hedging

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article that his fund Maelstrom is currently in a "No Trade Zone," and aside from a slight increase in long positions in Hyperliquid, trading operations have basically ceased in the first quarter.Hayes believes the current market faces two key variables: first, the large-scale proliferation of AI agents will destroy the flexible labor market in the West, leading to a wave of unemployment among knowledge workers and a deflationary financial collapse; second, the war against Iran led by the Trump administration has been ongoing for seven weeks, posing a serious threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.

According to official social media news, the decentralized contract trading platform SunX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 (UTC+8) on the theme "Crude Oil, Gold, BTC: Who is the True Safe-Haven Asset?" At that time, Mr. Ice Fire, Zhengrong Shuo, Bitqi, Crypto Monkey Uncle, Qiu Rong, and other crypto KOLs will attend to engage in an in-depth discussion on the asset allocation logic in the context of increasing global macro uncertainty, focusing on the traditional safe-haven properties of crude oil and gold, the evolution of Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, and the differences and games among the three asset classes in terms of liquidity, volatility, and risk hedging dimensions.

According to BBX data, yesterday global listed companies showed a transition in their crypto treasury operations from "one-sided accumulation" to "asset securitization and optimization of debt structure," with the following core data:$1.1 billion debt buyback: MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: $MARA) confirmed yesterday the completion of cashing out 15,133 BTC, raising approximately $1.1 billion to repurchase discounted convertible senior notes. This move successfully reduced the company's debt by about 30% and captured a book premium of $88 million through "debt repayment with cryptocurrency."4,709 BTC covered calls: GameStop (NYSE: $GME) announced yesterday an agreement with Coinbase to pledge 4,709 BTC in its treasury as collateral, executing a covered call strategy. This marks the beginning of "retail concept stocks" utilizing their holdings to generate passive income.$5 million accumulation guideline: Genius Group (NYSE: $GNS) announced yesterday the purchase of an additional $5 million in Bitcoin. The company has established a "Bitcoin first" guideline, planning to continuously convert over 90% of its cash reserves into BTC.Spot ETF listed on the NYSE: Morgan Stanley (NYSE: $MS) officially announced yesterday that its spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved for listing on the NYSE. As a Wall Street giant, this move signifies that top investment banks have completed the transition from "channel merchants" to "asset managers."Volatility cooling report: Charles Schwab (NYSE: $SCHW) released the "2026 Bitcoin Maturity" report yesterday, indicating that BTC volatility has fallen to historical lows, gradually meeting the "compliance threshold" for traditional pension funds to enter treasury allocations.

Cathie Wood's investment firm ARK Invest stated that it will use data from the prediction market platform Kalshi to assist in investment decisions and for risk management and hedging strategies.ARK pointed out that it will integrate Kalshi data in three ways: first, to supplement fundamental and quantitative analysis by introducing continuously updated market expectations; second, to obtain real-time signals through indicators such as trading volume; third, for event-driven risk management, hedging key outcomes that affect the portfolio and macro and industry risks. Cathie Wood stated that introducing prediction markets into institutional investment processes is a natural extension of financial research innovation, and this type of data helps quantify uncertainty and provides more forward-looking references for investments in disruptive industries.

According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Ethereum has accumulated a decline of about 63% in this cycle, reaching a low of $1837, and the current price is testing the technical resistance level at the upper edge of the downward channel.The recent price recovery has been primarily driven by options capital flow and the Gamma hedging mechanism, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. Although ETF demand has shown some signs of recovery, derivative positions remain the core factor affecting recent trends. Analysts point out that the financial asset attributes of Ethereum are becoming increasingly apparent, and its price movement has begun to decouple from traditional major asset classes. The traditional risk-on/risk-off framework has limited explanatory power, and the crypto market may be forming a more independent pricing logic, with the position structure and capital flow worthy of continuous tracking.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a whale with a bet of $54.63 million on "digital gold BTC" and "real gold XAUt" cleared out its position. After liquidating BTC in mid-January, it sold 5809.8 XAUt (worth $29.81 million) today at a price of $5130 just 3 hours ago.Now that everything has been liquidated, he has lost $5.15 million on digital gold and made a profit of $5.18 million on real gold. Calculating it out, he neither lost nor gained: he spent $30 million to purchase 264.8 WBTC at a price of $113,262. Sold for $93,844, resulting in a loss of $5.15 million. He spent $24.63 million to purchase 5809.8 XAUt at a price of $4,239. Sold for $5,130, resulting in a profit of $5.18 million.

Bitcoin mining company DMG Blockchain Solutions released its operational performance report, disclosing that it mined 23 BTC last month. However, due to the sale of some of its Bitcoin holdings, its current holdings have decreased to 410 BTC, and the overall platform hash rate has increased to 1.78 EH/s. Additionally, the company stated that it has been approved to increase its total available power capacity to 75 megawatts and plans to explore power financial hedging contracts to mitigate the impact of power outages on Bitcoin mining and artificial intelligence data center operations.

