geopolitical

According to Jinshi reports, the S&P 500 index reached a record high during Wednesday's trading session, marking the first new high since the outbreak of the Iran war. The market's expectations for a de-escalation of the war situation and strong earnings forecasts have attracted investors back to risk assets. Despite the ongoing geopolitical crisis, there has been a shift in market risk pricing, with traders more willing to factor in lower escalation risks in the short term. Since the conflict erupted on February 28, the S&P 500 index had fallen as much as 9%, but did not meet the criteria for confirming a "technical adjustment."

According to QCP Group analysis, BTC followed the overnight rebound of risk assets, rising to the mid-range of $74,000, triggered by the news of a preliminary framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, long-term yields remained almost unchanged, gold maintained high levels, and the bond market did not follow suit, indicating that this rebound is merely a relief from headline risks rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.The core contradiction lies in the uranium enrichment issue—Iran is currently enriching at 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. Iran has yet to signal any compromise, and this issue has been unresolved since 2015. In terms of market structure, BTC spot is slowly rising against a backdrop of negative funding rates and low open interest, showing that shorts are still resisting and pushing for a short squeeze, but the options market has failed to confirm a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and one-month volatility is still lower than three-month volatility, with demand for downside protection still stronger than the willingness to chase upside.On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's net rate cut space for this year is close to zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round of market activity is essentially a geopolitical-driven relief rebound rather than a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, and the market needs to be wary of the risk of a pullback after the rebound.

Bitwise Asset Management points out that the recent strength of Bitcoin is not contrary to a risk-averse environment, but is directly driven by geopolitical conflicts. Since the escalation of the situation in the Middle East at the end of February, BTC has risen by about 12%, while the S&P 500 index has fallen by about 1% and gold has dropped by about 10%, showing a clear divergence in performance.Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and research director Ryan Rasmussen state that Bitcoin is simultaneously embodying two logics: "store of value asset" and "potential international settlement currency." As the financial system becomes "weaponized" and the global payment system fractures, the appeal of non-sovereign neutral assets continues to rise. The report suggests that geopolitical fragmentation is prompting some countries to explore alternative paths to bypass the traditional financial system, such as attempting to introduce Bitcoin settlements in trade. This trend enhances BTC's potential position in the global monetary system. Based on the aforementioned changes, Bitwise indicates that the Bitcoin valuation framework is being reshaped; if it captures both store of value and transaction settlement demand, long-term price expectations may be underestimated, and $1 million could shift from a target ceiling to a "benchmark level."

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.

According to Jinshi reports, due to Trump's order to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices have surged, U.S. stock index futures have fallen, and the dollar has strengthened. This escalation of the situation occurred after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement in negotiations in Pakistan, which may leave investors feeling disappointed. Elias Haddad, the global market strategy director at Brown Brothers Harriman, stated that this move is bound to rekindle risk aversion this week. Investors are focused on the upcoming first-quarter earnings season, anticipating insights from corporate leadership on the increasing risks.

According to The Block, Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate at high levels this week, with prices remaining above $72,000, influenced by the situation in the Middle East and U.S. CPI inflation data. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $358 million, while Ethereum funds saw an additional approximately $85 million in funding.Analysts point out that although the risk premium has decreased due to the ceasefire in the Middle East, the market has not yet returned to normal, with oil prices, interest rates, and crypto assets closely linked. The March CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, with rising energy costs being the main driver. Institutional investors remain cautious about risks, and the options market indicates that summer volatility may tend to calm down. The current Bitcoin trend is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with traders waiting for more data to determine the subsequent direction.

The "contract whale" (@Jason60704294) posted on social media that it is currently a good time to position in technology assets and cryptocurrency spot assets. He believes that in the context of geopolitical disturbances, high-quality assets often provide a low-entry window, rather than waiting to chase high prices after risks have dissipated.His core judgment is that the probability of further escalation of geopolitical conflicts is limited, so he has been gradually building positions over the past month and has set key risk levels around $67,500. He emphasized that investment should focus on trends and cycles, and there is no need to pursue an absolute bottom; it is sufficient to complete positioning at relatively low levels within the cycle. With limited time and understanding, one should grasp a few key decisions.

