quantum

According to a report by Cointelegraph, Ark Invest and Unchained jointly released a report stating that although most of the Bitcoin supply is secure against breakthroughs in quantum computing, approximately 34.6% of Bitcoin still faces potential risks.The threatened amounts include about 5 million BTC (25% of the total supply) that are transferable due to address reuse, around 1.7 million BTC (8.6%) stored in early P2PK addresses, and about 200,000 BTC (approximately 1%) affected by the P2TR address type.If quantum computers can break Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), these funds may face the risk of theft, but this stage is expected to take years to achieve. Ark Invest believes that this is a "long-term risk," and therefore the Bitcoin community has ample time to research and implement quantum protection measures.

According to Cointelegraph, PsiQuantum has launched the construction of a fault-tolerant quantum computing facility in Chicago, aiming for 1 million quantum bits, using a photonic quantum computing approach that leverages mature semiconductor, fiber optic, and cooling technologies for scalability. The construction is progressing rapidly, with 500 tons of steel structure erected in just a few days. The first phase is expected to be partially completed around 2027, with the ultimate goal of becoming operational around 2028.The facility's computing power is equivalent to hundreds of billions of traditional computers, primarily serving the next generation of AI supercomputing. The crypto community is currently focused on its potential ability to crack Bitcoin. PsiQuantum co-founder Terry Rudolph has explicitly stated that there is no intention to use quantum computing to attack Bitcoin, and the company's scale makes it impossible to conduct such activities secretly. Recently, discussions about quantum threats have intensified, and the Bitcoin community is already discussing a hard fork as a response. Currently, the world's largest quantum computer has only 6,100 qubits, far from reaching the practical threshold, posing limited short-term threats to Bitcoin.

Quantum computing company PsiQuantum has launched the construction of a million-qubit quantum computing facility in Chicago. PsiQuantum co-founder Peter Shadbolt shared photos from the construction site on the X platform on Thursday, stating that 500 tons of steel have been erected in six days.The company previously announced in September that it had raised $1 billion to build the facility, in collaboration with chip manufacturer Nvidia, aiming to make quantum computing commercially viable to support the next generation of AI supercomputers. Scientists say that the computational power of a million qubits is equivalent to that of hundreds of billions of ordinary computers, enough to crack Bitcoin's encryption technology. Bitcoin developers are currently discussing whether to take immediate action against quantum threats through a hard fork.A preprint scientific paper released last month suggests that breaking a 2048-bit key would require about 100,000 qubits, while Bitcoin encryption uses a 256-bit key. The largest quantum computer currently comes from the California Institute of Technology, with a scale of 6,100 qubits. PsiQuantum co-founder Terry Rudolph stated in July that the company has no plans to use quantum computers to derive private keys from public keys.Research by crypto asset management firm CoinShares in February of this year pointed out that only 10,230 Bitcoins are simultaneously vulnerable to quantum threats, with wallet addresses' encryption keys publicly visible, amounting to approximately $728 million at current market prices.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin released the "Quantum Roadmap" this Thursday, proposing several improvement plans to address blockchain quantum security vulnerabilities, including hash signatures, recursive STARKs, native account abstraction, and protocol-level signature aggregation. The core goal is to replace the currently vulnerable ECDSA encryption architecture.Among these, the "frame transactions" proposal has been included in the discussion agenda for the Ethereum upgrade version Hegota, expected to be launched in the second half of 2026, with hopes of implementation within this year. Vitalik warned last November that quantum computers could break Ethereum's existing security model by 2028.The Ethereum Foundation has established a special post-quantum team, set up a $1 million bounty, and initiated bi-weekly technical seminars. Researcher Justin Drake emphasized that in a highly decentralized ecosystem, formulating a binding "official roadmap" is actually not feasible.

According to CoinDesk, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has released a long-term roadmap aimed at addressing the potential threats to network security posed by future quantum computing through changes in signature and data schemes.The roadmap indicates that Ethereum faces risks of being compromised by quantum computing in consensus validator signatures (currently BLS), data availability schemes (which rely on KZG commitments), daily wallet transaction signatures, and certain zero-knowledge proofs. Buterin suggests that validators switch to hash signatures that are more resistant to quantum attacks, and centers around proposal EIP-8141 to pave the way for the transition of account signature algorithms and "Validation Frames," thereby supporting quantum-safe signatures and proofs while reducing on-chain verification costs.

