non-farm

Affected by strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, the market expects the Federal Reserve to combat inflation through interest rate hikes. Gold prices softened in the early session, falling to around $4,060 per ounce.U.S. employment growth was strong in October, the unemployment rate slightly decreased, and the consumer confidence index rose to a three-month high. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.

In October, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment in the United States was 165,000, expected to be 65,000, and the previous value was revised from 29,000 to 60,000.

The unemployment rate and non-farm data for the United States in October will be released tonight at 21:30 (UTC+8).The expected unemployment rate for the United States in October is 4.2%, and the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population is expected to be 65,000.

The preliminary value of non-farm productivity in the United States for the third quarter is 3.6%, higher than the expected 2.8%, with the previous value revised from 1.4% to 2.1%.

The preliminary value of the non-farm unit labor costs in the United States for the third quarter is -0.7%, lower than the expected 0.6%, with the previous value revised from 1.2% to 1.9%.

From November 2 to 8, global markets will welcome several events. The U.S. midterm elections, Apple and AMD earnings reports, and October non-farm payroll data will become the focus of market attention. The Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decisions, the results of the Israeli parliamentary elections, and the progress of the trilateral negotiations among Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine will also be closely watched. In the tech sector, Apple and AMD will release their latest earnings reports, serving as an important test after the confidence in AI trading has been impacted. Apple is expected to report revenues of about $113 billion, marking the first earnings report since the appointment of new CEO Tim Cook; AMD is expected to report revenues of about $13 billion, with attention on the progress of Helios cabinets and MI450 chips.Additionally, Qualcomm, Advanced Micro Devices, Coherent, Lumentum, and Berkshire Hathaway will also announce their performance. There are also reports that Marvell is negotiating to acquire Lumentum, with an announcement possible as soon as next week. Apple's smart access testing plan with Alibaba Qianwen will open on November 4. On November 3, the U.S. midterm elections will re-elect all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate, and the election results will affect the fiscal, tariff, and industrial policy advancement space of the Trump administration in the next two years.The final results of the Israeli parliamentary elections are expected to be announced on November 4, and the trilateral negotiations among Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine are scheduled to resume next week in Abu Dhabi. In terms of macro data, the U.S. October non-farm payroll report will be released, following a mere 29,000 new jobs added in September, with the market expecting an increase of 65,000 jobs in October. If the employment data performs strongly, it may further strengthen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December and impact the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury bonds, and gold prices. China's October foreign exchange reserve data will also be released.

Chief Investment Officer Greg Taylor of PenderFund Capital Management stated that the September non-farm report is favorable for the market and essentially rules out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.There may still be expectations for a rate hike in December, but it has already been priced in by the market and will not have a significant impact on the market.

After the non-farm payroll data was released, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond fell by 2.8 basis points to 5.575%. The 2-year yield dropped by 7.7 basis points to 4.71%. The 10-year yield ultimately decreased by 5.6 basis points to 5.18%.

According to Gate market data, after the non-farm payroll data was released, spot gold rose by about 40 dollars, reaching a high of 4,226 dollars per ounce; spot silver broke through 62 dollars per ounce, with an intraday increase of 1.67%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the non-farm payroll employment for July from +21,000 to -10,000, and for August from 162,000 to 133,000.After the revisions, the total number of new jobs for July and August is 60,000 lower than before the revisions.

In September, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment in the United States increased by 29,000, with an expectation of 90,000, and the previous value was revised from 162,000 to 133,000.

The seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment and unemployment rate, as well as the month-on-month and year-on-year average hourly earnings in the United States for September will be announced in ten minutes.

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the non-farm payroll report for September.Market consensus expects that 84,000 new jobs were added in September, the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, and the average hourly wage year-on-year is 3.1%; the previous value for August was an increase of 162,000 jobs. The market is particularly focused on the extent of the decline in new jobs, wage growth, and whether the August data will be revised down.

Next week's macro data focus will be on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report, including non-farm employment population, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage, which are directly related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and are important employment data ahead of the October monetary policy meeting. According to Beijing time, on Wednesday at 20:15, the U.S. September ADP employment figures will be released, and at 20:30, the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year will be announced; on Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 26 will be released, and on Friday at 20:30, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population and unemployment rate will be published.Regarding officials' speeches, on Thursday at 16:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak, and at 21:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak. Starting from early Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials will have a series of public activities; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, along with 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, will speak in succession, and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the University at Buffalo. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Cook, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak in turn, and on Friday, Williams and Dallas Fed President Logan will still have public activities. In terms of U.S. stocks, Micron will release its earnings report after the market on Wednesday, and Nike will announce its latest quarterly earnings report on Thursday, with both companies corresponding to storage chips and consumer demand.