employment

According to Jinshi News, despite weak U.S. employment data, the dollar remained stable after hitting a two-week high on Thursday. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that job vacancies in December fell to the lowest level in over five years.Market focus has shifted to the non-farm payroll data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown and will be released next Wednesday. Additionally, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman boosted the dollar, with market expectations that he will adopt restrictive policies. The dollar index remained flat at 97.819.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury yields fell during the Asian trading session, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to a three-week low of 4.156% before rebounding slightly, with the latest trading price at 4.189%, still down 2 basis points for the day. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields is related to new signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, with the market expecting a 23% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March.

According to Cointelegraph, data shows that Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-week moving average (EMA) and may have entered a deep bear market phase.Nick Ruck, director of VRG Research, stated that the decline in Bitcoin occurred against a backdrop of heightened risk-averse sentiment, driven by weak signals from the U.S. labor market, including an increase in unemployment claims, raising doubts about the economy's continued strength and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on aggressive rate cuts.Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx Research, pointed out that Bitcoin's over 20% pullback within a week coincided with a sell-off in U.S. tech stocks, as investors reassess Bitcoin's failure to serve as a safe haven compared to gold.Overall, market sentiment has significantly weakened in the short term, but institutions and long-term investors are still observing the impact of macro and liquidity environment changes on crypto assets.

According to Jinshi reports, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the U.S. for the week ending January 24 was 1.844 million, lower than the market expectation of 1.847 million. The previous value was revised from 1.827 million to 1.819 million.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. January ADP employment change is 22,000, expected 48,000, previous value 41,000.

According to Jinshi reports, the dollar has weakened ahead of the release of U.S. economic data, which may provide clues about the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle. The ADP private sector employment data will be released tonight, followed by the ISM services survey. Analysts at Danske Bank pointed out that the ADP data may give the market an initial perception of the expected performance of the key non-farm payroll report.Due to the partial government shutdown, the non-farm report originally scheduled for release on Friday has been postponed, but President Trump signed a bill to end the shutdown on Tuesday, so the delay is not expected to be long.

According to Jinshi Data, the U.S. January ADP employment figures will be released tonight at 21:15. The institutions expect the U.S. January ADP employment figures as follows (previous value: +41,000):Scotiabank: +10,000Pantheon Macroeconomics: +30,000HSBC: +37,000Spartan Capital: +38,000Sumitomo Mitsui: +39,000Goldman Sachs: +40,000Montreal Bank: +40,000Deutsche Bank: +40,000ING: +40,000BNP Paribas: +50,000Mizuho Securities: +50,000Standard Chartered: +50,000Stifel: +50,000UniCredit: +50,000Lloyds: +60,000PNC Financial: +65,000Reuters expects: +48,000.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that we may be seeing the divergence between GDP and employment beginning to resolve.

According to Jinshi News, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the current employment situation shows signs of improvement.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there are countless possibilities for inflation and employment, which will prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a combination approach for policy adjustments.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there is still some tension between employment and inflation, but it has eased.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there are some signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate.

According to Jin Ten's report, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement removed the wording regarding the increased downside risks to employment.

Paulson hinted that she agrees with the mainstream view that there is no rush to cut interest rates again. Paulson will become a voting member on interest rates this year, and she supports the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates in the last three meetings.She stated that she expects meaningful progress towards the central bank's 2% inflation target by the end of this year, but she is satisfied with maintaining interest rates steady at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on January 27-28. She believes that rates are still sufficiently high, slightly above the neutral level that neither stimulates nor suppresses growth, and indicated that maintaining this level is appropriate to help achieve the goal of reducing inflation.At the same time, Paulson mentioned that she may lean towards a moderate rate cut later this year, provided that either the inflation data confirms her expectations—indicating that price pressures are easing—or there is evidence showing that the labor market is unexpectedly deteriorating.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid said that interest rate cuts may exacerbate inflation and have limited benefits for employment.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the Federal Reserve must reduce inflation without causing undue risks to the labor market.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that the latest employment data shows moderate job growth, and the hiring environment remains sluggish. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that employers added 50,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.4%. Barkin pointed out that the balance between moderate job growth and labor supply continues, but attention must be paid to the risks of rising unemployment and persistently high inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, Trump posted a chart on social media Thursday night, which included the yet-to-be-released December employment report data.The chart shows that since "January," the private sector has added 654,000 jobs, a figure that aligns with the official data released tonight. The post was made approximately 12 hours before the scheduled data release time. The president typically receives relevant briefings the day before the data is announced.