Wintermute released its latest weekly report, stating that the current macro situation was entirely driven by geopolitical news last week: On Tuesday, the Iranian president signaled a ceasefire, causing the S&P 500 to surge about 2.9%, and Brent crude oil fell to $105; however, on Wednesday, Trump made a tough speech, promising "extremely severe" strikes against Iran for 2-3 weeks and showing no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leading WTI crude oil to soar 11% to over $111 on Thursday, while Asian markets plummeted.On Sunday, Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants on Tuesday, while also stating that it was "very likely" an agreement would be reached before Monday. Reports indicate that a 45-day ceasefire framework is under discussion. The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.36% (up 40bp since the conflict began), and swap market pricing shows a zero probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on April 28-29. PCE data will be released on Thursday, with the market watching whether the impact of oil prices will transmit to the Fed's preferred inflation indicators.In terms of digital assets, Bitcoin only rose 2% last week, with the fear and greed index at 9 (extreme fear), and social sentiment reaching the most bearish level since the conflict began. Institutional buying remains a key support, with net inflows into ETFs in March at $1.32 billion (the strongest since October 2025), Strategy increasing its holdings by 44,000 Bitcoins, and Morgan Stanley approved to list a spot ETF at a 14bp fee rate.However, in the last week of March, ETFs turned to outflows of $414 million, and the ratio of exchange whales rose from 0.34 in January to 0.79, while over-the-counter trading data also showed institutions shifting from buying to neutral to net selling. Ethereum performed well (+4.2%), with staking yields becoming a differentiated advantage in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment.Solana dropped below $80 due to a hack of the Drift protocol (resulting in a loss of $285 million, marking the second-largest hack in Solana's history). Wintermute stated that the Tuesday deadline for the Strait of Hormuz is a critical juncture. The 45-day ceasefire framework is the most concrete de-escalation effort since the conflict began, but damage to Iranian energy facilities, Gulf refineries, and port logistics has already occurred, and even a full ceasefire cannot restore pre-war shipping capacity overnight. If the "power plant day" threat materializes on Tuesday and Iran retaliates, the risk premium for oil prices will be immediately rebuilt.

According to market news, due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, the price of Bitcoin has fallen from about $71,000 last week to around $67,000, dipping to $65,000 on Saturday. BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas stated that Bitcoin briefly reached $72,000 earlier this week due to hopes for a breakthrough in Middle Eastern diplomacy, but as those hopes faded and concerns over oil supply resurfaced, the price retraced its gains.She pointed out that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has heightened inflation concerns, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which puts pressure on crypto prices. BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei indicated that oil and gas prices will remain high in the short term and drag down economic growth, suggesting that there is still room for crypto prices to decline, with Bitcoin potentially falling to a support level of $60,000.Bitrue Research Director Andri Fauzan Adziima believes that the market will continue to be volatile and driven by news; if the US-Iran conflict escalates, Bitcoin may test $60,000; if the situation eases and oil prices drop, it could rebound above $70,000.BTC Markets analyst Lucas also noted that current retail investor sentiment is fearful, with many adopting a wait-and-see or hedging stance, while institutional investors are showing the opposite trend. This month, over $1.13 billion flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, ending four consecutive months of net outflows; Strategy continues to increase holdings, and Morgan Stanley is set to launch a low-fee Bitcoin ETF.She stated that when there is a clear divergence between retail panic and institutional accumulation, historical experience shows that institutional judgment is often more accurate.

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," stated on social media that the continuous expansion of national debt and the increase in money supply will drive inflation upward, putting continuous depreciation pressure on dollar savings. At the same time, he believes that geopolitical conflicts may persist for a long time and provide upward support for oil prices, further exacerbating the inflationary environment.Robert Kiyosaki pointed out that in the current global context of debt, currency, and inflation, personal financial awareness and asset allocation are particularly crucial, and he holds a relatively optimistic attitude towards assets such as gold, silver, oil, food, as well as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In the options market, implied volatility has slightly retreated, and the curve maintains a moderate positive spread. Downside hedging demand still exists but has not reached extreme levels, and geopolitical premiums continue to be reflected in volatility pricing.Currently, BTC has neither fully followed the high beta logic of the stock market nor formed stable safe-haven demand. Market trends are still primarily driven by news, and a trending market is yet to form until macro or geopolitical situations become clearer.

