HashWhale BTC Mining Weekly | BTC Price Hits New High in the Phase, Miner Earnings Gradually Recover (4.26-5.02)

Author: Monkey | Editor: Monkey

1. Bitcoin Market

From April 26 to May 2, 2025, the specific movements of Bitcoin are as follows:

April 26: In the previous trading day, the price rose from $93,500 to $95,586, followed by a high-level consolidation around $95,000, with the intraday volatility gradually narrowing, indicating signs of weakening momentum. The market then experienced a pullback, with prices falling to $94,583, $94,339, and $94,001, eventually stabilizing around $94,320.

April 27: After briefly rising to an intraday high of $95,172, the price encountered resistance and failed to stabilize, subsequently oscillating down to $93,815. The market then entered a tug-of-war phase, displaying a narrow fluctuation pattern, with prices oscillating between $94,261, $93,762, $94,140, and $93,823, lacking clear directional guidance.

April 28: Bulls made a short-term effort, pushing the price up to $94,395, maintaining that level for a while. However, the market then faced significant selling pressure, breaking below the key support level of $93,500, hitting a low of $92,933. A rapid rebound followed, with prices rising to $94,872 and the intraday high of $95,512. In the closing phase, bullish momentum weakened, and the price retraced to the $94,500 area, subsequently dipping further to $93,603.

April 29: After consolidating around $93,621, Bitcoin's price began to rebound, rising to $94,892, and after a brief pullback, it surged again to $95,328. The overall trend during the day was a fluctuating upward movement, with prices rebounding after a dip to $94,258, sequentially rising to $95,068, $95,235, and $95,466, maintaining fluctuations near $95,000.

April 30: On this day, Bitcoin's price began to pull back from the intraday high of $95,444, oscillating down to $93,937 before stabilizing and gradually climbing to $95,078. After a brief pullback to $94,622, the price rose again to $95,158. However, the market then suddenly changed, experiencing a rapid drop, with prices plunging to $93,376, forming a cliff-like decline. Subsequently, market sentiment gradually recovered, with prices returning to the upward channel, rising to around $94,000, and entering a consolidation phase within that range.

May 1: Bitcoin briefly dipped to $93,803 in the morning but quickly stabilized and initiated a rebound. The price exhibited a fluctuating upward pattern, breaking through the key short-term resistance levels of $95,000, $96,000, and $97,000, reaching $94,943 and $96,315, reflecting a gradual warming of bullish sentiment. Ultimately, driven by bullish momentum, the intraday high was recorded at $97,436, marking a new weekly high, indicating enhanced market buying power.

May 2: After maintaining consolidation above $97,000 for a while, Bitcoin faced selling pressure from above, leading to a price pullback. During this period, there was intense competition between bulls and bears, with prices briefly retracing to around $96,245 for support, then rising again to $97,149, but failing to sustain the breakout momentum, subsequently facing pressure and falling back. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $96,825, overall in a high-level consolidation phase, with short-term attention still needed on the gains and losses around the $97,000 level and the sustainability of bullish momentum.

Summary

This week, Bitcoin maintained an overall upward trend, exhibiting a strong oscillation pattern. During this period, it repeatedly tested the key resistance zones of $95,500 and $97,000, successfully breaking through and reaching a high of $97,436, refreshing the phase high. The overall trend displayed a wide oscillation upward, with market volatility significantly increasing and capital sentiment becoming more active.

The weekly low retraced to $92,933, testing the effectiveness of the lower support range. The price quickly rebounded, confirming that $93,500 and $94,000 formed a solid short-term support zone, becoming the core area for bullish defense. On May 1, Bitcoin broke through the $97,000 mark, reaching the peak of this round of rebound, but there remains strong resistance above $97,500, forming the main resistance level in the short term.

In terms of market sentiment, risk appetite has significantly rebounded, overall liquidity has improved, capital activity has increased, and trading volume has moderately expanded, indicating a growing willingness for off-market capital to enter. If the macro environment remains stable and prices can effectively stabilize above $97,000, Bitcoin is expected to open up further upward space, targeting $98,500 and the psychological round number of $100,000.

Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/04/26-2025/05/02)

2. Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

Capital Flow

1. Centralized exchanges' BTC supply hits a 7-year low

As of April 26, the total supply of Bitcoin in CEX dropped to 2.488 million BTC, the lowest level since October 2018. Although there was a brief replenishment of 40,000 BTC over the weekend (rising to 2.492 million BTC), the overall supply remains at a historical low, indicating that market participants are transferring BTC to cold wallets or holding it for the long term, showing long-term bullish signals.

