tariffs

The President of the United States, Trump, announced a trade agreement with India. According to the agreement, the U.S. will significantly reduce tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% in exchange for India lowering trade barriers, stopping the purchase of Russian oil, and instead buying oil from the U.S. and possibly Venezuela. Trump stated that Indian Prime Minister Modi has committed to significantly increasing "buying American," including energy, technology, and agricultural products worth over $500 billion.Under the agreement, the U.S. will eliminate the previously imposed 25% punitive tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil. Additionally, Modi stated that this agreement will allow "Make in India" products to enjoy lower tariffs and expressed gratitude to Trump.Analysts believe that this move will align India's tariff levels with those of other Asian countries, helping to eliminate the drag on Indian exports and the rupee exchange rate. The Indian Minister of Trade also stated that this agreement will bring more development opportunities for the Indian economy.It is worth noting that the details of this agreement have not been fully disclosed, including the specific timeline for tariff reductions and the list of U.S. goods that India has committed to purchasing. At the same time, Trump hinted that India might replace some of its Russian oil imports by purchasing oil from Venezuela.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that we have not yet overcome the inflation issues caused by tariffs.

Trump stated on social media that, due to Canada's erroneous, illegal, and stubborn refusal to issue certification for Gulfstream jets, he is hereby canceling the certification for Bombardier's Global Express aircraft and all Canadian-made aircraft until Gulfstream receives full certification, which should have been completed years ago.Furthermore, Canada effectively prohibits the sale of Gulfstream products in Canada through the same certification process. If the relevant issues are not corrected immediately, I will impose a 50% tariff on all Canadian aircraft imported into the U.S.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) excluding the impact of commodity tariffs is slightly above 2%, which is a healthy progress in terms of inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that high inflation largely reflects the push from tariffed goods.

QCP pointed out in its latest daily market analysis that global market risk appetite has significantly cooled over the past week. The impact of the Japanese bond market, combined with geopolitical tensions, has driven funds towards defensive positions. U.S. stocks briefly fell over 2%, and the global bond market faced pressure simultaneously. The report states that Japan has become the core of current market anxiety. After a long period of ultra-low interest rates, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to about 2.29%, reaching a new high since 1999, exposing severe fiscal vulnerabilities.Japan's government debt has exceeded 240% of GDP, with total debt amounting to approximately 1,342 trillion yen. It is expected that by 2026, debt interest payments will account for about one-quarter of fiscal expenditures. The rising yields are triggering widespread doubts in the market about the sustainability of Japan's public finances, creating spillover effects in the global bond market. Meanwhile, relations between the U.S. and Europe have once again become tense. The Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries opposing U.S. control over Greenland, with plans to increase it to 25% on June 1. The European Union has quickly stated that it will take countermeasures, and the bilateral trade relationship faces further escalation risks.In 2024, the bilateral goods trade volume between the U.S. and Europe is expected to be around $650 billion to $700 billion, and the impact of escalating conflicts cannot be ignored. The European Parliament is also considering suspending the U.S.-EU trade agreement reached in July this year. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has continued to face pressure after falling below $90,000. Although it briefly rebounded above $97,000, the momentum has not recovered. QCP pointed out that BTC currently resembles a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool, being highly sensitive to interest rates, geopolitical issues, and cross-market volatility. Until policy signals become clearer, the crypto market may continue to respond passively, with a shift in focus towards capital preservation rather than risk-taking.

According to Jinshi reports, due to market concerns about U.S. President Trump’s intention to seize Greenland from Denmark, relations between the U.S. and Europe are tense, and the dollar is weakening.Trump stated that starting from February 1, he will impose a 10% tariff on several European countries, and the European Union is considering retaliatory tariff measures. Analysts at Barclays Bank pointed out that the tension may prompt foreign investors to increase hedging against the risk of dollar depreciation, and the dollar may continue to be under pressure in the short term.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today released a report, raising the global economic growth forecast for 2026 from 3.1% in October last year to 3.3%.IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas pointed out that despite facing U.S.-led trade protection policies and high uncertainty, the global economy still shows significant resilience, mainly due to a surge in investments in artificial intelligence in North America and Asia.

According to Jinshi, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the trade agreement with the European Union has not yet been finalized. Trump has the emergency power to impose tariffs. The likelihood of the Supreme Court overturning Trump's tariffs is low.

特朗普在 Truth Social 发文表示，因（丹麦自治领地）格陵兰岛问题，自今年 2 月 1 日起，丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰向美国出口的所有商品都将被加征 10% 的关税。至今年 6 月 1 日，关税将提高至 25%。该关税需持续缴纳，直至就"全面彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。特朗普在帖文中表示，"丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰这些国家，都已经前往格陵兰岛，目的不明。这对我们星球的安全、保障和生存构成了非常危险的局面。这些国家正在玩一场极其危险的游戏，它们带来的风险程度是不可容忍、不可持续的。因此，为了保护全球和平与安全，必须采取强硬措施，让这一潜在的危险局面迅速、无可争议地结束。"此外，欧盟将于 18 日在布鲁塞尔召集成员国大使进行紧急会议，讨论格陵兰岛问题以及美国总统特朗普新的关税威胁。

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that as the impact of tariffs diminishes, inflationary pressures are gradually easing.

According to Jinshi Data, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: After the Supreme Court's (unfavorable) ruling, Trump can immediately implement a 10% tariff.

According to Jin Shi, the U.S. Supreme Court will not make a ruling on the tariff case of the Trump administration on Friday.

The U.S. government announced on the 23rd that it will impose tariffs on Chinese chips in 2027, ending the trade investigation against Chinese chips initiated by the previous Biden administration.U.S. media analysis states that although the U.S. government claims that China's practices in the chip industry "harm U.S. interests," the final decision is to refrain from imposing additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months. Bloomberg reported that the delay in imposing new tariffs is the latest signal from the U.S. government seeking to solidify the U.S.-China "ceasefire" agreement and stabilize U.S.-China relations.