profit-taking

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated on Wednesday that Bitcoin's recent rally is facing an increasing risk of profit-taking, with multiple on-chain indicators showing that selling pressure is strengthening. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has slightly retreated but is testing the on-chain "realized price" of $76,800 for traders. This level is seen as a significant bearish resistance, historically often limiting the rebound space, as holders close to breaking even are more inclined to sell for profit, thereby suppressing further increases.Moreno pointed out, "This price range precisely capped the price increase during the bear market rebound in January 2026 and reversed downward after reaching that level. If the current selling pressure continues to strengthen, a similar trend may occur again." He added that if the resistance level holds, approximately $67,600 below will become the main short-term support. The report also noted that the proportion of large trades has rapidly increased from less than 10% to over 40%, and historically, this level usually corresponds to strong short-term selling pressure. Profit-taking has not yet peaked. Currently, the daily realized profit is about $500 million, below the $1 billion threshold that historically marks significant sell-off peaks.Finally, Moreno stated that if Bitcoin remains above $76,000, or even approaches the realized price level of $76,800, the daily realized profit could accelerate to over $1 billion, thereby increasing selling pressure and raising the likelihood of a temporary top or correction in the market.

CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin's recent rebound is facing increasing selling pressure risks, with on-chain data showing a significant rise in funds flowing into exchanges. Bitcoin previously broke through $76,000 but faced pressure and retreated as it approached the key resistance zone around $76,800. This position corresponds to the "on-chain realized price" range, which historically often becomes the top of a rebound, as many investors with positions close to breakeven tend to sell.Data shows that the hourly inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges has risen to about 11,000 coins, the highest level since the end of 2025, and is typically seen as a potential selling signal. At the same time, the scale of large holders (whales) transferring to exchanges is also expanding. Analysts believe that if this resistance level remains effective, Bitcoin may face short-term correction pressure, with key support levels around $67,600.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin fell back after reaching $74,000 mid-week, dropping about 3.7% in the past 24 hours and briefly falling below $70,000. Analysts believe this round of correction mainly reflects the profit-taking pressure from short-term traders, with some investors choosing to cash out after buying during the rebound. Despite the recent bounce, the market still lacks sufficient confidence in the sustainability of the upward trend.The sentiment in the derivatives market is also pessimistic, with funding rates remaining significantly negative, indicating that traders are paying fees to maintain short positions. However, there is still demand in the spot market. Recently, the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges reached a new high since 2026, while the fund flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has also turned back to net inflows. The current market shows a clear divergence, with institutional spot buying continuously accumulating Bitcoin, while derivatives traders are increasingly adding short positions. Historically, when spot accumulation and negative funding rates occur simultaneously, it often triggers a "short squeeze," where shorts are forced to close their positions, pushing prices up, but this outcome is not guaranteed.

At 8 AM today, the market value of the Base ecosystem meme coin CLAWSTR plummeted by 87% in a short period. Compared to yesterday's peak, its cumulative decline has reached 95%, with the current market value at approximately $900,000 and a 24-hour drop of 90%. Data shows that during this round of sell-off, several early buyers who had previously made profits chose to liquidate their positions at a loss. Among them, the trader address "0xdc5" had accumulated a position of $175,000 when the market value rose to $13.5 million and recorded a profit at one point, but ultimately exited with a loss of about $124,000 after the unrealized loss expanded to 70%. Additionally, addresses like "0x090" and "0xca6" also exited with losses after early purchases or adding to their positions during the pullback in this downturn.This meme coin was jointly issued by Nostr founder Derek Ross and Bitcoin ecosystem developer Alex Gleason as a community support token for Clawstr.com, which had significantly risen to a market value of $19.9 million yesterday. ChainCatcher reminds users that meme coin trading is highly volatile, largely relying on market sentiment and conceptual speculation, and has no actual value or use case, so investors should be aware of the risks.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the largest short address for ZEC (0xd475) has partially taken profits on its ETH short position, temporarily reducing its short position by 967.68 ETH, worth approximately 3.11 million dollars.After the reduction, the size of the ETH short position remains as high as 53.55 million dollars, with current floating profits of about 18.43 million dollars. This address is known for establishing large short positions on ZEC, having started shorting ZEC at 184 dollars and turning a loss of 21 million dollars into a profit.