2. Whale ratio declines, retail activity increases

According to CryptoQuant data, the whale ratio on exchanges has decreased from 0.512 on April 17 to 0.36 on April 27, indicating a significant reduction in the proportion of large transfers (>100 BTC) in exchange transactions.

At the same time, on-chain data shows an increase in the number of active UTXOs and small addresses (<1 BTC), indicating that retail trading is becoming more frequent and is gradually dominating short-term market fluctuations.

3. Bitcoin ETF records largest single-week net inflow, institutions drive rebound

On April 26, as Bitcoin's price rebounded to $95,800, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experienced its largest single-week net inflow since Trump's inauguration. According to data from Santiment and Trader T, the total net inflow last week reached $3.033 billion, with a trading volume of $19 billion. The rapid pace of this capital inflow may be related to the recovery of basis trading, driving the total net inflow in April to about $2.26 billion, reversing the previous trend of capital outflow.

ETF inflow details for the week:

April 28: +$591 million
April 29: +$172 million
April 30: -$56.3 million (slight outflow)
May 1: +$71 million

Overall, despite a slight net outflow on April 30, the overall capital trend still points to net inflows, reflecting the market's relatively optimistic expectations for Bitcoin's mid-term trend. If this trend continues, it may continue to provide downward support and mid-term upward momentum for Bitcoin's price.

Technical Indicator Analysis

1. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)

According to Investing.com data, as of May 2, 2025, Bitcoin's 14-day RSI is 63.36. This value is in the bullish zone (50--70) and has not yet entered the overbought area (>70), but it shows that bullish momentum is dominant in the market.

The current RSI is in the mid-high range, indicating that buying momentum still dominates, but it also suggests that there are signs of upward fatigue in prices. If the RSI continues to approach or even break through 70, attention should be paid to potential short-term pullback risks.

2. Moving Averages (MA): Clear trend structure, bullish pattern remains intact

50-day moving average (MA50): $86,467.47
200-day moving average (MA200): $81,766.41

Current price (market price): approximately $96,800 (above both moving averages)

Technical structure: Golden Cross pattern

The current MA50 has steadily crossed above the MA200, forming a typical "Golden Cross" pattern, which is usually seen as a confirmation of a medium to long-term bullish signal. This structure enhances market expectations for continued upward movement.

The current price is significantly above the MA50 and MA200, confirming the continuation of the medium to long-term upward trend. The arrangement of MAs shows a typical bullish structure (short-term > mid-term > long-term), indicating that the market has not yet experienced structural damage. However, as prices have significantly deviated from the moving averages in the short term, there is a certain pressure for mean reversion, and the market may face technical pullbacks or consolidation.

50-day SMA, 200-day SMA data image

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support levels: The main support range for Bitcoin currently lies between $93,500 and $94,000, which is an important pullback defense line in the short term. If prices fall back to this area, it is expected to attract some bullish buying, potentially forming a technical rebound.
Resistance levels: The initial resistance levels above are concentrated around $97,000 and $97,500. If prices can effectively break through and stabilize above $97,500, it is expected to open up further upward space, testing the psychological round number of $100,000.

Market Sentiment Analysis

1. Market optimism rebounds, capital liquidity enhances

This week, market optimism has significantly rebounded, with multiple on-chain and sentiment indicators improving in sync, reflecting a gradual restoration of investor confidence:

The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator rose to 60 on April 28, marking a three-week high; data from CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno indicates that the liquidity of stablecoins and Bitcoin on exchanges is rising simultaneously, suggesting that capital is flowing back into risk assets.

2. Key sentiment indicators (Fear & Greed Index)

According to CoinMarketCap data, as of May 2, the Fear & Greed Index stands at 55, in the "neutral" zone. The index has shown a stable trend this week: April 26: 53 (neutral); April 27: 53 (neutral); April 28: 51 (neutral); April 29: 53 (neutral); April 30: 52 (neutral); May 1: 51 (neutral).

The index fluctuated between 51 and 55, reflecting stable market sentiment, with investors neither overly fearful nor exhibiting irrational greed; the small fluctuations in the index indicate that investors are taking a wait-and-see approach amid recent price oscillations, with confidence gradually recovering but not becoming significantly aggressive; the sentiment has not entered the greed zone, suggesting that there is still upward space in the market and it has not overheated.

