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Glassnode published a market perspective stating that Bitcoin is currently caught between the median realized price (around $63,000) and the cost basis of short-term holders (around $68,700). Spot trading volume has hit its lowest level since 2019, and the market is in an extremely quiet compression state. Despite core inflation falling to 2.5% in July and the stock market reaching new highs, Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction and even weakened, indicating a clear lack of demand.On the other hand, selling pressure is easing: profit supply is approaching the past bear market bottom area, the seller exhaustion indicator has hit a cycle low, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times. Meanwhile, buyers continue to be absent, with minimal net inflows into ETFs, and coins are still flowing into exchanges; however, derivatives leverage has already massively gone long, with open interest relative to trading volume being high, and the order book's buy side is also thinning. Glassnode believes that the key observation points are the upper level of $68,700 and the lower level of about $58,500: effectively standing above the former with accompanying volume and ETF inflows recovering may confirm improvement, while losing the latter could easily lead to accelerated declines under thin buy support and crowded longs. Glassnode remains cautious overall, believing this is the late-stage bear market compression phase, and real demand signals have yet to appear.

Analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted that Glassnode's latest metric, the BTC Seller Exhaustion Index, has entered the "extreme exhaustion zone" for the first time in this bear market. This metric comprehensively measures low volatility and high loss conditions.Murphy pointed out that historically, similar signals usually appear at the bottom range of bear markets, but the first trigger does not necessarily correspond to an absolute low; if subsequent prices maintain fluctuations or continue to decline, while the index does not set new lows, the historical certainty of the second signal is usually higher.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform, stating that the current Bitcoin (BTC) supply profitability ratio is about 52%, which means that nearly half of Bitcoin holdings are still in a state of loss, and the market is approaching a key turning point in the bear market cycle.The analysis points out that historically, during each bear market, the Bitcoin profitability supply ratio eventually falls below 50%, entering a phase where "loss-making chips dominate." This usually indicates further market pressure release and becomes an important signal in the later stages of a bear market. Data shows that in June and July of this year, the Bitcoin supply profitability ratio briefly fell below 50%, but overall it has remained near the critical level. Analysts believe this indicates that the current bear market cycle has entered a deeper stage.The analysis states that regardless of where the final market bottom price is, the Bitcoin market may currently be entering the final stage of the bear market. However, the supply profitability ratio only reflects the on-chain holding cost structure and cannot independently determine the market bottom; subsequent observations still need to combine indicators such as capital flow, macro environment, and market sentiment.

According to Glassnode data, around $63,000 is becoming an important support and battle zone for Bitcoin (BTC) in the current market. Bitcoin has been oscillating between $60,000 and $67,000 in recent weeks, with over 3% of the circulating supply of BTC, approximately 515,000 BTC, having a cost basis concentrated around $63,000; additionally, over 362,000 BTC is concentrated in the $61,000 region.Glassnode points out that currently, only the supply density in the $78,000 to $82,000 range is higher than this area, which corresponds to Bitcoin's peak in May. Furthermore, the current price of Bitcoin nearly coincides with the 200-week moving average. Glassnode data shows that the 200-week moving average is currently around $63,657, while the BTC price is about $63,822, indicating a significant historical accumulation and strong cost support in this area.From the 30-day Accumulation Trend Score, all types of investors are currently in a net accumulation state, with retail buying pressure being the most evident; at the same time, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC are also continuously increasing their positions, indicating that long-term capital is still being deployed. The $63,000 area has become a key price zone in Bitcoin's short-term market structure, and investor accumulation behavior may provide important references for subsequent trends.

According to Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, founder of the crypto research firm 10x Research, pointed out in the latest report that if Bitcoin's closing price in August can stabilize above $63,000, it will trigger multiple cyclical indicators to turn bullish, thereby confirming that the bear market bottom has been reached.The report shows that Bitcoin's closing price in July failed to reach this threshold, with the current quote around $63,140, just one step away from the confirmation signal. In terms of positioning strategy, 10x Research indicates that it still prefers to hold long positions, but if Bitcoin falls below key support levels and moving averages, it will shift to a neutral stance. In terms of risk warnings, the report notes: if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise, it may force the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate hikes in September; at the same time, the potential selling pressure of about 100,000 BTC from miners transitioning to AI businesses, as well as the liquidation actions of Bitcoin treasury companies, all constitute supply-side pressure.

Well-known trader Killa posted that when BTC enters a new monthly cycle, the market has formed a strong bearish narrative, so the probability of a bullish reaction at the beginning of this month is relatively high.He pointed out that based on previous trends, when BTC enters a new phase amid obvious bearish sentiment, there is usually a reverse fluctuation. This pattern may only fail when a significant trend is about to change, such as in November last year and in February and June this year.Killa believes that BTC is currently still in a range-bound fluctuation and is close to the bear market low, so there are two possibilities: one is that the price finally drops below $57,000; the other is that it begins to rebound upwards this month and continues to maintain range-bound movement. Even if BTC is expected to decline afterward, a 2% to 4% increase at the beginning of this month is more in line with the current market structure.

