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According to The Block, on-chain derivatives platform Derive's analysis shows that Bitcoin options traders are building positions, betting that the market is bottoming out and is expected to rebound to $90,000. Derive's research director Sean Dawson pointed out that the market is showing signs of stability after several weeks of uncertainty.Bitcoin volatility has fallen back to the 50% range, which is typically associated with consolidation rather than panic selling. The options sentiment indicator, the 25-delta skew, has significantly rebounded from -15% in late February to around -7%, indicating that traders' defensive sentiment is weakening. Options flow shows that in contracts expiring on March 27, a large accumulation of call options at strike prices of $80,000 and $90,000 suggests that traders expect prices to rise to the $85,000 to $95,000 range. However, put options are still concentrated at $60,000 and $55,000, indicating that the market is maintaining necessary downside protection while being bullish.Bybit analysts noted that although the $70,000 level still poses resistance, the clarification of macro policies could restore market confidence and give rise to a strong bullish narrative.

According to on-chain analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888), the net position change of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) continues to show an upward trend.Data shows that from February 13 to February 26, a total of 14,127 Bitcoins held by long-term holders were spent, while 19,798 Bitcoins held by short-term holders (STH) were converted to long-term holdings. After offsetting the positives and negatives, the result remains positive, indicating that both long-term and short-term holdings have reduced turnover. Although market liquidity has decreased, selling pressure has also correspondingly weakened.

According to data from the crypto analysis platform Santiment, as of this Thursday, the number of independent wallets holding 100 or more bitcoins has reached 19,993, just 7 short of the 20,000 milestone, which Santiment expects to be achieved by Friday. Based on the current bitcoin price, each of these wallets is worth approximately $6.71 million.Santiment points out that the increase in the number of large-holding wallets indicates that the chips are being distributed among more large holders rather than concentrated in a few whales, which helps reduce the risk of price manipulation and is considered a bullish signal. However, the total supply of bitcoins held by this group has not changed, indicating that some long-term holders are still selling, which is one of the main reasons for the recent price pressure.Currently, bitcoin has fallen about 47% from its historical high of $126,100. Analyst Poppe states that bitcoin needs to form higher lows to continue the upward trend.

The stablecoin issuer Circle's stock price briefly rose above $90, reaching a new high for the year, before retreating to around $87. This followed the company's fourth-quarter performance, which exceeded market expectations, driving the stock price up approximately 30% after the earnings report was released. Bernstein analysts maintained an "outperform" rating on Circle, setting a target price of $190, believing that the company's performance shows a growth trend that has "clearly distinguished itself from the crypto market."The report noted that Circle's expansion in the infrastructure sector is bringing in new revenue sources with higher profit margins, rather than relying solely on stablecoin reserve earnings. Analysts stated that Circle's transaction-related revenue continues to grow, including blockchain rewards earned as a super validator on the Canton network. Meanwhile, the proportion of USDC directly held on the Circle platform has risen to 17% of the total supply, up from 14% in the previous quarter. The company expects the circulation of USDC to maintain an annual growth rate of about 40% in the future and anticipates that other business revenues, excluding reserve income, will reach approximately $170 million by 2026, up from about $110 million in 2025.Bernstein is also optimistic about Circle's expansion into new product areas, including the Arc platform, Circle Payments Network, and "automated payment" capabilities aimed at AI agents. At the same time, Mizuho analysts pointed out that as stablecoins are increasingly applied in new scenarios such as prediction markets, like the Polymarket platform, Circle's revenue structure is expected to further diversify. Overall, market attention is gradually shifting to whether Circle can establish a more balanced revenue structure during the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has fallen back to around $67,000 after failing to reclaim a key support level.Traders and analysts point out that the 200-week exponential moving average and the historical high from 2021 both pose resistance, with the 200-week EMA currently "acting as a resistance level." Historical experience suggests that if the price remains below this moving average, it will further lean towards a downward trend. Analysts generally remain cautious about whether the bear market has ended.Rekt Capital states that the shortest bear market in Bitcoin's history lasted 365 days, while the current bear market has only lasted about 140 days, making any discussion about the bear market being over "potentially premature."Trader Roman notes that previous bear market cycles saw declines close to 80%, while the current market has only retraced about 53% from the October 2025 peak, with no signs of reversal on the monthly and weekly charts. Most traders believe the trend remains unclear and caution is necessary.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform, stating that yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $500 million in inflows, marking the largest single-day increase in recent times. Over the past two days, the total inflow has reached approximately $750 million, coinciding with a period of strong pessimism in the market. He described this influx of funds as "hitting a home run during a slump in the game," providing a boost to the market.Year-to-date, Bitcoin ETFs have still seen a net outflow of less than $2 billion, but it remains unclear whether this marks the beginning of a true rebound or just a temporary "dead cat bounce."

