quant

According to Cryptoquant, the Bitcoin Comprehensive Market Index (BCMI), composed of MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear and Greed Index, is currently testing a historically key pivot zone. Analyst Woominkyu (@Woo_Minkyu) stated that the BCMI index has fallen to the range of 0.2 to 0.3. While it does not guarantee an immediate "V-shaped" reversal, this area historically corresponds to deeply undervalued levels for BTC.Through data backtracking, BCMI confirms that the current pullback has reset realized value and market sentiment to levels not seen since the beginning of 2023; however, the 90-day moving average (white line) is still trending downward. From a conservative perspective, it is necessary to wait for this slope to flatten, which will signal the exhaustion of selling pressure. Additionally, analyst Woominkyu believes the market is entering a "value accumulation zone," where the downside potential is shrinking compared to the long-term upside potential. However, it is still necessary to wait for price stabilization to confirm the bottom signal of the index.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated that Bitcoin should adopt an optional quantum-resistant upgrade scheme, rather than the mandatory freezing of tokens at risk from quantum threats proposed in BIP-361.The BIP-361 proposal suggests phasing out addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks over five years and ultimately freezing un-migrated tokens, including assets held by Satoshi Nakamoto. Google's latest research indicates that a superconducting qubit system may need fewer than 500,000 physical qubits to crack Bitcoin encryption in just a few minutes. Currently, about 6.9 million BTC are at risk from such threats. In response to the quantum threat, BitMEX Research proposed establishing a canary fund that would implement a full freeze only when expenditures occur from the relevant addresses.

According to market news, Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated at the Paris Blockchain Week that he supports the optional advancement of Bitcoin's quantum resistance upgrade and opposes the proposal to forcibly freeze quantum-vulnerable addresses. He emphasized that "preparation is much safer than hasty responses in a crisis" and pointed out that the Bitcoin community has the coordination ability to respond quickly to urgent vulnerabilities.Previously, the BIP-361 proposal ("Post-Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset") put forward by developers Jameson Lopp and five others advocated for the gradual elimination of quantum-vulnerable addresses over five years, ultimately freezing coins that have not completed migration— including approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins held by Satoshi Nakamoto.

According to CoinDesk, Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated at Paris Blockchain Week that Bitcoin developers should advance optional quantum-resistant upgrades as early as possible, even though practical quantum computers are still far from being realized.He pointed out that Taproot's flexible design can support the introduction of new quantum-resistant signature schemes without affecting existing users. Previously, Jameson Lopp and others proposed BIP - 361, which aims to gradually phase out addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks within 5 years and freeze Bitcoin that has not completed migration. Adam Back believes that the Bitcoin community can quickly coordinate responses in emergencies without the need for pre-established freezing arrangements.

According to official news, BitMEX Research has released a new research article proposing that in response to the risk of future quantum computers potentially breaking elliptic curve signatures, the Bitcoin network could adopt an alternative soft fork mechanism to "directly freeze" to reduce controversy and increase flexibility.The proposal revolves around "quantum-vulnerable fund freezing," but suggests avoiding the direct freezing of all related assets without evidence, instead gradually implementing security strategies through a verifiable condition-triggering mechanism. The core of the proposal is to establish a "signal vault," which contains special addresses generated using "accidental numbers" to prove that no one possesses their private keys. If passive spending occurs from that address, it will be regarded as on-chain evidence that quantum computing capabilities genuinely exist, thereby immediately triggering a comprehensive freeze of quantum-vulnerable assets.At the same time, the fund could attract capital through a multi-signature structure as a "quantum bounty," aimed at incentivizing potential attackers to expose their capabilities. The article also mentions that there is currently a BIP-361 proposal promoting the phased disabling of the old signature system and ultimately freezing risky assets, but this proposal is controversial due to its involvement in "mandatory freezing."The newly proposed "signal-trigger + security window" mechanism aims to replace the fixed-time freeze path, reducing potential system shocks while retaining Bitcoin's censorship-resistant characteristics, but it also brings complexity and execution risk trade-off issues.

