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The cryptocurrency market experienced a new round of selling and liquidation on Thursday, with Bitcoin briefly dropping to $61,300 before rebounding to $64,680, currently reporting around $62,500. Over the past two days, the total market leverage liquidation scale was about $3 billion. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, futures trading volume rose to $305 billion, but open interest fell by 8.5% to $111.4 billion, indicating that the market is primarily deleveraging rather than adding new positions.Bitcoin's open interest fell from yesterday's historical high of over 800,000 BTC to 766,000 BTC. Investors seem to be leaving the cryptocurrency market and turning towards AI narratives in traditional markets. The derivatives market has clearly shifted to a bearish stance. The skew of BTC and ETH put options has strengthened, showing that investors are willing to pay higher premiums for downside protection. The nominal open interest of BTC put options with a strike price of $60,000 on Deribit exceeds $1 billion, while the most actively traded options contracts in the past 24 hours were the $55,000 put options.Altcoins have seen deeper declines, with NEAR, ZEC, JUP, DASH, ENA, and FET all dropping over 10%, and HYPE falling 12% after reaching a new high this week. The subsequent performance of altcoins largely depends on whether Bitcoin can hold above $60,000; if it falls below this level, it may trigger more liquidations and put greater pressure on trading pairs with weaker liquidity.

Glassnode data shows that as Bitcoin briefly fell to $61,300, the number of BTC in an unrealized loss state rose to approximately 10.5 million, surpassing the 9.8 million in a profit state for the first time, accounting for over half of the total circulating supply. This is the first occurrence in this cycle where the number of loss chips exceeds the number of profit chips. Historical data indicates that this metric has only appeared during deep bear market phases and has often corresponded with significant market bottoms. Similar situations occurred during the bear markets of 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, although the duration varied from one month to a year.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price touched approximately $61,300, which is the 200-week moving average, a level that has consistently formed key long-term support during past bear markets. Analysts believe that if BTC falls below the $60,000 threshold, the next important support level will be around the realized price of approximately $54,000, and Bitcoin has historically fallen below the realized price during major bear markets.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform that Bitcoin fell 12.5% in the past week, and the proportion of profitable supply has dropped to 55%, which is significantly low. Historically, bear markets have pushed this indicator below 50%, indicating that unrealized losses dominate the market. In February of this year, this indicator reached 53%, and at the current rate, the 50% threshold is about to be breached. Darkfost stated that while this is a bearish signal in the short term, such periods have historically been profit opportunities for long-term investors.

Unitas Labs announced that its yield-generating gold asset XGLD officially launched today. It is reported that this asset is backed 1:1 by Tether Gold (XAUt).The official statement indicates that XGLD aims to break the limitations of traditional gold with zero yield. Users can gain exposure to gold prices while continuously earning passive income through Unitas strategies, thereby further integrating gold assets into the DeFi ecosystem.

CryproQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on social media, "Once profit-taking begins to form a chain reaction, Bitcoin investors' profit and loss levels (PnL) typically continue to decline for about 18 months. Since this trend reversed in October 2025, the current bear market may last until early 2027.The trend will only truly reverse when unrealized profits start to rise again and realized profits begin to decline. However, at present, we have not seen this situation occur."

ETH has fallen below $2000 for the first time since March this year. Over the past 7 days, ETH has cumulatively dropped nearly 8%, with a decline of over 5% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, ETH futures open interest (OI) has risen for the third consecutive day, reaching a historic high of 16.39 million ETH, with a nominal value of approximately $3.25 billion. Analysts believe that the continuous rise in OI against the backdrop of falling spot prices indicates that the market is experiencing more aggressive leveraged short-selling behavior.Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that more and more investors are beginning to abandon ETH, "ETH does not generate cash flow, and in the context of rising U.S. Treasury yields, the attractiveness of staking yields is declining." Additionally, U.S. spot ETH ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $401 million this month, completely reversing the net inflow of $354 million in April. Market sentiment has also continued to deteriorate due to the departure of core members from the Ethereum Foundation.David Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, previously stated that he has sold his ETH holdings, believing that the narrative of "ETH as currency" has been fully priced in. The Web3 research institution House of Chimera indicated that the market is questioning the advantages of the Ethereum ecosystem in DeFi, RWA, and tokenization, and whether it can truly reflect back to the ETH token itself.

