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first_img Glassnode: Bitcoin rose 23% on the 21st, with resistance between $83,000 and $86,000

On-chain analysis platform Glassnode released a report stating that Bitcoin has risen 23% over the past 21 trading days, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained flat during the same period, but are still down 10% year-to-date. The cost basis of long-term holders, the futures liquidation map, and the breakeven point for the U.S. spot ETF all indicate upper resistance between $83,000 and $86,000, with the highest spot price approximately 1.5% below the bottom of that range, followed by a narrow consolidation below $80,000.Approximately 1.07 million Bitcoins were purchased by long-term holders in the $83,000 to $86,000 range, with the heaviest positions close to $85,000, and this block has remained nearly unchanged for the past 30 days. The selling pressure at the high point of the range is calculated at 7 basis points per day based on the selling risk ratio, which is less than half of August's peak of 16 basis points, and the profit realization ratio for long-term holders has dropped from 88% in August to 47%. The breakeven point for the U.S. spot ETF since its launch has been around $86,000, with the paper loss narrowing to approximately $3.9 billion.U.S. core inflation has fallen to a two-year low of 2.5%, with inflation expectations at 3.6%, marking the widest gap in three years; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.8%, near a two-year high. The derivatives liquidation heatmap shows that the short liquidation shelf between $82,000 and $86,000 has increased by 21% since the squeeze on August 19.

Glassnode: Bitcoin will still be in a range-bound fluctuation, with resistance at $83,000 to $86,000

Glassnode released a report stating that a short squeeze in mid-August drove Bitcoin's rebound, breaking above $80,000 on August 27. However, the price subsequently encountered resistance in the long-term supply zone above and fell back to around $76,000, triggering a series of long liquidations. Currently, there is still a large amount of potential short liquidation positions clustered between $83,000 and $86,000, while the area between $60,000 and $63,000 contains an undigested long liquidation zone, with BTC positioned between the two.On-chain data shows that when Bitcoin traded around $78,000 in May this year, about 65% of the supply was in profit; by the end of August, when it returned to the same price level, that ratio had risen to 68%. The summer redistribution of chips pushed the cost basis of short-term holders to about $71,000, and the same price now would activate more profit-taking chips, increasing potential selling pressure. Considering the overall cost basis and chip distribution, the accumulation support zone is between $62,000 and $65,000, while the concentrated supply zone for long-term holders is between $83,000 and $86,000.The average net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF during the rebound peaked at $290 million per day over seven days, but the daily trading volume in the secondary market remained around $3 billion, significantly lower than during the previous expansion phase. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds briefly fell to 4.6% after the Treasury's repurchase announcement on August 19, but returned to 4.8% in just eight trading days, reaching a new high for this cycle, indicating that sovereign debt pressure is still affecting market valuations. In the options market, short-term optimism has cooled, while long-term options demand remains. The open interest for Deribit and IBIT options expiring on September 25 is about $14 billion, with a large number of positions concentrated above $80,000, which may become important volatility and position anchor points in the coming weeks. Before the supply above $83,000 to $86,000 is digested, BTC will continue to maintain range-bound fluctuations, with $62,000 to $65,000 being the main downward reference area.
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