analysis

ARK Invest's Director of Digital Asset Research, Lorenzo Valente, stated, "The importance of Musk recruiting Benji Taylor to join the X platform as Chief Designer may be underestimated by many. Benji Taylor founded the self-custody crypto wallet Family, which was later acquired by Aave, where he served as CPO, and joined Base in 2024 as Head of Design. If you only consider the basic fintech user experience, then this type of talent may not be suitable for you. It is increasingly likely that wallets, on-chain payments, and eventually DeFi will become part of X's development roadmap."

Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern. Under the multiple pressures of the macro environment, market liquidity continues to be constrained, and the price direction remains unclear. Analysis indicates that the interplay of energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks has led to a compression of liquidity, causing the market to enter a "wait-and-see period." The current market is not lacking in structure but rather in incremental funds.Recently, Bitcoin has stabilized after experiencing volatility, with selling pressure easing somewhat, while ETF fund flows have shown a slight net inflow. However, spot demand remains weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand limits price breakthroughs. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has found support in the $67,000-$69,000 range, with a key resistance level forming around $72,000. Analysts state that there is a "liquidity gap" above this range, and once effectively broken, the price could quickly rise to the $82,000 area; however, until demand shows significant improvement, the market will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern.On the macro level, high energy prices, global central banks maintaining high interest rates, and uncertainties in the Middle East collectively exacerbate market concerns about "stagflation" risks. Kraken Research points out that the combination of slowing growth and inflationary pressures complicates the policy path and suppresses the performance of risk assets. Against this backdrop, the market has entered a "liquidity compression phase."Bitunix analysis suggests that the mismatch of multiple macro factors has compressed funds into a narrow range, with Bitcoin acting more as a risk appetite indicator rather than a trend trading target. In terms of funds, the March spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion, an improvement from the net outflow in February, but still below January levels, indicating cautious institutional fund inflows. The derivatives market is leaning defensive, with funding rates remaining negative and high demand for downside protection; meanwhile, spot trading volume has not shown sustained growth, indicating limited market participation. Overall, Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear breakthrough or downward trend, and is currently closer to a "accumulation and consolidation" phase, with future movements still dependent on macro data, policy signals, and changes in geopolitical situations.

Despite Goldman Sachs disclosing a position of approximately $152 million in spot XRP ETFs, becoming the largest institutional investor in the field, XRP's recent performance remains weak.According to disclosed information, Goldman Sachs currently holds four XRP ETF products, including: Bitwise XRP ETF (approximately $39.8 million), Franklin XRP Trust (approximately $38.5 million), Grayscale XRP ETF (approximately $38 million), and 21Shares XRP ETF (approximately $35.9 million), accounting for about 73% of the total holdings of the top 30 institutional investors. However, market sentiment remains cautious, and technically, XRP has formed a bearish flag breakdown pattern, indicating a potential downside of about 50%. Analysts believe that although institutional allocation reflects long-term confidence, under the backdrop of macro pressures and weakening capital flows, XRP still faces significant adjustment risks in the short term.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has once again fallen below $70,000, with multiple on-chain and technical indicators showing that the current bear market is entering its later stages.In terms of on-chain data, Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has dropped below 0.25, placing it in the "hope/fear zone." CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader pointed out that this means about 40% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is in a state of loss, compounded by the Fear and Greed Index falling to 15, indicating "extreme fear," which "reflects pain and uncertainty." He added that if NUPL rises above 0.25, it will mark the entry into the optimistic zone, a transition that historically often coincides with an increase in price momentum.Glassnode stated that the 7-day moving average of relative unrealized losses has stabilized at 15%, noting that "historically, resolving this level of embedded losses requires time, further price declines, or a sustained influx of fresh capital within a compressed timeframe." Additionally, Bitcoin's entity-adjusted realized profit has fallen from a peak of $3 billion per day in July 2025 to now less than $100 million, a decline of over 96%. Glassnode described this as "further evidence of demand exhaustion" and a "textbook characteristic of the transition to the later stages of a bear market."In terms of key price levels, Bitcoin has recently been in a range-bound consolidation, with support at $64,000 and resistance at $72,000. Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is struggling to hold the 1-week to 1-month cost basis of $70,200, but the accumulation of buy orders at this level is not robust enough, making "the probability of breaking below this level non-negligible" until more solid buying support is established. The main support below is referenced at Bitcoin's realized price of about $54,000; the upper resistance is at the 1 to 3-month cost basis of $82,200, as well as a dense area of short-term positions above $84,000.Technical analyst CryptoPatel stated that Bitcoin's recent rise to $76,000 is merely a lower high, and the higher time frame structure "points to lower," with below $50,000 being the next truly noteworthy area to watch.