Bitcoin Core developer Murch announced on February 11 that BIP 360 (Pay to Merkle Root, P2MR) has officially entered the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal repository, marking the first time the Bitcoin development community has incorporated quantum resistance into the official technical roadmap.The proposal was co-authored by Hunter Beast, Ethan Heilman, and Isabel Foxen Duke, and is currently in the review and discussion stage, with no protocol changes activated yet.

StarkWare CEO Eli Ben-Sasson spoke on X about the potential impact of quantum computing on the crypto industry, calling for a proactive deployment of post-quantum security upgrades across multi-chain ecosystems, including Bitcoin, and proposed a five-step action plan:Acknowledge the threat and clearly recognize that once quantum computers mature, they will pose a severe challenge to the existing public key cryptography system, and take decisive action to implement countermeasures.Enhance education and information dissemination, systematically learn about the current state of quantum computing development and feasible solutions in post-quantum cryptography (PQC), and spread relevant knowledge within the community to raise overall awareness.Organize and invest resources to support and collaborate with post-quantum cryptography experts, promote multiple research and engineering practices, and provide funding and community initiative support for related projects.Listen to expert advice and establish standards, with experts proposing specific technical routes, including the selection of new signature algorithm standards and the reasonable post-quantum security levels required for hash functions.Promote protocol and infrastructure upgrades, introduce new quantum-resistant signature mechanisms at the core protocol layer, and ensure compatibility and integration with key infrastructures such as wallets to ensure a smooth transition.

According to Decrypt, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated, "Quantum computing will not destroy blockchain. Coinbase has been very proactive in this regard. Coinbase has established a quantum advisory board and maintains regular contact with major blockchain network development teams to discuss pathways to upgrade to a post-quantum encryption world. We will continue to monitor this issue, and I believe it is entirely solvable."

Star investor Kevin O'Leary from "Shark Tank" posted on the X platform that he remains bullish on Bitcoin, but now quantum computing has become a new concern. He stated that quantum computing is causing institutions to hesitate, as they worry that one day quantum computers might crack the blockchain.As long as this issue remains unresolved, institutional investors are unlikely to increase their allocation to Bitcoin above 3%. They will remain cautious and disciplined, waiting for clearer conclusions.

F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun posted on platform X, stating that quantum computing is more like a technological bubble compared to AI. The current industry is filled with hype but has almost no actual delivery results. AI is continuously improving the real world, while quantum computing is expected to remain unable to achieve practical applications by 2026, and it is anticipated to struggle to generate substantial industrial value in the coming decades. His trading view is to short quantum computing while maintaining a long position in Bitcoin.He also specifically named several quantum computing concept stocks that he is bearish on, including: Rigetti Computing ($RGTI), D-Wave Quantum ($QBTS), Quantum Computing Inc. ($QUBT), and IonQ ($IONQ). Wang Chun added that the current products and commercialization capabilities of these companies are insufficient, and market valuations are largely based on long-term technological expectations.

Renowned analyst Willy Woo stated on the X platform that the 12-year valuation trend of Bitcoin relative to gold has recently been broken. BTC's relative valuation should be higher, but in reality, it has not been achieved, mainly due to a market awakening to the risks of quantum computing, leading to early pricing of potential issues.Bitcoin is likely to be patched in the future through quantum-resistant signatures, but this does not solve the problem of approximately 4 million "lost" BTC (early lost private keys may be cracked by quantum computers) re-entering circulation. Willy Woo estimates a 75% probability that these lost Bitcoins will not be frozen through a protocol hard fork, so the market needs to account for the selling pressure of 4 million coins in advance.Since MicroStrategy began accumulating BTC in 2020, the total accumulation by enterprises and ETFs is only 2.8 million BTC. These 4 million lost tokens are equivalent to 8 years of corporate accumulation, which will result in serious supply dilution. Before "Q-Day" (the day quantum computing threats materialize, expected in 5-15 years), BTC prices will continue to be affected by this cloud of uncertainty.

