pullback

Renowned trader Killa stated that the current Bitcoin trend has clearly shifted, yet we are still at the peak stage of the "market skepticism bull market."In the 2023 bull market, if one went long every time there was a sweep below the "established low" (meaning a low that has been confirmed by the market and has shown support), the price only dropped a maximum of 8% below that low; in some cases, it only dropped 4-5% before immediately rebounding.Our current "established low" is 82.5K; based on historical performance, the expected downward deviation will be very small. Killa, as a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at 74,688 USD and turned to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

Bitwise CEO posted on the X platform, stating that investors should buy during the NEAR pullback. Bitwise NEAR ETF NRR saw a net inflow of approximately 9 million dollars on the third day.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to above 5.2% overnight, reaching a high not seen since 2007, putting pressure on global risk assets. Bitcoin has fallen back to around $83,000, with altcoins experiencing even larger declines. In this regard, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that this drop is more akin to a normal pullback after a rebound and does not constitute the starting point of a trend reversal. The high U.S. Treasury yields mainly suppress valuations, with limited impact on the overall liquidity. The funding structure and holding costs of the crypto market itself have also not been disrupted. This round of decline seems more like a clearing of positions before key data is released.It is important to be cautious about the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins. During a phase of marginal liquidity tightening, funds tend to concentrate on the most certain top assets; altcoins lack incremental funds to support them, and with heavier leverage, their pullbacks are therefore amplified. This divergence is likely to continue before the release of this week's PCE and non-farm data. If the data falls short of expectations, altcoins will have greater elasticity and thus higher risks; if the data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin's relative strength will be more pronounced. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize at key support levels will be the main signal to determine if this round of pullback has ended.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

JPMorgan analysts stated that the recent pullback in global AI trading has improved investors' positions, making valuations more attractive, which may drive investors to reposition, especially in the semiconductor stock sector. JPMorgan pointed out that sustained strong earnings performance and evidence of AI commercialization will support investors' renewed focus on this sector.

JackYi (@Jackyi_ld) analyzed that this round of BTC pullback closely aligns with its prediction made 20 days ago, when it had already warned that BTC would face significant resistance around 86K and suggested taking profits at that position.JackYi emphasized that the pullback does not change the overall trend of the bull market; in the early stages of a bull market, there are opportunities everywhere, and high-quality assets will rise in turn. Investors should forget setbacks, filter out noise, and focus on finding long opportunities.

Despite yesterday's Bitcoin pullback leading to a significant decline in altcoins and on-chain tokens, according to Alternative data, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index still reports 71 (the same as yesterday), indicating that market sentiment remains at the "Greed" level.Note: The Fear Index threshold ranges from 0-100 and includes the following indicators: Volatility (25%) + Market Trading Volume (25%) + Social Media Popularity (15%) + Market Surveys (15%) + Bitcoin's Proportion in the Overall Market (10%) + Google Trends Analysis (10%).

Bitwise released its first report on "Institutional Adoption of Crypto Assets," based on interviews with investment professionals responsible for crypto asset allocation at 15 large institutions. The report states that during the period from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, the overall crypto market will retract by about 50%, but none of the interviewed institutions reduced their crypto asset allocation, and some institutions even increased their holdings.All interviewed institutions holding crypto assets possess Bitcoin, with most viewing it as a store of value and ranking it alongside gold as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation. The report also shows that the allocation of crypto assets by the interviewed institutions ranges from 0.5% to 13% of their investable assets, with most concentrated between 1% and 2%.

According to Binance spot market data, the market has experienced significant fluctuations. ATOM has risen by 12.84% in the last 24 hours and reached a new high for the week.At the same time, tokens such as BAND, CELR, INJ, LUNA, ONE, SKL, XTZ, and AGLD have all shown a "high and then low" state, with declines of 7.78%, 31.54%, 7.24%, 15.68%, 28.06%, 18.27%, 11.6%, and 15.09%, respectively.

According to Gate market data, Hong Kong stocks opened lower today and continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.85% in the morning session, and the Tech Index down 0.79%. The total market turnover was 118.83 billion Hong Kong dollars. Non-ferrous metals and storage concept stocks saw significant corrections, while oil and gas, as well as optical communication stocks, led the gains. In terms of individual stocks, Orient Overseas International rose by 2.4%, while Zhidatech fell by over 28.5%.

