cycle

According to official news, Citibank announced that it has tokenized a bill of exchange and completed its entire lifecycle (from issuance to settlement) on the Solana blockchain.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated in the ETF Edge program that the recent decline in Bitcoin is not caused by a single factor, with the four-year cycle being a major downward catalyst. Matt Hougan pointed out that investors have recently favored assets like gold and AI stocks over cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the market is also affected by quantum risks and concerns regarding Kevin Warsh.Despite Bitcoin's price briefly falling below $61,000, reaching a nearly 16-month low, Matt Hougan believes that the financialization process of Bitcoin has not changed its supply scarcity. Currently, Bitwise manages over $15 billion in assets, and its Bitwise Solana Staking ETF has dropped about 57% since its launch last October.

CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin price has fallen below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a significant moving average divergence reflecting a correction or "repricing" phase following the previous uptrend. Additionally, CryptoQuant's Price Z-Score is currently -1.6, indicating that the Bitcoin price is below the statistical mean, which typically suggests increased selling pressure and weakened trend momentum. Historically, similar ranges have often corresponded to longer bottoming periods rather than quick rebounds.In the derivatives market, crypto analyst Darkfost pointed out that the seller-dominated pattern is strengthening. Data shows that last Sunday, the monthly net active trading volume (Net Taker Volume) turned significantly negative to -$272 million, while the active buy-sell ratio on Binance dropped below 1, indicating a significant increase in market selling pressure. Currently, futures trading volume is still significantly higher than spot inflows, and the market needs stronger spot buying to trigger a rebound.

The "Build and Scale in 2026" themed forum, co-hosted by ChainCatcher, RootData, and Alibaba Cloud, will officially take place today from 13:30 to 18:00 (GMT+8) in Hong Kong. This forum is sponsored by Rich Fortune Securities and supported by partners including Sei Labs, Tron, Brevis, Kite AI, Jarsy, Spark Protocol, Billions Network, Ju.com, SunPump, Vana, Photon Pay, Psy Protocol, UXLINK, Perle Labs, Phoenix, and Huazhi Education RWA.As one of the important peripheral activities of "Consensus HongKong," this forum will gather multiple high-quality global project parties, investment institutions, and developers, focusing on the trends of industry integration, growth paths, and market opportunities in the new cycle, and will engage in in-depth discussions around key tracks such as RWA, stablecoins, AI, payments, and DeFi.Event link: https://luma.com/md5v6b5z

At the Gate Annual Gala, Gate founder and CEO Dr. Han stated that in the rapidly changing Web3 industry, long-termism and a positive culture are the key foundations for the sustainable development of the platform.According to on-site sources, Dr. Han pointed out that as an international platform with nearly 3,000 employees worldwide, Gate encourages a responsibility and results-oriented work approach, opposes formalism and inefficient internal friction, and advocates for teams to maintain clear judgment and execution in complex environments. He emphasized that true professionalism is not about "completing tasks," but about being accountable for results, thinking proactively, and reducing systemic risks.On the team collaboration front, Dr. Han stressed the importance of a global perspective, believing that organizational efficiency comes from trust, collaboration, and mutual achievement, rather than from a single point of dominance. He further stated that Gate will continue to adhere to an elite hiring philosophy, allowing contributions and rewards to form a positive cycle under a fair and transparent evaluation mechanism, promoting the joint growth of the team and the platform.

According to CryptoQuant data, BTC has not yet reached the typical surrender depth of -70% to -80% compared to previous cycles. Currently, the Bitcoin price is still about 50% lower than its all-time high.

The "Build and Scale in 2026" themed forum, jointly organized by ChainCatcher, RootData, and Alibaba Cloud, is now in the final 5 days of countdown. This forum has received joint support from partners such as Sei Labs, Tron, Brevis, Kite AI, Jarsy, Spark Protocol, Billions Network, Ju.com, SunPump, Vana, Photon Pay, Psy Protocol, UXLINK, Perle Labs, Phoenix, and Huazhi Education RWA, and is scheduled to be held on February 10th from 13:30 to 18:00 (GMT+8) in Hong Kong.As one of the important peripheral events of "Consensus HongKong," this forum will gather multiple high-quality global project parties, investment institutions, and developers, focusing on the trends of industry integration, growth paths, and market opportunities in the new cycle, with in-depth discussions around key tracks such as RWA, stablecoins, AI, payments, and DeFi.Event registration: https://luma.com/md5v6b5z

Scimitar Capital co-founder zlex posted on platform X that in the past week, two ETH whales holding substantial assets have closed most of their leveraged positions. This move has caused ETH to drop over 20%, dragging BTC down to the support level of the last cycle's historical high.The decline began when "10·11 insider whale" Garrett's 200,000 ETH perpetual long position was forcibly liquidated over the weekend, bringing the price close to the liquidation line of Trend Research's leveraged position on Aave. Currently, Trend Research has repaid hundreds of millions in positions, while Garrett has additionally sold approximately $300 million worth of ETH in spot. Trend Research's liquidation price has dropped to around $1,600, which is about 24% away from the current price. Once Ethereum rebounds, this vicious cycle will come to an end. The market should realize this soon, and strong technical support makes this the right time for Ethereum and the entire cryptocurrency market to bottom out. We hold a direct long position in Ethereum.

