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TRX $0.3304 +0.62%
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ADA $0.2494 -0.52%
BCH $441.82 -0.81%
LINK $9.31 -0.48%
HYPE $43.64 -1.26%
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XLM $0.1712 +1.32%
ZEC $333.79 +3.00%

tia

Spark's strategic director: The ETH market faces liquidity risks due to a potential 10% to 15% reduction in rsETH loans

The strategic director of Spark, monetsupply.eth, posted on platform X that as the stablecoin market begins to lack liquidity, the situation is entering a more dangerous phase. I believe that the ETH market is about 16.5% supported by rsETH, and if the loans supported by rsETH experience losses shared between the mainnet and external chains, there may be a 10% to 15% reduction in emode, leaving a remaining 2% to 3% reduction for ETH suppliers to smooth out the umbrella structure.ETH suppliers naturally tend to exit as soon as possible to avoid this risk, so the utilization rate is locked at 100%, and the borrowing rates are insufficient to incentivize the repayment of unrelated LST cycles (wstETH, weETH) to release liquidity. Since users cannot withdraw ETH, those who borrow stablecoins like USDT and use ETH as collateral cannot close their positions even when stablecoin borrowing rates rise, cutting off the typical incentive mechanism to maintain market health.Currently, two unhealthy incentives are causing the market utilization rate to be locked at 100%: 1) ETH holders cannot close their positions to maintain a healthy LTV, and liquidators cannot atomically withdraw or sell collateral, which may lead to bad debts if the ETHUSD price falls. 2) Users supplying USDT, in order to exit their holdings, tend to maximize borrowing of other stablecoins, which is currently generating positive returns (temporarily), thus the exit cost is low; if conditions worsen, they can at least recover 75% of the position value.The bottom line is that these pooled/re-staked lending markets must maintain liquidity at all costs to operate normally. The recent weakening of slope2 against Aave's maximum borrowing rate is having a negative impact and significantly increasing the risk of failure in the yield market.

Next week's macro outlook: Focus on US-Iran negotiations and changes in the Federal Reserve personnel, with the Middle East situation repeatedly disturbing the market

According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

J.P. Morgan: Negotiations on the CLARITY Act have entered the final stage, with disputes narrowed down to 2-3 core issues

JPMorgan analysts have stated that negotiations for the U.S. "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (i.e., the CLARITY Act) have entered the final stages, with both sides reaching compromises on a few remaining contentious points. The number of disputes has been reduced from over a dozen to 2-3 core issues, with discussions on stablecoin rewards being "in a good place." While banks express concerns about stablecoins offering similar yields to deposits, there is an overall bipartisan compromise trend. JPMorgan believes that "there is no perfect bill," and once passed, the bill will provide important regulatory clarity for the integration of digital assets into the U.S. financial system.The "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" is currently in advanced negotiations in the U.S. Senate, with Senate staff stating that the draft is "very close" to resolution, but the final text has not yet been released, nor has a formal vote been scheduled. The remaining major disagreements focus on stablecoin rewards, DeFi regulation, and token classification issues. Although optimism is rising, there is still a risk of delays due to the 2026 midterm elections, which could lead to a more uncertain political environment. If the bill is ultimately passed, it will delineate the regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC, providing a long-term regulatory framework for stablecoins, DeFi, and the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Arweave AO launches a network-available staking test program and initiates a gateway data service incentive mechanism

According to official news, the scalable blockchain network AO based on Arweave has announced the launch of the "Network Availability Staking Alpha (NASA)" testing program, which is a key step in its AO ecosystem aimed at enhancing the availability and reliability of decentralized data networks through a staking mechanism. The program is currently in the Alpha stage, and users can participate in network availability verification and earn rewards by providing data services for Arweave gateways and staking AO tokens.In the first pilot phase, AO introduces the "availability staking" mechanism, requiring node operators to stake 25 AO to participate in the network and compete for the speed and stability of responding to user requests. The system will allocate rewards from a monthly reward pool of 1000 AO based on the performance of nodes in data services. This mechanism relies on the next-generation HyperBEAM architecture, enabling higher levels of verifiability and trustlessness for gateway and routing services while significantly reducing operational costs.The project team stated that NASA aims to establish a stronger decentralized economic model for the entire permanent network infrastructure, paving the way for future expansion into areas such as computing scheduling, data indexing, and network services. Although the current reward scale is small and still in the testing phase, the program is seen as an important starting point for the AO-Core economic system and will gradually expand to more network infrastructure services in the future.

Bitcoin developers proposed BIP-361 to combat potential future quantum attack risks

One of the Bitcoin contributors, Jameson Loop, along with other cryptographers, has proposed an initiative that may force Bitcoin holders to migrate their tokens to new quantum-resistant addresses, or else their tokens will be permanently frozen by the network itself. In this scenario, holders technically still own these coins but will lose the ability to transfer them. This is known as Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-361, which was updated on Tuesday in Bitcoin's official proposal repository, titled "Post-Quantum Migration and Old Signature Retirement."BIP-361 builds on the BIP-360 proposal introduced in February. BIP-360 introduced a soft fork (a type of network upgrade) aimed at enabling a new transaction type called "Pay to Merkle Root" (P2MR). This approach draws on Bitcoin's Taproot (P2TR) framework but removes key-based spending paths, thereby eliminating an element widely considered to pose risks in the quantum era.The BIP-361 proposal divides the migration into three phases. Phase A starts three years after activation and prohibits anyone from sending new bitcoins to old, quantum-vulnerable addresses. You can still spend from these addresses, but you cannot receive any coins. Phase B starts five years after activation and will render old signatures (ECDSA and Schnorr) completely ineffective, with the network rejecting any attempts to spend coins from quantum-vulnerable wallets.Essentially, your coins will be frozen. Finally, there is Phase C, which is a rescue plan still under research: holders of frozen wallets may potentially prove ownership through zero-knowledge proofs (a method of proving knowledge of a secret without revealing the secret itself). If successful, the coins frozen in Phase B can be recovered.
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