short-term

According to monitoring by Glassnode, investors who previously bought at high prices in the Bitcoin market are currently selling off. Data shows that there are two groups currently in a loss state: one group consists of investors who bought at a price of $97,000 one to two years ago, and the other group consists of investors who bought at a price of $89,000 six to twelve months ago.Analysis indicates that investors who entered during the price increase in 2025 are currently selling the most Bitcoin daily, while those who bottomed out during the market decline show a strong willingness to hold and are not selling off in large quantities.

Moonrock Capital's CEO and partner Simon Dedic posted on X, specifically criticizing the NFT market Blur and the Layer 2 network Blast founder Pacman. He stated that he cannot understand the choices made by founders like Pacman, as they have already established market positions through protocols like Blur and Blast, gaining support from top investors and significant attention.Simon Dedic mentioned that Pacman did not utilize the aforementioned conditions to create larger, more sustainable products for the long term, but instead chose to extract value and profit quickly in the short term. He noted that such situations are not uncommon, and therefore, more emphasis should be placed on honest builders who refuse to take the path of least resistance; if such individuals are found, they should be continuously supported.

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler stated that the current trading price of Bitcoin is approximately $83,700, which is 14% higher than the cost basis of short-term holders (STH). Data shows that over the past week, the cost basis of short-term holders increased by 1.2%, rising from $72,800 on September 24 to $73,700. Despite the continuous rise in cost basis, short-term holders still maintain an unrealized profit of about 13.7%, down from 15.4% a week ago.Meanwhile, the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin decreased from $48,900 to $48,800 over the past week, a decline of about 0.3%, marking one of the faster weekly declines this year. The current Bitcoin price is approximately 72% higher than the cost basis of long-term holders, who still have significant unrealized profit potential. Axel Adler noted that changes in the cost basis of long-term holders are mainly influenced by the duration of holding, and some high-cost chips may have shifted into the short-term holder group, thereby increasing the cost basis of short-term holders. If the weekly change in the cost basis of long-term holders returns to zero, it may indicate that this metric is stabilizing.

After the release of U.S. economic data, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose as traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

According to a report by The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno pointed out that Bitcoin's closing price last week was above the 365-day moving average, confirming the start of a new bull market. However, Moreno stated that after Bitcoin reached an eight-month high of $87,400, several indicators show that upward momentum is weakening, and a market correction may follow.The report noted that the on-chain unrealized profit margin for short-term traders has risen to 33%, the highest level since December 2024. Historically, when profit margins are at similar levels, it often prompts traders to take profits. Data shows that on September 22, Bitcoin holders realized profits of 25,700 BTC in a single day, setting a record for the highest daily profit since 2026; the altcoin market also showed signs of selling pressure. The seven-day cumulative number of altcoin transactions rose to 76,000, the highest level since October 17, 2025. Meanwhile, spot demand continues to shrink, and the growth of futures demand has significantly slowed.After Bitcoin previously reached an eight-month high of around $87,400, the upward momentum has shown signs of fatigue. Julio Moreno indicated that if a correction occurs, the 365-day moving average (around $80,000) will serve as the primary support, followed by the 200-day moving average (around $71,000) and the on-chain realized price for traders (around $67,000). Provided that the support levels hold, this correction is more likely to be a healthy consolidation in a young bull market rather than a trend reversal.

Analyst Darkfost pointed out that the MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) of short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin has risen to its highest level since November 2025. This increase was driven by the price breaking through the short-term holder cost benchmark of approximately $73,100, significantly enhancing market momentum between August and September.The current MVRV ratio is 1.15, indicating that short-term holders are, on average, in a 15% profit state, and their holding market value has exceeded the realized value. This level is worth close attention, as it may prompt short-term holders to take action, especially to realize profits.