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated on Wednesday that Bitcoin's recent rally is facing an increasing risk of profit-taking, with multiple on-chain indicators showing that selling pressure is strengthening. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has slightly retreated but is testing the on-chain "realized price" of $76,800 for traders. This level is seen as a significant bearish resistance, historically often limiting the rebound space, as holders close to breaking even are more inclined to sell for profit, thereby suppressing further increases.Moreno pointed out, "This price range precisely capped the price increase during the bear market rebound in January 2026 and reversed downward after reaching that level. If the current selling pressure continues to strengthen, a similar trend may occur again." He added that if the resistance level holds, approximately $67,600 below will become the main short-term support. The report also noted that the proportion of large trades has rapidly increased from less than 10% to over 40%, and historically, this level usually corresponds to strong short-term selling pressure. Profit-taking has not yet peaked. Currently, the daily realized profit is about $500 million, below the $1 billion threshold that historically marks significant sell-off peaks.Finally, Moreno stated that if Bitcoin remains above $76,000, or even approaches the realized price level of $76,800, the daily realized profit could accelerate to over $1 billion, thereby increasing selling pressure and raising the likelihood of a temporary top or correction in the market.

CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin's recent rebound is facing increasing selling pressure risks, with on-chain data showing a significant rise in funds flowing into exchanges. Bitcoin previously broke through $76,000 but faced pressure and retreated as it approached the key resistance zone around $76,800. This position corresponds to the "on-chain realized price" range, which historically often becomes the top of a rebound, as many investors with positions close to breakeven tend to sell.Data shows that the hourly inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges has risen to about 11,000 coins, the highest level since the end of 2025, and is typically seen as a potential selling signal. At the same time, the scale of large holders (whales) transferring to exchanges is also expanding. Analysts believe that if this resistance level remains effective, Bitcoin may face short-term correction pressure, with key support levels around $67,600.

Bitcoin core developer Jameson Lopp stated that, compared to the potential quantum computing attacks that may arise in the future, he prefers to "freeze" about 5.6 million long-dormant BTC from the network rather than let them be acquired by attackers. These Bitcoins have not moved for over 10 years and may be permanently lost, valued at approximately $42 billion at current prices. If future breakthroughs in quantum computing lead to the decryption of old address private keys, this portion of assets could be re-transferred, triggering severe market fluctuations or even a crisis of confidence.Although the community recently proposed BIP-361, the proposal is still in its early stages and is not an officially promoted plan, but rather more like a contingency plan to address "extreme risks."

According to Decrypt, the institutional-level quantitative AI trading platform AlphaNet announced the completion of a $10 million seed round financing, led by private equity firm Joffre Capital, with participation from Huashan Capital and an Asian quantitative trading consortium. This round of financing will support its transition from an invitation-only whitelist model to a public platform release.It is reported that AlphaNet was incubated by the Asian proprietary trading firm Tensor Investment and is positioned as an institutional-level "systematic alpha" trading platform, aiming to provide retail users with trading capabilities that were previously only available to institutions.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that yesterday, when Bitcoin tested the $75,000 mark, short-term holders (STHs) significantly increased BTC transfers to exchanges, sending over 65,000 BTC within 24 hours. Among them, profit-taking was dominant, with about 61,000 BTC being sold for profit.Darkfost pointed out that any price increase is currently seen as an exit opportunity, regardless of whether it is profitable. Short-term holders remain highly sensitive and quick to react in the face of price fluctuations.

