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In July, U.S. retail sales recorded a month-on-month decrease of -0.6%, the largest decline since May of last year, and lower than the market expectation of +0.1%.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Dota 2: Level UP vs Rune Eaters - EPL Masters Playoffs," the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Both sides defeat Roshan" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in win rate, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 90% (a fluctuation of 40%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Dota 2: MOUZ vs Rune Eaters - EPL Masters Playoffs," the sub-market "Ends During the Day" for the "Yes" option has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 90% (a fluctuation of 40%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission documents show that the Swiss National Bank held 1.5 million Class A shares of SpaceX (SPCX.O) as of June 30.

According to The Block, Immunefi's latest data shows that the cryptocurrency industry lost approximately $110 million due to hacker attacks in July.During the same period, the platform paid researchers $2.32 million for confirmed vulnerability reports, with the number of confirmed and completed bounty reports increasing by 18% month-over-month.The report indicates that its audit competitions can average 6.2 critical vulnerabilities per event, compared to 1.5 for first-level audits; in July, a total of 374 threats were mitigated through the bounty program.

On-chain analyst Yu Jin posted on the X platform, stating that since the end of June, Strategy has sold a total of 6,948 BTC, with an average selling price of $62,146, which is lower than its average cost price of $75,000, resulting in a loss of $93.12 million.

According to data from the Bank of Korea, South Korea's current account surplus in June reached 49.73 billion USD, setting a monthly record for the second consecutive month, further expanding from 38.61 billion USD in May, and compared to 13.97 billion USD in the same period last year. The cumulative surplus for the first half of the year was 191.01 billion USD, the highest in history for the same period, exceeding the Bank of Korea's previous annual target of 250 billion USD by 76%. The goods trade surplus of 47.89 billion USD also set a monthly record, with exports increasing by 84.5% year-on-year to 112.37 billion USD, surpassing the 100 billion USD mark for the first time, among which chip exports soared by 196.9%, and computer peripherals grew by 282.7%.South Korea's current account has maintained a surplus for 38 consecutive months since May 2023. The services account deficit widened to 1.29 billion USD, mainly influenced by increased payments related to intellectual property; the travel account surplus was 440 million USD, the second highest since October 2008. The current account surplus for South Korea in 2025 is projected to be 123.05 billion USD, setting a historical annual record.

In July, the United States unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 80,000. The increase in June was also revised down to only 20,000. Despite the weak job market, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos commented that in July, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.09% because both the number of job seekers and the number counted as unemployed decreased; this data brought the unemployment rate to its lowest level in two years.Analysts pointed out that this disappointing report has reignited concerns about the labor market and may complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as policymakers need to seek a balance between weak employment and persistent inflation. As a result, market expectations for interest rate hikes quickly receded.Affected by this, U.S. stock index futures surged rapidly, with Nasdaq futures up 0.79% for the day, S&P 500 futures up 0.39%, and Dow futures up 0.27%. U.S. Treasury prices soared, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury currently down 4.29 basis points, reported at 4.627%; non-U.S. currencies generally rose, with the dollar against the yen briefly falling 80 points, reported at 157.72.At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index DXY briefly fell nearly 30 points, reported at 99.67. Spot gold briefly rose about $40, reported at $4,351.43 per ounce.

According to Gate data, the intraday increase in spot gold has expanded to 3%, reported at $4368.18 per ounce, the highest level since June 17. The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July decreased by 23,000, while the market estimated an increase of 80,000, with the previous value being an increase of 57,000.

The unemployment rate in the United States for July is 4.1%, expected to be 4.2%, previous value 4.20%.

The U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm data for July will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. Institutions forecast the U.S. July non-farm employment population as follows:Vanguard: +10,000; Berenberg Bank: +40,000; Scotiabank: +50,000; Moody's Analytics: +50,000;CIBC: +63,000; Deutsche Bank: +65,000; Nordea Bank: +65,000; UBS Group: +70,000;TD Securities: +70,000; Danske Bank: +70,000; Morgan Stanley: +70,000; HSBC Holdings: +70,000;Société Générale: +75,000; ING: +75,000; Bank of Montreal: +75,000; Goldman Sachs Group: +75,000;JPMorgan Chase: +75,000; Daiwa Capital: +75,000; Westpac Banking: +75,000; Standard Chartered Bank: +75,000;Panasonic Macro: +75,000; U.S. Bank: +75,000; Imperial Commercial Bank: +75,000; High-Frequency Economics: +78,000;Sumitomo Mitsui: +78,000; Oxford Economics: +80,000; Commonwealth Bank of Australia: +80,000; Bank of America Merrill Lynch: +80,000;ANZ Bank: +80,000; Lloyds Bank: +80,000; National Westminster: +85,000; Capital Economics: +90,000;Wells Fargo: +95,000; Barclays Bank: +100,000; Deutsche Bank: +100,000; Société Générale: +105,000;Citigroup: +115,000; Mizuho Securities: +115,000; Nomura Securities: +130,000; Reuters expectation: +80,000.

The Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that the unemployment rate is approaching the long-term equilibrium level.

For the week ending August 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 199,000, lower than the expected 202,000, and the previous value was revised from 197,000 to 198,000.

According to Gate market data, spot gold has broken through the $4,300/ounce mark for the first time since June 18, with a cumulative increase of $250 this week and a daily increase of over 1%.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that so far, the policy has not led to significant unemployment.

According to Gate market data, NVIDIA's stock price has risen over 4%, currently reported at $220.43 per share, reaching a new high since June 4, with a total market capitalization of $5.33 trillion. NVIDIA's stock price has increased for 5 consecutive days.

Fortune magazine recently published a commentary article pointing out that with the rapid rise of China's open-source AI models, the competitive landscape of the global AI field is changing. The real contest has shifted from U.S.-China rivalry to the battle between open-source and closed-source models. The article cites data from the independent evaluation platform Artificial Analysis, stating that the intelligence index of DeepSeek V4 Flash is only 1 point lower than that of GPT-5.6 Luna. Even though OpenAI has reduced prices by 80%, the former's single-task cost is still 60% lower.The author notes that while U.S. export control policies aim to limit China's AI development, they have objectively stimulated innovation at the architectural level among Chinese companies, forcing them to shift towards open-source and low-cost routes. Chinese models attract global developers to participate in improvements by opening weights, while transferring inference costs to overseas cloud service providers, achieving a low-cost global layout. Regarding the viewpoint that open-source models "cannot be profitable," the article argues that their profit model is similar to that of open-source software: users pay for hosting services, and most companies are not inclined to self-deploy.The article also points out that recently, several figures in the U.S. tech community, including former White House AI official David Sacks, have begun to support open-source, and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has also called for the industry to embrace open-source. The author urges both China and the U.S. to cooperate in the field of AI security, viewing open-source AI as a "global public good," rather than falling into a zero-sum competition that costs trillions of dollars.