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Despite Bitcoin rising to $76,300 at one point this week, market sentiment remains low, with the Fear and Greed Index still in the "extreme fear" range at 21, indicating a clear divergence between price and sentiment. Institutional views suggest that this round of increases is more akin to "valuation repair" rather than a trend reversal. QCP Capital referred to it as a "relief rally," as macro-level inflation, energy, and policy pressures have not fully dissipated.Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is still about 5% lower than the key resistance level of the "real market average" at approximately $78,100, and the current rebound has limited depth. The funding structure is also showing divergence. Spot demand and ETF fund flows have warmed up, but profit-taking has increased, and institutional participation remains cautious, with the derivatives market continuing to lean towards downward hedging. Exchange data also shows that demand is more from offshore and retail funds rather than dominated by U.S. institutions. Analysts state that around $75,000 has become a key support/validation level. If subsequent buying cannot sustain, the price may retreat to the range of $70,000 to $71,000.On the macro front, U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, and oil prices remain high but have not surged further, which has warmed market risk appetite but still carries uncertainty. The market's focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path, and the overall environment still poses constraints on crypto assets. In summary, while Bitcoin maintains its rebound, it oscillates near resistance levels, and the market tone remains cautious, with no consistent bullish trend formed yet.

According to Cointelegraph, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned that U.S. authorities should prepare short-term, targeted emergency plans in advance for the potential collapse of future U.S. Treasury demand. He stated that once a crisis occurs, the impact will be severe. The U.S. Treasury market is seen as the cornerstone of the global financial system, and if it becomes unstable, it could affect the pricing of corporate bonds, mortgages, and stocks.The report pointed out that if a crisis weakens confidence in the dollar, it could drive funds toward alternative value storage assets like Bitcoin and gold; however, Tether, which uses U.S. Treasuries as its main reserve asset, may also face redemption and de-pegging risks.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that it is likely that there will only be three interest rate cuts for the remainder of this year.

According to Cointelegraph, after a recent rebound, Ethereum's price has stabilized above $2,300, with ETH futures open interest increasing to $25.4 billion, indicating a rise in demand for leveraged positions.Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs listed in the U.S. have seen a net inflow of $248 million over the past 10 days, and Bitmine Immersion has also disclosed the purchase of $312 million worth of ETH. However, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts has failed to remain above 5% and has repeatedly fallen below 0, reflecting limited market confidence in this round of increases. Additionally, Ethereum's weekly DApp revenue has dropped from $24 million in early February to $11 million, and weakened network activity along with intensified competition among public chains may continue to affect ETH's trend.

The open interest (OI) of the HIP-3 market on Hyperliquid reached a peak of approximately $2.38 billion and currently remains at a high of around $2.1 billion, reflecting a growth of about 580% year-to-date. This growth is primarily driven by "non-crypto assets."Among the top ten markets by trading volume on the platform, only three are crypto trading pairs, while the rest consist of tokenized stocks and commodities, including the Nasdaq index, S&P 500, crude oil, gold, and silver. Analysis indicates that the core driving force comes from the demand for "24/7 trading of traditional assets." Unlike traditional markets that are limited by trading hours, HIP-3 enables investors to trade stock and commodity exposure around the clock through on-chain settlement and a non-intermediary structure. Additionally, TradeXYZ accounts for over 90% of the open interest in HIP-3, becoming the main source of liquidity in this sector.

According to Jin Shi reports, U.S. President Trump stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continues to serve after his term ends, he will be fired. Powell's term as chairman will end on May 15.Trump said, "If he doesn't leave, then I will have to fire him." Currently, Trump's nominated successor, Waller, has not yet been confirmed by the Senate, and Powell may continue to serve in an "acting chairman" capacity. Trump also criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates as he wished and questioned the cost of the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project.

According to QCP Group analysis, BTC followed the overnight rebound of risk assets, rising to the mid-range of $74,000, triggered by the news of a preliminary framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, long-term yields remained almost unchanged, gold maintained high levels, and the bond market did not follow suit, indicating that this rebound is merely a relief from headline risks rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.The core contradiction lies in the uranium enrichment issue—Iran is currently enriching at 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. Iran has yet to signal any compromise, and this issue has been unresolved since 2015. In terms of market structure, BTC spot is slowly rising against a backdrop of negative funding rates and low open interest, showing that shorts are still resisting and pushing for a short squeeze, but the options market has failed to confirm a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and one-month volatility is still lower than three-month volatility, with demand for downside protection still stronger than the willingness to chase upside.On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's net rate cut space for this year is close to zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round of market activity is essentially a geopolitical-driven relief rebound rather than a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, and the market needs to be wary of the risk of a pullback after the rebound.