Fear & Greed Index data image

Macroeconomic Background

1. Renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe, major adjustments to global tax policies may be on the horizon

The European Union is considering amending its 15% minimum corporate tax law to ease tensions with the potential new U.S. government. This law, which took effect in 2023, aims to align with the G20 framework for a global unified tax system, but U.S. officials are concerned that their domestic companies may be restricted by EU rules. If implemented, this move could signal a regression in the coordination of multinational tax policies, further affecting cross-border capital flows and corporate hedging behaviors.

2. Trump's policy expectations reshape geopolitical and trade patterns

Trump has recently made several statements, reiterating that he will not easily lift tariffs on China and emphasizing the need for "substantial concessions" from China; he is also actively involved in mediating the Russia-Ukraine situation, promoting a rare earth agreement for Ukraine, which could benefit the energy and military supply chains if peace is achieved. Additionally, he plans to alleviate pressure from auto tariffs and strengthen domestic manufacturing, which may trigger a global supply chain readjustment.

3. Cryptocurrency policies are increasingly politicized, regulatory outlook is full of uncertainty

As connections between the Trump family and the cryptocurrency industry gradually come to light (such as the WLFI project team meeting with Zhao Changpeng in Abu Dhabi), the independence of the U.S. SEC's regulation is widely questioned. Forbes reports that if the SEC shows favoritism towards politically related projects, it may trigger systemic concerns about the credibility of digital asset regulation.

If the new SEC chairman Paul Atkins fails to find a balance between political pressure and industry reform, it could weaken the U.S.'s leading position in global cryptocurrency policy-making.

Moreover, the recent large-scale transfer of $2.4 billion in on-chain funds due to a dinner event related to Trump's official MEME coin project also demonstrates the significant impact of the "politics + crypto" narrative on market sentiment.

4. Domestic inflation and monetary policy in the U.S. become focal points again

Trump has publicly criticized the Federal Reserve again, claiming "he is more insightful than the Fed chairman," and hinted that he will have more influence over monetary policy. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate has just voted down a proposal to limit Trump's tariff authority, indicating that future checks and balances between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury may be further weakened.

If Trump regains power in the future, his policy combination of deregulation, loose fiscal policy, and high tariffs may once again catalyze market volatility in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies that increasingly exhibit safe-haven properties like Bitcoin.

3. Hash Rate Changes

From April 26 to May 2, 2025, the Bitcoin network hash rate exhibited fluctuations, as detailed below:

On April 26, the hash rate quickly rose from 877.58 EH/s to 944.31 EH/s, briefly maintained before entering a downward phase, subsequently falling to 883.05 EH/s, 813.18 EH/s, and finally retreating to 777.38 EH/s. On April 27, the downward trend continued, with the hash rate further touching a low of 693.46 EH/s, before recovering and returning to 877.72 EH/s. On April 28, the hash rate oscillated around 850 EH/s, first pulling back to 806.74 EH/s before rebounding to 881.14 EH/s, and then continuing to rise to 884.67 EH/s. On April 29, the hash rate oscillated upward, peaking at 962.47 EH/s, and then fluctuating in the high range of 900–950 EH/s, reaching a high of 954.34 EH/s again in the evening. On April 30, the Bitcoin network hash rate retreated from its high, dropping to a low of 796.17 EH/s, then briefly rising to 840.03 EH/s, before dipping again to 782.83 EH/s, showing an overall oscillating trend. In the closing phase of the day, the hash rate gradually rose and ultimately climbed to 833.00 EH/s, indicating a slight recovery in miners' participation in the network. On May 1, the hash rate continued its upward trend, further rising to 910.27 EH/s. It maintained around 900 EH/s for a while, then retreated to 794.24 EH/s, before rising again to 846.00 EH/s. On May 2, the hash rate continued to rise, reaching 872.20 EH/s.

In summary, this week, the Bitcoin network hash rate exhibited an overall upward oscillation trend. Despite significant short-term pullbacks, the duration of high-level operation has increased, indicating that miners have a strong capacity for sustained hash rate investment at the current price range. If the hash rate remains high, it is expected to impact future block production rates and difficulty adjustments.

Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data

4. Mining Revenue

According to YCharts data, the daily total revenue of Bitcoin miners (including block rewards and transaction fees) for this week is as follows:
April 26: $39.72 million;
April 27: $40.23 million;
April 28: $42.21 million;
April 29: $43.90 million;
April 30: $39.64 million.

