polygon with a brand new 1:1 USDC-backed token, Polymarket USD, as a trading collateral asset.Despite rapid revenue growth, regulatory risks remain. Some U.S. states, as well as countries or regions like Hungary, Portugal, and Argentina, have imposed restrictions or bans on prediction markets, citing that Polymarket is viewed as an unlicensed gambling platform.

Wintermute released its latest weekly report, stating that the current macro situation was entirely driven by geopolitical news last week: On Tuesday, the Iranian president signaled a ceasefire, causing the S&P 500 to surge about 2.9%, and Brent crude oil fell to $105; however, on Wednesday, Trump made a tough speech, promising "extremely severe" strikes against Iran for 2-3 weeks and showing no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leading WTI crude oil to soar 11% to over $111 on Thursday, while Asian markets plummeted.On Sunday, Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants on Tuesday, while also stating that it was "very likely" an agreement would be reached before Monday. Reports indicate that a 45-day ceasefire framework is under discussion. The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.36% (up 40bp since the conflict began), and swap market pricing shows a zero probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on April 28-29. PCE data will be released on Thursday, with the market watching whether the impact of oil prices will transmit to the Fed's preferred inflation indicators.In terms of digital assets, Bitcoin only rose 2% last week, with the fear and greed index at 9 (extreme fear), and social sentiment reaching the most bearish level since the conflict began. Institutional buying remains a key support, with net inflows into ETFs in March at $1.32 billion (the strongest since October 2025), Strategy increasing its holdings by 44,000 Bitcoins, and Morgan Stanley approved to list a spot ETF at a 14bp fee rate.However, in the last week of March, ETFs turned to outflows of $414 million, and the ratio of exchange whales rose from 0.34 in January to 0.79, while over-the-counter trading data also showed institutions shifting from buying to neutral to net selling. Ethereum performed well (+4.2%), with staking yields becoming a differentiated advantage in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment.Solana dropped below $80 due to a hack of the Drift protocol (resulting in a loss of $285 million, marking the second-largest hack in Solana's history). Wintermute stated that the Tuesday deadline for the Strait of Hormuz is a critical juncture. The 45-day ceasefire framework is the most concrete de-escalation effort since the conflict began, but damage to Iranian energy facilities, Gulf refineries, and port logistics has already occurred, and even a full ceasefire cannot restore pre-war shipping capacity overnight. If the "power plant day" threat materializes on Tuesday and Iran retaliates, the risk premium for oil prices will be immediately rebuilt.

Defillama founder 0xngmi mentioned that "Polymarket will launch its native stablecoin Polymarket USD," stating that there is a total of approximately $1.25 billion in Polymarket user wallets, and if the platform is willing to retain interest income, it will generate $54 million in interest income annually at the current interest rate.

Seiji Adachi, a former policy board member of the Bank of Japan, said on Tuesday that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates before July, as the war in the Middle East has caused oil costs to soar, increasing the risk of the central bank falling behind the curve in addressing rising inflation pressures. Adachi stated that the core inflation rate has reached the central bank's target of 2%, and last week's Tankan survey showed that companies' five-year inflation expectations have reached 2.5%.He noted that the surge in oil prices and supply constraints caused by the war in Iran provide more reasons for the central bank to quickly raise its short-term policy rate from the current 0.75%. He stated, "The Bank of Japan should raise interest rates to a neutral level for the economy as soon as possible," adding that Japan's neutral interest rate may be around 1.25%. However, Adachi mentioned that the likelihood of a rate hike in April is "50%" because the war in Iran keeps the market volatile and obscures Japan's fragile economic outlook.

According to The Defiant, independent on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov's latest research found that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket are in a losing position.The report analyzed 2.5 million wallet addresses, and Sergeenkov discovered that over the past year, only 2% of traders on the platform have accumulated profits exceeding $1,000, while only 0.033% (i.e., 840 addresses) of traders have made profits of $100,000 on the Polymarket platform."Most traders just come to trade for a while and then leave," the report concluded. The research found that the probability of making $5,000 in profit per month decreases month by month. Among 6,600 traders who averaged over $5,000 in monthly profits, only 2.6% remained active for more than a year.

According to Alex Data, the total trading volume of the Japanese stablecoin JPYC has reached 136 million USD, of which 90 million USD was processed through the Polygon network. JPYC has a wide range of use cases on Polygon, primarily for payment services on platforms such as Tria, Daimo, and CurrencyCompetition.

According to official news from the Polygon Foundation, the Giugliano hard fork upgrade will take place around 22:00 on April 8 at block height 85,268,500 on the Polygon mainnet.This upgrade will bring the following improvements: allowing producers to announce blocks earlier for faster finality; directly adding fee parameters to the block header; introducing new RPC interfaces to support fee data.The official reminds all node operators that they must upgrade Bor to version v2.7.0 or upgrade Erigon to version v3.5.0 to ensure normal operation.

According to Jin Shi reports, Federal Reserve officials Harker and Goolsbee warned that the inflation situation is severe and may even be worse. They believe that the inflation issue is more serious than the employment market, suggesting support for tightening monetary policy. Goolsbee rated the inflation outlook as "orange" in an interview, while Harker pointed out that inflation has been above the target level for five consecutive years, and the current situation is "definitely a more vivid and brighter orange."

The on-chain prediction market platform Polymarket announced that it will conduct "the largest infrastructure upgrade since its launch" in the next 2-3 weeks, including a complete reconstruction of the trading engine and the launch of the native stablecoin Polymarket USD.This upgrade will introduce a brand new CTF Exchange V2 smart contract system, optimizing matching logic and order structure, improving matching efficiency, and reducing gas costs. At the same time, the platform will upgrade the Central Limit Order Book (CLOB), adopting a hybrid model of off-chain order matching + on-chain settlement.At the asset level, Polymarket will launch the native stablecoin Polymarket USD, pegged 1:1 to USDC, to replace the previous cross-chain version USDC.e on Polygon, enhancing asset security and consistency. In addition, the platform will support the EIP-1271 standard, allowing multi-signature wallets (such as Safe) to participate directly in trading, further expanding use cases for institutions and advanced users.Polymarket stated that the existing order book will be cleared during the upgrade, and the specific maintenance time will be announced one week in advance. This upgrade comes amid intensified competition in the prediction market, as the platform accelerates performance and user experience improvements.