According to Jinshi Data, the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war remain bleak, but analysts believe that there is still a channel for reaching an agreement.Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, as mediators, are pushing for US and Iranian officials to meet as soon as this week. US President Trump and his political allies have expressed a positive attitude towards negotiations. It is reported that the US and Israel have temporarily removed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf from the assassination list for 4 to 5 days to create conditions for the negotiations to start.The demands of both sides after the war have significantly exceeded their pre-war positions. Iran demands that the US compensate for war damages, close military bases in the Middle East, and charge shipping companies passing through the Strait of Hormuz; the US demands that Iran stop uranium enrichment, restore freedom of navigation in the Strait, and limit its missile program and support for regional militias.Analysts believe that if both sides determine that the cost of war is unbearable, they may first reach a ceasefire agreement and postpone core issues such as uranium stock disposal, verification mechanisms, and sanctions relief to subsequent negotiations. Michael Singh from the Washington Institute stated that a path for a minimum ceasefire agreement to proceed alongside a complete agenda is still feasible.

The price of Bitcoin continues to be pressured below $72,000, and four on-chain data points indicate weakening market demand, putting short-term upward potential under pressure: 1. Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) is close to zero, indicating that large holders are reducing or stopping their accumulation of BTC. This trend is similar to early 2025 when the price of Bitcoin fell to $74,500. Small to medium-sized holding entities (less than 1,000 BTC) are also showing a "distribution or inactive" state.Santiment points out that Bitcoin whale activity is "historically low," with only 6,417 transactions exceeding $100,000 last week, and transactions over $1 million dropping to 1,485, the lowest level since October 2024. Analysts say that smart money is taking a cautious wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act and the war outlook.CryptoQuant's network activity index has been declining since August 2025, reflecting a decrease in overall on-chain demand. The fundamental indicators from Bitcoin Vector also show weak network liquidity and growth, with market conditions described as "stably lacking support." Short-term increases rely more on capital flow, short covering, or external catalysts rather than natural growth.Bitcoin's hash rate has significantly decreased to 813 EH/s over the past few weeks, down 22% from 1.2 ZH/s on March 5. Rising energy costs and geopolitical conflicts have led to hash rate earnings of less than $34 per PH/s/day, with most miners facing losses. Token Metrics analysts warn that if the difficulty drops more than 5% within a week, the exit of miners may accelerate, potentially increasing spot selling pressure further.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin's performance last week showed significant divergence. Although it briefly rose to a high of $76,000, it subsequently fell back due to the impact of PPI data, statements from the Federal Reserve, and tensions in the Middle East, with a weekend low of around $68,000.Despite the increased short-term volatility, Bitcoin overall remains above its opening price, while the S&P 500 index has shown more fluctuations. Market analysis suggests that if bulls have enough confidence to push the price above the $72,000 range, there may be an "air gap" between $72,000 and $82,000 above, which is a relatively sparse area of transactions and resistance, allowing for a potential rapid price increase.The current market focus is on whether macro data and geopolitical situations will continue to disrupt the performance of risk assets, and whether Bitcoin can re-establish sustained upward momentum to return to previous high ranges.

Greeks.live posted an analysis on platform X, indicating that Bitcoin is currently maintaining a rebound at $71,000, with the crisis of decline temporarily alleviated. The implied volatility (IV) across various major maturities has shown a significant decline, with mid to short-term IV dropping over 5% from its peak and more than 3% compared to two days ago. Ethereum's mid to short-term IV has decreased over 8% from its peak and more than 5% compared to two days ago.Skew has fully rebounded, with many put options established during the crisis being closed out, restoring a balance between bearish and bullish forces. This Friday marks the quarterly expiration, with over 40% of options expiring, and the most concentrated strike at $75,000 remains a strong resistance level. (Note: Skew typically refers to the difference in implied volatility of options with different strike prices; an upward movement in this indicator usually indicates a warming market risk appetite and an increase in bullish sentiment.)

