analysis

According to CoinDesk, amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran for about six weeks, the Bitcoin market is clearly dividing into two camps: "passive buyers" represented by Strategy and spot ETFs continue to absorb chips, while whales, mining companies, and some sovereign holders are turning to reduce their holdings.The selling side is showing clear signs: whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to significant net selling, with the change in holdings this year moving from approximately +200,000 coins to -188,000 coins; publicly listed mining companies are also concentrating on reducing their holdings under high cost pressure, with weekly sales exceeding 19,000 BTC. Additionally, sovereign holders like Bhutan have reduced their Bitcoin reserves by about 70% since October 2024.Analysis indicates that despite market sentiment once being in an extreme panic zone, Bitcoin prices have remained fluctuating in the range of $65,000 to $73,000, showing that the price "bottom" mainly relies on support from a few institutional buyers. The current market buyer base continues to narrow, and future trends will depend on whether institutional capital inflows can continue and break through key resistance zones.

According to Cointelegraph, after the release of the U.S. CPI data, Bitcoin briefly rose to $73,000, attempting to refresh the new high for the phase. The data shows that overall inflation in the U.S. is slightly lower than market expectations, but the significant rise in energy prices has created a divergence signal.Specifically, the U.S. CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with the month-on-month data 0.1% lower than expected; among them, energy prices increased by 10.9%, and gasoline prices surged by 21.2% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 1967.The financial market's reaction was relatively restrained, with U.S. stocks opening basically flat, and Bitcoin did not experience significant fluctuations. Meanwhile, influenced by previous PCE data, the market has largely ruled out the possibility of a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.On the trading front, analysts believe that Bitcoin is operating within a converging range. If it attempts to hit key highs again in the short term, the market's reaction will become an important signal for subsequent trends, with around $74,000 seen as a key liquidity area.

According to The Block, Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate at high levels this week, with prices remaining above $72,000, influenced by the situation in the Middle East and U.S. CPI inflation data. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $358 million, while Ethereum funds saw an additional approximately $85 million in funding.Analysts point out that although the risk premium has decreased due to the ceasefire in the Middle East, the market has not yet returned to normal, with oil prices, interest rates, and crypto assets closely linked. The March CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, with rising energy costs being the main driver. Institutional investors remain cautious about risks, and the options market indicates that summer volatility may tend to calm down. The current Bitcoin trend is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with traders waiting for more data to determine the subsequent direction.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen nearly 7% since Sunday, but the upward momentum has slowed after reaching the $72,000 range, with institutional fund direction unclear. The market is focused on two major uncertainties: the U.S. March CPI data (expected to exceed 3% year-on-year, driven by energy prices) and the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend.The options market shows that institutions are simultaneously favoring $80,000 call options on Deribit and BlackRock's IBIT-related call options while maintaining a high proportion of put options to hedge against downside risks. If the CPI exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, putting pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly instructed to initiate negotiations with Lebanon, following Trump's request for Israel to reduce military actions to maintain the ceasefire process. After the news was released, Bitcoin quickly surged by about 3%, currently reported at approximately $72,300, with a 24-hour increase of about 2%, significantly outperforming mainstream crypto assets; Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all saw increases of less than 1%. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks also stopped their decline and rebounded, while oil prices fell back from their intraday highs.It is noteworthy that there has been a clear divergence in the movements of Bitcoin and tech stocks, with their 20-day rolling correlation coefficient dropping to about 0.34, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from tech stocks and is more driven by macro geopolitical factors and risk aversion sentiment.

According to CoinDesk, as market sentiment improves, the Bitcoin options market is showing a significant shift. The call options with a strike price of $80,000 on Deribit have become the most popular trades, with an open interest exceeding $1.6 billion, surpassing the previously dominant $60,000 put options (with an open interest of about $1.41 billion). Analysts believe that the recent temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has led to a decline in oil prices, easing inflation expectations, which may enhance the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby benefiting risk assets including Bitcoin.In addition, asset management firm 21Shares stated that with continued inflows into ETFs and increased institutional holdings, if the geopolitical situation eases and the regulatory environment improves, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $100,000 by the end of the second quarter. However, risks remain in the market; the current ceasefire situation is relatively fragile, and if the conflict in the Middle East escalates again, a rebound in oil prices could suppress market risk appetite, thereby limiting Bitcoin's upside potential.

