eugene

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that one should buy when the streets are running with blood, even if it’s your own blood.

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel, "I am still not interested in the market. Everything looks terrible, and the next price level I am certain of is far below the current price. It's unfortunate that things are developing along this path, but I am once again fully in cash and waiting."

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel, stating, "This morning I have redeployed a relatively reasonable position. The market has recently faced a series of blows, seemingly washing out even the most steadfast bulls. There is a noticeable amount of frustration and capitulation in the sentiment (while many are also calling for lower prices).In my view, the risk-reward ratio for going long here is quite good, and the stop-loss level is very clear, set below $80,000. I do not believe that crypto assets will underperform all risk assets in the long term; we are likely at the tail end of this relatively weak phase. It's time to fire again."

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel, "I don't quite understand the latest price movements this week, so I plan to wait and see for a while. From a higher time frame (HTF) perspective, the pattern doesn't look ideal, and my judgment is that the price is likely to go lower.I originally hoped that the new year would bring enough momentum to push the price above $100,000 and catch up with other risk assets, but it now seems that this is unlikely to happen.Temporarily stepping back from all markets, returning to real life, and once again 'touching grass'."

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel, stating, "Most altcoin long positions have exited------although it hasn't reached the excess returns I expected, I'll take the profits I can get for now. The core Bitcoin long positions are still held, but I have significantly converted back to cash, waiting for the next opportunity to position."

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel, stating, "The trading plan remains unchanged, firmly holding on and waiting for SOL to rise."Eugene previously mentioned on the 8th, "Re-entering SOL, during this round of rebound, I have been looking for a target worth focusing on, and currently, SOL has shown the strongest relative strength among the three major cryptocurrencies. From a technical analysis perspective, SOL also offers one of the cleanest trading patterns, with the potential to swing up to $160 or even $200, provided that this market trend can continue, and Bitcoin has a chance to reach $100,000 in the future.I believe SOL is sufficiently 'anti-consensus' ------ it's difficult for people in the market to find enough reasons to go long, and this is often the best entry point. By the time all the reasons are laid out, the market has usually already completed 50% of the move. Now, I just hope Bitcoin can hold at $90,000; this pullback is just the first washout before the rise, and then a new round of upward movement can begin."

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he has gone long on Bitcoin and some small-cap altcoins. Now almost everyone is on holiday, even the big sharks are watching from the sidelines and not biting much, with the price of Bitcoin not effectively breaking below $84,000. The overall market volume has completely collapsed, and sellers are quite exhausted.As long as a few big buyers enter the market, the thin order book can be easily torn apart. "There is quite a good upside potential for going long below 90k, with clear stop-loss levels. I would rather test the waters here now than hesitate and be at a loss when it gets to 95k or even 100k. Additionally, January is historically a month with a lot of volatility, and I bet that as December ends, this volatility will return in some form."

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he has successfully navigated the repeated fluctuations over the past month and believes that most altcoins have entered "Phase 5" (Regime 5, see the chart below). It is now time to start compiling a watchlist and placing buy orders.However, mainstream coins are still in Phase 4—DAT has not truly collapsed yet. Therefore, it is time to watch the market with a "ready to buy" mindset, rather than waiting to short on a rebound.Eugene stated, "This year has been a struggle for most, but 2026 will be better."

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel, "Increased long positions in ETH and SOL. The swing indicators have clearly returned to the oversold range, and I believe it's time to start increasing risk exposure in this market."

Trader Eugene posted that since October 10, most altcoins have experienced significant pullbacks. He believes that the phase of selling pressure has basically been released, and most investors who chose to cut losses have exited during the continuous five-week decline. He pointed out that if the market rebounds, quality tokens driven by fundamentals may perform better, with Uniswap receiving more attention due to recent progress on fee switch developments.Eugene stated that UNI has factors such as no historical heavy positions, a strengthened income narrative, and the current price being close to the level before the fee adjustment proposal was announced, which may provide upside potential in the coming weeks. The invalid range for his viewpoint is below $6.50.

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that Bitcoin's drop below $100,000 is mainly due to two reasons. First, the bulls in this cycle are maintaining the last line of defense for the bullish structure, and the 50-week moving average trend has officially been broken, marking the first occurrence since 2022. Second, $100,000 is a very strong psychological barrier, which has been defended 3 or 4 times before, but this time it has finally been breached, and it will now become a new resistance level for upward movement.Therefore, Eugene stated that he will not attempt to buy the dip at the moment and will consider $90,000 as the next range worth paying attention to.

