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hot_img Counterpoint: If the United States bans imports of Chinese optical modules, it will backfire on domestic cloud vendors rather than just Chinese suppliers

According to Counterpoint Research analysis, if the proposed import ban on Chinese optical modules by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the United States is implemented, it will primarily impact American cloud providers rather than Chinese suppliers. InnoLight leads the global data center optical module revenue with approximately 27% market share, while Coherent ranks second with about 17%. Chinese manufacturers collectively account for about two-thirds of the global unit supply and approximately 60% of the optical communication module revenue.The analysis points out that Western suppliers like Coherent and Lumentum lack sufficient cleanroom capacity, automated packaging infrastructure, and yield scale in the short term, making it impossible to fill the capacity gap left by Chinese manufacturers within 12-24 months. This could lead to delays in AI cluster deployments by several quarters and increase material costs for cloud providers. At the same time, Chinese module manufacturers rely on high-end 800G/1.6T module revenue from North American hyperscale customers for over 90%, but have achieved partial capacity relocation by establishing factories in Thailand.Counterpoint emphasizes that the optical module supply chain is a highly interdependent system. Chinese manufacturers heavily procure DSP chips from Broadcom and Marvell, as well as lasers and optical chips from Lumentum, Coherent, and Mitsubishi Electric. A forced separation would disrupt the entire ecosystem.

hot_img Analyst: OpenAI and Anthropic may account for over 70% of the AI revenue of the three major cloud vendors, highlighting the concentrated risk in data center investments

According to technology analyst Ed Zitron, citing estimates from institutions such as Barclays, UBS, and Wells Fargo, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, the three major cloud providers, may see over 70% of their AI revenue coming from OpenAI and Anthropic. Specifically, Barclays analyst Ross Sandler estimates that about 73% of Amazon AWS's AI revenue in 2026 will come from these two companies; UBS analyst Stephen Ju estimates that approximately 28% of Google Cloud's revenue in 2026 and over 48% in 2027 will come from them; Wells Fargo estimates that about 23% of Microsoft Azure's revenue in FY2026 and about 35% in FY2027 will come from these two AI labs.The analysis indicates that AWS's AI revenue in 2026, excluding OpenAI/Anthropic, is expected to be only about 8.5 billion dollars, while Amazon's capital expenditure for that year is expected to reach 220 billion dollars. Google's Vertex AI platform revenue in 2026 is expected to be about 28.3 billion dollars, but during the same period, the computing power expenditure for OpenAI and Anthropic is expected to exceed 35.6 billion dollars. Microsoft's AI revenue in FY2026 is about 34.5 billion dollars, with capital expenditure during the same period of about 115.9 billion dollars. This analysis has raised market concerns about the overbuilding of AI data centers and the sustainability of demand, questioning whether the three major cloud providers should disclose customer revenue concentration risks more transparently. Currently, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have not publicly responded to this.
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