According to The Block, research institution K33 analysis points out that despite Bitcoin's decline of about 40% from last year's peak, raising concerns about a repeat of the past four-year cycle downturn, several structural factors make it unlikely for the market to experience a deep bear market similar to the 80% declines seen in 2018 or 2022.The report believes that the key difference in the current environment compared to previous cycles is the increased institutional adoption, continuous inflows into regulated products (such as spot ETFs), and a loose interest rate environment. More importantly, there has not been a forced deleveraging event that triggered a systemic market collapse like GBTC, Luna, or FTX.On the technical side, analysts view approximately $74,000 as the current key support level. If this level is breached, the downside risk may intensify, with targets potentially pointing to $69,000 or even $58,000 (near the 200-week moving average). Meanwhile, some common bottoming signals are beginning to emerge: Bitcoin recorded a high spot trading volume of over $8 billion on February 2, while the derivatives market's open interest and funding rates have also entered extreme negative territory. These signals, combined with prices still above support levels, may indicate that the market is attempting to form a bottom.

According to Glassnode data, approximately 11.1 million BTC are currently in profit (i.e., the purchase cost is lower than the current market price), while about 8.9 million BTC are in loss.As the gap between the two continues to narrow, the comparison of BTC supply in profit versus supply in loss is approaching a key convergence range that has historically occurred multiple times. This indicator measures the number of wallets currently in a paper profit state against the number of wallets in a loss state.When the two gradually tend to balance, it often corresponds to market phase bottom areas in history, regarded as an important signal for market capitulation and long-term positioning opportunities. If the profit and loss supply further converges, it may indicate that the market is entering a phase of constructing a historical cycle bottom, but it still requires a comprehensive judgment considering factors such as macro liquidity, derivatives structure, and market sentiment.

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb posted on platform X that in the past few months, the public perception of Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) has seen a significant reversal: he was once viewed as a "hero" by some in the community upon his release, but currently, some opinions equate him with negative figures like SBF. He believes that both extreme views are unreasonable, but they reflect an interesting phenomenon of changing market sentiment.CZ subsequently responded that both viewpoints are overly simplistic and may be related to changes in market cycles and the macro environment. For example, the crypto industry previously experienced a more sympathetic sentiment under regulatory pressure, while currently, in a relatively friendlier policy environment, if Bitcoin does not continue to reach new highs, market sentiment may turn negative. This could also simply be a change in sentiment driven by bull and bear cycles. He stated that the team will continue to focus on building and thanked the community for their support.

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, published a lengthy analysis on social media, warning that the United States is in the fifth stage of his "Big Cycle" theory (the eve of order collapse), with multiple indicators suggesting that society may slide into the sixth stage (civil war and order collapse). His core judgments are based on:Deteriorating finances and conflicts: High government deficits and rising debt, along with historical highs in wealth and value gaps, constitute a "classic deadly combination."Populism and extremism: Increased political polarization, the silencing of moderates, media becoming a tool for partisan struggle, and the "loss of truth" in the public sphere.Escalation of violent incidents: Recent deaths of protesters in Minneapolis and conflicts between federal and state governments are typical signs of transitioning to the sixth stage.Systemic dysfunction: Legal and political systems are increasingly used as weapons in struggles, with rules giving way to the logic of "winning at all costs."Ray Dalio stated that the current situation is highly similar to the early period of order reorganization from 1930 to 1945. If consensus cannot be built through leadership and painful but necessary reforms are not implemented, society may repeat the mistakes of civil war/revolution. Investors and policymakers should recognize the forces of the cycle, promote productivity-oriented reforms (education, infrastructure, research), and replace "zero-sum struggle" with "win-win cooperation" to avoid an irreversible collapse of the system. Although the trajectory is difficult to change, it is still possible and necessary to mitigate conflicts and reshape broad prosperity through wise choices before sliding into the sixth stage.

CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr stated that the net realized profit and loss of Bitcoin has recently dropped by 97%, returning to near zero. The last time this occurred was in June 2022, after which Bitcoin fell from $30,000 to $16,000.@AxelAdlerJr pointed out that at the current price level, whales are still profitable (with a buffer of 25%-80%), so there is no panic yet. However, it is not buyers that are supporting the market, but rather the absence of sellers.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua responded to his ETH long strategy:Regarding "ETH below the last peak, BTC above the last peak?" Yi Lihua stated that this round is in a rate hike cycle, BTC has broken new highs, but the overall crypto market is underperforming; this is the toughest four years for crypto. In the upcoming rate cut cycle, he believes a crypto bull market can be expected, and ETH will outperform BTC, as historically, in several bull markets, ETH has outperformed BTC."Buying the dip around 3000 USD for ETH, worried about further declines in a bear market?" Yi Lihua believes the four-year cycle pattern has failed, and now is the best time to buy the dip in crypto, especially for ETH. There are huge opportunities in stablecoin and U.S. Treasury on-chain financial services, and ETH will be the biggest beneficiary. Regarding the safety of ETH leveraged positions, Yi Lihua stated that he is fully prepared and can repay most of the borrowed positions at any time; ETH prices above 1000 USD are absolutely safe."Why rush to buy the dip instead of waiting for lower prices?" Yi Lihua said that no one can accurately time the bottom, and the previous BTC bull market example also shows that the difference is not significant. The core is that the current area is already at the bottom; if you don't buy in, the market will still buy in, and the impact of institutional size on trends is limited. "How to view short-side KOLs mocking the bulls?" he stated that the market has both long and short positions coexisting, and if the viewpoints of all parties are reasonable, they will be referenced and learned from; extreme or low-quality exposure behaviors will be ignored."Frequent updates on Twitter shouting long for ETH, reason for clearing at 4500 USD?" Yi Lihua stated that he is long-term bullish on ETH, and clearing at 4500 USD is to address phase risks, with transparent operations, aimed at acquiring more ETH rather than offloading. He mentioned that the total market cap of ETH is 360 billion USD, and even as one of the largest ETH investors globally, it cannot influence the trend; everything should follow the trend.

According to market news, Binance founder CZ predicted in an interview with CNBC at Davos that Bitcoin will enter a super cycle this year.