According to market news, Bitcoin mining company DMG Blockchain Solutions announced that it has been approved to increase its total available power capacity to 75 megawatts, and it plans to explore power financial hedging contracts to avoid the impact of power restrictions on Bitcoin mining and artificial intelligence data center operations.Additionally, according to its 2026 operational performance report, it mined 23 BTC last month, but due to the sale of some of its held Bitcoin, its current holdings have decreased to 410 BTC, and the overall platform hash rate has risen to 1.78 EH/s.

According to Coindesk, blockchain analysis company Chainalysis stated that Iran's cryptocurrency ecosystem will reach $7.78 billion by 2025, with a growth rate surpassing the previous year.Iran legalized cryptocurrency mining in 2019, allowing licensed operators to use subsidized electricity and sell the mined bitcoins to the central bank. Recent estimates indicate that Iran accounts for between 2% and 5% of the global Bitcoin mining hash rate. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as the country's main military force, has since deepened its influence in the cryptocurrency sector.Chainalysis estimates that by the fourth quarter of 2025, addresses associated with the IRGC will account for over 50% of Iran's total cryptocurrency inflows, with amounts received last year exceeding $3 billion. Another analysis by Elliptic found that the Central Bank of Iran had accumulated at least $507 million in USDT by 2025, which could help stabilize the rial exchange rate and facilitate trade. However, this effort has largely failed, with data showing that the rial has depreciated by over 96% against the dollar. Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians have begun to turn to Bitcoin. During recent protests and internet outages, the amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from local exchanges to personal wallets surged dramatically.

DeFiance Capital founder Arthur posted on platform X, stating that cryptocurrency has now become the preferred short hedge tool for traditional finance in any risk-off events over the weekend, and he feels regret about this.

According to CoinDesk, data from Deribit shows that as Bitcoin experiences a significant pullback to around the $66,000 range, the nominal value of $40,000 put options has reached approximately $490 million, highlighting an increased demand for hedging against downside risks in the market.Additionally, Bitcoin options with a nominal value of about $7.3 billion will expire at the end of this month, with $566 million accumulated at the $75,000 strike price, which is currently the "maximum pain point." Although the total number of call options still exceeds that of put options (63,547 call option contracts versus 45,914 put option contracts), the open interest ratio between the two stands at 0.72. However, the large put positions at lower strike prices indicate a clear demand for downside protection, as traders hedge against potential further declines while maintaining exposure to a rebound.

The cryptocurrency research institution 10X Research points out that although the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 46% from its peak, Bitcoin ETFs have only recorded a net outflow of $8.5 billion, which is a relatively moderate decrease compared to the total assets of the ETFs.The structural characteristics of ETF ownership show that the dominant players are market makers and hedge funds focused on arbitrage, whose positions are mostly hedged or market-neutral rather than directional bets on Bitcoin. Additionally, there is a significant proportion of long-term institutional investors, who have a low turnover rate and longer investment horizons.According to the latest 13F filings for the fourth quarter of 2025, it is estimated that 55-75% of the $61 billion assets of BlackRock's IBIT are still held by market makers and hedge funds focused on arbitrage. During the consolidation period of Bitcoin prices around $88,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, market makers reduced their exposure by approximately $1.6-2.4 billion, reflecting a decline in speculative demand and a decrease in arbitrage demand.

According to CoinDesk, Italian banking giant Intesa Sanpaolo disclosed in its 13F filing for the period ending December 2025 that it holds approximately $96 million in Bitcoin spot ETFs, including the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF and the iShares Bitcoin Trust.At the same time, Intesa Sanpaolo also holds a large put option position against Strategy, which the market interprets as a hedge against the Strategy stock price being too high relative to its Bitcoin asset value (mNAV) while being long on Bitcoin ETFs.

Vitalik Buterin posted on the X social platform, stating that the current prediction markets are overly focused on short-term cryptocurrency prices and high-dopamine products like sports betting, lacking long-term social information value, which may lead to unhealthy product-market fit.He suggested that prediction markets should be encouraged to develop towards "risk hedging," making them tools for reducing asset or real expenditure risks. Buterin also envisioned constructing a stable mechanism to replace fiat currencies through personalized prediction market shares based on price indices, thereby providing users with more sustainable value hedging solutions. He called for the establishment of a new generation of financial systems, rather than merely relying on speculative flows.

According to Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, the prediction trading platform Kalshi has entered the institutional sports risk hedging sector, partnering with brokerage firm Game Point Capital to help teams hedge performance bonus expenditures.It is reported that Game Point Capital issues hundreds of millions of dollars in sports insurance annually, primarily providing performance bonus insurance for teams and players. These policies can help sports clubs alleviate the financial pressure caused by large contract bonuses triggered by milestones such as qualifying for the playoffs or winning the championship.

Arthur Hayes posted on platform X: "The sharp drop in BTC may be due to traders hedging against IBIT structured products. I will compile a complete list of all notes issued by banks to better identify the triggers that may lead to sharp price increases and decreases. The rules of the game have changed, and we must keep up with the times."