Author: Monkey | Editor: Monkey

1. Bitcoin Market

From July 19 to July 25, 2025, the specific trends of Bitcoin are as follows:

July 19: Bitcoin's price opened with a volatile downward trend in the morning, fluctuating down from $117,930 to $117,073 before rebounding, rising to $117,912 and starting a volatile ascent. After reaching $118,426, it weakened, briefly falling to $117,721 in the evening before stabilizing again, closing at $118,113, with a relatively balanced force between buyers and sellers.

July 20: Bitcoin showed a narrow range of strong volatility overall. After opening, it dipped slightly to an intraday low of $117,544, then entered a typical stair-step upward structure, gradually climbing and breaking through $118,117 and $118,287, further rising to $118,731 by the end of the day, indicating an increased intention of bullish control.

July 21: Continuing the upward momentum from the previous day, it rose to $118,778 before a technical correction occurred, quickly rebounding to around $118,557. However, the market suddenly saw a significant drop, hitting a low of $116,914, followed by a rapid V-shaped reversal driven by strong buying, with the price not only recovering to $118,644 but also briefly breaking through $119,605. Although it couldn't stabilize at that high, it fell back to $118,016 but then surged again to $119,072, closing at $118,377, with intense fluctuations throughout the day, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears and showing signs of short-term market turmoil.

July 22: The price continued the high volatility from the previous day, starting the morning down from $117,473, hitting a low of $116,762 before rebounding. For a while, it showed a trend of oscillating upward, recovering to $117,804 before testing a low of $116,639, forming a double bottom structure and gaining effective support. In the afternoon, Bitcoin regained its upward momentum, oscillating upward and successfully breaking through the $119,000 mark, peaking at $119,429. Although it experienced a brief pullback in the evening, the bulls quickly took over, maintaining a strong stance, and ultimately closed at $118,956, indicating an increased bullish sentiment in the market.

July 23: Continuing the strong trend from the previous trading day, Bitcoin surged after opening, peaking at $120,204, marking a recent high point. However, it failed to achieve an effective breakthrough at this key psychological level, gradually retreating to $117,915. Subsequently, there was fierce competition between bulls and bears, with the price oscillating and hitting a low of $117,474, indicating intense contention in the high price area.

July 24: Bitcoin continued to show a wide range of fluctuations at high levels, with frequent shifts in the forces of bulls and bears throughout the day. In the morning, the price consolidated in the range of $117,500 to $118,700, then the bulls exerted force, pushing the price upward and forming a brief horizontal consolidation near $119,000, peaking at $119,274. However, after reaching this high point, it faced rapid selling pressure, quickly falling to a low of $117,523. The market then staged a strong rebound again, setting a new intraday high of $119,373 before slightly retreating before the close, maintaining a pattern of intense fluctuations, indicating significant divergence between bulls and bears within the current range.

July 25: Bitcoin maintained the high volatility from the previous trading day, continuing the rebound momentum in the morning, with the price rising to a peak of $119,398. However, this level once again became a short-term resistance, and the market then entered a downward channel, quickly retreating to around $117,850, completely giving back the short-term gains. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was reported at $117,859, still within the oscillation range. Overall, the price remains in the oscillation consolidation area between $117,500 and $119,500 in the short term. Without a strong breakout, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and short-term trading should remain cautious of sudden reversal risks.

Summary

This week, Bitcoin's overall trend exhibited a wide range of fluctuations, initially characterized by narrow sideways consolidation, followed by intense bullish and bearish competition at high levels, significantly increasing market volatility.

Specifically, from July 19 to 20, the price oscillated around the $118,000 level with relatively limited fluctuations, typical of a consolidation phase. Starting from July 21, market volatility intensified, with Bitcoin's price frequently experiencing rapid surges and deep pullbacks, displaying a clear wide-ranging oscillation trend. During this period, it repeatedly attempted to break through the $119,000 and $120,000 round numbers but failed to achieve effective breakthroughs, indicating heavy selling pressure above. Meanwhile, strong support was also evident below, with a quick rebound after a low of $116,639, indicating that bulls were actively buying below key support levels, leading to intense market competition.

The highest point during the week was $120,204, and the lowest was $116,639, with a volatility range of 3.06%. Technically, the high-level oscillation pattern has not been broken, and the short-term outlook remains biased towards strong oscillation. Key attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the resistance area between $119,000 and $120,000, as well as the effectiveness of support in the $117,500 to $116,500 range. Future trends may depend on changes in trading volume and macro news to guide direction.

