glassnode

Bitcoin has recorded an increase for 8 consecutive trading days, marking the first occurrence in nearly 4 years. According to glassnode data, historically, Bitcoin has experienced at least 8 consecutive increases a total of 15 times, with 9 instances continuing to rise and 6 instances declining in the following 30 days, and the median increase over 30 days is approximately 19%.

Glassnode posted on social media that there is currently a large amount of negative gamma positions concentrated around the $75,000 strike price in the Bitcoin options market. Market makers seem to generally hold structural bullish options shorts at this price level. As the spot price approaches this area, hedging operations may intensify, potentially amplifying upward price volatility.

The crypto analytics firm Glassnode posted on the X platform that Bitcoin's 90-day realized profit-loss ratio (90D-SMA) has been below 1 since February 21, maintaining a state of excessive realized losses. Historically, when it falls below 1, it usually takes more than 6 months to recover. Once a rebound occurs, market liquidity will return.

According to CoinDesk, data from the on-chain analysis platform Glassnode shows that during the recent pullback of Bitcoin below $70,000, traders have been buying the dip significantly, accumulating nearly 600,000 BTC, valued at approximately $4.248 billion at current prices, with about 200,000 BTC of that amount purchased in just the past two weeks.At the beginning of this year, the last transfer of BTC in the range of $60,000 to $70,000 was about 997,000 coins, and after Bitcoin recently fell below $70,000, that number has risen to approximately 1.558 million coins. This means that currently about 8% of the circulating supply was bought in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, forming a relatively dense cost zone for holdings, which may become an important support level in the future.

According to Decrypt, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that as concerns over the Iran conflict ease, the Bitcoin market structure shows initial signs of stability. Bitcoin rose 4.3% to about $69,100 on the day, with an increase in open interest in futures contracts and positive buying in the perpetual contract market, indicating that traders are cautiously returning to leveraged positions.In the U.S., inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs increased to about $934 million, a 20% rise from the previous week. Glassnode noted that momentum indicators, ETF demand, and profitability metrics are improving, but the recovery remains "initial," with price movements lacking the strength for a decisive bullish turn. Trading volume and network activity remain sluggish, and capital flows are weak, indicating that overall confidence has not fully recovered.

Glassnode published an analysis on platform X, stating that the outflow trend of Bitcoin spot ETF funds has stabilized. The 14-day net flow trend has turned upward, indicating that as Bitcoin breaks through $70,000, selling pressure is easing. Institutional demand is still in a tentative stage, but early signs of reaccumulation are emerging.

Glassnode posted on social media that the outflow momentum of BTC spot ETF has slowed down, and the net inflow trend on the 14th has turned upward, indicating that as BTC breaks above $70,000, the selling pressure is easing. Although institutional demand still appears hesitant, early signs of re-accumulation have begun to emerge.

According to Glassnode charts, after months of continuous net selling, the net position changes of Long-Term Holders (LTH) are now showing signs of easing, indicating that as Bitcoin prices stabilize, the selling pressure from experienced holders is diminishing. Resistance in BTC supply still exists, but the intensity of selling is weakening.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $62,000 and $72,000, and is expected to close down for the fifth consecutive month.Despite the weak market environment, the open interest (OI) in Bitcoin options has returned to historical highs, and is expected to surpass the peak of 550,000 Bitcoins set last December within a few days, further highlighting the importance of the options market.At the same time, the implied volatility (ATM IV) has retreated from its early peak, but remains above the levels of a month ago, with the market pricing the implied volatility for 1-month and 3-month terms at around 47%, about 10 volatility points higher than last month, indicating a steady demand from investors for protection.

According to The Block, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out that Bitcoin has fallen below the "True Market Mean," which historically serves as a dividing line between expansion and contraction cycles. The current structural support level below may look towards $54,900.Additionally, the net flow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has shifted back to continuous outflows, weakening the previously supportive marginal demand. In the derivatives market, panic sentiment has eased somewhat, but has not turned optimistic. Implied volatility has retreated from high levels, indicating that traders are unwinding their downside protection positions, but have not yet significantly established long positions.

glassnode's weekly market report indicates that the price of Bitcoin rebounded from $60,000 to $69,000. However, while spot trading volume has increased, it remains at a low level, showing that selling pressure has eased but buyer participation is cautious. This reflects a market that is frequently changing hands after a downward revaluation, rather than decisively accumulating.Over-the-counter indicators show that futures and options positions are defensively strong, with ETF trading volume surging to a high of $45.5 billion, yet accompanied by a slowdown in capital outflows, resulting in overall low risk appetite. On-chain fundamental activity has strengthened, but capital inflows are negative and unrealized losses dominate supply. Overall, the market's sustained recovery may depend on the restoration of spot demand, which would stabilize prices above recent lows.

Glassnode posted on platform X that Bitcoin has rebounded to $69,000 after experiencing a sharp downward revaluation. The overall market positioning remains defensive—spot, derivatives, and on-chain indicators all show caution, and whether the rebound can be sustained depends on whether spot demand can recover.Off-chain signals are stabilizing, but market confidence remains insufficient. Spot and ETF indicators are recovering from low levels, while futures and options positions remain defensive, indicating that participants are cautious and risk appetite remains weak. On-chain signals are mixed; although the underlying network activity fundamentals have improved, capital flows and profit-loss conditions continue to weaken, showing that even with improved network participation, market demand remains soft and profit margins are limited. When Bitcoin's price was at $70,000, the unrealized losses in the market accounted for about 16% of the total market capitalization. The current market pain resembles the market structure observed in early May 2022.

Glassnode posted on platform X that the actual losses of Bitcoin after entity adjustments (7-day moving average) have reached $889 million per day, the highest daily realized loss since November 2022.

