bearish

According to DL News, STS Digital's CEO Maxime Seiler stated that Bitcoin traders are increasingly positioning themselves for a price decline.In a report, he noted that the demand for put options is significantly higher than that for call options, with investors paying a premium for downside protection while selling off bullish bets, reflecting a sense of panic in the market. This bearish signal comes as Bitcoin's trading price hovers slightly above $70,000.Previously, Bitcoin fell nearly 4% over the weekend due to President Trump's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the U.S. Central Command announced that the Navy would intercept all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports starting at 10 AM Eastern Time, causing oil prices to rebound above $100 per barrel.High oil prices mean rising inflationary pressures, which will be a major focus for global central bank governors at their meeting in late April. The prices of risk assets like Bitcoin are highly dependent on the policies of these institutions, as they determine the money supply in the financial system. The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain a focal point for the market this week.

Economist and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff called for selling Bitcoin, while Strategy founder Michael Saylor refuted this.Peter Schiff stated earlier that over the past five years, the price of Bitcoin has only increased by 12%. During the same period, the Nasdaq rose by 57.4%, the S&P 500 rose by 59.4%, gold rose by 163%, and silver rose by 181%. If Bitcoin's appeal lies in its superior long-term performance, why do people still hold onto it?Michael Saylor replied that the time frame is crucial. Since August 2020, Bitcoin has been the best-performing mainstream asset, and the advantage is very clear. If the time span is extended, this gap will only widen.

Santiment indicates that market trends often go against public expectations, "such a high level of FUD sentiment is a positive signal, suggesting that the market is likely to improve in the near future."

Bitfinex released a report indicating that BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of $69.4 million and $114 million, ending a previous two-week trend of outflows. However, structurally, ARK Invest and Fidelity remain the main players, while the capital inflow for BlackRock's IBIT is limited, reflecting that institutional demand remains cautious.In addition, the funding rates in the derivatives market remained negative for most of the first quarter, indicating a continued dominance of short positions, with traders still inclined to pay for downside risk. Currently, there is a liquidation cluster below Bitcoin's price of about $66,500; if the price rises, it may trigger a short squeeze. However, overall, the market's confidence in this round of rebound remains insufficient.

According to Coinglass data, the cryptocurrency market has rebounded, with Bitcoin currently priced at $68,171, a 24-hour increase of 2.34%; Ethereum is currently priced at $2,079.76, a 24-hour increase of 3.53%. Current funding rates on mainstream CEX and DEX platforms show that bearish sentiment for ETH has eased compared to before, while BTC is relatively lagging behind, with multiple platforms still showing negative funding rates for BTC, indicating a clear divergence between the two.Specifically, the funding rate for ETH has returned to the +0.01% benchmark level on several platforms, significantly narrowing the overall bearish signals compared to earlier. For BTC, several platforms, including Binance, still have rates in the negative range, with shorts continuously paying fees to longs to maintain their positions; although some platforms have turned positive, they remain below the 0.005% threshold and have not yet returned to neutral. The specific funding rates for mainstream cryptocurrencies are shown in the attached image.Note: Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of the underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and the trading platform does not charge this fee; it is used to adjust the cost or profit of the contracts held by traders to keep the contract prices close to the prices of the underlying assets. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it represents a generally bearish market.

According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Ethereum has broken through a key technical support level and is currently showing a bearish flag pattern, with prices touching around $2004. This pattern is highly similar to this year's trend, and caution is advised as this pattern may reoccur.On the funding side, market trading volume remains sluggish, with insufficient participation willingness. Ethereum ETFs have continued to see net outflows since last year, with no recent improvement. On the fundamental side, the new cycle of DeFi has not yet started, and there are no obvious signs of recovery in on-chain activity. Recently, the minting volume of USDC has significantly slowed down and turned into net outflows. The improvement in liquidity within the ecosystem is still not stable, and structural demand support remains limited.

According to CoinDesk, as of 1 AM, the number of long positions in BTC/USD on the Bitfinex exchange has surged to 79,343, reaching a 28-month high since November 2023.Historical data indicates that the surge in long positions on this platform has often served as a contrarian indicator, typically signaling price tops and impending sell-offs. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2025, while the number of BTC/USD longs increased by 30%, the spot price of Bitcoin fell by 23%.Currently, this extreme bullish sentiment indicator has once again raised a red flag. Coupled with geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures, market analysts believe that Bitcoin's consolidation in the $65,000 to $75,000 range may end with a downward breakout, deepening the downtrend that began from last year's peak.