Overall, although Bitcoin did not achieve a clear breakthrough this week, bullish momentum has emerged. If there is a significant breakout above key resistance levels in the future, a new trend may emerge. Conversely, if it falls below key support areas again, a deeper adjustment phase cannot be ruled out.

Bitcoin Price Trends (2025/07/19-2025/07/25)

2. Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

Capital Flow

1. Market funds are flowing into altcoins, causing Bitcoin's market share to decline

According to market data, Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC Dominance) has decreased for eight consecutive days, dropping to 61.15% as of July 20, below the annual high of 61.53% in 2024. The continued decline in Bitcoin's market share indicates that the "altcoin season" is gradually beginning.

On July 22, Coingecko data showed that Bitcoin's market share further dipped to 58.5%, primarily driven by the strong performance of mainstream altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP): ETH rose by 25.0% over seven days, and XRP increased by 20.4%, with SOL and BNB rising by 15.4% and 10.2%, respectively.
Crypto analyst @DaanCrypto pointed out that most of the top 100 altcoins by market capitalization have outperformed Bitcoin in the past month, which is the core driver of the decline in market share.

2. Miners and whales are selling off significantly, with exchange BTC inflows hitting a new high for the period

As Bitcoin's price climbed to historical highs, on-chain data indicated large-scale sell-offs occurring simultaneously:

• On July 15, the daily inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges surged to 81,000 BTC, the highest since February.

• Among this, the inflow from whales transferring over 100 BTC jumped from 13,000 BTC to 58,000 BTC.

• During the same period, miners transferred out 16,000 BTC, almost all of which flowed into exchanges.

Ethereum also showed a similar trend: on July 16, 2 million ETH flowed into exchanges, marking the highest point since the end of February this year, indicating a significant increase in short-term profit-taking sentiment in the market.

3. Various holding entities have resumed hoarding behavior, with funds shifting to on-chain accumulation

Despite the short-term market volatility, on-chain data shows that various types of coin-holding groups have returned to "hoarding" behavior. A report from Glassnode on July 21 indicated that from small investors to large whales, nearly all wallet size groups have re-entered the "perfect hoarding mode." The on-chain activity of whale wallets has returned to levels seen in December 2024, indicating strong confidence in the market's medium to long-term outlook.

4. Long-term holders are distributing on-chain, but it is difficult to change the trend of net capital inflow in the medium to long term

On July 24, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr pointed out that Bitcoin is currently experiencing an unusually high monthly capital destruction rate (CDD)/annual CDD ratio, reaching 0.25, comparable to levels seen at the 2014 peak and during the 2019 correction period. This reflects that long-term holders (LTH) are reintroducing BTC that has been dormant for years back onto the chain in preparation for sale.

This phenomenon suggests that experienced investors in the market (especially long-term holders) are actively distributing their holdings; the bullish trend is facing a certain degree of "internal distribution resistance"; and the current price level has triggered profit-taking behavior from some early holders.

However, Axel emphasized that despite the selling pressure from LTH behavior, the continuous capital inflow into U.S. ETFs (see Section 5) and the ongoing asset allocation by treasury-level funds indicate that this round of distribution is more likely a signal of a slowdown in short-term gains rather than the beginning of a complete trend reversal.

5. Current ETF funds continue to flow in

Daily ETF fund inflow/outflow details for this week:

July 21: -$131.4 million
July 22: -$6.8 million
July 23: -$85.8 million
July 24: +$194.2 million

ETF Inflow/Outflow Data Image

Despite some dates showing fund outflows, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF overall performance remains strong: on July 20, the total on-chain holdings surpassed 1.285 million BTC, accounting for 6.46% of the total Bitcoin supply, corresponding to a market value of approximately $151.8 billion.

At the same time, the Ethereum ETF performed particularly well last week, recording a net inflow of $2.182 billion, setting a new historical record for single-week inflows and doubling compared to the previous week. The Bitcoin ETF also recorded a net inflow of $2.385 billion during the same period, ranking seventh in the single-week fund inflow record for ETFs (the previous two weeks ranked fifth). This trend indicates that both mainstream asset Bitcoin and alternative mainstream asset Ethereum continue to attract attention and active allocation from institutional and retail investors, further solidifying the position of ETFs as long-term investment tools for digital assets.