According to SoSoValue data, the overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing a turbulent and differentiated adjustment, with most sectors declining. The GameFi sector has dropped 5.02% in the last 24 hours, with The Sandbox (SAND) and Axie Infinity (AXS) falling 2.41% and 1.94% respectively. Only the CeFi and Meme sectors are relatively strong, rising 0.40% and 0.23% respectively. Within the CeFi sector, Gate (GT) increased by 2.52%, and Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 0.66%. In the Meme sector, Binance Life continues to surge, rising by 66.27%.Additionally, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 0.40%, surpassing $74,000, and at one point broke through $76,000; Ethereum (ETH) retraced by 1.28%, breaking through the $2,400 mark during trading.In other sectors, the PayFi sector fell by 0.30%, while SafePal (SFP) rose by 1.60%; the Layer1 sector decreased by 0.53%, but TRON (TRX) increased by 0.96%; the DeFi sector dropped by 0.68%, while the newly launched Genius (GENIUS) rose by 24.72%; the Layer2 sector fell by 1.90%, with Mantle (MNT) declining by 3.45%.The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market trends show that the ssiAI, ssiSocialFi, and ssiDePIN indices fell by 4.02%, 2.99%, and 2.30% respectively.

According to CoinGlass data, in the past 4 hours, various assets have continued to rise in the contract position increase rankings. HK50 has a position of approximately $3.5027 million, with an increase of 1527.05%; US30 has a position of approximately $4.4947 million, with an increase of 152.44%. The core targets at the top of the increase rankings are all products that Gate has launched, significantly boosting the trading activity of related contracts.From a structural perspective, the targets with the highest increases are mainly concentrated in index and individual stock contracts, with funds continuously flowing into related derivatives. Against the backdrop of multi-asset volatility, this further reflects Gate's advantages in product coverage and liquidity.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $70,000, and the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market remains resilient. Meanwhile, mainstream crypto assets like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are also relatively stable. The key for the market in the short term is whether Bitcoin can hold the important support level of $70,000.This position has now become a dividing line for bulls and bears and has been defended multiple times by "bottom-fishing funds." If it effectively breaks down, the price volatility of Bitcoin may increase due to thin liquidity below. However, if it can stabilize, the market is expected to quickly recover stability. Some viewpoints suggest that with support from capital flows and macro factors, Bitcoin still has the potential to rise to $88,000.Overall, although Bitcoin's price performance is solid, speculative behavior and negative events may suppress market risk appetite in the short term.

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.

On the 12th, Iranian Islamic Parliament member Seyyed Mahmoud Nabaviyan, who is participating in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, posted on social media listing three "excessive demands" made by the U.S., which he later deleted.These three points are: the U.S. demands to jointly share the benefits of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran; the U.S. demands that all 60% enriched uranium be removed from Iran; the U.S. demands that Iran not engage in uranium enrichment activities for the next 20 years.

According to Jinshi citing Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump issued a new threat to Iran, stating, "At the appropriate time, we will be fully 'prepared,' and our military will end the remnants of Iran's forces."

According to Jinshi reports, Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo from Goldman Sachs Asset Management stated that the market had previously prepared for strong inflation data, so today’s data, which was in line with expectations, brings a slight relief. However, this may be the best overall inflation reading we can see for some time, as the data may only partially reflect the full impact of the Iran conflict, which at one point pushed U.S. crude oil and gasoline prices up by about 70%. She added, "The Federal Reserve has room to be patient, and there are ample reasons to do so. Today's data buys time for the Federal Reserve, but the real test lies ahead."

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that as the market focuses on the launch of the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF MSBT, the Bitcoin After Dark ETF (NGHT) was also launched this Wednesday. The product had a mediocre performance on its first day of trading, but trading volume significantly increased on the second day, and its future performance remains to be seen.Historical research shows that "night returns" often outperform daytime returns, but for long-term ETF investors, holding products like MSBT can cover both day and night returns, so the impact of the difference is limited. However, if NGHT sees strong inflows in the future, it may gain market recognition; conversely, it could quickly become marginalized. The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF, with its channel distribution advantage, is expected to achieve great success.

According to Lookonchain, a whale who previously bought 163,405 ETH (approximately $440 million) and 4,000 cbBTC (approximately $296 million) in the over-the-counter market sold 899,999 RAVE three weeks ago at nearly break-even prices, cashing out about $229,000.The latest data shows that the price of RAVE has since increased by approximately 226%. If they still held that amount of RAVE, the current paper profit would be about $870,000.

Ahead of the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran this weekend, oil prices have risen but remain below $100 per barrel. Emmanuel Belostreino, head of global crude oil and geopolitical market data at Kpler, stated, "The outcome of the negotiations, especially whether a viable shipping navigation agreement can be formed, is a key variable in determining whether the current backlog situation can begin to ease."In early European trading, both WTI and Brent crude oil continued to rise, currently reported at $99.7 per barrel and $97.6 per barrel, respectively. Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, and supply disruptions keep the market tense. Iran's attacks on Saudi Arabia's main export route (the East-West pipeline) have resulted in a daily reduction of approximately 700,000 barrels in the pipeline's delivery capacity.

According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain, the swing trader address 0x4F51 recently sold the remaining 1000 ETH, worth approximately 2.22 million dollars, incurring a loss of about 1.44 million dollars on this transaction. Since January 27, 2025, this address has conducted 4 swing trades, of which 3 recorded losses, totaling a cumulative loss of 2.45 million dollars.

According to Jinshi, the annual rate of the U.S. core PCE price index for February recorded 3%, down from 3.1% last month, in line with market expectations. The monthly rate of the U.S. core PCE price index for February remained unchanged at 0.4%, also in line with expectations.

According to Jinshi reports, the annual rate of the U.S. February PCE price index is 2.8%, in line with market expectations, with the previous value being 2.8%.