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According to CoinDesk, Glassnode's Bitcoin on-chain metric RHODL ratio is currently at 4.5, which is the third highest level on record, and the signals it emits are more aligned with a market bottom rather than a cycle top.The RHODL ratio compares the value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (holding for 6 months to 3 years) to that held by short-term holders (holding for 1 day to 3 months). An increase in the ratio typically reflects a longer holding period for chips and reduced speculative activity, rather than an influx of new buyers—this dynamic has occurred after significant corrections in 2015, 2019, and 2022. During the 50% drop in Bitcoin over the past six months, young speculative chips have been largely washed out, concentrating wealth among long-term holders.Historically, the RHODL ratio has only been higher than the current level twice: in 2015 (ratio of 5) and in 2022 (ratio of 7), both corresponding to cycle bottoms, which suggests that Bitcoin may still have further downside potential. However, to push the ratio to higher levels, it typically requires the activity of short-term holders to be nearly exhausted, and this condition is not yet evident under current circumstances—Bitcoin has rebounded about 25% from its February low, perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, and the S&P 500 has also reached an all-time high.Overall, this indicator suggests that the current market conditions are closer to an adjustment within the cycle rather than a cycle top formation, and the re-dominance of long-term holders in the market may indicate that a phase bottom is approaching.

Slow Fog has once again issued a security reminder stating to pay attention to checking for malicious versions of axios and the exposure risk of OpenClaw npm global installation history. [email protected] and [email protected] have been confirmed as malicious versions, both of which have injected the dependency [email protected], delivering cross-platform malicious payloads through the postinstall script.The impact of OpenClaw is assessed based on scenarios: source code builds are not affected, as the locked versions in the lock file are 1.13.5/1.13.6; however, users who installed via npm install -g [email protected] face historical exposure risks due to the presence of optionalDependencies.axios@^1.7.4 in the dependency chain, which may resolve to [email protected] during the time window when the malicious version is still online. Currently, npm has reverted the resolution to [email protected], but environments that were installed during the attack window are still advised to be checked. Slow Fog has provided inspection commands and IoC paths for various platforms; if the plain-crypto-js directory is found, even if the package.json has been cleaned, it should still be regarded as high-risk execution traces. It is recommended that affected hosts immediately rotate credentials and conduct host-side inspections. Previously, Slow Fog founder Yu Xian reminded that OpenClaw version 3.28 may introduce a toxic version of axios, and users need to urgently check.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's return rate this year is currently reported at -0.76%, which may record a consecutive 6 months of decline.Historically, a similar situation has only occurred once: from August 2018 to January 2019, it fell approximately 54.8% over 6 months. Subsequently, Bitcoin experienced a consecutive 5 months of increase (from February 2019 to June 2019), with a cumulative increase of up to 208.1%.

Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), posted on X that the combination of OpenClaw and Pi is one of the top ten software breakthroughs of all time.It is reported that Pi (full name Pi Coding Agent) is a minimalist AI coding agent developed by Mario Zechner (@badlogicgames) at the end of 2025, and it is the core "kernel" of OpenClaw. It provides only four tools for LLM (language learners) — reading, writing, editing, and bash — along with a concise prompt for iteratively building, running, and fixing code autonomously. There are no bloated features.Peter Steinberger, founder of OpenClaw, retweeted the post.

According to Bitcoin News, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has introduced a new form for cryptocurrency audits, requiring taxpayers to report the complete history of the trading platforms and wallets they have used.The form lists over 100 platforms, including Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, FTX, and Mt. Gox, as well as self-custody wallets like MetaMask, Ledger, and Trezor. Taxpayers must indicate "yes" or "no" for each platform and sign to confirm that the information provided is true and accurate; otherwise, they may face perjury penalties.The form is designed to map the complete cryptocurrency footprint of taxpayers across exchanges and wallets, potentially tracing back several years. Tax professionals warn that this document could pose significant legal risks and advise consulting a crypto tax attorney before signing. Failing to disclose platforms used years ago may raise questions, while disclosing too much could also lead to new investigative leads.