According to CoinDesk, amidst the rising uncertainty in the U.S.-Iran situation and weakening expectations for macro liquidity, Bitcoin remains fluctuating above $70,000, demonstrating strong market resilience.Despite facing multiple bearish factors, including the complete pricing in of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for the year, tightening regulation on stablecoins (Circle's stock price drop), and news that Bhutan may sell about $30 million in BTC, Bitcoin's pullback has been limited and the decline short-lived.Analysts believe that when prices do not decline despite the release of numerous negative factors, it usually indicates strong potential buying interest. Coupled with the factors of this cycle's options expiration, the market may have the momentum to rebound to $75,000.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo tweeted that the FTX bankruptcy liquidation team is selling off assets, including a large amount of locked SOL, and is selling locked tokens at a discount to hedge funds through legal agreements.After buying at over 60% off, the funds hedge price risks by shorting futures like SOL, obtaining about 70%-80% risk-free returns. Subsequently, other project parties and foundations sold locked tokens early to hedge funds and hedged through the futures market, transferring the "alpha" that should belong to ordinary investors to market-neutral funds, resulting in lackluster performance for most crypto projects from 2023 to 2025, while BTC outperformed relatively.Woo believes that the selling pressure related to the next market cycle may have been released in advance and advises ordinary investors to hold only BTC.

According to market news, influenced by the U.S. suspension of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, the geopolitical risk premium has decreased, leading to a drop in Brent crude oil prices, while Bitcoin has regained the $70,000 mark yesterday.Market analysis indicates that if navigation in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and oil prices stabilize around $100, Bitcoin is expected to test the resistance range of $74,000 to $76,000; if the situation worsens again, Bitcoin may fall back to the $65,000 range. If the easing continues, institutional buying on dips could push Bitcoin up to $80,000. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and the dot plot showed that 14 officials expect zero or only one rate cut in 2026, indicating that the macro environment still poses restrictions on risk assets.As of the week of March 22, Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $708 million in a single day, the largest in two months, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a record weekly inflow of $160.8 million. The performance gap between Bitcoin and gold has significantly narrowed, with gold experiencing its largest weekly decline since 1983 last week, dropping over 10%.

Greeks.live posted an analysis on platform X, indicating that Bitcoin is currently maintaining a rebound at $71,000, with the crisis of decline temporarily alleviated. The implied volatility (IV) across various major maturities has shown a significant decline, with the mid to short-term IV dropping over 5% from its peak and more than 3% compared to two days ago. Ethereum's mid to short-term IV has decreased over 8% from its peak and more than 5% compared to two days ago.Skew has fully rebounded, with many put options established during the crisis being closed out, restoring a balance between bearish and bullish forces. This Friday marks the quarterly expiration, with over 40% of options expiring, and the most concentrated $75,000 remains a strong resistance level. (Note: Skew typically refers to the difference in implied volatility of options with different strike prices; an upward movement in this indicator usually indicates a warming of market risk appetite and an increase in bullish sentiment.)

Macquarie Bank global strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry stated in a report that it is still too early to have high expectations for a "peace agreement" in the Middle East to be reached in the coming days, as the demands from both sides still seem difficult to reconcile. The idea of getting the U.S. to abandon its demands regarding Iran's nuclear assets, or that the U.S. would simply withdraw its bases in the Gulf region, is unrealistic.At this stage, it is also unlikely to see Iran abandon its support for its proxy forces. However, this war is unlikely to last beyond mid-April, as by then the threat from Iran is likely to be eliminated. Once the threat is removed, the U.S. will hold the upper hand in any subsequent negotiations.

According to a report by Cointelegraph, an analysis report by Forrester senior analyst Meng Liu states that Stripe's newly launched Machine Payment Protocol (MPP) may mark a turning point for micropayments.The analyst noted that micropayments typically refer to small transactions worth a few cents or a few dollars, which have long struggled to gain widespread adoption due to cumbersome digital checkout processes and reluctance to approve small charges. However, AI agents executing payments while completing tasks, such as paying for data access or using online services, eliminate these barriers.