Additionally, Grayscale has also sent positive signals. On July 24, Grayscale Investments announced that its Bitcoin mini trust ETF listed on the New York Stock Exchange (Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust) has surpassed $5 billion in assets under management since its launch on July 31, 2024, reaching $5.415 billion as of July 23, with a cumulative Bitcoin holding of 45,721 BTC, showing significant growth. Overall, ETFs are becoming an important channel for mainstream capital to enter the Bitcoin market, providing solid support for overall market liquidity and price stability.

Technical Indicator Analysis

1. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)

According to Investing.com data, as of July 25, 2025, Bitcoin's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 39.963, indicating a "Sell" signal area. Typically, the RSI operates within the range of 30-70, with below 30 considered oversold and above 70 considered overbought.

The current RSI is around 40, indicating that the market is in a weak oscillation phase, with bearish momentum but not showing extreme oversold conditions. This position reflects that market sentiment remains cautious, and buying power has not significantly returned.

Although the RSI has not yet entered the oversold area, if the RSI rises further and breaks above the 50 mark, it will indicate a weakening of bearish momentum, and bulls may regain control of the market rhythm; conversely, if the RSI falls below 35, it will release a stronger bearish signal, necessitating caution against further market declines.

2. Moving Average (MA) Analysis

5-day moving average (MA5): $119,361

20-day moving average (MA20): $115,362

50-day moving average (MA50): $111,003

100-day moving average (MA100): $100,906

Current market price: $117,480

MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100 Data Image

The current price is operating between MA20 and MA5, indicating that the market is in a short-term oscillation correction phase:

MA5 > Current Price > MA20: indicates that short-term momentum is showing signs of slowing down, with short-term moving averages turning downward, reflecting some profit-taking pressure in the market.
MA20 is significantly above MA50 and MA100: indicating that the medium-term trend remains upward and has not been broken, with long-term moving average support remaining solid.
If the price stabilizes above MA5 again, accompanied by increased volume, the short-term trend is expected to strengthen; conversely, if it falls below MA20, it may test the support strength of MA50 below.

The moving averages show a typical bullish arrangement, with the medium to long-term trend remaining healthy, as long as the price does not significantly fall below MA50, the overall structure remains bullish.

3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Analysis

According to Investing.com data, as of July 25, the MACD fast line is -76.53, with both the MACD fast and slow lines currently below the 0 axis, and the fast line continuously crossing below the slow line, forming a death cross pattern, releasing a clear "Sell" signal. The histogram is expanding, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening, with bears dominating the market.

The continued expansion of the MACD death cross position suggests that the short-term downward trend may continue. If the histogram begins to converge and the death cross narrows, it may signal a brewing rebound, necessitating close attention to the timing of crossing above the 0 axis.

4. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels: The current short-term key support levels for Bitcoin are at $117,500, $117,000, and $116,500. From recent price behavior: on July 19, 21, and 22, BTC repeatedly fell to around $117,000, gaining effective support each time, indicating strong buying power in this area. During the severe drop from July 21 to 22, the price briefly touched around $116,500 but quickly rebounded, showing that this position serves as the current market's short-term bottom support area, possessing strong stop-loss effects. On July 24, the price repeatedly tested near $117,500 and rebounded, confirming strong buying willingness at this price level, forming an effective defense line in the short term. If the market falls below $116,500, attention should be paid to the strength of lower support levels, including the $115,000 round number.

Resistance Levels: The current short-term main resistance levels for Bitcoin are at $119,000 and $120,000, with $119,000 being a key technical level that has repeatedly faced resistance in recent trading. On July 21, 22, and 24, the price tested the $119,000 resistance multiple times but failed to break through effectively each time, showing heavy selling pressure in this area. On July 23, it briefly broke through $120,000 but did not stabilize effectively, quickly retreating afterward, confirming that this level remains an important threshold for bullish advances. In the medium term, if it can effectively break through $120,000 and stabilize, further upward pressure will concentrate around $121,000.

Comprehensive Judgment

From the current structure, Bitcoin has maintained oscillation and consolidation within the range of $116,500 - $120,300 this week, with the market awaiting a new directional choice. In the short term, support is gradually moving up, indicating that bulls possess a certain willingness to support, but the selling pressure above remains evident, with no significant breakout actions observed, leading to an overall neutral to bullish market sentiment. If there is a breakout above $120,000 and stabilization, it may challenge $121,000, or even initiate a new upward trend; conversely, if it falls below $116,500, caution is warranted against the risk of short-term sentiment weakening and a pullback to the $115,000-$114,000 range seeking new support.