Well-known trader Killa (@KillaXBT) posted that, from the perspective of the 180-day actual price, the time investors have been in a loss state during this adjustment may not be sufficient.Historical experience shows that bear markets are usually accompanied by prolonged periods of continuous losses, with many investors remaining in unrealized losses for a long time. If historical patterns repeat, the current adjustment cycle may require more time to digest, and the market may still need to go through a longer bottoming process.

Fundstrat's research director Tom Lee stated that although the "Tech Seven" have emerged from the downturn, the overall market risks have not been alleviated, and other sectors may gradually enter a "rolling bear market" later in 2026.He believes that the demand for AI remains strong, which will support the major indices in maintaining resilience by the end of the year, but internal market differentiation will intensify. In an interview with CNBC, he said, "The bear market for the Tech Seven and the software sector has ended," but emphasized that this does not represent the overall market.Lee pointed out three potential disruptive factors: fluctuations in the midterm election cycle, selling pressure after the lock-up period for tech company IPOs expires, and tight energy supply. Among these, he views energy as the most direct risk, warning that "the moment of reckoning is approaching: there is a shortage of oil product inventories that cannot be alleviated in the short term," and companies reliant on energy will be under pressure.He remains optimistic about the core support of the U.S. economy—energy independence and improved AI productivity—advising investors to focus on areas with strong earnings certainty, stating that "the companies that truly strengthen are those that control scarce resources." He mentioned that the semiconductor sector has shown signs of overheating, but in the short term, capital momentum still leans towards AI suppliers and tech leaders, while other industries may gradually enter an adjustment phase.

According to on-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com), Bitcoin spot demand has fallen to the most bearish level of the year, and the Bitcoin capital flow ratio has also dropped to a key area that historically marks each major market turning point. Although the short-term trend is bearish, such environments have historically created better positioning opportunities for long-term investors.

10x Research stated that its Bitcoin trend model has turned bearish. It pointed out that the market narrative of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) "never selling Bitcoin" has begun to waver. 10x Research mentioned that Michael Saylor recently hinted that the company might sell part of its holdings of 843,000 BTC in the future, and this change has led to approximately $2.7 billion in outflows from related Bitcoin ETFs.

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency market analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin has fallen below the key support range of $75,000 to $76,000. If it cannot recover above $76,600, it will be difficult to support expectations for new highs, and the price may drop to the $60,000 range. He also pointed out that there are several CME Bitcoin futures gaps above, with the highest being above $79,000, and that market pullbacks that occur on Fridays often turn bullish again.

Analyst Murphy stated that during the two bear market bottoms in February 2019 and January 2022, the number of BTC losses was 10.6 million coins. If this pattern continues in the current bear market, the corresponding bottom price would be around $60,000. Whenever the amount of BTC losses in circulation reaches a certain critical value, the supply side may become exhausted, making it difficult for the price to continue to decline. On February 5, 2026, when BTC fell to $60,000, the loss amount was close to 9.93 million coins. If it returns to $60,000 again, the current BTC chip structure's loss amount will reach 10.6 million coins, which may coincide with the previous bear market bottom.

CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin's recent trend is similar to the bear market rebound phase in March 2022, with market demand still weak and sentiment indicators having fallen back into the "extremely pessimistic" range.The report pointed out that Bitcoin's recent rebound was blocked near the 200-day moving average at around $82,400, and then it fell back to around $76,000. CryptoQuant believes this trend is similar to that in March 2022: at that time, Bitcoin rebounded 43% from its low but also encountered resistance at the 200-day moving average and re-entered a downward trend.Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, stated that during a bear market, the 200-day moving average is usually a key dividing line between "rebound markets" and "trend continuation." If Bitcoin cannot effectively break through this moving average, it may indicate that the bear market structure has not yet been broken.

According to The Block, crypto research firm K33 stated that despite Bitcoin's decline of about 6% after retesting the 200-day moving average of approximately $82,000 this month, the low of about $60,000 in February this year may still represent the largest pullback of this cycle.K33's research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rebounds in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this market has experienced a slow recovery lasting 189 days after breaking below the 200-day moving average, and market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend resembles a mild adjustment rather than a precursor to a new round of deep declines.K33 also noted that institutional capital flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F data shows that institutional investors collectively reduced their holdings by about 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC; among them, neutral strategy firms like Jane Street and Millennium contributed most of the reduction.Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded the ninth largest five-day outflow since the launch of the U.S. spot ETF. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC approaches the ETF cost basis, reflecting that investors tend to stop losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing a deep pullback.