From the trend, the average daily revenue of miners this week remained stable between $39 million and $44 million.

From the perspective of unit hash rate revenue, the current Bitcoin "hash price" is approximately $50.14 per PH/s, having risen to a relative high within the past month. This reflects that, under the combined effects of Bitcoin price rebound and slowing hash rate growth, the marginal revenue per unit hash rate for miners has improved.

According to The Block's data, the total revenue of Bitcoin miners in April 2025 was approximately $1.15 billion, slightly down from $1.22 billion in March and $1.24 billion in February. The decline was mainly due to Bitcoin's prolonged low price before April 20, leading to insufficient trading activity and putting pressure on miners' revenue for most of the time. It was not until the end of the month that prices rebounded above $90,000, allowing revenue to recover. If Bitcoin's market continues its upward trend and successfully breaks out in volume in May, miners' monthly earnings are expected to see a phase rebound, thereby improving the current operating environment.

Bitcoin Miners Daily Revenue Data

5. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency

According to CloverPool data, as of May 2, 2025, the total network hash rate for Bitcoin is 849.98 EH/s, and the current network mining difficulty is 123.23 T. The next difficulty adjustment is expected to take place on May 4, with an anticipated decrease of 5.31%, bringing the difficulty down to 116.69 T. This trend indicates that, against the backdrop of Bitcoin's short-term stabilization, some less energy-efficient and higher operational cost mining machines are gradually exiting the market, leading to a slowdown or even slight retraction in overall network hash rate growth. The difficulty reduction will alleviate some of the mining pressure on remaining miners, thereby improving miners' profitability in the short term.

According to MacroMicro's latest model calculations, as of April 30, 2025, Bitcoin's unit production cost is approximately $90,809.30, while the spot price on that day was $94,207.31, resulting in a mining cost-to-price ratio of 0.96. This ratio is slightly below 1, indicating that most miners are still in a slightly profitable range, and the overall industry profit is in a stage of moderate recovery. If Bitcoin's price continues to rise, miners' profit margins will expand accordingly, and the industry's profitability is expected to continue improving, attracting more efficient hash power into the market, thereby driving hash rate and difficulty back up.

In summary, the slowdown in overall network hash rate growth and the expected adjustment in mining difficulty together constitute the current operational logic of Bitcoin mining: short-term profit recovery is beginning to show, but whether it can maintain a healthy state in the long term still depends on Bitcoin's price trend and the update process of high-efficiency equipment.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

6. Policy and Regulatory News

Swiss Central Bank President again rejects calls to increase Bitcoin holdings, stating it "does not meet the high standards of reserve currency"

On April 26, Swiss Central Bank President Martin Schlegel stated, "The market liquidity of cryptocurrencies during crises will be questioned, and their high volatility is also a significant risk for long-term value preservation. In short, it can be said that cryptocurrencies currently do not meet our high requirements for reserve currencies." He made this statement in response to a proposal by the advocacy group Bitcoin Initiative to increase Bitcoin holdings. The organization researched that if 1% had been invested in Bitcoin in 2015, the overall return for the Swiss Central Bank would have nearly doubled, with only a slight increase in volatility.

El Salvador's Bitcoin strategy continues to advance, bypassing IMF restrictions

To secure a $1.4 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the El Salvador government previously promised that the finance department would no longer increase Bitcoin holdings and announced the cancellation of Bitcoin as a mandatory payment and tax method starting May 1. However, on April 28, the El Salvador Bitcoin office posted on X platform, stating that it would "continue to add one Bitcoin to the strategic reserve every day." As of April 30, the office had added 32 Bitcoins in April, bringing the total holdings to over 6,160 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $584 million. Analysts pointed out that El Salvador is technically bypassing the IMF's restrictions on the "finance department" through this office, continuing to advance President Bukele's national Bitcoin strategy.

Arizona House of Representatives passes Bitcoin reserve bill, promoting the establishment of cryptocurrency reserves

On April 29, the Arizona House of Representatives passed two bills that may allow the state to establish reserves using Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. In the third reading of Senate Bill 1025 (SB1025) on April 28, 31 representatives voted in favor, while 25 opposed. Another similar bill, SB1373, passed with 37 votes in favor and 19 against. These approvals bring these bills closer to being signed into law than any similar initiatives in other U.S. states. Meanwhile, President Trump signed an executive order in March proposing the establishment of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and "digital asset reserve."