According to The Block, analysts from the research and brokerage firm Bernstein pointed out that Circle and Coinbase are the main tools for gaining exposure to the growth of stablecoins, due to the partnership between the two companies around USDC and the emerging role of stablecoins in smart agent payments, which could become an important driver of their future growth.In a report released on Monday, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote, "We believe that smart agent payments provide an upside optionality for stablecoins. This is not a factor that currently has a substantial impact on the demand for stablecoins, but in the future smart agent economy, stablecoins may play a certain role." The analysts noted that so-called machine payments refer to transactions initiated, authorized, and completed by software or autonomous devices, rather than by human operation. These payments differ from automatic bill payments or subscription models; they are essentially programmatic, enabling real-time decision-making, price negotiation, and instant settlement without human intervention.Bernstein believes that stablecoins have a natural advantage in this environment because of their programmability, instant settlement capabilities, support for micropayments, and global reach. Payment logic such as escrow, conditional payments, or revenue distribution can be directly embedded in stablecoins, allowing smart agents to complete transactions without connecting to banks or waiting for confirmations.The report also pointed out that transactions can be settled in seconds, allowing AI agents to pay for computing power or data in real-time; high-throughput blockchains and state channels make large-scale micropayments economically viable; at the same time, stablecoins have cross-border attributes, eliminating the need to rely on SWIFT, correspondent banking systems, or foreign exchange conversions, thereby further reducing transaction costs.

According to CoinDesk analysis, as the pressures from scalability challenges, quantum technology, and artificial intelligence continue to grow, Ethereum is at a critical juncture in high-risk balancing strategies. In the first three months of 2026, the Ethereum ecosystem faces multiple structural pressures. Vitalik Buterin sharply criticized the Layer2 scaling path at the beginning of the year, pointing out that many Rollup designs rely on centralized components and isolated environments, failing to truly inherit the security guarantees of the mainnet, leading to ecosystem fragmentation and inconsistent security assumptions.Meanwhile, the Ethereum Foundation has incorporated the threat of quantum computing into its recent planning, advancing research on LeanVM and post-quantum signature schemes. Internally, Tomasz Stańczak, the co-executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, has left after about a year in office, a change seen as a signal of the foundation's internal realignment of priorities. Additionally, the foundation is accelerating its layout for decentralized AI research, attempting to position Ethereum as the "trust layer" for AI systems, used for verifying outputs, coordinating agents, and supporting machine-to-machine economic activities.Overall, Ethereum can no longer handle these issues in isolation; they are interwoven. The network is being pulled in multiple directions simultaneously, making it increasingly difficult to maintain balance. Unlike previous cycles, the current predicament is more about structure than short-term momentum. The short-term focus remains on mainnet scaling, with the planned Glamsterdam upgrade set to be a litmus test to determine whether the Ethereum network can successfully transform into a robust, quantum-resistant "trust layer" supporting the global AI economy.

Data shows that the economic pressure on Bitcoin mining is intensifying. The current average production cost per coin is about $88,000, while the current Bitcoin price is approximately $69,200, meaning miners are losing nearly $19,000 per BTC, resulting in an overall loss of about 21%. Meanwhile, the overall mining difficulty has decreased by about 7.8%, marking the second-largest drop within 2026, reflecting the exit of computing power and rising network pressure.Analysis suggests that rising energy prices, combined with the tense situation in the Middle East, further increase mining costs. Electricity costs remain under pressure, and if miners are forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations, it could create additional selling pressure on the market. If Bitcoin prices continue to stay below the cost line and difficulty continues to decrease, the process of miners clearing out may continue, putting pressure on the spot market structure in the short term.

According to CoinDesk, influenced by Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran and threats to strike power facilities, Bitcoin quickly fell back over the weekend, dropping below the $69,200 mark, with a 24-hour decline of about 2.2%, and a weekly decline expanding to 3.1%. Affected by market sentiment, mainstream crypto assets weakened simultaneously: Ethereum fell to about $2,114, while XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and others recorded varying degrees of decline.This week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and its dovish stance should have supported risk assets, but the ongoing war risk news has made traders hesitant to make significant unilateral bets. Analysts believe that if Iran does not restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline, the conflict may escalate further to the level of energy infrastructure, compounded by disruptions to about 20% of global oil and gas transportation, which may continue to suppress the performance of risk assets.

According to BitcoinNews, if oil prices rise to $180 in the coming months, BTC may face pressure.Energy data tracking agency Vortexa predicts that oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz will drop to about 7.5 million barrels per day, a trend that could drive up inflation, delay interest rate cuts, and tighten liquidity. Against this backdrop, BTC could fall to $51,000.