cycle

According to CoinDesk, the current Bitcoin halving cycle has surpassed halfway, with block rewards reduced to 3.125 BTC, an inflation rate below 1%, and total supply continuously approaching the fixed cap of 21 million coins.Since the 2024 halving, the price of Bitcoin has increased by about 15%, a rise lower than in previous halving cycles, reflecting a gradual decrease in price volatility as Bitcoin adoption increases and the market matures. This cycle is expected to end in 2028, with halving events occurring every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years.Data shows that Bitcoin reached an all-time high of about $126,000 in 2025, then fell back to $60,000, with recent prices recovering to nearly $75,000. The current market is focused on whether a price breakthrough above $75,500 could lead to about $200 million in short positions being liquidated, further driving price movements.

JP Richardson, CEO of Exodus, stated that this year institutions are accelerating their entry into the cryptocurrency market, while retail participation has declined, indicating that the market may be entering a new phase dominated by institutions.He pointed out that the current market capitalization of stablecoins has reached an all-time high, and traditional financial institutions are continuing to make moves, including launching Bitcoin ETFs and establishing crypto-related business departments. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, also mentioned that under inflation and cost-of-living pressures, retail funding is constrained, and this cycle may exhibit characteristics of being institution-led and lasting longer. Additionally, CryptoQuant data shows that the inflow of funds into small accounts holding less than 1 BTC on Binance has dropped to a nearly nine-year low, indicating a decline in retail participation.

Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi stated during a live broadcast at Binance Square on April 8 that since entering the cryptocurrency industry at the end of 2015 and experiencing two to three cycles of bull and bear markets, he still tends to be "long-term bullish," but the premise is not to be overly optimistic and to face the market's cyclicality and "huge volatility." In his view, the pullbacks and rebounds of crypto assets far exceed those of traditional markets, and investors need to maintain clarity and risk awareness amid the volatility.Regarding the market pressure this year, Yi attributed it to multiple external factors: the unfulfilled expectations of interest rate cuts at the macro level, geopolitical disturbances, slower-than-expected policy advancements, and the cooling of certain narratives (such as "national strategy"); combined with the impact of the four-year cycle, he believes the correction may exceed the original plan. However, he emphasized that this is more about the external financial environment and cycles amplifying short-term volatility, and his core judgment on ETH from a long-term perspective has not changed.On the strategic level, he believes that the difficulty of primary investments has significantly increased after 2022-2023: early-stage primary project cycles are shorter, and liquidity is released faster, but as market structures and unlocking/circulation arrangements change, the window of opportunity for investors has clearly narrowed, making primary investments "not as easy as before." Therefore, he is gradually reducing his involvement in primary investments and focusing more on research and opportunity capture in the secondary market.In addition, he emphasized that AI is accelerating the reshaping of the competitive landscape: over the past two to three months, he has invested more effort into learning about AI and promoting the transformation of invested companies towards AI, believing that individuals and teams that do not understand or cannot use AI in the future may be quickly eliminated. In response to external controversies such as "pumping and dumping," he stated that investment ultimately depends on asset value and trends, and large markets are difficult to be driven by a single participant.

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin has dropped 52% since its peak in October 2025, with a 3-day SMA crossover signal appearing on February 27 (the death cross of both the 50-period and 200-period SMA), which has now lasted for 30 days. Historical patterns suggest that the final accumulation window of this cycle may occur within the next 3-6 days.Alicharts points out that historical records show that in every major cycle since 2014, the crossover of the 50 and 200 SMA marks an absolute bottom and a golden buying opportunity. Past cycles indicate that a final drop of 40-52% occurs 23-33 days after the crossover, completing the bear market washout. The potential washout target for this cycle is between $30,000 and $40,000, after which the next bull market will begin.

The globally oriented Web3 intellectual property (IP) infrastructure project BeatSwap will launch its core product "Space" in Q2. This product is defined as the SocialFi layer in the ecosystem, aimed at directly connecting creators with users and achieving deep integration with other modules of the platform.As a result, a complete user behavior closed loop is formed within the platform: Discovery; Participation; Consumption; Rewards; Trading. The announcement states that the launch of this product marks BeatSwap's evolution towards a full-stack Web3 infrastructure. Through the integration of IP certification and on-chain registration, revenue distribution, incentive mechanisms, and other aspects, the platform constructs an end-to-end closed-loop path, allowing IP rights to complete the full cycle of "creation---usage---monetization" within the same ecosystem.