According to The Defiant, independent on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov's latest research found that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket are in a losing position.The report analyzed 2.5 million wallet addresses, and Sergeenkov discovered that over the past year, only 2% of traders on the platform have accumulated profits exceeding $1,000, while only 0.033% (i.e., 840 addresses) of traders have made profits of $100,000 on the Polymarket platform."Most traders just come to trade for a while and then leave," the report concluded. The research found that the probability of making $5,000 in profit per month decreases month by month. Among 6,600 traders who averaged over $5,000 in monthly profits, only 2.6% remained active for more than a year.

According to statistics from DeFi analysts, affected by the bear market, 21 cryptocurrency projects have recently announced closures or significant reductions in services, covering the fields of DeFi, NFT, wallets, and gaming.Among them, Leap Wallet will completely shut down all products on May 28, and users need to migrate their assets to Keplr or MetaMask as soon as possible. Magic Eden has decided to close ME Wallet and focus on the NFT market and infrastructure on Solana, with the wallet ceasing operations on May 1. Fantasy Top plans to take non-core functions offline in mid-June to concentrate resources on prediction market games.In the DeFi sector, Angle Protocol has stopped its stablecoin business due to reduced activity and increased competition, while ZeroLend and Polynomial Finance have scaled back services due to insufficient liquidity and low trading volume. The NFT platforms Nifty Gateway and Sound.xyz have closed some operations due to market changes and strategic adjustments.In addition, gaming projects like Runiverse and Pixiland Social have paused blockchain-related operations due to high development costs and regulatory uncertainties, while projects like Dmail, Yupp AI, and DataHaven have been forced to exit due to funding issues or market changes.Analysts believe that this industry reshuffle is a necessary reconfiguration of the market, and Web3 projects that prioritize actual utility and sustainable economic models will be more competitive in the future.

According to Crypto In America, the core disagreement between the U.S. cryptocurrency and banking industries regarding the stablecoin yield mechanism may be close to resolution. Several informed sources have revealed that both sides have initiated a new round of communication regarding the latest compromise plan. Although the details have not been disclosed, the overall expectation is becoming optimistic.A previous draft pushed by U.S. senators had sparked dissatisfaction in the industry, with institutions such as Coinbase and Stripe expressing concerns. The market is focused on the "Clarity Act," which is expected to enter the committee review stage later this month. If the yield issue is alleviated, the legislative focus will shift to remaining topics such as DeFi, tokenization, and token classification.In addition, a White House research report on stablecoin yields and their impact on the banking system has yet to be released. It is said that the overall conclusion of the study leans towards supporting the cryptocurrency industry, and the reason for the delay in publication remains unclear.

According to CoinDesk, with the expectation of a potential ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran boosting market risk appetite, it is reported that the ceasefire plan may take effect on Monday and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin's rise has driven the overall cryptocurrency market stronger, with mainstream assets like Ethereum and Solana also rising in tandem.The derivatives market is also showing bullish signals, with improvements in Bitcoin futures structure and a continued decline in 30-day implied volatility, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.8%, reinforcing the risk-on atmosphere. However, analysts point out that there is still uncertainty in the market rebound.Recent ceasefire news has been denied or debunked by Iran multiple times, and if a similar situation occurs again, the market may quickly reverse. Furthermore, even if an agreement is reached, there are still doubts about its binding nature on Israel, which may limit the sustainability of risk appetite. Overall, while Bitcoin has upward potential, macro variables remain key constraints.

According to Jin Shi reports, Middle East issue scholar Mohammad Ali Shabani stated in an interview that he believes U.S. President Trump is ready to fulfill his threat to strike Iran's critical infrastructure, which poses a serious risk of escalating the regional situation. Iran, on the other hand, has conveyed its signal of "not backing down" to the U.S. by launching attacks on Kuwaiti infrastructure. He added, "The current situation is somewhat similar to a standoff, with neither side able to exit gracefully. In this context, I believe the possibility of a serious escalation in the region within the next 24 hours is very high."