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart posted on X platform that institutional investors submitting 13F reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reduced their Bitcoin ETF positions in the fourth quarter of 2025, with investment advisory firms and hedge funds being the two largest categories of institutions by position size, becoming the main sellers in the market.Overall, the reporting institutional investors that submitted 13F reports sold a total equivalent to approximately 25,000 Bitcoin worth of ETF shares in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that Bitcoin ETF holders sold fund shares worth 20,098 Bitcoins. This data is derived from the analysis of 13F filing documents. The 13F filing is a report that large institutional investors are required to submit periodically to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission detailing their holdings.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that, according to the 13F filings disclosed by the U.S. SEC, institutional investors sold a total of approximately 25,098 BTC worth of Bitcoin ETF shares in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a clear trend of reduction.Data shows that investment advisors and hedge funds are the main holders of Bitcoin ETFs, with Brevan Howard reducing its holdings the most, selling over 17,000 BTC worth of ETF positions. This round of selling occurred during the period when Bitcoin's price fell from over $120,000 in 2025 to below $85,000. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has further declined to around $64,000, and market sentiment remains in a state of extreme fear.

Presto Research Associate Researcher Min Jung stated that Bitcoin's drop below $63,000 seems to reflect a broad deterioration in cryptocurrency market sentiment rather than a single fundamental catalyst. In the short term, macro headlines, particularly those surrounding tariffs and resurfacing geopolitical uncertainties, are exacerbating the risk-off sentiment towards digital assets.Jung added, "It is noteworthy that even as traditional risk assets remain relatively resilient, cryptocurrencies have performed poorly recently. This divergence suggests that the sell-off is not purely driven by macro factors, but also reflects weak marginal demand, thinning liquidity conditions, and ongoing deleveraging within the crypto-native market."Bitrue Research Director Andri Fauzan Adziima stated, "We have seen massive long liquidations, with hundreds of millions evaporating, funding rates remaining negative, a sharp decline in open interest, and the futures market clearly leaning bearish. Short-term holders are suffering significant losses, but long-term holders have not yet begun large-scale selling; on-chain HODL signals indicate that some are quietly accumulating during this strategic de-risking process."Adziima pointed out that the $60,000-$63,000 range is a key support area for Bitcoin. If the price can hold steady at or above this level, the market may benefit from the damage caused to shorts by negative funding rates, creating conditions for a classic "squeeze after a washout." The analyst added that potential easing of macroeconomic conditions or a return of ETF funds could further support this trend.Adziima stated that, on the other hand, if it falls below $60,000, in the worst-case scenario, an accelerated chain liquidation due to worsening macro conditions could open the door to a drop towards the mid-$55,000s or even as low as $47,000. Adziima remarked, "At that point, we might ultimately force some long-term holders to capitulate, turning this into a deeper bear market extension before the true cycle bottom arrives."

Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that the recent pullback in Bitcoin has led to a significant surge in realized losses, reaching an all-time high. This is one of the largest realized loss events in Bitcoin's history, comparable to the 2018 bear market crash, the March 2020 COVID-19 plunge, and the loss peaks during the 2022 Luna/FTX collapse.A large number of holders are capitulating, either selling at a loss or transferring their BTC while in a losing position. Such extreme loss realization typically indicates panic selling in the market and passive liquidations. Historically, similar large-scale surges in realized losses often occur at or near cyclical bottoms, as this represents the complete clearing out of "weak hands" and high-leverage positions.It is noteworthy that the Sharpe Ratio has dropped to its lowest level since the last bottom; the market is experiencing a massive capitulation event with extremely high realized losses; market sentiment has nearly reached a freezing point. The only difference this time is that Bitcoin is down about 50% from its historical high, rather than 80%. The bottom is near.

On-chain analyst Specter posted on the X platform, stating that IoTeX may have experienced a private key leak incident, with all assets in its token safe being transferred out by attackers, resulting in a total loss of approximately $4.3 million.On-chain data shows that the attackers transferred multiple contract assets, including USDC, USDT, IOTX, PAYG, WBTC, and BUSD. Subsequently, the stolen assets were exchanged for ETH, of which about 45 ETH have been transferred to the Bitcoin network via a cross-chain bridge. The incident is still under further confirmation.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform, pointing out that the cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs (the most important data) peaked at $63 billion last October and is currently at $53 billion, meaning there has been a net increase of $53 billion in just two years. He stated that his team (more optimistic than most peers) originally predicted an inflow of only $5 to $15 billion in the first year. This data is of significant reference value for understanding the $8 billion outflow of ETFs after Bitcoin dropped 45% and the relationship between Bitcoin and Wall Street. Overall, it appears that Wall Street's influence remains positive.

