repricing

Digital asset market research firm Delphi Digital stated on the X platform that gold prices have risen by 120% since the beginning of 2024, marking one of the strongest historical increases. This rise has occurred without an economic recession, quantitative easing, or financial crisis, with central banks purchasing over 600 tons of gold in 2025, and purchases expected to reach 840 tons in 2026.As gold historically leads Bitcoin by about three months at liquidity inflection points, this trend is significant for cryptocurrencies. Currently, gold has completed its repricing for the easing cycle, while Bitcoin sentiment is still influenced by previous cycle simulations and recent pullbacks. The performance of precious metal assets is signaling policy easing and fiscal dominance. When precious metals outperform stocks, the market tends to price in currency depreciation rather than growth collapse, and the volatility in the precious metals market may signal subsequent trends for other risk assets.

According to Jin Shi reports, Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Group, stated that the market views this week as a small "reset" of the U.S. macro narrative, with employment and inflation data set to be released in a very narrow window, which could quickly lead to a repricing of interest rates. The Federal Reserve cut rates last week and is expected to cut rates again in 2026, but the market anticipates at least two more rate cuts next year.If the data is mixed or slightly weaker than expected, the soft landing narrative will remain unchanged, but this may not be enough to trigger a large-scale risk appetite rally. The real risk is a hawkish surprise; if inflation or employment data comes in hotter, yields will rise, and risk assets, especially long-term growth stocks, will be the first to be affected.

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.8 billion in nominal value of Bitcoin options will expire on December 26, covering quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of structured products. This means that the BTC derivatives market will face a "concentration of risk exposure liquidation and repricing" at the end of the year, with prices potentially constrained by structural factors before expiration, but uncertainty actually increasing afterward.From the data, there is a significant accumulation of open interest (OI) at the two closest positions to the current BTC spot price: 14,674 BTC for the $85,000 Put; and 18,116 BTC for the $100,000 Call. In terms of scale, this is not retail behavior, but rather large-scale long-term capital, most likely from ETF hedging positions, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, and other institutions that hold substantial amounts of BTC spot.The Put at the $85,000 strike price indicates that buyers are the "active party," reflecting a strong demand for downside risk hedging at this price level. Similarly, the large accumulation of Call OI at the $100,000 strike price essentially does not mean "the market is bullish up to here," but rather that long-term capital is willing to cede upside potential above this level in exchange for current certainty in cash flow and overall manageable risk.By buying Puts below and selling Calls above, the distribution of BTC returns is compressed within a bearable range. Given that OI has already formed significantly, this $85,000--$100,000 options corridor will create a structural impact on BTC prices before December 26, characterized by "implicit pressure above, passive buffering below, and volatility in the middle range."

The Bitcoin treasury company Twenty One Capital (NYSE: XXI) officially debuted on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday after completing its merger with Cantor Equity Partners. The company entered the market with a massive balance sheet of over 43,000 bitcoins (valued at nearly $4 billion), making it one of the largest publicly traded companies holding bitcoin globally. However, XXI's first-day performance was under pressure, with the stock price hovering around $11 throughout the day, significantly lower than the final closing price of about $14 for Cantor Equity Partners before the merger.Since the beginning of this year, several companies listed with Bitcoin treasury as their core asset have shown similar trends: against the backdrop of a high price correction for bitcoin and narrowing sector premiums, newly listed companies generally opened below their valuation ranges. Twenty One Capital received a small amount of investment support from Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank. Management stated that the company will focus on building financial infrastructure and educational products around bitcoin in the future. However, these businesses are still in the early stages, and the market is assessing whether the company can successfully transition from an "asset-driven company" to one with a "clear business operating model."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, SEB Research's Chief Rate Strategist Jussi Hiljanen stated in a report that U.S. long-term Treasury yields may rise further, partly due to a decline in market confidence in U.S. policy.Jussi Hiljanen emphasized, "Trust in U.S. policy is eroding, and considering the costs of foreign exchange hedging, the lack of attractiveness in valuations, and investors turning to European bonds, all indicate that long-term U.S. yields face structural upward pressure. It is expected that long-term Treasury yields will rise moderately, but fiscal policy may trigger a significant repricing of U.S. Treasuries."

ChainCatcher news, Investors Edge Market and Research Director John Choong stated that after the release of the non-farm payroll report in November, the market predicts a greater than 90% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month, which has exceeded market expectations. Traders seem to focus on the fact that while the U.S. job market shows no signs of cooling, it also shows no signs of heating up. However, Choong's interpretation of the data is different.He believes that the non-farm payroll data for November indicates that last month's weakness was merely a temporary phenomenon caused by the hurricane, and the U.S. labor market is resilient. The Federal Reserve needs to carefully "thread the needle," as they cannot cut rates too early if inflation remains high. He expects rate cut expectations to be repriced, "because today's strong data challenges the view of a rate cut in December."

ChainCatcher news, ING stated that there has been a hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations recently, and some FOMC members are currently skeptical about consecutive rate cuts before the end of the year. ING analyst Francesco Pesole mentioned in a report that the dollar may continue to appreciate ahead of the fiercely contested U.S. presidential election next month.Pesole noted that the dollar might "lose some momentum mid-week" on Wednesday, but overall, the dollar is expected to rise for most of the time leading up to the election. Additionally, the reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts have also boosted the dollar.