According to official news, Gate has launched the world's first stock event contract, expanding the underlying coverage from crypto assets to traditional stocks, supporting bullish or bearish trades in short cycles such as 5 minutes and 15 minutes.As a flexible and efficient short-term trading tool, the Gate event contract has four core advantages: in terms of risk control, the product features zero leverage and low risk, with no forced liquidation or margin call mechanism, and the maximum loss is limited to the initial invested principal; in terms of rules and mechanisms, the criteria for price rise and fall, settlement standards, and transaction fees are all open and transparent throughout the process; in terms of trading flexibility, it supports closing positions at any time, allowing users to control the pace, lock in profits, or stop losses in a timely manner; in terms of participation threshold, it only requires an investment of 5 USDT to start, helping investors quickly implement short-term strategies.Currently, the official incentive program has been launched simultaneously. The second phase of the Gate event contract limited-time trading competition officially started on September 21 at 16:00 (UTC+8) and will continue until October 1 at 08:00 (UTC+8). The event includes rewards for first trades and consecutive trades for new users, daily trading volume tiered rebates for all participants, and a grand prize for cumulative trading volume leaderboard, with participating users having the chance to win a prize pool of up to 12,500 USDT.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that although the price of Bitcoin is rising, sustained buying pressure is still difficult to rebuild, and market signals are mixed. The cumulative spot demand over the past 30 days is -180,000 BTC, still negative, while futures demand is +54,000 BTC, still positive but slightly declining. The total average demand improved from -188,000 BTC to -126,000 BTC, narrowing the gap but still remaining in negative territory. Recently, there has been a divergence between price and total demand; Bitcoin's price has risen, but total demand has not turned positive, indicating that the increase is more driven by reduced selling pressure rather than strong buying.Looking at different sectors, the demand recovery is not uniform. For institutions, the geopolitical and macro environment is poor, but the Coinbase Premium, weighted by trading volume, has briefly turned positive, indicating that U.S. spot prices occasionally have a premium over other markets, and institutional selling pressure has significantly eased. ETFs have seen the biggest change in this round, with demand completely reversing compared to this summer, having recently net purchased about 70,000 BTC. The cumulative net inflow for 2026 is still about -17,000 BTC, but it is close to turning positive. In terms of trading platforms, the entire month of September has been characterized by net outflows, leaning towards accumulation rather than distribution. Bitcoin leaving trading platforms usually means that short-term selling pressure is lighter. Analyst Darkfost summarized that the current price increase is not due to enhanced buying pressure, but rather because investors have not continued to increase selling pressure at higher price levels, and the market structure remains fragile.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) established a five-year framework for tokenized stock trading days after the failure to advance the CLARITY Act. Investment bank TD Cowen stated that U.S. investors can conveniently access stocks, but issuers show limited interest in tokenization, and short-term adoption rates are expected to be low.TD Cowen pointed out that perpetual contracts remain a greater attraction for gaining exposure to crypto asset stocks, with trading volumes far exceeding those of tokenized spot products.

Renowned trader Killa updated his views on the recent rapid surge of Bitcoin, stating that the next target for Bitcoin could reach the $88,000 range; however, if it quickly falls below $80,000, it may test the low of $70,000. Based on volume analysis, this scenario is currently unlikely.Killa, a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

According to the Financial Times, as borrowing costs rise, Wall Street expects the United States to issue about $1 trillion in short-term debt.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan published a statement discussing U.S. cryptocurrency policy, stating that the U.S. originally had the opportunity to make the cryptocurrency industry safer, promote investment, and ensure it continues to lead the global financial markets for the next 50 years, but is currently sacrificing this opportunity for short-term political gains.

Data shows that the profitable chips held by short-term Bitcoin holders are valued at approximately 168.2 billion dollars, while the loss chips are valued at around 102.6 billion dollars. Overall, Bitcoin investors have maintained a net profit since August 19.The cost basis for investors holding for 1 to 3 months and 3 to 6 months is approximately 63,372 dollars and 73,190 dollars, respectively.

CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill stated that Bitcoin is currently facing an "unusual combination"—short-term bearish and medium-term bullish factors are present at the same time.In the short term, the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, higher than market expectations. Butterfill said, "The CPI data is marginally negative, increasing the probability of monetary policy tightening, which may limit Bitcoin's immediate upside potential." CME FedWatch data showed that market bets on the Federal Reserve's next rate hike reached as high as 85%.In the medium term, he pointed out that the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback program has failed to effectively lower long-term yields. If this situation continues, it may force authorities to implement larger intervention measures, raising concerns about currency depreciation, which would instead benefit Bitcoin and gold valuations. CoinShares believes that Bitcoin's short-term upside may be limited to below $80,000.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell after the inflation data was released, as the market increased bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September.

According to Gate market data, spot gold has plunged over 50 dollars in the short term, currently reported at 4,305 dollars per ounce.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that short-term holders of Bitcoin, holding for no more than 6 months, have transferred a total of 549,300 BTC to exchanges.During the same period, the price of Bitcoin rose from $64,000 to $78,000, an increase of about 21%; after reaching a local high of $81,800, it fell by about 4.1%, but still retained most of the gains.

According to GMGN data, the market capitalization of the Meme coin UPONLY on the BSC chain briefly surpassed 4 million USD, with an intraday increase of over 90 times, currently reported at approximately 3.7 million USD.According to community information, the concept of UPONLY originates from CZ's earlier proposal of "stocks that will never go down," which means using reserve funds for buybacks whenever the price drops by a certain amount, to create a price support mechanism.ChainCatcher reminds users that the price of Meme coins is highly volatile, largely relying on market sentiment and conceptual speculation, with no actual value support at present. Investors should pay attention to asset safety and participate cautiously.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit ratio of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator measures the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain its position in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by continuous profit realization from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit margin of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator is used to measure the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by short-term holders continuously realizing profits.