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According to a report by Jinshi, StoneX analyst Matt Simpson stated in a research report that based on technical analysis, the US dollar index may see a slight increase in the short term. Currently, the US dollar index is maintaining around the level of 98.249, and on Thursday, the 200-day simple moving average formed a "slightly bullish" pattern, with the two-day relative strength index in an extremely oversold condition. However, there are multiple resistance levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average at 98.44 that the bulls need to test.

CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten stated that the Bitcoin funding rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, and historical patterns show that such signals often coincide with market bottoms. According to Glassnode data, the seven-day moving average of the funding rate has dropped to about -0.005%.The funding rate is the fee that long and short positions pay each other periodically in perpetual contracts to keep the contract price aligned with the spot market. When the rate is positive, longs pay shorts, reflecting bullish market sentiment; when the rate is negative, shorts pay longs, indicating a bearish market. Despite the funding rate being persistently negative from March to April this year, Bitcoin still oscillated upward from the $60,000 to $65,000 range to about $75,000. Historically, a deeply negative funding rate often coincides with Bitcoin's phase bottoms: during the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, Bitcoin fell to about $3,000; it dropped to $30,000 during China's mining ban announcement in 2021; it hit a low of about $15,000 during the FTX collapse in November 2022; and it briefly fell below $20,000 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023. During the yen arbitrage trade closure in August 2024 and the "Liberation Day" sell-off in April 2025, negative funding rates also appeared alongside phase lows. The continued negative funding rate indicates that even if the price trend is positive, short positions remain at a high level. This divergence may suggest that the market is climbing within a "wall of worry," and a large number of short positions could become fuel for further price increases.

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza reiterated a buy rating on Bitcoin reserve company MSTR and raised the target price to $385.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin rose over 5% on Tuesday, reaching a daily high of $76,120, the highest level since February 6, successfully reclaiming the key support area of $75,000—where the 100-day exponential moving average and simple moving average intersect. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin broke through the upper boundary of the ascending triangle at $73,000 on Monday.Analyst CryptoBlockto stated, "Bitcoin broke through $76,000, standing above the March high, sending a bullish signal of renewed strength." He pointed out that if the daily close stabilizes above the $75,000 moving average area, it will confirm the breakout of the pattern, with the next resistance level at the psychological barrier of $80,000, and the measured target of the ascending triangle pointing to $89,050, about 18% higher than the current price. The daily RSI has now risen to 63, having previously fallen to the oversold area of 15 on February 6.On-chain data shows that the average daily number of Bitcoin transactions has increased by 62% since 2026, reaching 765,130 on April 5, a new 17-month high, comparable to the level when Bitcoin first broke $100,000 during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Analyst CW8900 stated, "The current daily transaction count for Bitcoin is higher than when BTC was priced at $120,000, indicating that the network is exhibiting bullish behavior."Glassnode noted in its latest market report that the total fee income from Bitcoin over the past week increased by 4%, rising to $153,700, indicating "increased on-chain demand," and stated, "This growth suggests a rise in network activity and may indicate that users' willingness to increase fee spending for priority processing of transactions is changing."

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam pointed out on the X platform that as the price of Bitcoin continues to rebound, the implied volatility (IV) of major term options is actually decreasing, and while IV is falling, the skew is clearly positively biased. The main reason for this phenomenon is that the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran is gradually calming down, and the market's concerns about war risks are dissipating, leading to a significant drop in the prices of put options.The trading on the order book and in bulk is relatively balanced, with major transactions concentrated in the current and next month. The market is readjusting its position layout, and the main participants have reached a consensus on the future market expectations—low volatility expectations are becoming the mainstream in the market.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Bitcoin ETFs have once again recorded a solid week of inflows, and overall funds have officially turned positive. Although the previous outflows were not significant, against the backdrop of limited price increase momentum, funds have still successfully "filled the gap," demonstrating strong resilience.

According to Cointelegraph, Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and cryptocurrency market analyst, stated that Bitcoin's current recovery is relatively weak. The geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures caused by the Middle East war will dominate the market trends in the second quarter of 2026, with interest rate cuts expected no earlier than the third or fourth quarter. He pointed out that for BTC to reach $90,000, three conditions must be met: easing geopolitical tensions, oil prices falling back to around $80, and weakening economic data.Currently, BTC is priced at approximately $71,276, facing resistance at $74,000, and still operating below the 200-day exponential moving average. Previously, BTC rose above $73,000 on April 6 but fell back due to the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations and Trump's announcement to block the Strait of Hormuz. There are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve FOMC regarding interest rate cuts in 2026, and CME Fedwatch data shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the meetings on April 29 and June 17 is over 98%.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current Bitcoin market is entering an early stabilization phase, with long-term holding behavior gradually strengthening, indicating that the market structure may be undergoing a change.Data shows that since October, the number of BTC held for over one year has increased from about 12 million to approximately 12.4 million. Although the increase is still moderate, it reflects a shift in market behavior towards long-term holding. Since mid-December, the 30-day change has consistently remained positive, indicating that investors are more inclined to continue holding rather than distributing their assets. Darkfost pointed out that this change typically signifies a transition from a speculation-dominated phase to a stronger long-term conviction phase. Historically, the proportion of long-term holdings usually declines significantly at market peaks and gradually rises during bear markets, so the current trend can be seen as an early stabilization signal for the market. However, he also emphasized that this indicator belongs to a long-term dimension and typically requires a longer time to form a clear trend, and we are still in the early stages.