According to Forbes, Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro stated in a research report that the decline in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market has roughly reached the historical average level from peak to trough in this cycle. In recent weeks, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related stocks have shown volatility but are trending towards stability. However, Yaro warned that trading volume may decline further, and in a low trading volume environment, Bitcoin prices are prone to significant fluctuations, making any rebound difficult to sustain.He pointed out that trading volume typically remains at a low for about three months before showing a noticeable recovery. If trading volume continues to decline, cryptocurrency companies' revenues may decrease by 2% and profits by 4% in 2026. Goldman Sachs currently rates Robinhood, Figure Technologies, and Coinbase as "buy," with the stock prices of these three companies down at least 50% from their historical highs. Yaro stated that digital asset-related targets are presenting increasingly attractive entry points.Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon revealed last month at the World Liberty Forum held at Trump's Mar-a-Lago in Florida that he holds a small amount of Bitcoin, marking a shift in his stance for 2024. This week, Bitcoin prices fell back to around $60,000, and Trade Nation senior market analyst David Morrison noted that Bitcoin previously faced resistance and retreated around $72,000. Currently, the daily MACD indicator is flattening at a neutral level, and the short-term trend direction remains unclear.

SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that the current Bitcoin bear market can be explained by the four-year cycle theory and long-term holders selling at the psychological price level of $100,000. He pointed out that while the inflow of institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs has made the four-year cycle "milder," it has not completely eliminated this traditional cycle, and the collective belief of market participants can create a self-fulfilling prophecy.He predicts that Bitcoin will exhibit a volatile trend for most of 2026, with a rise beginning in the fourth quarter as part of a new bull market cycle. Scaramucci mentioned that market participants, including himself, had generally expected Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 by 2025, driven by the pro-crypto agenda of the Trump administration and a warming regulatory environment, but the market crash in October completely shattered this consensus.He used the example of Bitcoin's performance in early 2023 following the FTX collapse in November 2022 to illustrate that the market often moves in the opposite direction of mainstream sentiment, with bull markets typically starting during periods of "extreme apathy and lack of interest." The current bear market is considered a "normal" adjustment consistent with past corrections.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast titled "HTX Comprehensive Empowerment: A New Cycle for $HTX" today at 20:00 (UTC+8). At that time, HTX DAO core builder Molly, HTX DAO governance committee members DaDa, Sister Mao, CDCClub co-founder Tingting, Ctalks co-founder Daling, CMO DI Michill, and HTX research team leader Cloud will be invited to attend. They will discuss the empowerment path of the HTX DAO ecosystem and the application expansion of $HTX in various scenarios such as trading and rights, exploring the positioning upgrade and value reassessment of $HTX in the new market cycle.

Cryptocurrency market maker GSR announced the acquisition of Autonomous and Architech for $57 million, building an integrated capital market and fund management platform that covers the entire lifecycle of projects from launch to expansion.After the acquisition is completed, Autonomous will continue to operate independently, providing support for the launch and operation of tokenized organizations; Architech will become a core component of GSR's digital asset consulting business. This acquisition marks GSR's further transformation into a "one-stop capital market service provider for crypto," strengthening its layout in the institutional-grade infrastructure and full-cycle service fields.This integration aims to address the current issues in the crypto industry regarding the decentralization of services and inconsistent incentives in areas such as token issuance, governance design, liquidity, financing, and listing strategies, by providing collaborative support through a unified framework. Additionally, clients will have access to GSR's existing institutional trading, derivatives, and asset management capabilities. GSR stated that the platform will also focus on enhancing the treasury management capabilities of crypto projects, covering liquidity planning, cash flow forecasting, risk management, and asset allocation strategies, promoting the transition of crypto funds from passive holding to sustainable returns and diversified allocation.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated, "The last time the seller risk ratio showed active selling pressure signals was in December 2024 (around $107,000), after which the signal has remained off. Currently, the model shows accumulation signals, while the selling pressure on the network has decreased to about 6 times lower than the average level of this cycle. The indicator continues to decline and has replicated the levels seen during the 2022-2023 bear market, when Bitcoin prices were around $16,000-$20,000.The current cycle has gone through a distribution phase and has re-entered the accumulation phase, which is still ongoing. The 180-day rolling average has dropped to 1,913, a level that historically corresponds to bear market phases, but at that time, the corresponding price was only $16,000-$20,000, while the current price is in the $67,000-$72,000 range. The current market state is neutral with a slight accumulation bias. The main risk is: if there is a lack of price catalysts, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation, in which case the rolling average SRR indicator will continue to decline."

Cryptanalysis expert PlanB posted on the X platform, stating that the current Bitcoin price remains in the $67,000 range, but the S2F model still predicts a potential rise to $500,000 during the 2024-2028 cycle.If the model's judgment is accurate, it means that the current price of Bitcoin is severely undervalued and could likely be a potential long-term buying opportunity. However, the market is also discussing whether the model has become invalid. PlanB simultaneously asked the community, "Will Bitcoin's future trend be bullish or a collapse?"