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi recently engaged in a public debate on social media with former co-founder Alexander Pack (now co-founder of Hack VC).Haseeb posted a reflection on his experience building the venture capital firm, stating that Dragonfly's early brand and system were not yet established, and that development and scaling only began after his arrival. In response, Alexander Pack countered that Dragonfly had already been co-founded by him and Feng Bo for over a year before Haseeb joined, and had committed to leading investments in projects such as Bybit, Amber Group, and Crusoe, with the relevant fund announcements made prior to Haseeb's employment.Haseeb then responded, claiming that some of the other party's statements were inconsistent with the facts, and clarified the specific roles and decision-making processes regarding project investments, leading to an ongoing debate between the two about the company's founding phase and investment contributions.

According to CoinDesk, BTC is set to decline for the fifth consecutive week, marking the longest losing streak since 2022.At the same time, BTC is facing a fifth consecutive month of decline, which is the second longest losing streak in history, only behind the six-month downturn from 2018 to 2019.

Former Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani predicts that in the next 18 months, advancements in the microstructure of the Solana on-chain market will surpass any other period in cryptocurrency history. Notable expectations include:Alpenglow: A major upcoming consensus mechanism upgrade for Solana, representing one of the largest protocol-level changes in Solana's history.ACE (Application Controlled Execution): Application controlled execution is a key innovation in Solana's core roadmap.MCL (Multi-Concurrent Block Production): Future upgrades for Solana will allow multiple leaders to propose blocks simultaneously, significantly increasing throughput and reducing latency, while improving transaction inclusion times and censorship resistance.PropAMMs (Proprietary Automated Market Makers): Deployed privately by professional market makers/institutions, using real-time price oracles to update quotes and actively manage liquidity, typically not accepting permissionless deposits.Aggregators: Aggregators like Jupiter and Dflow aggregate liquidity from multiple DEXs, AMMs, PropAMMs, etc., to find the optimal execution path for users, providing the lowest slippage and best prices.Conditional liquidity: Prevents market makers from being front-run, allowing them to offer tighter spreads, ultimately resulting in better trade prices and deeper liquidity.Overall improvements to SVM and the scheduler: Including optimizations for compute units, asynchronous program execution (APE), scheduling algorithm upgrades, etc., making programs run faster, more resource-efficient, and supporting higher concurrency.

Cryptocurrency KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun posted that Bitcoin experienced an extreme drop this morning. Calculating with a 200-day lookback period, BTC's decline reached -5.65 standard deviations (σ). The Six Sigma standard in manufacturing allows for only 3.4 defects per million occurrences, which defines "almost impossible" in human industrial civilization. Yesterday's BTC volatility was just 0.35 standard deviations away from this "industrial-grade impossibility."A -5.65σ occurrence has a theoretical probability of about one in ten million under normal distribution. Despite the fat tail effect in financial markets, this level of volatility has only occurred 4 times since BTC began trading in July 2010, accounting for about 0.07% of all trading days. Even during the deep bear phases of 2018 and 2022, such a rapid decline had not occurred within a rolling 200-day period. This poses a severe challenge to quantitative strategies.Currently, most quantitative models are built on data after 2015, and historical samples exceeding 5.65σ, apart from the anomalous "312" flash crash in 2020, occurred before 2015, leaving almost no reference precedent.CoinKarma's quantitative strategy has shown a paper loss in this round of market conditions, but due to maintaining low leverage (about 1.4 times) over the long term, it remains manageable, with a maximum drawdown of about 30%. While extreme market conditions are an expensive "tuition," contracts and on-chain data will become important nutrients for future risk control models.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the unrealized losses of the Ethereum treasury company BitMine have reached $6.6 billion. If these unrealized losses are realized, it will become the fifth largest proprietary trading loss in the history of global financial markets.In 2021, Archegos Capital Management incurred losses of approximately $10 billion, which was about 66% of the company's size, making it the largest loss in history.

According to SoSoValue data, during this week's trading days (Eastern Time January 26 to January 30), Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.49 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net outflow this week was BlackRock's ETF IBIT, with a weekly net outflow of $947 million, bringing IBIT's historical total net inflow to $61.96 billion. Following that was Fidelity's ETF FBTC, with a weekly net outflow of $192 million, currently having a historical total net inflow of $11.27 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflow this week was WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust BTCW, with a weekly net inflow of $2.7856 million, currently having a historical total net inflow of $5.3 million.As of the time of publication, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $106.96 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market cap as a percentage of total Bitcoin market cap) of 6.38%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $55.01 billion.