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In the Polymarket prediction event "Bitcoin price above x dollars," the current probability of BTC being above $72,000 today is only 4%, and the probability of being above $74,000 is less than 1%; the probability of being above $70,000 is also only 81% (below the current market price).Last night, the price of Bitcoin briefly surged, rising close to $74,000, but then quickly fell back, currently fluctuating around $70,600, with the probabilities in the related prediction markets clearly cooling down.

High-performance parallel Layer 1 public chain Pharos announced a new round of capital cooperation upgrade with Hong Kong Stock Exchange listed company GCL-Poly Energy, with GCL-Poly Energy completing an investment subscription in Pharos at a valuation of nearly $1 billion.This investment delivery stems from the preliminary announcement released by GCL-Poly Energy and was officially finalized after completing the regulatory disclosure procedures required by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The compliance framework is based on the information disclosure standards of Hong Kong listed companies. The two parties will collaborate on scenarios such as the tokenization of new energy assets, distributed energy trading, and carbon footprint tracking, promoting the large-scale implementation of real-world assets (RWA). Pharos's underlying architecture is EVM compatible, with the test network processing over 20,000 transactions per second (TPS) and supporting sub-second transaction confirmations. Pharos co-founder and CEO Wish Wu stated that this cooperation aims to create a standard model for integrating Web3 technology into the physical industry, and the nearly $1 billion valuation reflects the market's recognition of its technological value.

The probability of the Polymarket "Federal Reserve to cut interest rates" event has dropped by 11% in the last 24 hours, currently reported at 28%, having previously reached as high as 39%. The trading volume for this event is nearly $1.8 million.Previously, the continuous increase in core PCE is unfavorable for the Federal Reserve's dovish stance. In addition, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2026 and March 2027, whereas the previous forecast was for cuts in June and September of this year.

AI infrastructure company Polynado announced the completion of a $10 million financing round. This round was participated in by institutions such as LD Capital, Vessel Capital, Leland Ventures, Waterdrip Fund, Cogitent Ventures, and Adaverse Ventures.The official statement indicated that Polynado aims to build a "Bloomberg-level" intelligence data layer for on-chain prediction markets represented by Polymarket, primarily serving professional traders and fund institutions. Its core product offers terminal-level data dashboards, supporting AI-assisted analysis, on-chain capital flow tracking, strategy agent backtesting and deployment, as well as intelligent alert functions for changes in trading volume and odds.

According to official news, the identity verification infrastructure VeryAI has announced the completion of a $10 million financing round, led by Polychain Capital, with participation from angel investors including the Berggruen Institute, Anagram, and Solana co-founder Toly.VeryAI is committed to building a privacy-first verification system based on palm print biometrics and cryptographic identity technology, aiming to distinguish real humans from bots, deepfakes, and synthetic identities at internet scale.

According to The Block, Polymarket's 5-minute up-and-down crypto prediction market has become its most popular market less than a month after launch, with a daily trading volume exceeding $60 million, providing 288 prediction windows in a single day, accounting for 67% of its total crypto up-and-down prediction trading volume.

According to Bloomberg, citing informed sources, Polymarket is hiring companies including Palantir Technologies to help regulate its sports contract trading. This move is particularly noteworthy as the prediction market faces increasing scrutiny over insider trading issues.Informed sources stated that Palantir Technologies and TWG AI will assist Polymarket in identifying, preventing, and reporting suspicious activities. These individuals requested anonymity as the information has not been made public.They also mentioned that the measures include screening participants to cross-check against existing lists to confirm whether individuals who have been banned from participating in sports betting are attempting to trade on the platform.

Polymarket website data shows that the probability of the event "Kraken will go public this year" surged to 93% tonight, and has now fallen back to 69%, with a trading volume exceeding $260,000.Previously, it was reported that Nasdaq is collaborating with Kraken's parent company, Payward, to promote tokenized stock trading.

According to Bloomberg, the on-chain prediction market platform Polymarket plans to introduce binary options products for the S&P 500 index, allowing users to bet on whether the index price will "rise" or "fall."

According to The Wall Street Journal, the two leading prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, are recently in talks with potential investors for funding, with valuations around $20 billion.Last year, it was reported that Polymarket was negotiating funding at a valuation of $12 billion. In December, Kalshi completed a $1 billion financing round, bringing its valuation to $11 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are in talks with potential investors for a new round of financing, with target valuations of around $20 billion. Sources indicate that the valuations of both companies were about half of this level at the end of last year.As competition in the prediction market intensifies, both sides are accelerating their efforts to capture user growth, thereby driving negotiations for the new round of financing.

A federal judge has remanded the case against Kalshi and Polymarket's parent company Blockratize back to state court in Nevada, stating that the relevant claims are primarily based on state law, and the Commodity Exchange Act does not completely preempt state law claims.This move means that Nevada regulators can continue to seek a temporary injunction in state court, increasing the risk that Kalshi and Polymarket may be restricted from offering event contract trading locally. Reports indicate that Kalshi is evaluating emergency appeal options, while Polymarket has applied for a stay of enforcement. Previously, Nevada authorities alleged that the relevant event contracts required licensing and litigation under state law.

According to the official announcement, Binance is expected to suspend the token deposit and withdrawal services for Polygon (POL) on March 4, 2026, at 21:00 (UTC+8) to support its network upgrade and hard fork.The project team will conduct the network upgrade and hard fork at block height 83,756,500 (expected on March 4, 2026, at 22:00 UTC+8).

The probability of Opinion on Polymarket issuing tokens on March 5 has risen to 95.5%. One day after the launch of OPN, the probability of the FDV exceeding $250 million is currently reported at 94%, and the probability of exceeding $500 million is currently reported at 67%.

Polygon officially announced on X that the POL burn amount in February reached a record high, totaling 28.2 million POL.Previously, it was reported that the trading volume of Polymarket, the most important application in the Polygon ecosystem, also hit a historic high in February.

According to CoinDesk, since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, dozens of contracts related to Iran have appeared on the prediction market Polymarket, with the prediction market for Khamenei's resignation attracting a trading volume of $45 million.The account with the highest trading volume is named "Curseaaaaaaa," which made a profit of $757,000 by betting "yes." Additionally, four other traders also achieved six-figure profits.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of the market for "Khamenei will step down as Iran's Supreme Leader before March 31" has sharply risen to 93% today, an increase of 85 percentage points from before, with a total market trading volume of $30.43 million.