According to Gate market data, the Hong Kong stock index fell 1.29% in the morning session, the technology index fell 2.07%, and the total market turnover was 105.86 billion Hong Kong dollars. Sectors such as application software and power equipment experienced fluctuations and corrections, while printing and packaging, as well as storage concepts, led the gains.In terms of individual stocks, Zhihu fell nearly 8%, MiniMax fell nearly 7%, NIO fell nearly 5%, and both Alibaba and Meituan fell over 3%; China Unicom rose over 2.5%, while China Life and Hua Hong Semiconductor rose 2%.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit Mining Pool, posted on the X platform stating that Bitcoin is still operating within an upward channel, and a pullback is inevitable.If $82,300 is the previous high before the pullback, the pullback will show a "slow and back-and-forth wide fluctuation" trend. He is more optimistic about a rise to $83,000 to $84,000 before pulling back to $72,000.

Bitfinex published an analysis stating that despite tightening macro conditions, Bitcoin remains steady above $77,100. Last week, after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish speech in Jackson Hole, BTC fell from above $81,000, but the rise in August was primarily driven by spot buying rather than excessive leverage—open interest gradually increased, the basis remained relatively restrained, and last week, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs approached $1 billion, while Ethereum investment products saw a net inflow of $815.7 million for 10 consecutive days.On the macro front, U.S. PCE inflation is at 3.7%, core inflation at 3.3%, annualized private demand growth in Q2 is 4.2%, and the deficit for the first 10 months of this fiscal year reached $1.8 trillion. Warsh confirmed that the 2% inflation target is a hard constraint, and the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in September to 57%. Bitfinex believes that the continued support from ETF and stablecoin liquidity is sustaining prices, but expectations of interest rate hikes limit the upside potential. If crypto inflows remain resilient, it will prove that underlying demand is still solid.

Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi stated on the X platform: "As expected, there has been a slight pullback. If it continues to pull back to around $75,500, it will be a great new opportunity, and I remain optimistic about the rise after the slight pullback. Investing and trading are the hardest things. I entered the mining circle in 2015 at a low BTC price and later successfully invested in Quantum and others, catching the crazy bull market of 2017. This was entirely a matter of luck, but at the time, I thought it was skill, as I had previously achieved some success in entrepreneurship and investment in classical industries.Later, I crazily invested in hundreds of projects, most of which failed and a few succeeded. As investment opportunities decreased, I began to work hard on learning trading, which requires even more respect. I succeeded in trading nine times in a row, but the tenth failure brings me back to square one."

According to Forbes, Bitcoin recently rose from $62,900 to $79,500, with a 26% increase within 5 days, following the liquidation of over $3.1 billion in short positions. Trader MARMOT stated that this round of increase is not entirely driven by natural demand but is a typical short squeeze situation. He pointed out that approximately $3.1 billion in short positions were liquidated in the past few days, marking one of the largest liquidation events he has witnessed. At the same time, as Bitcoin rapidly rises, retail investors are chasing the price, leading to a noticeable FOMO sentiment in the market.Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that his previous prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of the year may be underestimated. He believes Bitcoin could retest its historical high of $126,000 and expects the market recovery to accelerate further after October 6.Meanwhile, some market participants believe that the current upward trend carries short-term overheating risks. Trader David Goldstein mentioned that Bitcoin's rise from $64,000 to nearly $80,000 is mainly driven by signals from the U.S. Treasury regarding bond repurchases and a short squeeze of unprecedented scale. He considers $80,000 to be the first significant resistance level, and this round of increase may peak in the $85,000 to $90,000 range, followed by a correction or fluctuations around $70,000 to $75,000.Forecasting platform data shows that market expectations for Bitcoin's future price are heating up. Meanwhile, inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have rebounded, with a cumulative inflow of $1.62 billion over four trading days as of August 21, reversing the previous week's trend of net outflows.However, several traders remind investors to avoid chasing prices due to rapid increases. Crypto Kit noted that just a week ago, the market was waiting for buying opportunities at $45,000 to $50,000, but now that Bitcoin has risen to $77,000, investors suddenly accept the current price, indicating a clear increase in market FOMO sentiment.

