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CryptoQuant: Short-term on-chain profit margins hit the highest since December 2024, Bitcoin may face a correction

According to a report by The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno pointed out that Bitcoin's closing price last week was above the 365-day moving average, confirming the start of a new bull market. However, Moreno stated that after Bitcoin reached an eight-month high of $87,400, several indicators show that upward momentum is weakening, and a market correction may follow.The report noted that the on-chain unrealized profit margin for short-term traders has risen to 33%, the highest level since December 2024. Historically, when profit margins are at similar levels, it often prompts traders to take profits. Data shows that on September 22, Bitcoin holders realized profits of 25,700 BTC in a single day, setting a record for the highest daily profit since 2026; the altcoin market also showed signs of selling pressure. The seven-day cumulative number of altcoin transactions rose to 76,000, the highest level since October 17, 2025. Meanwhile, spot demand continues to shrink, and the growth of futures demand has significantly slowed.After Bitcoin previously reached an eight-month high of around $87,400, the upward momentum has shown signs of fatigue. Julio Moreno indicated that if a correction occurs, the 365-day moving average (around $80,000) will serve as the primary support, followed by the 200-day moving average (around $71,000) and the on-chain realized price for traders (around $67,000). Provided that the support levels hold, this correction is more likely to be a healthy consolidation in a young bull market rather than a trend reversal.

Data: Bitcoin's second round of price increase saw profits drop by 19%, with profit-taking weaker than in August

According to Axel Adler Jr's monitoring, although the price of Bitcoin has further risen to around $87,000, the market's profit-taking pressure is weaker than in August. During the second round of price increases, profits realized were 19% lower than during the first round, and losses also decreased.At the peak of the first round of increases on August 26, the price of Bitcoin was about $78,600, with profits realized over the past 7 days reaching $9.1 billion; at the peak of the second round on September 24, the price of Bitcoin rose to $84,100, with profits realized over the past 7 days amounting to $7.3 billion, a 19% decrease from the previous round. During the same period, losses realized over the past 7 days dropped from $2.6 billion to $1.5 billion. As of today, Bitcoin's net realized profit over the past 7 days is $4.3 billion.The Short-Term Holder SOPR has remained above 1 since August 20, indicating that the overall Bitcoin transferred by short-term holders is still in profit, but the profit margin has narrowed. At the peak on August 26, the corresponding profit margin for short-term holder SOPR was 2.8%; it dropped to 1.6% at the peak on September 23; and as of today, it has further decreased to 1%. During the pullback of Bitcoin to $76,500 on September 17, the short-term holder SOPR fell to a low of 1.003, with the profit margin for short-term holders transferring Bitcoin narrowing to 0.3%, but it did not fall below 1.
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