Macro analyst Jordi Visser stated that although the market generally expects the cryptocurrency industry to enter a bear market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are less than 10% away from triggering key levels for a trend reversal.He pointed out that if Bitcoin breaks above $76,000 and Ethereum rises above $2,400, it could mark the beginning of a sustained upward trend for the year. Visser believes that the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the short term is low, a judgment that aligns with the pricing of the prediction market Kalshi, which currently estimates the probability of a recession in 2026 to be around 24%.He also noted that in the context of high inflation and a lack of clear growth momentum in traditional markets (such as the S&P 500), funds may continue to flow into asset classes with income potential. However, there are still divergences in the market; veteran trader Peter Brandt recently stated that the low point for Bitcoin this year may not have occurred yet, and prices could retest or even fall below the $60,000 range. Visser emphasized that the market should not be simply divided into bull and bear cycles, but should be judged from a longer-term structural and liquidity change perspective.

After 21 hours of negotiations, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that no agreement was reached, as Iran refused to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Trump had previously warned that if negotiations failed, he would implement "total destruction" against Iran. The Iranian conflict has shaken the cryptocurrency market for several weeks, compounded by tariff issues, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below $70,000 earlier this month.Before the negotiations began, crypto analysts indicated that if an agreement were reached, Bitcoin could rise to $80,000; if negotiations broke down, it might fall back to $65,000. Bulls noted that on-chain wallet data showed that the largest Bitcoin whales continued to buy during periods of intense geopolitical turmoil rather than selling. Their logic is that if the conflict escalates further and disrupts oil supply in the Persian Gulf, leading to rising oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold tend to perform well in such contexts.On the bearish side, gold trader and long-term Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff stated that as the conflict escalates, investors will flee from Bitcoin to gold. Peter Schiff predicted that Bitcoin would "collapse," claiming that gold is the only true safe-haven asset in wartime, and further suggested that insiders within the administration might be profiting from the volatility surrounding the conflict. If Trump follows through on his threat of "total destruction," both the stock market and the crypto market will almost certainly face simultaneous sell-offs.Regarding further developments, Vance maintained a firm stance at the press conference but did not rule out the possibility of continued negotiations. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon and the unfreezing of assets before participating in formal negotiations. For Bitcoin traders, the next 72 hours hinge on two questions: Can the ceasefire agreement hold, and will Trump escalate the conflict? Currently, there are still whales buying at the current price level, indicating that at least some large investors are betting on a stabilization of the situation.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that as the market focuses on the launch of the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF MSBT, the Bitcoin After Dark ETF (NGHT) was also launched this Wednesday. The product had a mediocre performance on its first day of trading, but trading volume significantly increased on the second day, and its future performance remains to be seen.Historical research shows that "night returns" often outperform daytime returns, but for long-term ETF investors, holding products like MSBT can cover both day and night returns, so the impact of the difference is limited. However, if NGHT sees strong inflows in the future, it may gain market recognition; conversely, it could quickly become marginalized. The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF, with its channel distribution advantage, is expected to achieve great success.

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market is generally stabilizing, with Bitcoin slightly fluctuating around $71,700 and Ethereum at $2,180, continuing the low volatility trend of the past few months.In terms of technical indicators, Bitcoin's daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to their tightest level since early 2024. Crypto analyst Eric Crown noted that since early February, Bitcoin's price has remained within the range of $63,000 to $75,000, and historically, whenever such a narrow range occurs, the price eventually experiences about a 40% fluctuation.According to CoinGlass's liquidation heat map, if Bitcoin breaks above $75,000, it will trigger upward momentum, forcing short sellers to cover their positions; if it falls below $70,000 in the short term, approximately $200 million in long positions betting on a breakout will be liquidated.One of the key catalysts on Friday is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The inflation rate for March is expected to be 3.3% year-on-year, driven by soaring energy prices. Higher inflation data often strengthens the dollar, which in turn puts pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

The latest U.S. PCE inflation data largely met expectations, easing market uncertainty, and Bitcoin's price stabilized after previously reaching around $73,000. Data shows that the core PCE year-on-year is 3%, and month-on-month is 0.4%. The market is also influenced by the easing situation between the U.S. and Iran, but analysts point out that the current PCE data has not yet reflected potential energy price shocks.Although the inflation data did not trigger significant market fluctuations, investors remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for this year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that compared to PCE, the upcoming CPI data to be released this week will have a more critical impact on the market, especially against the backdrop of oil price fluctuations. On the trading front, the market remains in a volatile range, with liquidity mainly concentrated in the $69,000 to $76,000 range. Trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that as long as the key support range holds, Bitcoin is expected to start a new round of upward momentum, targeting $80,000.