Tom Lee's Fundstrat digital asset strategy head Sean Farrell published the latest Ethereum analysis, stating that the current average cost of ETH is $2,241, while the current price is $1,934, indicating an average loss of 22% for investors.Comparing the current decline with historical lows, in 2022, the average maximum loss for investors reached 39%, and in 2025, the average maximum loss was 21%. Applying these two figures to the current average cost of $2,241 suggests that ETH could drop to a low of $1,367 or $1,770.Based on the realized loss percentile analysis since 2017, the current average loss is at a historical high of 9%, indicating a high level of loss. The implied 12-month return rate is +81%. This suggests that the price of Ethereum is nearing the bottom. In the long term, Ethereum's risk/reward ratio appears to be positive.Tom Lee himself shared this analysis, stating that it helps in thinking about investor capital flows and position allocation near the lows.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel posted on social media, stating that data from the past week reveals an increasingly widening gap between institutional demand narratives and actual capital flows. ETF inflow momentum remains unstable, while net exchange flows continue to stay positive, with tokens flowing into rather than out of trading platforms. Over the past 7 days, the total net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached 11,042 BTC, with only two trading days recording net inflows.On February 12, the single-day outflow reached 6,120 BTC (approximately $416 million), marking the largest outflow day of this period. On February 17 and 18, there were consecutive trading days with outflows of 1,520 BTC and 1,980 BTC, respectively, indicating that institutional accumulation momentum has yet to form.Meanwhile, supply on trading platforms continues to increase. Since early February, net exchange flows have remained positive, ranging from +391 BTC to +841 BTC over the past week. Today's reading is +553 BTC, continuing a trend of positive inflows for two consecutive weeks. This stands in stark contrast to the negative pattern (tokens flowing out of exchanges) observed in January.Axel noted that both key indicators point in the same direction: over the past week, the ETF channel saw an outflow of 11,042 BTC, while supply on trading platforms continues to grow. Institutional demand has not only failed to absorb the new supply entering the market but has also become an additional source of selling pressure. The establishment of a positive accumulation trend requires at least three consecutive trading days of positive ETF net inflows, along with net exchange flows turning negative (indicating tokens are being withdrawn from exchanges for custody accumulation). The ETF flows over the next 3 to 5 trading days will be a key variable in determining market direction.

Analyst Willy Woo states that I have bad news for those who are perpetually bullish: the bear market trend for Bitcoin is still ongoing and should be divided into three phases:Phase One ------ The Beginning. At this point, Bitcoin's liquidity has collapsed, a situation that occurred in the third quarter of 2025, and prices began to fall. Bitcoin, as a small-scale asset, is extremely sensitive to liquidity. Because of this, it often leads the global macroeconomy into a bear market, typically several months in advance. In other words, when smart money exits, Bitcoin reacts swiftly. During this phase, die-hard bulls will blindly claim that this is just a pullback within the bull market, but they cannot provide any solid evidence of capital inflows, only fabricating stories.Phase Two ------ The Global Stock Market Turns Bearish. This is a behemoth with a scale of up to $100 trillion, akin to a giant supertanker—moving slowly. This is the mid-phase of the Bitcoin bear market, where all risk assets are declining, and there is no doubt that we are in a bear market.Phase Three ------ Signs of Dawn. In this phase, liquidity begins to improve, capital outflows peak and stabilize. Investors are returning. The final price crash usually occurs during this phase, possibly shortly before or after the peak of capital outflows.Within the current bear market framework, Bitcoin is currently in Phase One, about to enter Phase Two.