One of the Bitcoin contributors, Jameson Loop, along with other cryptographers, has proposed an initiative that may force Bitcoin holders to migrate their tokens to new quantum-resistant addresses, or else their tokens will be permanently frozen by the network itself. In this scenario, holders technically still own these coins but will lose the ability to transfer them. This is known as Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-361, which was updated on Tuesday in Bitcoin's official proposal repository, titled "Post-Quantum Migration and Old Signature Retirement."BIP-361 builds on the BIP-360 proposal introduced in February. BIP-360 introduced a soft fork (a type of network upgrade) aimed at enabling a new transaction type called "Pay to Merkle Root" (P2MR). This approach draws on Bitcoin's Taproot (P2TR) framework but removes key-based spending paths, thereby eliminating an element widely considered to pose risks in the quantum era.The BIP-361 proposal divides the migration into three phases. Phase A starts three years after activation and prohibits anyone from sending new bitcoins to old, quantum-vulnerable addresses. You can still spend from these addresses, but you cannot receive any coins. Phase B starts five years after activation and will render old signatures (ECDSA and Schnorr) completely ineffective, with the network rejecting any attempts to spend coins from quantum-vulnerable wallets.Essentially, your coins will be frozen. Finally, there is Phase C, which is a rescue plan still under research: holders of frozen wallets may potentially prove ownership through zero-knowledge proofs (a method of proving knowledge of a secret without revealing the secret itself). If successful, the coins frozen in Phase B can be recovered.

According to market news, Cypherpunk Jameson Lopp and several experts in the field of Bitcoin quantum security have proposed Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-361, which suggests freezing quantum-vulnerable addresses, including Satoshi Nakamoto's reserves, to prevent future quantum computers from stealing approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins.The proposal is to be implemented in three phases: first, prohibiting transfers to legacy addresses; second, invalidating legacy signatures and freezing untransferred assets after five years; and finally, allowing some users to recover frozen funds through a zero-knowledge proof mechanism. This proposal aims to promote the migration of the entire network to quantum-resistant addresses, but it has faced opposition from some community members who believe it contradicts the decentralized ethos of Bitcoin and has a predatory nature.

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein stated that the previous pullback of Bitcoin has to some extent reflected the market's concerns about the risks of quantum computing, believing that this threat is "real but manageable," and is not yet an imminent systemic risk.Although research, including that from Google, suggests that future quantum computers could potentially crack commonly used blockchain encryption algorithms quickly under extreme conditions, advancements in zero-knowledge proofs and post-quantum cryptography have formed a hedge to some extent.Bernstein believes that Bitcoin developers still have about 3 to 5 years to advance the post-quantum upgrade path and mentioned the current BIP-360 proposal, which could reduce some quantum exposure risks through a soft fork. Additionally, institutional investors (including ETF issuers and corporate holders) are expected to play an active role in promoting consensus for the upgrade.However, industry opinions point out that the main challenge of the post-quantum upgrade lies in user migration and consensus formation, rather than the technical implementation itself.

The Zcash core development team Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) founder Josh Swihart released the latest progress on Zcash, proposing a strategic direction centered on "post-quantum security, scalability, and user experience," and using the Artemis II lunar mission as a metaphor to emphasize achieving seemingly impossible goals through technological breakthroughs. The ZODL team stated that Zcash is entering the "Zcash IV" phase, which will build infrastructure similar to a "lunar base" to support the protocol and application security scaling to billions of users, while promoting the vision of privacy transactions without large-scale financial surveillance.On the product and technology front, ZODL continues to iterate, with its 3.3.x version now launched on iOS and Android, adding hardware wallet connection management, SDK upgrades, and multiple experience optimizations, while advancing key developments such as Keystone wallet functionality and address system upgrades (ZIP 316, UIVK/UFVK). Meanwhile, the Zcash core team has fixed multiple system issues and is advancing the development of the Zallet alpha version, while strengthening unified address standards and wallet interaction experiences, laying the groundwork for future scalability and performance improvements.In addition, ZODL disclosed that its application data continues to grow and participated in a stablecoin privacy summit to strengthen industry collaboration. However, due to upgrades in regulation and network restrictions, ZODL has temporarily removed its app from the Russian app store. The team emphasized that privacy is not an option but a fundamental need in the digital age, and will continue to accelerate delivery pace to promote the popularization of ZEC and ecological development in the future.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current Bitcoin market is entering an early stabilization phase, with long-term holding behavior gradually strengthening, indicating that the market structure may be undergoing a change.Data shows that since October, the number of BTC held for over one year has increased from about 12 million to approximately 12.4 million. Although the increase is still moderate, it reflects a shift in market behavior towards long-term holding. Since mid-December, the 30-day change has consistently remained positive, indicating that investors are more inclined to continue holding rather than distributing their assets. Darkfost pointed out that this change typically signifies a transition from a speculation-dominated phase to a stronger long-term conviction phase. Historically, the proportion of long-term holdings usually declines significantly at market peaks and gradually rises during bear markets, so the current trend can be seen as an early stabilization signal for the market. However, he also emphasized that this indicator belongs to a long-term dimension and typically requires a longer time to form a clear trend, and we are still in the early stages.