On-chain analyst Ali posted on platform X, stating that after a 277% increase in the Axie Infinity token AXS this year, the TD Sequential indicator suggests that it may be time to take profits on AXS.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the 'ZEC largest short' address (0xd475) executed partial profit-taking on its ETH short position, temporarily reducing its short position by 1,055.93 ETH, worth approximately 3.02 million dollars.After the reduction, the size of the ETH short position remains as high as 118.7 million dollars, with current floating profits of about 11.04 million dollars. This address is known for establishing large short positions on ZEC, having started shorting ZEC at 184 dollars, turning a loss of 21 million dollars into a profit.

According to HyperInsight monitoring, the whale (0x94d37) closed a BTC long position 3 hours ago, realizing a profit of $711,000. It is currently still the largest holder of DASH short positions on Hyperliquid, shorting 112,150.15 DASH with 5x leverage, at an average entry price of $74.93, with an unrealized profit of $1.147 million.In addition, this address is still long on ETH and SOL, with an unrealized profit of $1.258 million.

According to Crypto Quant analyst Axel, the data shows that approximately 35,400 bitcoins in profit have flowed into CEX in the past 24 hours, the highest figure in nearly two months. In contrast, the outflow of loss-making coins is very low, at only about 4,600 coins. The profit/loss outflow ratio is approximately 7.5:1. Profit-taking behavior clearly dominates, with very little panic selling.Axel explains that the occurrence of high profit-taking in the context of a very low loss rate is a logical market behavior. Investors who bought in the $85,000–$92,000 range are taking the opportunity to lock in profits as prices approach their cost basis. This flow structure indicates that profit-taking behavior is driving market selling pressure, which is fundamentally different from the panic selling of loss positions. If the profit/loss ratio reverses (i.e., loss-driven selling begins to dominate), the bearish scenario will intensify, although this is not a given condition. Various charts depict a coherent picture, with the loss rate having narrowed to its lowest level, and it is precisely in this range that profit-taking behavior becomes active. Prices are testing the cost benchmark area while facing high supply pressure from profit positions.

According to monitoring by HyperInsight, the address marked as "20 Million Band Hunter" (0x880a) executed a take-profit operation on its PEPE short position, reducing its holdings by 144 million PEPE short contracts, valued at approximately $1.2169 million.After this partial take-profit, its PEPE short position still holds about $3.4299 million. The current floating profit of this position is approximately $360,600, with a return rate of 105.14%. The average holding price and the current coin price are both around $0.01, with a liquidation price of $0.051.This address is known for its high-frequency, multi-currency swing trading style, with an average holding time of about 20 hours. Since last October, it has accumulated nearly $100 million in profits with an initial capital of about $20 million.

According to CoinDesk, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin has rebounded to the price range that hindered its rise at the end of last year, and the profit-taking behavior of long-term holders has significantly slowed down. These "long-term holders," who have held Bitcoin for more than five months, are currently selling about 12,800 BTC per week to take profits, a pace that is far lower than the weekly sell-off of over 100,000 BTC when prices were above $100,000 last year.Analysis points out that this slowdown reduces resistance to price rebounds, but this price area has repeatedly suppressed upward momentum over the past few months, and any broader trend reversal will still need to first digest the sell-off from long-term holders. At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions may lead to increased market risk aversion, posing a downside risk to Bitcoin prices.

The chief research analyst of Glassnode, CryptoVizArt, stated that the market weakness warned about in November has largely materialized, and it is now necessary to reassess these signals and reevaluate the overall market structure. The excessive selling by long-term holders (LTH) continues to put pressure on the market's absorption capacity.Since Bitcoin's price broke through the historical highs of 2021-2022, long-term holders have realized profits of approximately 3.8 million Bitcoins. However, the selling pace of long-term holders has recently slowed down, and the continued cooling of this profit-taking activity is a key prerequisite for forming a lasting bottom.Currently, the scale of unrealized losses has stabilized at over 5% of the total market capitalization, marking the highest pressure level of this cycle to date. Despite the significant pressure, it remains far below the extreme loss conditions seen during deep bear markets, such as during the FTX collapse. In the current price range of about $90,000, approximately 20-30% of the Bitcoin supply is in a loss state. This market configuration is very similar to that of the first quarter of 2022—while the market is clearly under pressure, there has not yet been a typical widespread capitulation phenomenon seen in the later stages of a bear market.