Market Sentiment Analysis

1. Sentiment Overview

This week, the overall sentiment in the Bitcoin market has shown a positive and optimistic trend. Despite the price continuing to oscillate within a high range and significant volatility, investors generally exhibit strong confidence in holding positions and a risk appetite. There have been multiple instances of "roller coaster" fluctuations during the day, reflecting intense competition between bulls and bears around key price levels.

During the period from July 19 to 20, Bitcoin's price maintained a narrow range of sideways consolidation, with market trading sentiment relatively cautious, and a wait-and-see attitude prevailing, as funds did not flow significantly in or out, indicating that investors tend to wait for directional choices near key points.

On July 21 and 23, the market exhibited a typical "false breakout + rapid pullback" pattern. Bitcoin broke through short-term resistance levels twice before quickly retreating, indicating insufficient bullish momentum and rapid bearish counterattacks, leading to short-term fluctuations in market sentiment. The frequent entry and exit of high-leverage funds further amplified short-term volatility, causing sharp swings in sentiment.

Overall, Bitcoin's price has maintained a wide oscillation range at relatively high levels this week ($116,500 - $120,300), with market sentiment leaning towards optimism. However, under the repeated interplay of bullish and bearish forces, strong uncertainty is evident. Bullish confidence remains, but there is a lack of clear breakthrough catalysts, while bears repeatedly exert pressure at key resistance levels, forming a typical high-level competition pattern.

2. Key Sentiment Indicator (Fear and Greed Index)

As of July 25, the Fear and Greed Index is reported at 66, indicating a "Greed" zone, showing that current market participants generally have a bullish sentiment and are willing to continue participating in bullish trades at high levels. Despite significant price fluctuations, overall market risk appetite remains high, with retail and some institutional investors actively participating in positioning.

Looking back at the week (July 19 - July 24), the daily values of the Fear and Greed Index were: 69 (Greed), 68 (Greed), 67 (Greed), 67 (Greed), 70 (Greed), 67 (Greed). This index has consistently remained within the 67-70 range this week, with small fluctuations, and has always been at the high edge of the "Greed" zone, indicating that despite the existence of short-term technical pullbacks in the market, sentiment has not been significantly pressured. This sentiment structure often suggests that the market may have entered a plateau phase of high sentiment, and once there is a lack of new upward drivers, it may trigger a sentiment correction.

It is particularly noteworthy that when the Fear and Greed Index remains at high levels while the price fails to effectively break through the upper key resistance range, the market may be accumulating potential sentiment divergence risks, and caution should be exercised against the "overheated sentiment" leading to phase adjustments in the future.

Overall, from the interplay of sentiment indicators and price behavior, the Bitcoin market is generally in a strong oscillation pattern at high levels this week. Although investor sentiment appears optimistic, there are signs of hesitation at high levels and capital rotation. The continuous accumulation of greedy sentiment combined with short-term volatility indicates that the market is in a highly sensitive critical phase. In the coming week, if the price fails to effectively break through previous highs and stabilize at key psychological levels, market sentiment may face a transition from optimism to caution, and investors are advised to closely monitor changes in trading volume, on-chain capital flow data, and macro catalytic factors to guard against the price pullback risks brought about by short-term sentiment fluctuations.

Fear and Greed Index Data Image

Macroeconomic Background

1. Trump's "Federal Reserve Pressure Action"

On July 24, Trump unexpectedly visited the Federal Reserve headquarters, criticizing the over $700 million in renovation overruns, further pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to significantly cut interest rates and hinting at a possible early personnel change.

This move was interpreted by the market as an intervention in the independence of the central bank, which, although not causing violent fluctuations in the dollar in the short term, clearly increased policy uncertainty and boosted demand for safe-haven assets (such as Bitcoin).

2. Powell's Speech and Key Economic Data Combination

On July 22, Powell reiterated at a European conference that "the Fed will remain data-driven and will not be swayed by political motives," suggesting that interest rate cuts will not be influenced by current disturbances.

From July 23 to 24, various economic indicators, including existing home sales, new housing starts, manufacturing and services PMIs, and quarterly reports from about 112 companies, will be released in quick succession. If core inflation data unexpectedly weakens, it may again stimulate market expectations for interest rate cuts, guiding funds into Bitcoin.

