timing

According to Jinshi News, Morgan Stanley stated that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate cuts as early as June, but the oil price shock caused by the Iran war could delay the Fed's actions. Although rising energy prices may exacerbate inflation, the bank's economists still maintain their prediction that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, in June and September, by 25 basis points each time. However, they believe that the Fed's first rate cut may be delayed until September or even December.

According to Jinshi News, Goldman Sachs' Head of Multi-Asset Fixed Income Investment, Lindsay Rosner, stated that signs of a weak labor market remind the Federal Reserve that delaying interest rate cuts could come at a cost. Although short-term policies are still influenced by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, Rosner expects that the Federal Reserve will ultimately complete the remaining two "normalization rate cuts" to bring rates back to neutral, but the specific timing remains uncertain.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin failed to hold its ground after rebounding to $70,000 over the weekend and has now declined for three consecutive days. Amid weakening spot trading volume, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the "Extreme Fear" zone.On-chain data institutions indicate that this round of correction is relatively mild compared to historical cycles, with no signs of panic selling commonly seen at previous cycle tops, suggesting that this may be a good time for medium to long-term positioning.Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs have maintained stable net inflows over the past three days, providing some hedge against selling pressure in the market. With low spot trading volume, leveraged funds are dominating short-term price fluctuations. The previous rebound from the low was influenced by the squeeze on crowded short positions, and it is expected that short-term prices may continue to fluctuate sharply within a range.On the macro front, weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts and suppressed the dollar's performance. The market will next focus on non-farm employment and inflation data, which may further impact the sentiment towards risk assets.

According to Jin Ten, Rajapaksa, the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Societe Generale, stated that the market seems to be questioning the timing of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut and has not yet factored in the impact of the new chairman.

The founder of the decentralized social protocol Farcaster, Dan Romero, responded to the question on social media, "Say something that couldn't be publicly shared before the acquisition, but can now be expressed openly," by stating: "I had hoped to issue a token for Farcaster, but I just never found the right moment."

According to Jin Shi, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the current policy stance puts us in a favorable position to determine the magnitude and timing of adjustments to the policy interest rate.

According to sources, some Bank of Japan policymakers believe that the possibility of an interest rate hike may come earlier than the market expects, with a significant chance of a rate increase in April due to the continued depreciation of the yen, which could exacerbate already heightened inflationary pressures. Bank of Japan decision-makers are facing a daunting task: to raise the ultra-low borrowing costs that have persisted for years amid growing pressures on growth from global headwinds, while the Japanese economy has just begun to recover from the effects of long-term deflation.The central bank just raised rates to a thirty-year high in December and is expected to maintain rates at the January meeting. However, sources say that many Bank of Japan policymakers believe there is room for further rate hikes, with some not ruling out the possibility of taking action in April, which would be earlier than the mainstream market expectation (that rate hikes will occur in the second half of this year). Sources indicate that if sufficient evidence emerges showing that Japan will consistently achieve the 2% inflation target, some within the Bank of Japan do not rule out the possibility of taking action sooner.

Evernorth, the XRP treasury entity supported by Ripple, is preparing to go public on Nasdaq through a SPAC merger, trading under the ticker symbol XRPN. The company holds 388 million XRP tokens, currently valued at approximately $812 million.CEO Asheesh Birla stated, "The timing couldn't be more perfect; we have the right regulatory environment, government support, and institutions ready to adopt." Despite the recent valuation plunge of crypto reserve companies, many of which have stopped purchasing cryptocurrencies, Birla emphasized that Evernorth not only provides exposure to XRP but also handles custody, compliance, and security obligations.

The Bank of Korea stated that it will decide whether and when to further cut interest rates next year based on a comprehensive assessment of future data. The bank indicated that, given the high caution in the domestic and foreign exchange markets, it will strengthen market monitoring activities and actively implement stabilization measures.Last month, the Bank of Korea kept the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time at its policy meeting and hinted that the current rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end, as the weakening exchange rate has reduced the space for further easing. The bank's next meeting will be held in January next year.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao posted on social media: "I predict: there will soon be more historical highs. I just don't know the exact timing."