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel, stating, "The discussion about Uniswap enabling the fee switch exhibits a phenomenon of 'seeing the trees but not the forest.' We are witnessing how a pro-crypto regulatory framework is changing the value accumulation strategies at the protocol level, ultimately benefiting token holders.This is a very positive step forward for the entire DeFi industry and sets a reference precedent for future protocols. As insider sell-offs gradually come to an end, active market participants will be able to value these protocols more reliably based on fundamentals. At that point, the crypto market will have less of a casino vibe and more characteristics of traditional stock markets."

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel, stating, "Jokes aside, the current price action (PA) aligns with my expectations of the market structure transitioning from Regime 3 to Regime 4. The evolution of events takes time, and Bitcoin hasn't dropped below $100,000 yet, so the bulls haven't completely lost ground.However, the slower the decline and the longer the price stays in this range, the worse the outlook will be. I believe the next few months will be tough for most of us. We must find a balance between preserving capital and not falling into excessive bearishness.Of course, completely disconnecting and exiting the market is not the best choice—after all, the overall global risk markets and macro outlook remain positive.The trend of crypto speculators flowing into global stock markets is likely to continue until that 'ultimate bubble' bursts. But I think entering the stock market now is like buying NFTs in mid-2021. In this dilemma, we can only rely on poetry to guide us through the stars."

ChainCatcher message, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted in his personal channel, "I still maintain the view that the market is currently at hellish difficulty, and do not make significant trades (whether long or short) until I believe market conditions have eased. But for now, all I see is excellent traders being repeatedly harvested by the market like slicing sashimi (including my own small-scale short-term trades). "

ChainCatcher news, trader Eugene initiated a poll on his TG regarding the loss of investor funds due to the black swan event on October 11.The results showed that 20% of participants lost more than 50% of their principal, nearly 40% lost over 20%, while about 45% of investors kept their losses under 10%.Previous reports indicated that Eugene had already reduced his position and taken profits before the outbreak of the black swan event, successfully lowering his risk exposure.

ChainCatcher message, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted in his personal channel that there have been many profound analyses regarding Friday's events. I will briefly mention a few points:The altcoin market has ended for the foreseeable future. The scale of wealth destruction this time, as well as the manner in which it was executed, will leave a long-lasting imprint on the minds of participants.Long-short strategies are not feasible in the crypto market. These strategies may work in normal market conditions, but they often fail at the most critical moments.Contagion will occur, but the extent is yet to be determined. I hope there are no systemic major issues.Goodbye, crypto treasury companies.

ChainCatcher news, trader Eugene initiated a vote on his TG regarding the statistics of investors' capital losses from the black swan event on October 11.The results showed that 20% of participants lost more than 50% of their principal, nearly 40% lost over 20%, while about 45% of investors kept their losses below 10%.Previous reports indicated that Eugene had already reduced his position and taken profits before the outbreak of the black swan event, successfully lowering his risk exposure.

ChainCatcher news, according to on-chain analyst @ai_9684 xtpa's monitoring, trader Eugene posted that he has temporarily exited XPL. His previous entry point was below 1 dollar, and this exit may be at break-even or a small loss.Eugene stated that the current coin price is still below 1 dollar and plans to wait for a natural bottom to form before re-entering.

ChainCatcher news, trader Eugene cited trader Ansem's tweet, indicating that there are multiple signs in the recent crypto market suggesting an overall fatigue. He mentioned that after returning to the market two weeks after exiting, he initially thought there would be a rebound following the largest liquidation of the year, but positions continue to decline, indicating a lack of marginal buyers. In his view, the crypto market is gradually decoupling from broader risk assets and may soon break below key levels of BTC 100,000, ETH 3,400, and SOL 160.Ansem also distinguished between two types of large-scale long liquidations: one occurs during a bull market, where spot buying drives prices to quickly reverse and reach new highs after leverage is cleared; the other reflects exhaustion of buying pressure, signaling the end of a trend.

ChainCatcher message, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted in his personal channel that it seems we are at the end of the bull market cycle that started in January 2023------I expect this phase to last no more than a few months, as every marginal buyer globally has, to some extent, turned to and purchased cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both reaching all-time highs now. The high target of 0.04 for the Ethereum/Bitcoin exchange rate that I set for myself has also been achieved, which means that ETH trading has effectively ended for me.No more aggressive strategies will be taken------no more large Martingale momentum trading, with the focus of the strategy shifting from capital accumulation to capital preservation. I will likely miss out on any subsequent crazy market movements, but that’s okay, as these fluctuations no longer fit my trading system.This does not mean I have cleared all positions and gone short (on the contrary, I still hold long positions), but the net position size has been significantly reduced. I will use the mNAV indicator of the crypto treasury reserve company as a signal for when to strongly re-enter the market, expecting that when this cycle is completely over, most DAT trading prices will be below 1 times mNAV.We have experienced a good market, and now it’s time to return to reality.