"Whale" Sets 10 Major GoalsJason Leo posted a review of recent trading experiences this morning, stating that he is rethinking discipline and risk control in trading.Jason mentioned that during the last cycle, he achieved a profit of about 100 million dollars, but due to a long-term adherence to trend judgment, he failed to stop losses in time after the market reversed, resulting in a significant profit drawdown. This experience led him to summarize two core principles: "discipline" and "risk." He stated that at the beginning of this market cycle, he maintained a trend trading mindset, believing that the target price of Bitcoin would reach 74,000 dollars and that the fluctuations during this period were just part of the upward process. However, as the price gradually approached the target, the risk awareness from past losses began to affect his judgment, leading him to choose to exit early.Jason stated that although Bitcoin eventually reached 74,000 dollars, he was unable to hold on. He believes that the mistake in the last cycle was overconfidence in the trend, while this cycle was marked by the fear of repeating past mistakes, causing him to abandon the trend too early. He concluded that the biggest challenge in trading is not to conquer the market, but to break free from the inherent perceptions formed by past experiences. "If experience cannot change with the environment, it is essentially prejudice; if discipline loses judgment, it is essentially mechanical."

Citi stated that it remains optimistic about the stock market performance and advises investors to consider increasing equity asset allocation if the market experiences a pullback before the U.S. midterm elections. It currently maintains an "overweight" view on U.S. stocks, believing that corporate earnings expectations are improving and the market liquidity environment is becoming more accommodative. Despite recent concerns related to artificial intelligence, there are no significant risk signals in the overall market.Citi continues to be optimistic about the U.S. stock market and believes that sector rotation may limit the market's downside potential. Historical data shows that the market often experiences a strong year-end performance following a weak phase before the U.S. midterm elections, suggesting that there may be opportunities to buy on dips currently.

According to Binance spot market data, there has been significant volatility in the market. DIA has increased by 11.9% in 24 hours and is in a rebound state after hitting a low.At the same time, ALICE, BEL, SFP, MOVR, HFT, PORTAL, and WAL have all shown a "high-to-low" state, with declines of 5.83%, 5.04%, 8.34%, 12.7%, 18.47%, 9.68%, and 20.94%, respectively.In addition, VIC and HOLO have also shown a rebound state after hitting a low, with increases of 9.9% and 6.01%, respectively.

According to Binance spot data, the market has seen several tokens experiencing a rise and fall. DODO has dropped 7.13% in the last 24 hours, MOVR has decreased by 8.24%, PROM has fallen by 8.09%, and EDEN has declined by 9.76%.In addition, EUL has reached a new low today, with a drop of 6.87%. MTL and KAIA have both hit new lows for the week, with declines of 7.73% and 5.17%, respectively. LA has also reached a new low today, with a decrease of 6.66%.EDEN has slightly increased by 3.13% within 5 minutes, while TUT has slightly decreased by 3.06%.

Garrett Jin released this week's market report, characterizing the rebound in the South Korean market as a wide-ranging fluctuation rather than a new trend. SK Hynix rebounded continuously after retesting the 1.42 million won area, closing up 5.9% at 1,593,000 won. The KOSPI has risen 20% from the July low, entering a technical bull market, but foreign capital has not shifted to long-term holdings, and the drag from leveraged ETFs remains. Garrett Jin set the first profit-taking level at $1,150 (approximately 1.63 million won), with the next target at $1,300 (1.85 million won).Garrett Jin also noted that gold recorded its strongest weekly gain since January this week at +7.8%, priced at $4,388. The driving factors were a decrease of 23,000 in July non-farm payrolls and a moderate CPI that dampened September rate hike expectations. However, it is currently overbought in the short term, and a pullback could present an opportunity for incremental accumulation. Bitcoin has shown no response to the same macro-positive factors, remaining trapped between the support at $62,500 and resistance at $65,000-$70,000, with the bottom structure since $57,700 gradually being built. Garrett Jin will wait for the next buying opportunity after a pullback.Regarding SpaceX, Garrett Jin believes the recent performance is a classic case of "bad news fully priced in + short squeeze," with the unlocking itself becoming a washout rather than the starting point of a decline. However, the unlocking window has not yet ended, with an additional 319 million shares to be unlocked, approximately 700 million shares each in September and October. The current range up to $160 is a profit-taking zone rather than a high-entry zone.