stages

According to Matthew Sigel, the head of digital asset research at investment management company VanEck, Bitcoin is currently in the early stages of a bull market, with strong market performance. VanEck has set a mid-term target for Bitcoin's market capitalization to reach half of gold's market capitalization (approximately $500,000) and believes that in the long term, if Bitcoin can capture a significant share of global energy trade, its price could reach $3 million by 2050.Sigel pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached a multi-year high, and the continuous inflow of institutional investors through channels such as spot ETFs has provided support for the market. Additionally, Bitcoin mining companies, due to their possession of scarce electricity resources in the AI economy, have seen a significant increase in the value of their mining equipment and energy contracts, providing new opportunities for investors. Regarding the quantum computing risk that the market is concerned about, Sigel stated that while this is a problem that needs to be addressed, the community has already begun to pay attention and actively respond, and this does not constitute a reason to sell Bitcoin.

According to CoinDesk, Cboe is exploring the launch of perpetual futures linked to the VIX index, which is still in the early stages, with no contract specifications yet and no filing documents submitted. This news comes from Bloomberg.The VIX index measures the expected volatility over the next 30 days as reflected by the pricing of S&P 500 options. As investors buy options to hedge against sharp market declines, the demand for options during downturns surges, thereby raising the index, which is why it is regarded as Wall Street's "fear gauge." Perpetual futures were first proposed by economist Robert Shiller in 1993 and were subsequently commercialized by the cryptocurrency industry.A mature derivatives ecosystem has already formed around the VIX, covering futures, options, and exchange-traded products tracking the index. However, futures come with expiration dates, and when contracts terminate, traders must roll over their positions or shift their bets to the next available contract. This rolling operation is costly and erodes returns, which was a major criticism faced by Bitcoin futures ETFs when they debuted at the end of 2021.In contrast, perpetual swaps never settle and instead anchor contract prices to the spot index through a funding rate mechanism, theoretically providing investors with the closest investment channel to the actual VIX spot price. Martin Lee, Head of Market Insights at DWF Labs, told CoinDesk that traders do not need to worry about expiration and value decay, as they can focus solely on assessing the direction of the underlying asset. He expects a strong trend of "perpetualization" to emerge in the coming months.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff stated that the application of artificial intelligence in enterprises is still in its early stages and requires more support to unlock the value of AI. Dario mentioned that currently, only about 5%-10% of the actual value of AI technology in the economy is being utilized.

Crypto KOL Ansem stated that he judged two weeks ago that the current market is still in a very early stage, and he maintains this view. Even if investors have not yet allocated relevant tokens, starting to pay attention to the market, formulating trading plans, and setting staggered buying prices now may still yield high returns.For tokens that have already entered the price discovery phase, Ansem believes that the current price is still close to the starting point of this breakout, and subsequent positions may not provide significantly better entry points than the current stage. Therefore, investors who have not yet taken positions should formulate plans in advance, rather than waiting to make decisions after market attention fully heats up.

Uniswap founder Hayden Adams stated that after nine years of DeFi practice, the path for AMM to become the core engine of the global financial market is becoming increasingly clear. He pointed out that tokenization is not only an infrastructure upgrade but also changes who provides liquidity and what is traded in the market. The SEC has approved Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange to trade tokenized stocks, and the DTCC also conducted live testing of tokenized trading in July.Adams believes that traditional market makers vertically integrate capital, strategy, execution, settlement, and distribution, which is costly; blockchain disassembles these components, making capital a scarce input. Liquidity providers who already hold relevant assets or are the issuers themselves can bear inventory exposure at zero cost, thereby weakening professional market makers with lower capital costs. An on-chain "related asset pair" model has naturally formed (such as the Ethereum ecosystem pairing with ETH and stablecoins), as correlation reduces inventory risk and deepens liquidity.He cited that there are already 10 tokenized stocks on the Robinhood Chain forming a Uniswap pool with SPY, which has traded approximately $33 million in 12 days, with some trades occurring directly between stocks without touching the dollar. Adams also stated that although Uniswap's cumulative trading volume has reached about $4.6 trillion, AMM is still in its early stages, and there is significant room for improvement in subsequent design and ecosystem.

According to Jinshi reports, Musk stated that this year they will attempt to recover the first and second stages of Starship V3, possibly achieving this in the next flight.