The Trump family previously sued the American media outlet Forbes for false reporting on Trump Media, calling Forbes a "fake news media."As Bitcoin just dipped below $100,000 today, Forbes published a new article titled "Trump Goes All In on Bitcoin, But His Timing Is Terrible," mocking Trump by stating, "Buying in, especially at a high, doesn’t necessarily make you richer."The article mentions that Donald Trump, who once held a skeptical view of cryptocurrencies, has now transformed into a "chief cryptocurrency advocate." This summer, he spent $2 billion through Trump Media to purchase Bitcoin, with an estimated buying cost of $115,000 per coin. Initially, it seemed promising; however, in the past month, the price of Bitcoin has dropped by 17%, causing Trump Media's stock price to fall by 24%, which indirectly resulted in a loss of $490 million in Trump's personal wealth.As Donald Trump pointed out in 2019, cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile. Trump wrote on Twitter at the time, "I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air."Five years later, with cryptocurrencies entering the 2024 election, his attitude has changed. Trump stated at a Bitcoin enthusiasts' gathering, "You are the modern-day Edisons, Wright brothers, Carnegies, and Henry Fords."

ChainCatcher news, according to Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, given the increasing evidence that the labor market is weakening and no signs of persistent tariff inflation. Daly stated regarding the Federal Reserve's decision last week, "I would be willing to wait another cycle, but I cannot wait forever."While this does not mean that a rate cut in September is a certainty, she said, "I would tend to think that every meeting going forward is a live meeting for considering policy adjustments." Daly noted that two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year still seem to be an appropriate recalibration, emphasizing that the key question is whether cuts will occur in both September and December, rather than if cuts will happen at all.Daly stated, "If inflation rises and spreads, or if the labor market warms up, then there could certainly be fewer than two cuts, but it is more likely that we will have to make more than two cuts. If the labor market appears to be entering a weakening phase and we do not see the spillover effects of inflation, we should be prepared for more cuts."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant stated that trade negotiations are currently underway, and he is more concerned about reaching a high-quality agreement rather than completing it before August 1. Basant mentioned that they are not in a hurry, but it can be imagined that the EU would prefer to negotiate more quickly; however, at least the EU has become more engaged now. Their top priority is to secure the best deal for the U.S. (on the Japan issue).Some analysts say that Basant's remarks indicate that there is likely to be a "delay tactic" again by August 1, so people can stay tuned. Meanwhile, regarding Powell, Basant stated, "Ultimately, this is Trump's decision on Powell." He then added that they need to view the Federal Reserve as a whole institution.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs has moved the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline from December to September.

ChainCatcher news, Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised the probability of the majority of spot crypto ETFs being approved to 90% or higher, believing that the positive interactions from the U.S. SEC are an important signal. However, the specific approval or launch timeline remains uncertain; it could be within the next month or two, or it may have to wait until after October. The timing is not important; what matters is that they will be approved.

ChainCatcher news, James Wynn stated in his closing remarks: "Traders need to know when to enter and exit; timing is the most important thing.Never count your money at the table; after the trade is done, there’s plenty of time to count the money."In previous news, James Wynn has closed a long position in BTC worth $1.2 billion, with a single loss of $13.39 million on the long position but an overall profit of about $8.45 million.

ChainCatcher news, Melanie Baker, a senior economist at Royal Asset Management in London, stated in a report that the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, but not earlier than the second half of the year, when the economy is anticipated to show clearer signs of slowing down. She pointed out that the risk of recession has increased, and the economic growth outlook for both the global and U.S. economies has deteriorated.However, she is currently still in the "economic slowdown" camp rather than the "economic recession" camp, due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and signs that Trump is responding to market pressures.

ChainCatcher news, according to Ember monitoring, a whale with 57,000 ETH on the verge of liquidation has once again made a strategic reduction, selling 4,055.6 ETH for 5.72 million DAI to repay.Currently, its ETH position is 49,018 ETH, with a liquidation price of $1,418.