Related image

Nigerian government passes law recognizing Bitcoin as a security

On May 1, Nigerian President Tinubu signed the Investment and Securities Act 2025, officially classifying Bitcoin and other digital assets as securities. This marks the first official recognition of Bitcoin's legal status by Nigerian regulators.

The new law will grant the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulatory authority over virtual asset service providers (VASPs), digital asset operators (DAOPs), and digital asset exchanges (DAEs). The law also imposes strict penalties for Ponzi schemes, with violators facing fines of at least 20 million Naira (approximately $12,430) and up to 10 years in prison.

7. Mining News

U.S. Secretary of Commerce: The U.S. will vigorously promote domestic Bitcoin mining development

On April 29, according to BitcoinMagazine, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick stated that the U.S. will "fully promote the development of the Bitcoin mining industry domestically."

Related image

Cambridge University study: Bitcoin mining is shifting to sustainable energy

On April 29, a new research report from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) showed that the sustainable energy usage rate in the Bitcoin mining industry has risen to 52.4%, significantly up from 37.6% in 2022. The report noted that natural gas (38.2%) has replaced coal (8.9%) as the largest single energy source, with coal usage dropping sharply from 36.6% in 2022. Data also indicates that North America dominates global mining activities, with the U.S. accounting for 75.4% and Canada for 7.1%. The study is based on a survey of 49 mining companies across 23 countries, covering 48% of global mining activity, estimating Bitcoin's annual electricity consumption at 138 terawatt-hours, about 0.5% of global electricity consumption.

8. Bitcoin News

Global corporate and national Bitcoin holdings (weekly statistics)

1. El Salvador continues to accumulate Bitcoin, with holdings reaching 6,159
   According to a statement from the El Salvador Bitcoin office on April 27, the country's national strategic reserve added 1 Bitcoin, bringing total holdings to 6,159.18 Bitcoins, continuing the "one Bitcoin per day" accumulation plan.

2. Strategy adds 15,355 Bitcoins in a week, total holdings exceed 550,000
   According to news on April 28, Strategy purchased 15,355 BTC for approximately $1.42 billion between April 21 and 27, with an average price of about $92,737. As of April 28, total holdings reached 553,555 BTC, with a total investment of about $37.9 billion.

3. Japanese brand ANAP purchases an additional 35 Bitcoins, total holdings exceed 50
   On April 30, Japanese fashion brand ANAP announced the purchase of an additional 35 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 51.6579 Bitcoins, continuing its Bitcoin asset allocation strategy.

4. Australia's Monochrome Bitcoin ETF holdings rise to 345 Bitcoins
   As of April 29, Monochrome's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) held 345 BTC, valued at approximately $50.96 million, indicating continued investor optimism towards Bitcoin assets.

5. BlackRock adds over 25,000 Bitcoins in a week, total holdings exceed 600,000
   According to tracking data from Lookonchain, BlackRock's IBIT ETF added 25,430 BTC in the past 7 days, valued at approximately $2.37 billion. As of April 30, total holdings reached 601,209 BTC, with a total market value of about $56.11 billion.

CryptoQuant analyst: Demand indicators show dormant funds are flowing back into Bitcoin

On April 26, CryptoQuant analyst ITTech stated that apparent demand indicators show a significant rebound in Bitcoin buying interest. The strong rebound from extreme negative values (below -200,000 Bitcoins) indicates that previously dormant funds are flowing back in.

Related image

Bitcoin core developer proposes abolishing "Satoshi" unit and removing decimal points, sparking community controversy

On April 27, while the Bitcoin community was busy optimizing user experience, launching custody solutions, lobbying for regulation, and courting institutions, core developer and Synonym CEO John Carvalho proposed a simpler solution: abolishing the "Satoshi" unit and removing decimal points to lower the cognitive barrier for newcomers. In a BIP proposal in December 2024, he advocated defining 1 Bitcoin's 100 million "Satoshis" directly as "Bitcoin," meaning that a transaction currently displayed as 0.00010000 BTC would show as 10,000 BTC in the new system, fundamentally reshaping the measurement of "Bitcoin millionaires."

This move quickly sparked controversy. Opponents mocked it with the "pizza argument": if each slice of pizza is called a "whole," one would need to order eight at once to satisfy demand, ridiculing the absurdity brought by unit inflation. More community members worry that if the total supply expands from 21 million to 21 quintillion, it would undermine the core narrative of Bitcoin's scarcity. However, Carvalho's proposal may be quietly gaining traction. On April 25, he posted on X platform, stating, "Though still a minority, more and more people are beginning to accept the idea of calling the smallest unit of Bitcoin 'Bitcoin' and removing the decimal point."