According to BBX data, the two largest publicly listed reserve companies for Ethereum issued a counter-cyclical buy signal yesterday, with the core dynamics as follows:SharpLink, Inc. (NASDAQ: $SBET) (one of the largest publicly listed reserve companies for Ethereum, founded by CEO Joe Lubin, formerly known as SharpLink Gaming, transitioning to Ethereum Treasury in May 2025) released an official press release on June 30: the company purchased an additional 10,000 ETH at an average price of $1,611 per coin, raising its total holdings to 886,725 ETH; during the same period, it repurchased 2,132,773 shares of common stock (average price $4.69), bringing the total repurchased since the buyback program started in August 2025 to 4,071,223 shares. This ETH purchase was funded by the company's previously completed $75 million targeted issuance (registered direct offering). CEO Joseph Chalom stated that this fundraising "provides capital support for proactive ETH treasury management strategies." The company's average purchase cost for 886,725 ETH is approximately $3,609 per coin, and with the current price around $1,611, the paper loss is about $1.77 billion; however, the company earned approximately 18,800 ETH in staking rewards in Q1 (equivalent to about $30 million per quarter at current prices), with revenue of $12.1 million during the same period (a 16-fold increase compared to $742,000 in the same period last year). The company has officially been included in the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indices, which will trigger passive buying from active and passive funds tracking these two indices, potentially broadening the institutional shareholder base and increasing access to capital markets.Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: $BMNR), as of June 26, according to the latest data cited by CoinDesk, the company's ETH holdings have risen to approximately 5.67 million coins (an increase of about 280,000 coins compared to the 5.39 million disclosed in the SEC 8-K on May 26), with a net increase of about 52,203 coins in the previous week (equivalent to about $82 million); the company's chairman Tom Lee stated on June 26: "We are maintaining a steady accumulation pace throughout 2026, and we believe we are in the early stages of a Crypto Spring." At the current price of about $1,610, the market value of 5.67 million ETH is approximately $9.13 billion; during the same period, Bitmine jointly funded the Ethlabs nonprofit research organization with SharpLink and Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin (founded by former Ethereum Foundation researchers, focusing on Ethereum infrastructure and institutional research), further strengthening the institutional narrative support for the ETH ecosystem through the endorsement of the three organizations.

According to Crypto Briefing, the Central Bank of Russia has rejected the proposal to immediately expand access to cryptocurrencies, not allowing non-qualified investors to trade cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT. Vice President Vladimir Chistyukhin stated that after the new regulations come into effect, only these three mainstream digital currencies will be allowed for trading.Chistyukhin pointed out that the high volatility of cryptocurrencies, market risks, and the possibility that stablecoins may be restricted or frozen are reasons for maintaining strict limits. These rules are part of Russia's digital currency legislation, which is expected to come into effect next month after being overwhelmingly passed in the first reading by the State Duma in April. Regulators also intend to maintain the proposed investment cap of 300,000 rubles.As part of the proposed rules, both qualified and non-qualified investors must pass a mandatory knowledge test before purchasing any digital assets. From 2027, unauthorized cryptocurrency lending will be prohibited. The bill still needs to go through a second reading, a third reading, approval from the Federation Council, and presidential signing to become law.

Mike McGlone, Bloomberg's senior commodity strategist, tweeted that the crypto bear market may be in its early stages and stated that if β (market risk) declines, Bitcoin could fall back to $10,000.He disclosed that since the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) began trading in January 2024, its total return has been roughly on par with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), but the former's volatility is about four times that of the latter, with a 200-day correlation close to 0.5. In the absence of higher returns, high volatility and correlation are generally unfavorable for asset allocation. He also pointed out that since the birth of Bitcoin in 2009, the number of crypto assets has reached millions, most of which lack substantial support but still have valuations in the billions of dollars.

Three sources revealed that Anthropic is exploring the possibility of designing its own chips. This plan is still in the early stages, and Anthropic may ultimately decide to only procure AI chips instead of designing them in-house. Another source indicated that Anthropic has not yet determined a specific design plan and has not yet assembled a dedicated team for the project.

According to The Block, Amy Oldenburg, the head of digital asset strategy at Morgan Stanley, stated at the Washington Blockchain Summit that the adoption of crypto ETFs is still in a very early stage, with about 80% of the demand for crypto ETFs on the platform coming from self-directed investors rather than advisor-managed accounts.Oldenburg described Morgan Stanley's advancement of crypto products as "an orderly step-by-step journey," emphasizing that the wealth management team still has a lot of work to do in terms of education and portfolio construction to help financial advisors incorporate digital assets into asset allocation models. Morgan Stanley has opened brokerage account purchase permissions for Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and applied to list Bitcoin and Solana spot ETFs in January of this year.At the institutional allocation level, Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Committee recommends that the allocation of crypto assets in model portfolios should not exceed 4%, while Bank of America also supports an allocation range of 1% to 4%, and BlackRock and Fidelity have provided similar guidance. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out that some professional investors are currently considering increasing their allocation to about 5%.

CryptoQuant released a report indicating that on-chain data signals show the current market downturn is deepening, performing worse than the early stages of the 2022 bear market, with BTC prices potentially dropping towards $60,000.The next major support zone for BTC is between $60,000 and $70,000, and there is widespread structural weakness in the crypto market. Institutional demand has sharply reversed, with U.S. spot BTC exchange-traded funds shifting from net buying last year to net selling, while retail participation remains sluggish, with Coinbase premiums consistently negative since mid-October. Liquidity conditions are also tightening.Additionally, long-term demand growth has significantly collapsed, with annual spot demand for BTC dropping from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC over the past four months, a decline of 93%.

CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu stated that the "Supply in Loss (%)" of Bitcoin has begun to rise again. Historically, this shift marks the early stages of a bear market: at this point, losses begin to spread, no longer limited to short-term holders, but gradually affecting long-term participants.In previous cycles (2014, 2018, 2022), this indicator started to rise before the market hit bottom, while prices continued to weaken. A true bottom will only form after the "Supply in Loss (%)" significantly expands. Currently, the "Supply in Loss (%)" is still far below historical capitulation levels, but the directional change itself is significant. This suggests that the market may be transitioning to a bear market structure rather than experiencing a temporary pullback within a bull market trend.