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha stated that the inflow of Bitcoin whales on the Binance platform has fallen below $3 billion for the first time since June 2025. The 30-day realized market value change for long-term holders (LTH) rebounded to $49 billion on April 9, marking the second time it has returned to this level since March 26.In contrast, the 30-day realized market value change for short-term holders (STH) dropped to -$54 billion, marking the third time it has fallen below -$50 billion since March 2.Overall, these data indicate that weak holders are still distributing Bitcoin, while long-term holders are re-entering to absorb the supply.

According to the latest "March 2026 Private Wealth Management Monthly Report" released by Gate, in March, BTC and ETH overall showed a "decline followed by stabilization" repair structure. Institutional allocation is centered on BTC, with ETH as a supplement. In March, BTC ETF saw a cumulative inflow of approximately $86.8 billion, while ETH ETF saw about $12.6 billion.Gate's private wealth quantitative fund performed steadily, with an average annual return of 5.7% for the USDT strategy. The Xinghe Smart Investment (USDT) had the highest return rate in the past year, reaching 9.5%. The Interstellar Hedge (USDT) achieved a cumulative return rate of 18.0%, with all 21 periods realizing positive returns, resulting in a total win rate of 100%. At the end of March, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz marginally eased, and the market's expectations leaned more towards a short-term disturbance scenario, with oil prices and inflation shocks being controllable, allowing risk assets to maintain moderate performance.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Avihu Levy of StarkWare published a research proposal titled "Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Transactions Without Soft Forks," proposing a quantum-safe Bitcoin scheme called QSB.This scheme aims to enable Bitcoin transactions to resist quantum computing attacks without changing the core rules of Bitcoin. QSB replaces the elliptic curve security mechanism with hash-based assumptions, shifting security to hash preimage resistance to defend against the threat of Shor's algorithm. The scheme operates within the existing script limitations of Bitcoin and does not require consensus changes or soft forks.However, QSB transactions exceed the standard relay strategy limitations and cannot propagate through the network under default settings; they need to be submitted directly to miners through services like Slipstream. The paper estimates that the cost of generating valid transactions using cloud GPUs is approximately $75 to $150. The complete transaction assembly and broadcasting of the project have not yet been demonstrated on-chain.

Zhao Changpeng stated in an interview with TBPN that quantum computing could disrupt existing cryptocurrency mechanisms, and Bitcoin may need to fork to adopt quantum-resistant encryption technology. "Quantum computing may be able to break existing encryption mechanisms, but as quantum computing develops, new encryption algorithms will emerge. There are already quantum-resistant encryption algorithms, and quantum computers do not have an advantage in breaking these algorithms. Therefore, we just need to upgrade the protocol and adopt these encryption mechanisms."

According to market news, Strategy founder Michael Saylor stated that Bitcoin likely bottomed around $60,000 in early February, when forced sellers were cleared from the market. The bottom is more determined by seller exhaustion rather than valuation. He believes that current selling pressure is limited, ETF inflows are absorbing daily supply, and corporate allocation of financial assets to Bitcoin is also creating sustained demand.Michael Saylor predicts that the catalyst for the next bull market will be the establishment of a banking credit and digital credit system built on Bitcoin, which will transform Bitcoin from a non-yielding asset into a capital market engine. Regarding the recently discussed threat of quantum computing, he believes the risks are exaggerated, and quantum threats remain theoretical and are likely to emerge decades later. By then, there will also be solutions. Mizuho maintains an outperform rating on Strategy with a target price of $320, which offers about 150% upside from the current stock price of $127.