According to VanEck's latest Bitcoin on-chain report, Bitcoin options traders' bearish sentiment has risen to its highest level in five years, with the put/call ratio peaking at 0.84 last month, an average of 0.77, placing it in the most bearish 9% range since mid-2019. The total size of open interest in options has surpassed $33 billion.At the same time, the premium for put options has also reached an all-time high, indicating that institutional investors are buying significant amounts of downside protection. Analysts point out that the current extreme defensive posture may stem from macro factors such as the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, regulatory risks, and liquidity concerns, but there are also views suggesting that historically, peaks in bearish sentiment often signal a market bottom.

DWF Labs managing partner Andrei Grachev posted on X platform, stating that some media have spread misinformation about his claim that "altcoins will never rise."He indicated that the current market is in a phase of activation and expansion, suggesting to pay attention to actual market performance, and reminding that one should not blindly trust media reports, but rather judge based on original information sources. Previously, he disclosed that he had increased his holdings in altcoins, Bitcoin, and BNB in February of this year, and plans to wait for a market rebound.

According to CoinDesk, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen stated that the recent rise in Bitcoin is primarily driven by a large number of put option sell-offs with strike prices around $55,000 and $60,000.As these options approach expiration and become less likely to be exercised, traders are closing these positions, forcing market makers to buy Bitcoin to rebalance their exposure, creating buying pressure that supports the price increase.Thielen pointed out that there has not yet been a significant buying of call options, indicating that the rise is mainly driven by hedging closures rather than proactive bullish sentiment. Bitcoin briefly broke through $76,000 this morning, effectively breaking the long-term resistance range of $73,750-$74,400 for the first time since 2024, driving the overall cryptocurrency market higher.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated on social media that the current price of Bitcoin has risen above its fair value, and the market structure has significantly changed compared to two weeks ago.Axel Adler Jr pointed out that two weeks ago, the market was in a bearish dominant phase, with the price of Bitcoin below its fair value, and the model he used was also in a "Bear Regime" state. As of now, this structure has completely reversed—prices have risen above fair value, and the bears' control over the market has come to an end.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, in the past half hour, during the brief surge of BTC over $70,000, the whale starting with 0xcbd has continued to average down its 40x leveraged BTC short position, further increasing its holdings by approximately 23.3 BTC (about $1.6 million). After this round of accumulation, its position size has reached $3.12 million, with an average opening price rising to $69,556, currently facing a floating loss of 16%, and the position was opened 3 hours ago.Meanwhile, this address has placed take-profit orders in the range of $69,200 to $69,450, planning to close the position in batches within this price range. Its liquidation price is currently set at $70,637.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, the whale address starting with 0xcac has recently undergone a significant shift in its holding structure.Previously, this address engaged in neutral arbitrage operations for a long time, earning the funding rate difference by selling BTC spot and closing short positions, or buying spot and increasing short positions. After the BTC price fell below $73,000, it began to increase short positions unidirectionally and no longer hedged. Currently, it still holds about $11 million in ETH and BTC spot, while the total scale of short positions has expanded to $34.9 million.Its main positions are 20x BTC short: the position size reaches $15.7 million, with an average price of $89,900, an unrealized profit of $4.3 million (548%), and a funding rate settlement recorded at $1.76 million. 10x HYPE short: the position size reaches $11.8 million, with an average price of $33.6, an unrealized loss of $450,000 (-38%), and a funding rate settlement recorded at $350,000. 20x ETH short: the position size reaches $7.04 million, with an average price of $4,011, an unrealized profit of $6.64 million (1886%), and a funding rate settlement recorded at $1.35 million.