The Bitfinex analysis report points out that as Trump announced a five-day delay in plans to strike Iranian power facilities and stated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are "very smooth and constructive," the market reacted quickly. Bitcoin has maintained its opening position of $67,035 at the beginning of the month this week and is once again under pressure at the lower edge of the $72,000 to $82,000 "vacuum zone." The flow of ETFs further verifies the sensitivity of the market response: on the day the U.S. paused actions, the net inflow of ETFs reached $167.2 million, with IBIT absorbing $160.8 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since March 17, while ending three consecutive days of net outflows after the FOMC.Analysis suggests that the capital flow in the next two to three days will determine whether this rebound is a short-term "relief trade" or the starting point of a new accumulation phase. If the daily inflow of ETFs remains above $100 million, the conditions for supporting the "vacuum zone" may be reestablished; if the pullback deepens, Bitcoin may return to the previous consolidation range.

Bybit announced that it will co-host an online live broadcast today on the Bybit official website and X platform with DefiLlama Research (DL Research), reviewing the "2025 World Cryptocurrency Application Index Report" previously released by both parties.It is reported that this live broadcast will be participated by Bybit's Chief Market Analyst Han Tan and the DL Research research team members Seb and Stan. The core topics will focus on the recent dramatic changes in the global situation and the trends in the cryptocurrency market, with a particular emphasis on the performance and resilience of cryptocurrencies in geopolitical conflicts, the current development status of the stablecoin ecosystem, new trends in RWA and tokenization applications, as well as the specific performance of the Middle Eastern market, represented by the UAE, under the current geopolitical "stress test."

Shaokai Fan, the global central bank director of the World Gold Council, stated on Tuesday that gold, as a tool for hedging against de-dollarization and geopolitical risks, is expected to encourage central banks that have previously been absent from the market to buy this precious metal this year.He noted that in recent months, central banks from countries such as Guatemala, Indonesia, and Malaysia have begun purchasing gold. These central banks may be returning to the market after a long hiatus or making their first purchases of gold. "In recent months, some new central banks, or those that have been inactive or absent from the gold market for a long time, are entering the gold market. I believe this trend may continue into 2026." He added that some central banks are also purchasing gold from small domestic producers to support local industries and prevent this gold from flowing to "informal participants."He also mentioned that during a round of gold sell-offs last October, central banks took the opportunity to increase their holdings, but it is still too early to determine whether a similar situation will occur in this month's decline.

According to CoinDesk, affected by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, the price of Bitcoin quickly fell back to $72,300, with a 24-hour decline of about 2%. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP fell nearly 3%, putting overall pressure on risk assets.On the news front, U.S. President Trump sent a stronger signal regarding Iran, labeling it as the "number one supporter of terrorism" and hinting that the situation may escalate further. Meanwhile, incidents such as the attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, Israel reportedly killing the Iranian intelligence minister, and the U.S. using heavy bombs to strike missile facilities near the Strait of Hormuz have intensified market tensions, pushing WTI crude oil prices up from about $92 to nearly $96.In terms of macro data, the U.S. PPI for February rose 0.7% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.3%; core PPI increased by 0.5%, also above expectations. Notably, this inflation data does not yet account for the recent surge in oil prices, further exacerbating market concerns about inflation stickiness and weakening expectations for interest rate cuts.Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market weakened in sync with U.S. stock futures, with the three major stock index futures turning from gains to declines of about 0.4%. Market focus has shifted to the upcoming interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve and Chairman Powell's statements on growth risks and inflation pressures. Meanwhile, Trump has once again publicly called for interest rate cuts, adding a political variable to this meeting.