According to Forbes, over the past few weeks, the price of Ethereum has continued to fluctuate narrowly around $2,000. Several market observers have pointed out that this reflects Ethereum being caught in a "narrative gap."Analyst Callan Sarre stated, "For the past few years, the story of Ethereum has been simple—L2 carries the scale, while the base layer remains lean and secure. Now, L2 has processed billions of dollars in weekly trading volume, with fees dropping over 90%, but the question is where long-term value accumulates." The market is pushing zero-knowledge technology and privacy features closer to the base layer, "for traders clinging to old models, it feels like the ground is shifting beneath their feet."Sarre emphasized the contradiction between transparency and institutional demand: "Today, every Ethereum transaction is completely public and transparent, which doesn't work for CFOs managing corporate treasuries or funds deploying nine-figure positions. If Ethereum is to attract trillions in institutional capital, privacy must be built into the protocol layer."Grayscale began distributing staking rewards to U.S. Ethereum ETF holders in January, and BlackRock has also applied for its staking ETH fund. PrimeXBT senior market analyst Jonatan Randin stated, "This changes the nature of Ethereum ETFs—not just price exposure, but income-generating products." He emphasized that the growth of the options market is reshaping the asset's volatility characteristics, "the options market around spot ETFs introduces dynamics like covered calls and dealer hedging that didn't exist two years ago."

According to Cointelegraph, analyst Yashu Gola stated that the current technical indicators and on-chain data both point to short-term downside risks for Bitcoin.A typical "bear flag" pattern is forming on the Bitcoin daily chart. This structure began with a "flagpole" that dropped sharply to the $60,000 area, followed by price consolidation within a converging trend line, consistently pressured by key moving averages, with weak momentum.If the price clearly breaks below the lower boundary of the flag, it could further test the $56,000 level within two months, representing a decline of about 20% from the current level. Conversely, if it breaks above the upper boundary around $72,700 (coinciding with the 20-day moving average), it could invalidate this bearish structure.On-chain data platform CryptoQuant shows that the Bitcoin "whale inflow ratio" (7-day average) has surged to a historic high of 0.619, well above the 0.40 at the beginning of the month. This indicator tracks the total inflow of the top ten transactions, and its rise is typically interpreted as increased selling pressure from whales.Meanwhile, the Greed and Fear Index is signaling a potential "bottoming signal": the 21-day moving average has crossed below the zero line and is now turning upwards. Historically, this combination often appears alongside a "sustained bottom," and while a brief downturn cannot be ruled out, the possibility of a rebound is accumulating.

According to DL News, Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, stated that cryptocurrency traders are expected to drive Bitcoin prices back to $100,000. Shawn Young said, "Although buyers are not purchasing digital assets on a large scale like they did a few months ago, the amount of Bitcoin they buy daily still exceeds the daily mining output. This creates a net positive supply dynamic that could trigger a short-term rebound." Some analysts warn that the situation could worsen.Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone even predicts that Bitcoin prices could evaporate by 85%, eventually falling to $10,000. His reasoning is that the soaring stock market has siphoned off market volatility, while gold and silver have outperformed Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. Additionally, the industry seems to have lost confidence in President Trump's push for cryptocurrency, which will drive prices lower.Researchers like Ben Harvey from crypto investment firm Keyrock believe that Bitcoin's next move will not be determined by internal crypto factors but will depend on macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and institutional investors buying Bitcoin ETFs. Bloomberg data shows that concerns over an AI spending bubble have triggered a surge in credit default swap trading—these complex financial contracts were almost ignored a year ago. These contracts are similar to insurance, paying out when companies cannot repay their debts.Currently, Alphabet's nearly $900 million debt and Meta's nearly $700 million debt are linked to these contracts. This means that hedge funds are increasingly using these derivatives to hedge against downside risks. In other words, investors are hedging against a significant market sell-off that could drag down Bitcoin prices.Tech stocks, referred to as "AI panic trades," have been under pressure since January. The BlackRock flagship tech ETF (which tracks industry leaders like Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir) has seen a decline of just over 23% year-to-date.Analysts expect that large tech companies will increase their borrowing from $165 billion in 2025 to $400 billion this year to invest in AI data centers, which could total trillions of dollars in investment costs—if AI projects fail to generate returns, investor risks will increase. Young stated that Bitcoin trading trends are aligning with tech stocks, thus "being the first to bear the impact of liquidity or capital shifts."

According to Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of Bitmine, in an interview with Decrypt, the market should be very close to the bottom, as the current market sentiment is extremely poor and the price trend is also very bad.Fundstrat's analyst Tom Demar has been saying since last November that BTC would drop to $60,000. He initially believed that the bottom for ETH should be around $2,400, but if it cannot hold, it would bottom out near $1,890. He thinks it just needs to dip one more time, which would be the lowest point, indicating that we are very close to the end of the downward trend.Previously, Fundstrat stated in its 2026 cryptocurrency strategy advice to internal clients that the market would experience a deeper correction in the first half of the year, with a target price for BTC of $60,000 to $65,000; a target price for ETH of $1,800 to $2,000; and a target price for SOL of $50 to $75. However, Tom Lee himself has publicly claimed that both BTC and ETH will reach new highs in January 2026.