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin chips has currently fallen below $100,000, now at only $93,600. This means that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market average breakeven point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-position trapped chips chose to cut losses and exit, lowering the average cost of overall floating loss chips.It is also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC, while in the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has exceeded 2 at least. When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, at which point the price of BTC is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this round would need to drop to $46,800, but historical patterns may not always hold true. This bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the market related to whether Bitcoin will reach $60,000 or $80,000 first on Polymarket, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the profit and loss supply of Bitcoin has reached a typical level for a bear market. Currently, about 11.2 million Bitcoins are still in profit relative to their purchase price. This is not far from the lowest level of profitable Bitcoins during the last bear market (9 million).On the other hand, approximately 8.2 million Bitcoins are currently in a loss state, while the number of loss Bitcoins during the last bear market was about 10.6 million. This indicates that the market is significantly undervalued, similar to the situation during the last bear market.

Analyst Murphy stated that the average on-chain turnover cost of BTC held for 1-2 years (yellow line) has crossed with the average on-chain turnover cost of BTC held for 1-3 months (orange line). This signal can be almost 100% confirmed at the on-chain data level, marking that BTC has officially entered the latter half of the bear market.Additionally, Murphy mentioned that the long-term valuation indicator CVDD for Bitcoin proposed by well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo reached $45,410 at the end of last month, a slow increase of only $506 since February 10. This reflects that early large whale holders have significantly reduced or even nearly stopped on-chain turnover.CVDD is one of the few indicators that has never failed in BTC's history—prices have always remained above CVDD, and bear market bottoms will only approach it infinitely but never fall below it. Therefore, even if there is a "final drop," BTC will not go below approximately $45,500, with a theoretical maximum decline of about 30%, but in reality, it is likely to be much smaller than that.

According to Cointelegraph, Riot Platforms' wallet transferred about 500 bitcoins on Wednesday, which may belong to the company's selling activities. As of now, the company has not publicly commented on this matter. Analysts believe this move may further exacerbate the selling wave of publicly listed bitcoin mining companies.Last week, another bitcoin mining company, MARA Holdings, disclosed the sale of approximately $1.1 billion in bitcoin to repurchase convertible bonds at a discount. Recently, several publicly listed bitcoin mining companies have cumulatively sold over 15,000 bitcoins to balance operational and investment needs. However, the trend of bitcoin mining companies selling off may not be a universal phenomenon, as bitcoin treasury companies, including Metaplanet, are still actively increasing their holdings.

According to on-chain analyst aryan's disclosure on the X platform, in the attack incident on the Drift protocol treasury, the attacker's address obtained funds through NEAR Intents 8 days ago but remained inactive until receiving a large amount of assets from the Drift treasury.The attacker transferred the funds to multiple money laundering addresses. Notably, these money laundering addresses received funds through Backpack yesterday, and Backpack should have conducted KYC verification on these accounts. Subsequently, the money laundering addresses transferred the funds to an Ethereum address via Wormhole, which had previously received funds through Tornado Cash.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin rose about 2% in March, ending a consecutive five-month decline, marking the first positive turn after the longest consecutive decline since 2018, with the market focusing on trend reversal signals. Historical data shows that similar rebounds often accompany strong recoveries after several months of decline.In 2019, there was an approximately 300% increase after consecutive declines, and some analysts believe that this round may have found a temporary bottom around the $60,000 mark. However, seasonal patterns indicate discrepancies in April's performance: since 2013, April has mostly seen gains, but in recent years, after a rise in March, the probability of a decline in April has increased, leaving short-term direction uncertain.In terms of price, BTC is currently trading around $68,000, with a key resistance zone between $69,000 and $70,000 above. Further up, attention is on the supply zone between $70,000 and $72,000. If it breaks through effectively, it may test $76,000 or even $80,000; conversely, if it faces pressure, the market may continue its oscillating pattern.