According to Coinbob's popular address monitoring, in the past 4 hours, the "Ultimate Short" has once again closed a BTC short position worth approximately 5.13 million USD, recording a profit of about 1.49 million USD. Since the beginning of this month, it has cumulatively closed BTC short positions worth approximately 39.5 million USD.The current BTC short position size is about 55.36 million USD, with an unrealized profit of 16.08 million USD (581%), an average price of 111,500 USD, and a liquidation price of 99,300 USD. In addition, it has also newly opened a long position in the XYZ underlying with a 100x mapped contract, with a position size of about 1 million USD. The "Ultimate Short" whale has accurately bought low and sold high multiple times since opening this BTC short position on May 9.It is worth noting that since November, its operational rhythm has significantly changed, shifting to continuously closing positions for profit at local lows, without re-entering. From November to now, it has executed this type of closing 4 times in a row, and compared to its position peak in August, the current short position size has been reduced by approximately 99 million USD.According to records from the past 4 months, its closing points are as follows: closed BTC around 112,500 USD on August 19-20; closed BTC around 108,300 USD on August 30; closed ETH around 4,160 USD on September 22; closed BTC around 100,000---110,000 USD on October 11; closed BTC around 87,000 USD on November 25.

Chinese cryptocurrency analyst Banmuxia stated, "In terms of Bitcoin's daily chart, the MA5, MA10, and MA30 have formed a golden cross, thus creating a subsequent support area in the range of $90,500 to $91,300.If you have previously gone long on Bitcoin in the range of $89,000 to $90,000, $98,000, $103,300, and $112,500 can be considered as planned take-profit points, adjusting judgments based on market dynamics. However, the take-profit levels are no longer suitable entry points for going long, as the risk-reward ratio is very low."

According to Coinbob's popular address monitoring, in the past hour, the ultimate short whale (0x5D2) has been continuously closing BTC short positions to take profits, having closed approximately 4.3 million dollars, recording a profit of 1.17 million dollars, with an unrealized profit of 28.15 million dollars still remaining. In addition, its current position size is about 103 million dollars, with an average price of 111.5 thousand dollars and a liquidation price of 94.8 thousand dollars, currently ranking TOP 1 in BTC short positions on Hyperliquid.Furthermore, monitoring shows that this address has continuously withdrawn approximately 34.09 million dollars in account margin this month and has transferred a total of 40 million dollars to a Binance wallet, with a slight transfer of 3 million dollars in margin today to raise the average price.

According to HyperInsight monitoring analysis, among the 26 whales on Hyperliquid with BTC holdings exceeding 20 million USD, there are 12 long positions and 14 short positions. All long positions are experiencing varying degrees of unrealized losses (ranging from approximately -14% to -870%), while all short positions are seeing varying degrees of unrealized gains (ranging from approximately 14% to 647%).In addition, according to incomplete statistics, the stop-loss/stop-gain ranges for the aforementioned whales are as follows (excluding extreme values and excess margin addresses):Long positions:Stop-loss order range: 82,000 USD --- 89,000 USD;Liquidation range: 74,100 USD --- 84,900 USD, average 79,300 USD;Average holding price: 102,190 USDShort positions:Take-profit order range: 75,000 USD --- 89,000 USD;Liquidation range: 98,000 USD --- 136,000 USD, average 116,000 USD;Average holding price: 104,920 USDAdditionally, according to Coinglass data, if BTC rises to 92,800 USD, the total network short liquidation intensity will reach 475 million USD; if BTC falls to 89,480 USD, the total network long liquidation intensity will reach 873 million USD.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant indicates that even if Bitcoin breaks through $126,000 this week to set a new high, the market's profit-taking levels remain relatively low.In the past 30 days, the total net realized profit of Bitcoin holders has been 260,000 BTC (approximately $30 billion), down about 50% from 530,000 BTC ($63 billion) in July, and far below the peaks in March and December 2024 (which were $78 billion and $99 billion, respectively). CryptoQuant states that low realized profits mean investors are more inclined to hold rather than cash out, suggesting that "the upward trend of Bitcoin may continue, and we are still some distance from the true peak." CryptoQuant also added that, from an annual trend perspective, net realized profits are still on the rise, and this metric has historically been closely related to enhanced price momentum.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bitcoin fell back after reaching an all-time high in the previous trading day due to traders taking profits. In the week ending October 3, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds reached $3.2 billion. Deus X Pay's trading director James Madden stated that the rise in Bitcoin is driven by institutional demand, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and seasonal momentum, with market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates.