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分析:BTC 長期持有者淨持倉再創歷史新高,熊市底部或已不遠

2026-06-19 09:57:00

ChainCatcher 消息,鏈上分析師 Murphy 發文表示,長期持有者(LTH)淨持倉再創歷史新高。截至 6 月 17 日,LTH 淨持倉量達到 1,496 萬枚 BTC,較 3 月 27 日形成的高點多出 2 萬枚。這也是 BTC 進入熊市以來,LTH 淨持倉第二次創出新高。越來越多 BTC 已不願再參與短期博弈和換手,占總流通量 75% 的籌碼已由 LTH 持有。

其認為,歷史上每輪熊市底部通常會出現在 LTH 淨持倉開始回升之後,即先有"持倉回升",再有"底部形成"。上輪周期中,LTH 淨持倉量曾經歷 3 次創新高,並對應 3 次強勁派發,分別發生在美聯儲釋放加息預期、Luna 暴雷和 FTX 倒閉時期。本輪周期目前為第二次創新高。其認為,關鍵不在於第幾次創新高,而在於此前 LTH 派發規模是否形成明顯逐級下降趨勢。若本次派發規模低於上一次,則說明賣壓正逐漸枯竭,真正熊市底部或已產生,或已不遠。

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