Bitfinex reports that Bitcoin has experienced a consecutive five-month decline since 2025, marking the first occurrence of a "five consecutive down" structure since 2018, with a monthly drop of 14.93% in February and a maximum cumulative drawdown of approximately 52.34%. However, early signs of market recovery have emerged in March.Data shows that since March 1, approximately $3.2 billion in BTC has been systematically purchased at market price across exchanges, successfully reclaiming the $65,000 level; the Coinbase premium index has ended its continuous 40-day negative value and turned positive, indicating a return of U.S. spot buying. The derivatives structure also remains relatively healthy: open interest has risen to $53.1 billion, a 15.4% increase from Sunday’s close, but the perpetual funding rate is only about 9.5% APR, showing no signs of overheating. Open interest and spot have expanded in sync, reflecting that this round of increase is more driven by spot absorption.Regarding ETFs, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $1.1 billion in net inflows last week, with a total of over $450 million on Monday and Tuesday, indicating that institutional demand remains a core support. Analysts believe that if key support holds, Bitcoin may recover to the $80,000-$85,000 range in the next 1-3 months; in the short term, attention should be paid to the $72,000-$74,000 area of concentrated short liquidations and the potential dynamic support at $66,000. The overall judgment remains cautiously bullish.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, rising above $71,000. Currently, the funding rates on major CEX and DEX have turned positive, approaching neutrality, and bearish sentiment has significantly eased.The specific funding rates for major cryptocurrencies are shown in the attached image. Note: Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders; the trading platform does not charge this fee, which is used to adjust the cost or profit of traders holding contracts, keeping the contract price close to the underlying asset price. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that BTC's "historical average cost basis" is very effective for assessing sentiment. When the price approaches the historical average cost basis of around $64,500, it reaches the psychological limit that the market can bear. Recently, after multiple dips below this cost line, the Bitcoin price has once again risen above it, with bulls showing a very strong willingness to resist at this sensitive position.Currently, concerns about the US-Iran geopolitical conflict have materialized, and the focus will shift to the scope of the conflict, its duration, and its impact on oil prices. This weekend, it has been observed that, without significant participation from institutions and market makers, the bearish forces are insufficient to drive BTC quickly "below 6 to see 5." The support at the historical average cost basis of $64,500 will be reconfirmed after the opening of the US stock market today.

According to Coinglass data, as Bitcoin slightly retreats and maintains a range-bound trend, the funding rates on major CEX and DEX platforms indicate that the market has once again turned fully bearish.The specific funding rates for major cryptocurrencies are shown in the attached image. Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and the trading platform does not charge this fee; instead, it adjusts the cost or profit of holding contracts for traders to keep the contract prices close to the prices of the underlying assets.When the funding rate is 0.01%, it represents the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it indicates that the market is generally bullish. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates that the market is generally bearish.

Bitcoin fell back after a strong rise to $70,000 during the U.S. trading session on Wednesday, reporting around $68,600 during the Asian session on Thursday, failing to effectively hold the key integer level. Since the end of February, BTC has maintained a range-bound structure, having dipped to $62,500 earlier this month and reaching $71,100 on February 15.Market participants noted that Bitcoin had previously broken through a similar range in January, but then quickly fell from $98,000 to $60,000, forming lower highs during this downward cycle, which has made some traders cautious about the sustainability of the current breakout. Derivatives data shows that the total open interest (OI) in cryptocurrency futures has increased by over 6.6%, approaching $100 billion, with a growth rate higher than the overall market cap increase, indicating new capital inflow.In the options market, Deribit data shows that the Bitcoin rebound has driven an increase in demand for call options with strike prices between $85,000 and $90,000. However, the overall options structure still leans towards bearish protection, with $60,000 put options being the current most popular position, having a nominal open interest exceeding $1.4 billion, indicating that the market still retains concerns about downside risks.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin is maintaining a range-bound trend, and the current funding rates on mainstream CEX and DEX indicate a comprehensive bearish sentiment in the market, with specific funding rates shown in the attached image.Note: Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and the trading platform does not charge this fee. It is used to adjust the cost or profit of traders holding contracts to keep the contract price close to the price of the underlying asset. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it represents the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it indicates a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin maintains a range-bound oscillation trend, briefly rebounding to break through $70,000. Current funding rates on mainstream CEX and DEX show that the market has once again turned bearish, with specific funding rates as shown in the attached image.Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of the underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and the trading platform does not charge this fee. It is used to adjust the cost or profit of traders holding contracts to keep the contract prices close to the prices of the underlying assets. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.