pause

The cryptocurrency market has experienced one of its strongest single-day rebounds in recent times, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana collectively rising, driving the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies up by approximately $170 billion, bringing the total market cap close to $2.5 trillion.Market data shows that Bitcoin briefly broke the $70,000 mark, Ethereum rose over 13%, and Solana increased by more than 15%. This round of rebound ended the continuous correction trend since the peak last October. Market analysts believe that this surge is related to the recent insider trading lawsuit against the market maker Jane Street. Some commentators in the crypto market pointed out that there had been a phenomenon of suspected concentrated selling of Bitcoin every day at 10 AM Eastern Time over the past few months, and this pattern seemed to suddenly stop after the lawsuit news was announced.However, there is currently no public evidence that Jane Street has indeed engaged in systematic selling of Bitcoin at fixed times. Nevertheless, the market generally believes that the expectation of reduced potential selling pressure has boosted investor sentiment in the short term.

According to Jinshi, at 3 AM Beijing time tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce its first interest rate decision of 2026, and a pause in rate cuts has become almost certain. As the Federal Reserve faces political challenges, the independence of the central bank, the selection of a new chairperson, and Powell's future may become the focus. Gold prices have reached a new high, the dollar index has fallen to a four-year low, and the market may experience another huge wave.

According to Jin Shi reports, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that Federal Reserve officials expect to keep interest rates unchanged for the first time, following three consecutive rate cuts since last September.The conditions for the Fed to initiate rate cuts again depend on a collapse in the labor market or inflation significantly retreating to the target level of 2%. Despite facing political pressure, most officials believe that rate cuts may still be possible later this year, but there is disagreement on when the data will support such cuts.

According to Jinshi News, Huatai Securities' research report states that at 2 a.m. Beijing time on January 29 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve will announce the decision from the January monetary policy meeting. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will likely pause interest rate cuts and maintain the forward guidance for December 2025, with little new information. Attention will be on Powell's statements regarding the interest rate path, the independence of the Fed, and whether he will remain as a governor.

According to CoinDesk, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates this Wednesday.The key focus of this meeting is the statement from Fed Chairman Powell during the post-meeting press conference, as his remarks may provide directional guidance for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The core concern for the market is whether this pause in rate cuts will be interpreted as a "hawkish pause" or a "dovish pause." If Powell emphasizes inflation risks, it could dampen rate cut expectations and put pressure on risk assets; conversely, if he suggests that the pause in rate cuts is temporary and opens the door for resuming cuts in the coming months, it could boost risk assets like Bitcoin.Additionally, if officials appointed by Trump cast dissenting votes on the decision to maintain interest rates, it could strengthen market expectations for future easing policies. Powell's explanation for the decision to maintain rates may provide support for the dollar, thereby putting pressure on Bitcoin priced in dollars. He may also be asked about the Trump administration's recent housing affordability measures (which could raise short-term inflation), the judicial investigations targeting him personally, and the bond market volatility triggered by Japan, as these statements could exacerbate market fluctuations.

Layer-1 blockchain protocol Saga has urgently paused its Ethereum-compatible Saga EVM chainlet after experiencing an attack that resulted in a loss of approximately $7 million. The attack led to unauthorized funds being cross-chain transferred and exchanged for ETH, causing its dollar-pegged stablecoin, Saga Dollar, to de-peg, with the price dropping to as low as $0.75. The Saga team stated that the chain was paused at block height 6,593,800.Preliminary investigations indicate that the incident involved a series of contract deployments, cross-chain operations, and liquidity withdrawals, but there was no consensus failure, validator compromise, or private key leakage; the overall structure of the Saga mainnet remains secure. The impact was not limited to Saga Dollar; its stablecoins Colt and Mustang were also affected. The team has identified the addresses involved in the attack and is working with exchanges and cross-chain bridges to blacklist these addresses. The chain will remain paused until a complete security audit and post-mortem analysis are published.On-chain data shows that Saga's TVL plummeted from approximately $37 million to $16 million within 24 hours, a decrease of about 55%. Some security researchers speculate that the attack may be related to the "infinite minting" of stablecoins using cross-chain mechanisms, while others believe that the possibility of private key leakage cannot be ruled out, but the officials have not yet confirmed the specific attack vector.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that given the current risks, the Federal Reserve should not signal a pause in the interest rate cut cycle.