CryptoQuant analyst: Demand indicators show dormant funds are flowing back into Bitcoin

On April 27, CryptoQuant analyst ITTech stated that apparent demand indicators show a significant rebound in Bitcoin buying interest. The strong rebound from extreme negative values (below -200,000 Bitcoins) indicates that previously dormant funds are flowing back in.

10x Research: Bitcoin may break $100,000 after short-term consolidation

On April 28, 10x Research released an analysis report stating that although the resistance levels of $94,000-$95,000 will still limit Bitcoin's upward momentum in the short term, two reversal indicators have turned bearish, and the stochastic indicator has risen to 95%, suggesting short-term downside risks. However, analysts believe this only represents a short-term consolidation phase before breaking through $100,000.

Standard Chartered: Bitcoin expected to break $120,000 in Q2

On April 28, according to The Block, Standard Chartered's global head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, stated in a recent report that Bitcoin is expected to reach a new historical high of about $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025, maintaining its target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025. Kendrick believes now is the time to buy Bitcoin, with multiple indicators supporting price increases, including U.S. investors seeking non-U.S. assets, continued accumulation by "whale" investors, and the shift of ETF funds from gold to Bitcoin as a safe haven. He emphasized that Bitcoin, due to its decentralized nature, is more effective than gold in hedging risks in the current financial system.

Presto research director: Bitcoin expected to rise to $210,000 by the end of 2025

On April 28, according to Cointelegraph, Presto's research director Peter Chung reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin will rise to $210,000 by the end of 2025.

Chung stated that the expansion of global liquidity is the main driving force behind his long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin. He also acknowledged that this year's market environment has not been as ideal as expected, particularly due to challenges in the macroeconomic situation and market reactions.

However, he described the recent market pullback as a healthy adjustment, believing it lays a more solid foundation for Bitcoin's advancement as a mainstream financial asset. He stated: "Looking back, I believe this is actually a healthy correction that paves the way for Bitcoin to be repriced further as a mainstream asset."

Bernstein: With the wave of corporate accumulation and ETF fund inflows, Bitcoin price is expected to reach new highs

On April 29, news reported that this year's Bitcoin price narrative has fluctuated between "gold" and "Nasdaq" correlation, but Bernstein analysts believe that the short-term correlation is misleading. The exhaustion of retail selling, the wave of corporate accumulation, and ETF fund inflows are the key indicators that may drive "supply tightening" to achieve new price highs. Last week, Twenty One Capital announced an initial accumulation of 42,000 BTC (approximately $4 billion), joining the ranks of companies like Strategy. Currently, about 80 companies collectively hold 700,000 BTC, accounting for 3.4% of the total supply. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $3 billion last week, a five-month high, with total holdings accounting for 5.5% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. The institutional share has risen from 20% in September last year to 33%, with 48% held by investment advisors, reflecting asset allocation demand. Combined with corporate holdings, institutional capital now controls 9% of BTC supply. If the U.S. government implements a strategic reserve, it may trigger sovereign nations to compete in accumulating Bitcoin. The proportion of BTC balances on exchanges has decreased from 16% at the end of 2023 to 13%, but some assets have only shifted to ETF custodians.

Bernstein analysts estimate that Bitcoin will reach approximately $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033, with intermittent bear markets occurring in between.

Related image

Trump's Crypto Council Executive Director: Countries are engaged in a "space race" style Bitcoin accumulation, and the U.S. views Bitcoin as digital gold

On April 30, Trump's Crypto Council Executive Director Bo Hines stated that countries are engaged in a competition for Bitcoin accumulation similar to a "space race." "We view Bitcoin as digital gold."

CZ: Multiple countries consulting on establishing cryptocurrency reserves, Bitcoin ETF leads the current cycle

On April 30, according to Eric Balchunas's tweet, Zhao Changpeng (CZ) recently stated that he is consulting for several countries outside of Europe on how to establish cryptocurrency reserves like the U.S. He noted that Europe is currently not included in this discussion. CZ explained his reasons for investing in the X platform, emphasizing that "free currency" needs to be based on "freedom of speech." Regarding the current market, he believes that ETFs are the main driving force of this cycle, with Bitcoin taking the lead. Although Ethereum's performance is not as prominent as Bitcoin's, he expects Bitcoin's success to eventually drive other cryptocurrencies and emphasizes that "we are still in the early stages."