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on social media: "Bitcoin is currently in the mid-stage of this cycle. The NUPL--MVRV harmonic composite indicator is at 0.33, while the bottoms in previous cycles typically occur close to -0.5.This indicator also shows that the cycle lows are gradually moving up, indicating that the extreme panic selling in the market is diminishing. However, the indicator is still significantly above the historical bottom region, so the market has not yet confirmed a comprehensive capitulation sell-off."

Analyst @alicharts recently posted that the death cross of the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on the Bitcoin 3-day K-line chart occurred on February 27, which historically often signals the final decline phase of a bear market.The article cites historical data since 2014, noting that Bitcoin has dropped about 50% after this indicator appeared in each bear market cycle.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has experienced the deepest pullback in this cycle, with volatility narrowing and momentum weakening, showing that the market is shifting from a liquidation-driven decline to a more balanced consolidation environment.On-chain data shows that most of the recent drop has been absorbed by the demand zone of $60,000 to $69,000, with these near breakeven holders not accelerating their sell-off, which helps stabilize prices and form a sideways pattern.Institutional fund flows remain cautious, with a net outflow of approximately $166 million from Bitcoin ETFs in a single week, and Ethereum-related products also seeing continued redemptions, indicating that sustained accumulation has not yet returned. Although weekend inflows provided initial stabilization signals, overall liquidity remains low. The realized profit-loss ratio continues to shrink to historically defensive levels, indicating limited capital expansion within the network.Derivatives positions have returned to normal, with funding rates trending neutral to slightly negative, reducing liquidation risks but also limiting the acceleration of upward movements.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin is still consolidating in the $66,000–$70,000 range after its decline, marking the deepest pullback in this cycle. The volatility has narrowed and momentum has weakened, showing that the market is shifting from a liquidation-driven downturn to a more balanced consolidation environment.On-chain data shows that most of the recent decline has been absorbed by the demand zone between $60,000 and $69,000. These near breakeven holders have not accelerated their selling, which helps stabilize prices and form a sideways pattern. Additionally, institutional capital flows remain cautious, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a net outflow of approximately $166 million in a single week, and Ethereum-related products also seeing continued redemptions, indicating that sustained accumulation has not yet returned.Although weekend inflows provided initial stability signals, overall liquidity remains low. The realized profit-loss ratio continues to shrink to historically defensive levels, indicating limited capital expansion within the network. Derivatives positions have returned to normal, with funding rates trending neutral to slightly negative, which reduces liquidation risk but also limits the acceleration of upward movements.

Cryptanalysis expert Murphy stated that analyzing on-chain data from both spatial and temporal dimensions, the current distance to the "bear bottom" is no longer far off. In terms of space, taking the previous cycle as an example, in June 2022, BTC dropped to a low of $17,000, which is not far from the ultimate absolute bottom price of $15,000, indicating that it is already in the "bear bottom" range spatially. However, it took a full 7 months to truly emerge from and complete the bottom reconstruction.Currently, the "space" is getting closer to the bear bottom, but there is still a considerable distance in terms of "time." It is crucial to observe the behavior of conviction-driven buyers (Conviction Buyers, hereinafter referred to as CB), who, as the smartest diamond hands in this market, often buy during declines and sell after increases. In other words, rather than saying they frequently buy at the bottom, it is more accurate to say that the bottom is often constructed by this group of buyers. As of February, conviction buyers have accumulated a holding of 3.48 million BTC, setting a new record for this cycle. Since January of this year, they have significantly increased their holdings by 1.22 million BTC, a figure that far exceeds the previous cycle's events during the 5.19 incident, LUNA crash, and FTX collapse. Moreover, the current BTC price is higher than the aforementioned time points, indicating that "smart decision-makers" are investing more funds at this time.Although the final bottom position is difficult to predict, for the CB group, they do not hope to go all-in at the lowest point; as long as there is sufficient cost-effectiveness, they will continue to buy until all excess supply is absorbed. When a balance is achieved on both the supply and demand sides, it forms the bottom range of the bear market, after which, through months of consensus reconstruction, a new trend will emerge. From historical data, the determination and strength currently exhibited by conviction-driven buyers fully meet the standard of "not far from the bear bottom."

Whale Alert founder Frank S posted, "The potential profit level of BTC has fallen back to the end of 2023 (with all holders totaling about $300 billion).If history repeats itself, the next few months may be challenging, as data shows that the 'sustained uninterrupted profit period' typically lasts about 3 years, and this round has also lasted exactly 3 years."