Binance founder Zhao Changpeng posted on the X platform that we may be in a bear market, but there is still a lot of capital looking for investment opportunities.

Crypto analyst Murphy stated that the Bitcoin URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) data shows that there are 890,000 coins concentrated at the $63,000 level and 710,000 coins at the $62,000 level, together accounting for about 8% of the circulating supply, which is significantly higher than usual.Murphy believes that this data is similar to the concentration seen just before the FTX incident in 2022. The high concentration increases Bitcoin's price sensitivity, making it prone to sharp fluctuations, ultimately leading to violent redistribution, which could be an important directional choice at the end of a bear market.In response, Jiang Zhuoer commented that if the CLARITY Act cannot be passed before Congress goes into recess, Bitcoin may complete its final drop to the bear market bottom.

Bitcoin Treasuries.NET posted on platform X that the Swedish public company Bitcoin Treasury Capital has fully repaid its interest-bearing debt through the new preferred stock fundraising and is now debt-free.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the spot trading volume of Bitcoin on major exchanges has dropped by more than 75% compared to the end of 2024. Binance's trading volume in July exceeded $35 billion, far below the $246 billion in November 2024; Bybit plummeted by 85%, Coinbase fell by 61%, and OKX dropped by 67%, marking the lowest levels since the late 2023 bear market.The analyst pointed out that the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran is suppressing risk sentiment, inflation is raising concerns about high interest rates, and the stock market continues to absorb liquidity, all of which are unfavorable for speculative assets. Bitcoin's return to a bullish trend requires a shift in the macro landscape and a return of demand.

According to South Korean media outlet Chosun Ilbo, Morgan Stanley was not selected as the sole lead underwriter for SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) listing. The transaction size is approximately $26.5 billion (about 40 trillion Korean won), making it the largest IPO for foreign capital in the U.S. The commission, calculated at a 0.5% underwriting fee rate, is about $130 million. The final underwriting syndicate consists of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase. Industry insiders generally believe that Morgan Stanley's exclusion is related to its repeated issuance of bearish reports on South Korean semiconductors.The report's author is Korean-American Managing Director Shawn Kim, who has repeatedly downgraded the stock ratings of memory stocks such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron in research reports published in 2017, 2021, 2024, and on June 6 of this year, with the 2021 report titled "Memory, Winter is Coming." Additionally, Morgan Stanley has recently faced setbacks in South Korea: as a co-underwriter for the SpaceX IPO, Korea's Mirae Asset applied for $1.14 billion in subscriptions but received zero allocation; the sale of IGIS Asset Management, promoted in conjunction with Goldman Sachs, also ended in failure. Morgan Stanley's largest shareholder is Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), which holds approximately 24% of the shares.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a bearish whale has deposited 31.12 million USDC into Hyperliquid over the past 3 days and currently holds a short position of 64.9 million dollars. The latest deposit was 5.12 million USDC.The current positions include 43.93 million dollars in SKHX shorts, 17.07 million dollars in BRENTOIL shorts, as well as short positions in SMSN, HIMS, and NVDA, with the wallet being 100% short.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin bear market has lasted for about 9 months, affecting both short-term and long-term holders. The cost basis of short-term holders has fallen below that of long-term holders and has been confirmed for 3 days, triggering a "bear market nearing its end" signal. This indicator excludes BTC held for more than 7 years when calculating the cost basis of long-term holders to more accurately reflect the economically active long-term positions.Darkfost emphasized that this signal does not mean the bear market is immediately over, nor does it indicate that the market bottom has been established; rather, it suggests that the market may be entering the final phase of the bear market, during which adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy may be more reasonable. He stated that if the cost basis of short-term holders subsequently breaks back above the cost basis of long-term holders, it can be seen as a confirmation signal for the beginning of a bull market phase and can serve as a reference for ending dollar-cost averaging. Currently, the cost basis of short-term holders has fallen from $112,500 to $69,000.

According to Gate's market data, on Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower, with technology stocks declining across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 20% from its historical closing high, likely confirming entry into a bear market.SK Hynix's ADR fell below the issuance price of $149 for the first time, and SpaceX's stock price dropped 38% from its peak, with a market value evaporating by about $1 trillion. AMD fell over 7%, Intel dropped over 6%, and TSMC declined over 5%. Analysts pointed out that the continued pullback in chip stocks is influenced by a shift in funding styles and a change in market preferences, while Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's dissatisfaction with inflation has increased market expectations for interest rate hikes.