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spacex

Next week's macro outlook: US CPI alongside the decisions of two major central banks, SpaceX IPO is coming in strong

According to Jinshi reports, after the release of significantly better-than-expected non-farm payroll data on Friday, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year surged, causing spot gold to plummet sharply, nearly erasing all gains for the year, marking a fourth consecutive week of declines. Silver's overall trend mirrored that of gold but with slightly stronger volatility, closing down 9.85% for the week. The U.S. dollar index, buoyed by the unexpected non-farm data, rose significantly to just above the 100 mark. Following the non-farm data on Friday, U.S. tech stocks suffered heavy losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.35%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.65%, marking the largest single-day drop since October 2025; the Nasdaq dropped 4.18%, the largest single-day decline since April 2025.Goldman Sachs believes that the current market sentiment is clearly more greedy than fearful. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the market is highly sensitive to any negative news involving Iran. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;Tuesday 14:00, Germany April seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month, April seasonally adjusted trade balance;Tuesday 18:00, U.S. May NFIB Small Business Confidence Index;Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 23;Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May unadjusted CPI, May seasonally adjusted CPI/core CPI month-on-month;Wednesday 21:45, Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision;Thursday 20:15, European Central Bank announces interest rate decision;Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6, May PPI year-on-year/month-on-month;Friday 14:00, Germany May CPI month-on-month final value;Friday 14:45, France May CPI month-on-month final value;Friday 22:00, U.S. June 1-year inflation expectations preliminary value, June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.In the coming week, the market will face a series of important events, but the most anticipated remains the potential initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. According to current plans, this transaction may launch on Friday, and if it proceeds, it is expected to have a significant impact on overall market sentiment, although the specific direction is still difficult to determine.In addition to SpaceX, the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, earnings reports, and TSMC's May sales data may also become important factors influencing market volatility. Next week, U.S. stocks will enter a relatively calm phase of earnings season; although the overall number of reports is not large, heavyweight tech companies Oracle and Adobe will take the stage one after another, becoming the focus of market attention.

Analysis: On-chain data does not show that investors are massively selling off crypto assets to participate in the SpaceX IPO

According to CoinDesk, despite market speculation that some retail investors may sell Bitcoin to participate in SpaceX's record-breaking $75 billion IPO, stablecoin liquidity and on-chain data show that there are currently no signs of large-scale capital withdrawal from the crypto market.This SpaceX IPO is valued at approximately $1.8 trillion, allocating up to 30% of shares to retail investors through platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab, significantly higher than the traditional IPO's allocation of about 10% to individual investors. After the roadshow began, subscription demand has exceeded the issuance scale.Data shows that the outflow of USDT and USDC remains within the normal range since February this year, with no abnormal redemptions or supply contractions. In contrast, on June 6, Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded net outflows of approximately 66,470 BTC and 2.49 million ETH from exchanges, indicating that more investors are transferring assets to private wallets, showing signs of buying the dip rather than concentrated cashing out.However, on-chain data cannot reflect the trading behavior of users on platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, so whether crypto investors are selling assets to subscribe to SpaceX stock still requires waiting for relevant brokers to release subsequent data.Currently, the most significant capital outflows are coming from spot ETFs. Data shows that as of June 3, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total redemptions of approximately $4.4 billion; spot Ethereum ETFs have seen capital outflows for 17 consecutive trading days before returning to slight net inflows.According to the plan, SpaceX will complete pricing on June 11 and will be listed on Nasdaq under the stock code SPCX on June 12.

Analyst: To support a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, SpaceX's revenue needs to grow nearly 60 times in the next decade, an unprecedented increase

According to a report by Fortune, David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs, analyzed that to support a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, SpaceX needs to increase its annual revenue to about $1.1 trillion by 2035, which is nearly a 60-fold increase from $18.7 billion in 2025, equivalent to maintaining an average annual revenue growth rate of about 50% over the next decade.According to the prospectus previously submitted by SpaceX, the company's revenue in 2025 is projected to be $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. Trainer calculated based on a discounted cash flow model that if investors want to achieve an annualized return of about 10% over the next decade, SpaceX must achieve the aforementioned growth targets.Analysis indicates that if it reaches a revenue scale of $1.1 trillion, SpaceX's revenue would account for about 2.4% of the U.S. GDP in 2035, with an economic scale exceeding the entire U.S. utility industry and approaching three-quarters of the U.S. transportation industry.Trainer stated that although the artificial intelligence market has vast potential, many competitors, including Alphabet, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and OpenAI, are competing for market share, and SpaceX lacks historical precedent to achieve such a scale of growth. He believes that SpaceX could not only become the largest IPO in history but also the most expensive in terms of valuation.

ARK Invest: The Starlink business alone is enough to support SpaceX's nearly $2 trillion IPO valuation

According to CNBC, ARK Invest's Chief Futurist Brett Winton stated that SpaceX's upcoming IPO could become one of the most significant stock offerings in history, with its satellite internet business Starlink alone being sufficient to support a valuation of nearly $2 trillion.SpaceX has set the IPO price at $135 per share, planning to list on Nasdaq on June 12, with a pre-IPO valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion. The company plans to sell 555.6 million shares, raising about $75 billion, and underwriters may also purchase an additional 83.33 million shares at the IPO price, corresponding to about $11.2 billion. After the IPO is completed, Musk will hold over 82% of the voting control.Winton noted that SpaceX's growth prospects are not limited to launch services but are closely tied to the rapid expansion of AI. ARK estimates that by 2030, the combined enterprise value of companies developing and operating foundational AI models could reach $15 trillion to $20 trillion.Winton stated that investors typically focus on SpaceX's reusable rockets, but Starlink is the main driver of ARK's valuation logic. He mentioned that the current satellite constellation of Starlink can provide approximately 500 Tbps of bandwidth, generating annual revenue of about $13 billion. With the Starship rocket coming into operation, SpaceX can significantly reduce launch costs and deploy more satellites at a faster pace.

SpaceX plans to launch its IPO at $135 per share, raising $75 billion, which is expected to become the largest IPO in history

According to a report by Reuters, SpaceX plans to set the initial public offering (IPO) price at $135 per share, intending to issue approximately 555.6 million shares, raising up to $75 billion, corresponding to a company valuation of about $1.75 trillion. If successfully completed, it will become one of the largest IPO projects in the history of the global capital market.The report states that SpaceX's roadshow will kick off this Thursday. Unlike traditional IPOs that usually provide a price range first, SpaceX has clarified its target issue price before the roadshow, which is a relatively rare arrangement. The market expects this roadshow to become one of the most closely watched IPO promotional events in recent years.It is noteworthy that SpaceX has previously completed a merger with xAI, forming a comprehensive platform covering aerospace, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence businesses. The raised funds will primarily be used to expand AI computing power infrastructure and further develop the Starlink satellite network.According to reports, SpaceX is also considering allocating up to about 30% of the offering shares to retail investors to meet market demand and expand the shareholder base. At the same time, Elon Musk will be required to hold his shares for at least 366 days after the IPO to signal a long-term holding commitment to the market.
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