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first_img Galaxy: The probability of the CLARITY Act passing has dropped to 10%, SEC and CFTC accelerate independent actions

Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn pointed out that as the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 significantly decreases, the U.S. SEC and CFTC are intensifying independent cryptocurrency regulatory actions. The bill previously gained bipartisan support in the Senate Banking Committee but has stalled due to unresolved ethical rules for officials regarding cryptocurrency, pressure from community banks leading to some Republican positions softening, and disputes over developer protection clauses. The Senate Majority Leader failed to push for a vote before the August recess, and the September session is only about two to three weeks long, leading Galaxy to lower the probability to 10%.On the SEC side, the originally planned "Reg Crypto" exemption (which provides a new path for primary issuance of crypto assets) and "Innovation Exemption" (which allows tokenized securities to trade in DeFi secondary markets) have been postponed multiple times. It is reported that the agency had retreated due to opposition from the traditional securities industry, but may restart due to the bleak outlook of the bill, with text expected to be released in the coming weeks to months. These measures are likely to be time-limited sandboxes that will face litigation and require years to refine. The CFTC is actively advocating for jurisdiction over prediction market contracts, responding to the New York Attorney General's attempt to issue an emergency order to ban Kalshi event contracts nationwide, continuing the tug-of-war over federal and state jurisdiction regarding prediction markets.Thorn believes that while the bill covers a comprehensive framework including registration licensing, compliance monitoring, and consumer protection, it is currently more dominated by political factors. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce's planned departure in November also adds urgency to the advancement of the rules. The related actions aim to fill the legislative vacuum but may ultimately undergo a lengthy judicial and rule-making process.

Macroeconomic policy expectations continue to change, and Gate institutions are continuously upgrading their professional trading infrastructure

In July, the US CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, overall in line with market expectations. As the market continues to assess the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path, the impact of macro changes on asset allocation and trading strategies is continuously strengthening, further enhancing institutions' focus on liquidity management and trading execution efficiency.Against this backdrop, Gate institutions are continuously improving professional trading infrastructure. According to the transparency report released by the platform in July, Gate CrossEx added one mainstream exchange and 23 trading pairs, launched RPI Orders, reduced the highest fees of multiple exchanges by 50%, and introduced new APIs for market data, funding rates, batch order cancellations, and several WebSocket features; by optimizing concurrent order placement and execution feedback delays, system performance improved by 50%, while the launch of Colo services further reduced trading latency.In addition, SuperLink continues to optimize Fireblocks Gas management and settlement processes, further enhancing institutions' cross-platform asset management and trading collaboration capabilities. In the future, Gate institutions will continue to advance infrastructure upgrades around core capabilities such as trading execution, liquidity, and cross-platform collaboration, providing professional investors with more efficient and stable institutional-level trading services.

Data: Bitcoin has entered the late-stage bear market compression phase, but the real demand signals have not yet appeared

Glassnode published a market perspective stating that Bitcoin is currently caught between the median realized price (around $63,000) and the cost basis of short-term holders (around $68,700). Spot trading volume has hit its lowest level since 2019, and the market is in an extremely quiet compression state. Despite core inflation falling to 2.5% in July and the stock market reaching new highs, Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction and even weakened, indicating a clear lack of demand.On the other hand, selling pressure is easing: profit supply is approaching the past bear market bottom area, the seller exhaustion indicator has hit a cycle low, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times. Meanwhile, buyers continue to be absent, with minimal net inflows into ETFs, and coins are still flowing into exchanges; however, derivatives leverage has already massively gone long, with open interest relative to trading volume being high, and the order book's buy side is also thinning. Glassnode believes that the key observation points are the upper level of $68,700 and the lower level of about $58,500: effectively standing above the former with accompanying volume and ETF inflows recovering may confirm improvement, while losing the latter could easily lead to accelerated declines under thin buy support and crowded longs. Glassnode remains cautious overall, believing this is the late-stage bear market compression phase, and real demand signals have yet to appear.
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