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According to a report by the Wall Street Journal cited by Jinshi, U.S. officials stated that the U.S. military is prepared to board and seize commercial vessels related to Iran in international waters within the next few days, expanding the scope of its naval operations beyond the Middle East.This plan comes as the Iranian military continues to strengthen its control over the Strait of Hormuz, having attacked multiple commercial vessels on Saturday and announced that the waterway is under "strict control" by Iran. These developments have caught shipping companies off guard, and just a day earlier, the Iranian Foreign Minister had claimed that the strait was fully open to commercial vessels, a statement that had received praise from President Trump.

According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

According to the Iranian Tasnim News Agency on the 18th, Iran has not yet agreed to hold the next round of negotiations with the United States.

According to Reuters, U.S. President Trump stated that he may go to Islamabad once an agreement is reached, but no decision has been made yet. There may be more negotiations regarding the Iran agreement this weekend.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT has been rising almost daily for the past three weeks, increasing by about 3.5% again, and has accumulated a rise of about 19% since the market sell-off triggered by the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. As concerns about geopolitical impacts have eased, fund sentiment has clearly recovered, driving Bitcoin-related ETFs to continue strengthening.

Trump told NewsNation that Iran agreed to "everything," agreeing to stop enriching uranium and agreeing not to close the Strait of Hormuz, which will no longer be used as a weapon against the world.According to Axios reporters, the U.S. and Iran have made progress in the three-page memorandum of understanding negotiations to end the war.

According to Gate market data, at the opening of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.07%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.66%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.87%. Most oil and gas-related stocks fell, with BP down 6.3%, ExxonMobil down 5.07%, and Chevron down 3.7%. Previously, the Iranian Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened during the remaining time of the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel.

According to Gate market data, the Iranian foreign minister stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open to merchant ships, causing significant market fluctuations. Spot gold continues to rise, surpassing $4,840, with an intraday increase of over 1%; spot silver has risen nearly 4% today, currently reported at $81.3 per ounce. Both WTI and Brent crude oil experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude oil plunging 8% today and Brent crude oil dropping 7%. The US dollar index DXY fell more than 20 points in the short term, currently reported at 97.98, with most non-US currencies rising.

According to Fortune, U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal (Democrat, Connecticut) has sent a letter to the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) requesting clarification on the status of two compliance supervisors at the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance.Previous reports indicated that internal investigators at Binance had warned executives that over $1 billion in funds were flowing to wallets associated with Iran, but were subsequently fired. Binance denies that the firings were related to the investigation results and claims that its compliance system is strict. Notably, the DOJ had previously terminated independent oversight requirements for Glencore and Boeing, raising concerns about whether the oversight mechanism has also been suspended for Binance. In 2023, Binance was fined $4.3 billion for deficiencies in anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance, and the two supervisors were part of the agreement at that time.

According to Cointelegraph, during the US-Iran conflict, UAE investors chose to buy the dip in AI and digital assets rather than reducing their overall positions.eToro data shows that in the first quarter, UAE users increased their holdings in several software and AI infrastructure stocks that had significantly pulled back in price. eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert stated that the behavior of UAE investors is driven by long-term themes rather than risk aversion, with the most obvious signals appearing in the AI infrastructure and software sector—ServiceNow (+125%), Super Micro Computer (+65%), Adobe (+54%), and Oracle (+38%) all saw significant increases in holdings against a backdrop of market pressure.In terms of crypto assets, Strategy Inc. remains the eighth highest held stock by UAE investors, indicating a continued allocation to crypto-related assets. Deutsche Bank's report on April 13 indicated that this conflict is more likely to strengthen rather than weaken the region's demand for AI, cybersecurity, and sovereign digital infrastructure; however, it also cited reports that the Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE and Bahrain have been attacked, and the planned 1GW Stargate park in Abu Dhabi is also under threat.The report also noted that sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf region manage approximately $5 trillion in assets by 2025, with Abu Dhabi-related institutions being one of the most active sources of funding in the global AI sector. Local crypto businesses in Dubai are operating normally. HashKey MENA Managing Director Ben El-Baz told Cointelegraph that business remains normal, relying on cloud trading and custody systems; Binance also confirmed that the vast majority of employees chose to stay, but the Token2049 Dubai event has been postponed to 2027.The Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) continues to advance its activity-type regulatory framework. VARA Market Assurance Director Sean McHugh stated that during times of pressure, serious market participants seek the clearest regulatory environment rather than the most lenient jurisdictions.

According to Bloomberg, the top derivatives regulator in the United States is investigating a series of "exceptionally timed" crude oil futures trades that occurred before Trump's recent adjustments to Iran war policy. According to informed sources, the investigation has been initiated.The U.S. CFTC is leading the investigation into crude oil futures contract trades conducted on the CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange platforms. Informed sources stated that they requested anonymity due to the information not being public.Currently, both trading platforms have been asked to submit relevant trading data to the regulators to cooperate with the investigation.

According to Jinshi reports, market news suggests that the United States and Iran are reportedly considering extending the ceasefire for two weeks.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the United States proposed a package plan to Iran and hoped that Iran would "accept it in full." The U.S. knows very well that "this is impossible," and it does not conform to the logic of negotiation and dialogue. The spokesperson stated that Iran had previously submitted 10 ceasefire terms to the U.S. through Pakistan in response to the so-called U.S. ceasefire "15-point plan."The spokesperson said that with the participation of countries along the Persian Gulf, Iran is fully capable of ensuring the security of the Middle East, provided that the U.S. stops military intervention and war provocations. Any intervention from outside the region will only complicate the issues further. Many European countries are wise to "avoid falling into the U.S. military trap."

According to Jinshi citing CCTV reports, U.S. President Trump stated in an interview broadcast on April 15 local time that he believes the war with Iran is "about to end," but also warned that the war could last until the midterm elections in November.Trump again threatened to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure, but at the same time expressed that he "hopes it won't escalate to that point."

According to QCP Group analysis, BTC followed the overnight rebound of risk assets, rising to the mid-range of $74,000, triggered by the news of a preliminary framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, long-term yields remained almost unchanged, gold maintained high levels, and the bond market did not follow suit, indicating that this rebound is merely a relief from headline risks rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.The core contradiction lies in the uranium enrichment issue—Iran is currently enriching at 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. Iran has yet to signal any compromise, and this issue has been unresolved since 2015. In terms of market structure, BTC spot is slowly rising against a backdrop of negative funding rates and low open interest, showing that shorts are still resisting and pushing for a short squeeze, but the options market has failed to confirm a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and one-month volatility is still lower than three-month volatility, with demand for downside protection still stronger than the willingness to chase upside.On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's net rate cut space for this year is close to zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round of market activity is essentially a geopolitical-driven relief rebound rather than a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, and the market needs to be wary of the risk of a pullback after the rebound.

U.S. President Trump told the New York Post that negotiations regarding Iran "may take place in Pakistan within the next two days," and we are more "inclined" to hold the negotiations on the Iran issue in Pakistan.

According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet (bullseye123) spent $40,000 betting on the prediction market Polymarket that Trump will announce the end of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement before April 15 or 18. Currently, this position has an unrealized loss of about $34,000, with a loss rate of 85%.