According to Glassnode data, approximately 11.1 million BTC are currently in profit (i.e., the purchase cost is lower than the current market price), while about 8.9 million BTC are in loss.As the gap between the two continues to narrow, the comparison of BTC supply in profit versus supply in loss is approaching a key convergence range that has historically occurred multiple times. This indicator measures the number of wallets currently in a paper profit state against the number of wallets in a loss state.When the two gradually tend to balance, it often corresponds to market phase bottom areas in history, regarded as an important signal for market capitulation and long-term positioning opportunities. If the profit and loss supply further converges, it may indicate that the market is entering a phase of constructing a historical cycle bottom, but it still requires a comprehensive judgment considering factors such as macro liquidity, derivatives structure, and market sentiment.

According to glassnode, the realized profit and loss ratio of Bitcoin (90-day simple moving average) has been on a continuous downward trend (currently around 1.5), gradually approaching 1, reflecting the increasingly depleted market liquidity conditions.Historically, if this indicator continues to fall below 1, it is usually accompanied by a widespread capitulation sell-off—where the realized losses across the entire market will exceed profit-taking activities.

According to glassnode analyst Chris Beamish, Bitcoin has now fallen below the average cost basis of U.S. spot ETF holders (around $84,000), leading to unrealized net losses for ETF buyers. Chris Beamish stated that this is the first real stress test for U.S. spot ETF holders.After the U.S. stock market opens, investors will choose to buy or panic sell, and tonight may bring a "stress test."

According to the weekly report analysis released by Glassnode, Bitcoin's price continues to consolidate near the key on-chain cost basis, with the market facing structural pressure.The condition of short-term holders remains weak, with their cost basis (around $96,500) being a critical bull-bear dividing line. Recent key support levels are at $83,400 and $80,700. If these levels are breached, it could trigger a deeper correction. The 30-day moving average of spot ETF fund flows has returned to neutral, alleviating structural selling pressure, but there has not been a strong inflow. Buying in the spot market has improved, with Binance leading the return of buying, while demand on Coinbase remains relatively stable. In the derivatives market, perpetual contract funding rates are generally neutral, while the options market has turned defensive, with skew leaning bearish and traders' Gamma being negative below $90,000, which could amplify downward volatility. The market lacks clear signals for liquidity inflows, and the subsequent direction depends on whether spot and ETF can form sustained demand.

glassnode published a weekly report stating that Bitcoin continues to consolidate near structurally important price levels on-chain, with a delicate balance between holder confidence and marginal demand. The condition of short-term holders remains weak, with the lower bound of the current compression range (-1 standard deviation) at $83,400. This level is a key support in the recent period, and if it is breached, it could lead to a further price pullback towards the real market mean around $80,700. However, the overall capital flow pattern has stabilized.The selling pressure from ETFs has eased, and there are initial signs of improvement in spot market positions, especially in offshore markets, indicating that buyer interest is beginning to rebuild. Meanwhile, the derivatives market remains restrained, with neutral funding suggesting low market leverage and prices being less influenced by speculative momentum. Adjustments in options positions have reinforced this cautious attitude. The skew has turned bearish, short-term protection pricing has increased, and dealer gamma has fallen below zero, which raises the likelihood of sharp price fluctuations during periods of market volatility.Moving forward, the key to market trends lies in whether the demand from the spot and ETF channels can be sustained. Continued positive capital inflows and stronger spot buying will support the continuation of the trend, while ongoing weakness and rising downside hedging demand will make the market susceptible to further consolidation or deeper pullbacks.

The institutional research department of Coinbase, in collaboration with on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, pointed out in their latest report "Charting Crypto: Q1 2026" that Bitcoin is exhibiting more stable and resilient market characteristics.The report suggests that the pullback in Q4 2025 has largely cleared excess leverage from the market, reducing Bitcoin's sensitivity to cascading liquidations and enhancing its ability to withstand macro-level shocks. It states that the current market situation is not a return to a high-leverage speculative cycle, but rather is gradually displaying characteristics of a "macro-sensitive asset," with its price being more influenced by global liquidity, institutional positioning, and portfolio rebalancing behaviors. Unlike previous cycles dominated by retail momentum and high-leverage trading, the current market structure is more restrained, with institutional investors leaning towards defensive allocations.Researchers noted that the crypto market is overall healthier as it enters 2026, with a relatively robust macro environment and monetary policy expectations leaning towards support. The report also mentioned that Coinbase's self-built global M2 money supply index has historically led Bitcoin prices by about 110 days, and this indicator remains positively correlated in the current quarter, suggesting short-term support for Bitcoin. However, the subsequent growth rate of liquidity may slow down. Additionally, the report shows that Bitcoin options open interest has surpassed perpetual contracts, with investors more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than continue to leverage directional bets, reflecting a cautious market risk appetite.

glassnode published a weekly report stating that Bitcoin remains in a state of low participation, with price movements driven more by a lack of pressure than by active trading willingness.On-chain data continues to reflect an oversupply and weak structural support, while spot fund flows have improved somewhat but have not yet translated into sustained accumulation. Institutional and corporate demand remains cautious, with treasury company fund flows tending to stabilize, and trading activity concentrated in sporadic trades. Derivatives participation remains sluggish, with futures trading volume shrinking and leverage usage being moderate, further exacerbating the liquidity-challenged market environment, making prices increasingly sensitive to minor position changes.Overall, the market seems to be quietly building a bottom, but this consolidation is not due to excessive participation or enthusiasm; rather, it is because investor confidence has paused, with everyone waiting for the next clear catalyst to reignite broader market participation and momentum.