probability

As a CEX platform connecting to Polymarket, Gate's data shows a significant divergence in market expectations regarding the prediction event "Will silver (SI) reach the target price by the end of June?" The probability of reaching $65 by the end of June is 61%, while the probability of being below $60 is 48%. Against the backdrop of macro uncertainty and fluctuations in the metal market, the market's judgment on the price path of metals is becoming cautious, and the long-short game continues to heat up. Meanwhile, according to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour trading volume of silver (XAG) contracts on the Gate platform reached $112 million, ranking among the top globally.In addition, Gate Polymarket has completed a new round of functional upgrades and launched the "Upgrade Experience, Enjoy Up to 5,000 USDT Compensation Benefits" campaign simultaneously. During the event, new users can enjoy up to 100 USDT compensation on their first order, while existing users can receive up to 5,000 USDT in compensation, with a reward pool of 10,000 USDT for the earnings leaderboard. In the trend of accelerating integration between prediction markets and derivatives trading, Gate continues to enrich trading scenarios and strengthen platform liquidity and user participation experience.

Polymarket shows that the probability of "Powell resigning from the Federal Reserve Board before May 30" has plummeted to 9%, a 25% drop in 24 hours; the probability of "Powell resigning from the Federal Reserve Board before December 31" has fallen to 66%, an 11% drop in 24 hours. The event contract rules state that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is no longer a member of the Federal Reserve Board at any time during the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), it will be determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no."If Powell no longer serves as Federal Reserve Chairman but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board, it does not meet the criteria for a "yes" determination. The determination is based on information released by the U.S. government, but consensus from credible reports can also serve as a basis. Powell stated at a press conference this morning that he will continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Board member "for a while" after stepping down as chairman and promised to "keep a low profile." U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen responded that "if Powell remains a Federal Reserve Board member, it would be unusual; for someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition."Polymarket continues to monitor the prediction market and sees changes before pricing.

The probability of "Printr public sale raising over $4 million" on Polymarket has dropped to 63%, falling over 30% within the day, with a trading volume of nearly $3.26 million.Printr is a cross-chain token issuance platform that supports users and AI agents in issuing, trading, and staking tokens in a multi-chain environment. It has currently been deployed on 8 blockchains, including Solana, Base, BNB Chain, and Ethereum, and offers features such as customizable fee structures, cross-chain trading, and staking incentive mechanisms. Data shows that the project has currently raised over $2.46 million, with about 35 hours remaining until the fundraising ends.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 99%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until July is also 99%, with a rate cut probability of 1%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 98.8%, with a rate cut probability of 1.2%.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 98.6% (before the decision it was 98.8%), and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.4% (before the decision it was 1.2%). The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until July is 96.5% (before the decision it was 94.6%), and the probability of a rate cut is 3.4% (before the decision it was 5.4%). The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 96.1% (before the decision it was 92.7%), and the probability of a rate cut is 3.8% (before the decision it was 7.2%).

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged today is 100%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 98.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 1.2%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until July is 94.6%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 5.4%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 92.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 7.2% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 0.2%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%. In addition, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points by June is 2.6%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.4%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%. In addition, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points by June is 4.5%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.5%.

Recently, Gate predicts that the market expectations for Ethereum's price performance on April 27 are highly consistent. Data shows that the current probability of "ETH being above $1800" and various ranges such as "$1900/$2000/$2100" all reach 100%, while the probability of being above $2200 also reaches 99%, indicating a significantly bullish market sentiment. In contrast, the probability for $2300 is about 72%, while the probability for above $2400 drops sharply to 7%, reflecting a divergence in short-term upward expectations.Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with prediction markets, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.It is worth noting that Gate's performance in the Polymarket partnership channel continues to improve, currently ranking in the top two, with a significant expansion in user participation scale. The cumulative trading volume has reached $24.87 million, with a total of 206,055 transactions, reflecting the increasing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%. In addition, the probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by June is 4.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95.3%.

According to Jinshi reports, as the situation in the Middle East drives up oil prices, traders in the U.S. Treasury market are closely monitoring this week's Federal Reserve meeting to assess officials' views on the inflation outlook. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates on Wednesday, but traders tend to believe that there will still be rate cuts before the end of the year. Swap market data shows that the probability of a rate cut before the end of the year has risen to around 40%. Traders will listen carefully to Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference to gather insights on his plans after his term ends in May next year. Meanwhile, a series of U.S. Treasury auctions will also take place this week to test market demand at the current yield levels.

Polymarket's latest data shows that the market probability for the bet "MegaETH's market capitalization (FDV) exceeds 1 billion dollars one day after launch" is currently 88%, the probability of exceeding 600 million dollars is 97%, the probability of exceeding 800 million dollars is 93%, the probability of exceeding 1.5 billion dollars is 56%, and the probability of exceeding 2 billion dollars is 31%.Previous news indicated that MegaETH may conduct its TGE on April 30.

The probability on Polymarket that "Waller will be confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve before May 15" rose from 27% to 85%, a short-term increase of 211%. The reason is that the U.S. Department of Justice is expected to withdraw the criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Previously, Senator Banking Committee member Thom Tillis stated that if Trump did not withdraw the criminal investigation against current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, he would block Waller's nomination for Chairman of the Federal Reserve from entering the Senate's full voting process. Under the current influence of the news that the Department of Justice will withdraw the criminal investigation against Powell, the market expects that Waller has a very high probability of being confirmed by the Senate as Chairman of the Federal Reserve before Powell's term ends.

MegaETH announced that the TGE will take place on April 30, and the probability of "MegaETH issuing tokens before April 30" on Polymarket is currently 95%, which may be related to the settlement rules.The market settlement rule states that if MegaETH officially launches the governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the specified date, the prediction market result will be determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no." Another key rule is "the token must be publicly transferable and tradable; merely issuing a related announcement does not meet the determination criteria," which may cause the probability to not reach 100%. Odaily Seer’s prophet channel continues to monitor the prediction market and sees changes before pricing.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 99%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 96.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 1%.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 100%. In addition, the probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by June is 1.7%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 98.3%.

Polymarket's latest data shows that the current probability of the market betting on "Will Kelp DAO share this loss?" is 25%.This market was established around the April 19 incident where the Kelp DAO bridge was attacked. The attacker exploited a LayerZero cross-chain messaging vulnerability, withdrawing approximately $292 million in rsETH from the bridge, causing damage to the collateral backing for rsETH holders on the L2 network.According to Polymarket's market rules, if Kelp DAO announces or implements a mechanism before April 30 to share part or all of the losses with mainnet rsETH holders (rather than having all losses borne by L2 holders), the market will be determined as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No".

According to market news, the probability of Polymarket "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours. The event contract rules are as follows: if the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) publishes the number of vessels arriving at the port in the Strait of Hormuz with a 7-day moving average ("vessels arriving") equal to or greater than 60 on any date during the period from market creation to May 31, 2026, then the market will be determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no".The daily number of vessels arriving at the port includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered. It is reported that U.S. Vice President Pence will travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran on Tuesday. U.S. President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan.Trump stated that they will negotiate, and if not, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides can reach a "fair agreement" and emphasized that Iran will not have nuclear weapons. He further justified military action against Iran by stating there was no choice and claimed that they would ultimately complete the finishing work.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 100%. In addition, the probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively lowering interest rates by 25 basis points by June is 2.5%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 97.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 0.5%.