On-chain analyst Darkfost stated that the current loss amount of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) has reached 5.7 million coins, comparable to the bear market peak levels of 5.96 million in 2015, 5.8 million in 2019, and 6.8 million in 2022. Nevertheless, the current BTC price has dropped about 52% from its historical high, far lower than previous bear market declines, indicating that the losses are mainly concentrated among younger LTH groups, possibly due to a large number of transactions in the $80,000-$125,000 range.

According to CoinDesk, K33 Research stated in a report that this round of the Bitcoin bear market is different, as exceptionally pessimistic traders have limited the downside. Bitcoin traders remain in a defensive stance, reducing the risk of a leveraged-driven collapse. Research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that the current slow bottoming process has not replicated the rapid reversals seen after bear market rebounds in previous cycles, and derivative data instead points to extreme pessimism.The 30-day average funding rate for Bitcoin has been negative for 81 consecutive days, nearing the longest historical record. The annualized basis for CME Bitcoin futures has dropped below 2.5%, which is an extremely cautious level. However, Bitcoin derivative open interest remains high, and further price weakness could trigger volatility. K33 maintains its fundamental judgment, believing that Bitcoin falling to $60,000 in February could be the largest pullback of this round.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that the realized profits of BTC across the entire market have almost been completely wiped out. Data shows that the current weekly average realized profit is only about $1.7 billion, which is close to the lows seen at the end of the last bear market. When Bitcoin first broke through $72,000 in March 2024, the weekly realized profit exceeded $25 billion, nearly 15 times the current level. Darkfost pointed out that this reflects a significant redistribution of Bitcoin holdings over the past two years.

Glassnode stated that the signals from various Bitcoin derivatives markets are diverging, and the overall structure is beginning to weaken. A significant shift in selling pressure has been observed, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot trading plummeting by 848.7%. Nevertheless, spot trading volume has increased by 4.2%, indicating a rise in trading activity, but this may stem more from trading interest rather than bullish sentiment. Open interest has slightly decreased by 2.9%, reflecting a cautious attitude towards leverage in an uncertain environment. However, the funding rate paid by the long side has surged by 136.6%, showing a rebound in demand for long positions and an increase in bullish sentiment among traders. Yet, the CVD for perpetual contracts has sharply declined by 278.7%, highlighting significant selling pressure and indicating that bearish sentiment still dominates.The 25-Delta Skew for options has risen by 42.75%, as traders seek more downside protection, with the market clearly turning bearish. Meanwhile, open interest and volatility spreads for options have increased by 1.7% and 124.52% respectively, indicating heightened market participation and increased expectations for future price volatility. The MVRV of the US spot ETF has decreased by 6.1%, with net flows for the ETF deteriorating sharply, reflecting a decline in institutional confidence. However, ETF trading volume has risen by 7%. On-chain activity presents a mixed picture: the number of active addresses has decreased, while the adjusted transfer volume has increased, suggesting relatively low network usage, but large amounts of capital continue to move.Overall, as momentum, spot demand, and speculative positions weaken across the board, the Bitcoin market structure is beginning to soften. Options traders are increasingly hedging against downside risks, liquidity and profitability indicators continue to cool, and the market structure remains relatively stable, but stable liquidity and the strength of long-term holders still provide some resilience to the market.

10x Research released a report stating that since the CPI data was announced on May 13, Bitcoin ETF holders have sold over $1 billion, and market sentiment has plummeted from 87% to 45%, while bond yields continue to rise (30-year yield has reached 5.12%). Inflation has become a focal point again, and cryptocurrencies are feeling the pressure.The report points out that Bitcoin is testing the 30-day moving average, and a confirmed drop below it would indicate a deterioration in momentum. Key levels to watch: $79,125 (short-term bull-bear dividing line) and $76,922 (major support level). Ethereum has triggered a bearish signal. 10x Research indicates that the current pattern is one of "two steps forward, one step back," but the cycle bottom is already in sight.