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spa

Analysis: On-chain data does not show that investors are massively selling off crypto assets to participate in the SpaceX IPO

According to CoinDesk, despite market speculation that some retail investors may sell Bitcoin to participate in SpaceX's record-breaking $75 billion IPO, stablecoin liquidity and on-chain data show that there are currently no signs of large-scale capital withdrawal from the crypto market.This SpaceX IPO is valued at approximately $1.8 trillion, allocating up to 30% of shares to retail investors through platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab, significantly higher than the traditional IPO's allocation of about 10% to individual investors. After the roadshow began, subscription demand has exceeded the issuance scale.Data shows that the outflow of USDT and USDC remains within the normal range since February this year, with no abnormal redemptions or supply contractions. In contrast, on June 6, Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded net outflows of approximately 66,470 BTC and 2.49 million ETH from exchanges, indicating that more investors are transferring assets to private wallets, showing signs of buying the dip rather than concentrated cashing out.However, on-chain data cannot reflect the trading behavior of users on platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, so whether crypto investors are selling assets to subscribe to SpaceX stock still requires waiting for relevant brokers to release subsequent data.Currently, the most significant capital outflows are coming from spot ETFs. Data shows that as of June 3, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total redemptions of approximately $4.4 billion; spot Ethereum ETFs have seen capital outflows for 17 consecutive trading days before returning to slight net inflows.According to the plan, SpaceX will complete pricing on June 11 and will be listed on Nasdaq under the stock code SPCX on June 12.

Analyst: To support a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, SpaceX's revenue needs to grow nearly 60 times in the next decade, an unprecedented increase

According to a report by Fortune, David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs, analyzed that to support a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, SpaceX needs to increase its annual revenue to about $1.1 trillion by 2035, which is nearly a 60-fold increase from $18.7 billion in 2025, equivalent to maintaining an average annual revenue growth rate of about 50% over the next decade.According to the prospectus previously submitted by SpaceX, the company's revenue in 2025 is projected to be $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. Trainer calculated based on a discounted cash flow model that if investors want to achieve an annualized return of about 10% over the next decade, SpaceX must achieve the aforementioned growth targets.Analysis indicates that if it reaches a revenue scale of $1.1 trillion, SpaceX's revenue would account for about 2.4% of the U.S. GDP in 2035, with an economic scale exceeding the entire U.S. utility industry and approaching three-quarters of the U.S. transportation industry.Trainer stated that although the artificial intelligence market has vast potential, many competitors, including Alphabet, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and OpenAI, are competing for market share, and SpaceX lacks historical precedent to achieve such a scale of growth. He believes that SpaceX could not only become the largest IPO in history but also the most expensive in terms of valuation.

ARK Invest: The Starlink business alone is enough to support SpaceX's nearly $2 trillion IPO valuation

According to CNBC, ARK Invest's Chief Futurist Brett Winton stated that SpaceX's upcoming IPO could become one of the most significant stock offerings in history, with its satellite internet business Starlink alone being sufficient to support a valuation of nearly $2 trillion.SpaceX has set the IPO price at $135 per share, planning to list on Nasdaq on June 12, with a pre-IPO valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion. The company plans to sell 555.6 million shares, raising about $75 billion, and underwriters may also purchase an additional 83.33 million shares at the IPO price, corresponding to about $11.2 billion. After the IPO is completed, Musk will hold over 82% of the voting control.Winton noted that SpaceX's growth prospects are not limited to launch services but are closely tied to the rapid expansion of AI. ARK estimates that by 2030, the combined enterprise value of companies developing and operating foundational AI models could reach $15 trillion to $20 trillion.Winton stated that investors typically focus on SpaceX's reusable rockets, but Starlink is the main driver of ARK's valuation logic. He mentioned that the current satellite constellation of Starlink can provide approximately 500 Tbps of bandwidth, generating annual revenue of about $13 billion. With the Starship rocket coming into operation, SpaceX can significantly reduce launch costs and deploy more satellites at a faster pace.
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