According to Cointelegraph, venture capitalist Nic Carter stated in a podcast that the long-term inaction of Bitcoin developers regarding the potential threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin may lead to dissatisfaction among large institutions holding significant amounts of Bitcoin (such as BlackRock), ultimately triggering an "institutional takeover."Nic Carter warned that institutions will not tolerate the core security issues of Bitcoin being ignored for an extended period. "If developers continue to be inactive, institutions will lose patience and will fire the current developers, replacing them with new ones."

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-360 has been merged into the official codebase to enhance resistance against quantum attacks.

According to relevant page information, Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP-360) has been added to the official code repository.This proposal introduces the Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR) output type, aimed at enhancing Bitcoin's defense against quantum computing threats through a soft fork.

According to market news, Strategy's Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced during the earnings call that a Bitcoin security initiative is planned to address quantum computing and other future security threats. This initiative will collaborate with global cybersecurity, cryptographic security, and Bitcoin security councils to coordinate relevant research and risk responses.Saylor stated that the current consensus is that quantum threats are not expected to materialize for at least another 10 years or longer, and many global teams are already developing quantum-resistant protocols. He emphasized that Bitcoin is scalable, and if a quantum upgrade is needed in the future, its network will become more resilient as a result. He also reminded that it is crucial to seize the opportunity to address such risks; acting too early may lead to immature technology, while acting too late could result in unnecessary risks.

Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Thorn stated that a certain client of Galaxy recently sold approximately $9 billion in Bitcoin, not due to the so-called "quantum computing risk" considerations.He pointed out that although Galaxy Digital founder and CEO Mike Novogratz mentioned that some opinions in the market view quantum computing as one of the explanations for the weakening of Bitcoin prices, Novogratz himself does not agree with this statement.

According to market news, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated during the earnings call that the biggest risk Bitcoin currently faces is internal governance issues, rather than quantum computing. He believes that quantum computing is more of a market hype narrative and expects Bitcoin to upgrade to quantum-resistant technology in a timely manner.Novogratz pointed out that the real long-term threat to Bitcoin lies in the potential for persistent disagreements among developers or the inability to reach consensus on upgrades, but he believes this scenario is unlikely to occur, as Bitcoin has the capability to address these issues. When discussing the recent market decline, Novogratz noted that the selling pressure mainly comes from the distribution of chips by long-term holders, rather than a collapse of market confidence.While acknowledging the possibility of further downside, he intuitively feels that the market is closer to the cycle bottom rather than the beginning of another prolonged crypto winter. He mentioned that the legislative framework for cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. could serve as a catalyst to attract new demand through Wall Street channels, and pointed out that Bitcoin's role as a macro asset supported by both retail and institutional investors has been solidified.

Framework Ventures co-founder Vance Spencer stated, "If the current development trend continues, ETH will become the only quantum-safe cryptocurrency and will surpass BTC within 1 to 2 years. All computing platforms are influenced by broader technological trends, and they need to integrate these trends to remain competitive. Ethereum has already integrated stablecoins, tokenization, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. So far, BTC has not adopted any of these technologies."

According to official news, Optimism has released the quantum-resistant roadmap for Superchain, with the core content announcing the gradual phasing out of externally owned accounts (EOA) based on ECDSA signatures over the next decade. The specific plan is that by January 2036, EOA transactions using ECDSA signatures on the OP mainnet and superchain will be deprecated, and all such accounts must delegate their key management to smart contract accounts that support post-quantum signatures.The roadmap covers both user and consensus levels. At the user level, account abstraction technology will be utilized, through standards like EIP - 7702, to gradually delegate signature authority from EOA to smart accounts capable of verifying post-quantum signatures. At the consensus level, L2 sequencers and batch submitters will migrate to post-quantum signatures, while also calling for Ethereum itself to establish a timeline to transition validators from BLS signatures and KZG commitments to post-quantum algorithms. The entire upgrade process will be coordinated through a hard fork, providing the ecosystem with a decade to achieve a smooth transition.