According to Jinshi News, Brian Martin, head of G3 economies research at ANZ Bank, stated that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in January, but the view that the rate cut cycle will be paused for a long time lacks reasonable basis. He expects the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points in March and another 25 basis points in June, bringing the target rate down to 3%-3.25% by mid-year. Martin pointed out that U.S. inflation will gradually ease by 2026.

U.S. Senator and senior Democratic member of the Senate Banking Committee Elizabeth Warren has called for a pause on the application for a national trust bank charter related to World Liberty Trust Co. until Donald Trump divests his family's holdings in the related digital asset business.Reports indicate that Warren has written to Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Director Jonathan Gould, requesting a delay in the application process while Trump still holds relevant interests. She pointed out that if the application is approved, the rules set by regulators could directly impact the profitability of the president's related businesses, creating a serious conflict of interest.Warren stated that Congress failed to address such issues when passing the GENIUS Act, and therefore the Senate has a responsibility to confront these conflicts while reviewing legislation on cryptocurrency market structure. Currently, the Senate Banking Committee is set to hold hearings on related bills, but the latest leaked draft has not included the government ethics provisions previously requested by Democrats.

According to Jinshi, the unemployment rate in the United States has decreased, and traders have increased their bets on the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin responded on the X platform to U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders' proposal to pause the construction of large AI data centers.Vitalik believes that the truly effective approach should be to prepare the capability to "cut 90-99% of computing power" at critical moments in the future, rather than just slowing down immediately; he also supports distinguishing between "super-large clusters" and consumer-grade AI hardware, and advocates for decentralized development.

According to Jin Shi reports, CITIC Securities research report states that the number of new non-farm jobs in the U.S. in October decreased significantly, with some federal government employees who accepted the "delayed resignation" plan dropping out of the payroll, leading to a drag on the overall reading from the government sector.If the unemployment rate does not continue to rise in December, CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in January next year, with one more potential 25 basis point cut in the remaining two meetings.

According to Jinshi News, Huatai Securities pointed out that at 2 a.m. Beijing time on December 11 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve announced its decision from the December meeting, lowering interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and initiating reserve management purchases (RMPs). The dot plot maintains guidance for one rate cut each in 2026-27; Powell's remarks were dovish.Considering that the job market will gradually improve, it is expected that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in the future.

According to Jinshi News, UBS (UBS.N) jumped 2.8% in U.S. stocks, as trading was suspended due to its high stock price volatility.

According to Jin Shi reports, Ali Jaffery, a capital markets analyst at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, stated when assessing the U.S. non-farm payroll data for September that the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes in December largely depends on insufficient data, which may delay policy decisions until next year in order to act after obtaining complete data. He believes this is a wiser choice, especially in the context of legal challenges to tariffs.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that economic resilience suggests a pause in interest rate cuts in October. Data shows that the economic situation has remained stable since the October meeting. He does not have a strong inclination towards a rate cut in December.

According to Jinshi News, Nomura Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in December. Although the U.S. government shutdown has affected the release of official data, recent indicators still show that the labor market is resilient. The firm pointed out that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's unexpectedly strong tone at the October press conference reinforced the view of pausing interest rate cuts, and it is expected that President Trump will criticize this decision, claiming it is an premature restriction on economic growth.

An article recently published by Forbes quoted Bitget CEO Gracy Chen's latest views on ETF fund inflows and the impact of institutional capital. She pointed out that the core driver of the current Bitcoin price has shifted to U.S. market liquidity, rather than capital from Europe, the Middle East, or Asia. Funds from these regions are more inclined to flow into gold and the stock market, which also explains the strong performance of gold, AI-related U.S. stocks, and Chinese stock indices this year.Gracy Chen believes that once the U.S. government ends the shutdown in November, fiscal spending and market liquidity will restart; if the Federal Reserve pauses balance sheet reduction and initiates a rate-cutting cycle in December, a new bull market for Bitcoin may officially begin. As early as January this year, Gracy Chen boldly predicted, "BTC is expected to break through $130,000 and further surge to $150,000 to $200,000." Although this target has not yet been achieved, she emphasized that once the government shutdown ends and the Federal Reserve shifts to easing, it is only a matter of time before Bitcoin reaches $150,000, whether in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year. "I have personally reloaded my positions and look forward to witnessing Bitcoin set new historical highs with everyone."

According to Jinshi News, Simon Ballard and Almaha Alnuaimi from First Abu Dhabi Bank stated that the U.S. government shutdown and the interruption of official economic data releases have made the outlook more complex and unclear, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in December. Analysts pointed out that the uncertainty brought about by the government shutdown may strengthen the Federal Reserve's rationale for "hitting the pause button" in December.