Crypto analyst Ali published a lengthy analysis on the X platform, pointing out that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has bottomed out, it is better to focus on whether the current volatility constitutes a "generational entry opportunity." Based on indicators such as long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution, the core "value range" of this cycle is defined.In terms of support, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that there is a significant concentration of chips in the range of approximately $63,111 to $70,685, forming the current main support zone; if it falls below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term trend perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line of the past decade (approximately $56,000 to $60,000), which historically has often corresponded to accumulation phases before major upward movements.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at about $71,200, and Ethereum is at $2,185, with the overall market maintaining a range-bound fluctuation. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warned that if Bitcoin cannot recover to $75,000, there is a risk of dropping to $10,000; Fundstrat founder Tom Lee believes that the market bottom has been established.In terms of derivatives, Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to 726,000 contracts, with the 24-hour CVD being positive for two consecutive days, and the funding rate slightly above zero, indicating an overall bullish tendency; the CVD and funding rates for ETH, XRP, and Solana are slightly negative. The volatility index continues to decline, with the market expecting price fluctuations of only about 2.5% around Friday's inflation data.Regarding altcoins, MANA and AERO each rose by about 6%, but MANA's increase was accompanied by a 25% surge in open interest, indicating it is mainly driven by leverage. The market is focused on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through $75,000 and establish support; if achieved, it may trigger a rotation of funds into oversold altcoin sectors.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts at First Citizens Bank stated in a report that the U.S. CPI data released on Friday is expected to reflect the transmission of the Iranian energy shock for the first time significantly. Driven by soaring energy costs, overall inflation will accelerate. The head of market and economic research at the bank pointed out that although core inflation is affected more mildly, the Federal Reserve will "ignore" the surge in energy-driven inflation, which will reinforce the Fed's long-standing stance of inaction and closely link potential rate cuts to the normalization of energy prices.

According to analyst Darkfost's data, after the news of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin saw an active buying volume of $2.7 billion (taker orders) in the Binance derivatives market within two hours.Analysts pointed out that the easing of geopolitical events pushed the price of Bitcoin up to around $71,700, indicating that investors are optimistic about risk assets in the short term, but are still influenced by subsequent geopolitical developments.

According to Cointelegraph, on-chain data and derivatives market indicators show that Ethereum buying power is returning, but analysts warn that bulls must defend the $2000 support level.CryptoQuant data shows that the net buying volume of Ethereum has remained positive since March 6, peaking at $140 million on March 16 and currently maintaining at $104 million. Net buying volume is an indicator of the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated, "This is the first time we have observed such a mechanism shift in the Ethereum derivatives market since the last bear market." He added that if this trend continues and the spot market and ETFs begin to follow suit, Ethereum is expected to restart its upward trend.In terms of futures open interest, the current position is 6.4 million ETH, close to the historical high of 7.8 million ETH set in July 2025, having gradually recovered from a low of 5 million ETH last October. The flow of funds into spot Ethereum ETFs also turned positive on Monday, with a net inflow of $120 million, the highest single-day net inflow since mid-March.On the price front, analyst Ted Pillows stated, "As long as the $2000 support level holds, Ethereum is likely to attack again; if it falls below this level, a new low for the year may follow." Glassnode's cost basis distribution data shows that over 3.5 million ETH have a holding cost concentrated around $2000; if this area is breached, the secondary support lies between $1750 and $1800, where approximately 1.36 million ETH were accumulated. If the price further breaks below the aforementioned support, the measured target of the symmetrical triangle points to $1460, about 30% lower than the current price.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that Musk is likely to use SPCX as the stock code for the SpaceX IPO, which was previously held by Matt Tuttle, but the related ETF has undergone a code change.Eric Balchunas pointed out that the Bloomberg ETF team had predicted this situation as early as a report last December, and the discovery of the stock code "SPCX" for the SpaceX IPO was proposed by Roundhill Investments co-founder Will Hershey, who had previously "given" the META code to Mark Zuckerberg, referring to it as a "mutual understanding among peers."

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that, according to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listing announcement, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin exchange-traded fund will trade under the ticker "MBST".