3. China's Economic Recovery Boosts Global Risk Appetite

On July 21, China's second-quarter GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, which warmed global market risk appetite and led to capital inflows into risk assets.

At the same time, tensions in international trade eased, U.S. stocks consolidated, and funds gradually flowed into crypto assets.

4. Capital Rotation Trend: Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Role Becomes Prominent

On July 22, the latest analysis showed that the correlation between BTC and traditional stock markets (S&P, Nasdaq) has dropped to about 0.2, with funds flowing into the crypto market during stock market pullbacks.
Since early July, Bitcoin has risen by 3.5%, maintaining a total market capitalization between $3.4 trillion and $4 trillion, with the weakness in U.S. stocks providing short-term upward momentum.

5. Traditional Finance Further Embraces the Crypto Ecosystem

On July 22, JPMorgan is considering incorporating crypto assets (BTC/ETH) into its credit collateral system, marking a larger-scale institutional entry.
This shift is seen as a signal for institutional entry, helping to reduce volatility in the crypto market and enhance market depth.

6. Massive ETF Fund Inflows

As of July 23, statistics show that by mid-July, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $54.8 billion, with two consecutive days of over $1 billion inflows at the beginning of July.
Such capital inflows provide solid price support for Bitcoin, explaining the recent upward momentum.

3. Hash Rate Changes

From July 19 to July 25, 2025, Bitcoin's network hash rate showed fluctuations, with specific conditions as follows:

On July 19, the overall network hash rate exhibited a "rise then fall" trend, increasing from 890.76 EH/s to 1.0240 ZH/s (i.e., 1,024.0 EH/s) during the day, then gradually falling back to 833.26 EH/s by the end of the day, indicating that miners may conduct short-term power outages or maintenance after high loads. On July 20, the hash rate steadily climbed from a daily low of 795.58 EH/s to 989.33 EH/s, with a slight pullback to 909.64 EH/s during the period, but maintaining at 943.78 EH/s by the end of the day, showing an overall warming trend. On July 21, the hash rate fluctuated more dramatically, first dropping significantly to 847.81 EH/s, then quickly rebounding, reaching 975 EH/s by noon, and rising to 1.0131 ZH/s in the evening, marking the day's high point, indicating that miners quickly restored output after a short-term recovery in power or environmental conditions.

On July 22, the hash rate slightly retreated to 939.25 EH/s, then gradually climbed, reaching 992.62 EH/s and 1.0524 ZH/s, peaking at 1.1092 ZH/s, marking the week's peak. However, it could not be maintained, subsequently falling back significantly, ending the day at 933.24 EH/s, indicating that large-scale fluctuations may be related to intermittent online and offline operations of some mining farms. On July 23, the hash rate continued the previous day's retreat trend, dropping significantly to 829.70 EH/s, returning to the low range seen at the beginning of the week, reflecting that miners may still face operational costs or external power supply pressures. The hash rate briefly rebounded to 892.35 EH/s during the noon period, then fell again, but the downward pace slowed. In the evening, the hash rate gradually stabilized and slowly rose to 937.62 EH/s, indicating that network computing power began to recover. On July 24, the hash rate retreated again in the morning, touching 830.78 EH/s, then began a clear upward trend, reaching an intraday high of 993.70 EH/s in the afternoon. However, this level could not be effectively maintained, and it eventually fell back to 887.72 EH/s. Overall, the trend shows that computing power has somewhat recovered.

During the period from July 19 to July 25, Bitcoin's overall network hash rate exhibited a state of "initial oscillation upward, then high-level retreat." In the first half of the week (July 19 to July 22), the hash rate was generally on the rise, with the low points continuously moving up, reflecting that network stability gradually strengthened and some large mining farms resumed operations. The peak during this period occurred on July 22, reaching 1.1092 ZH/s. However, this high level did not last, followed by a significant retreat, possibly related to strategic shutdowns of some mining farms, price fluctuations, or changes in external environments. In the second half of the week (July 23 to July 24), the hash rate quickly dropped to the low range seen at the beginning of the week, hitting a low of 829.70 EH/s, but then gradually stabilized and rebounded, reaching 993.70 EH/s on July 24. Although it eventually fell back, the overall trend showed a pattern of oscillation recovery, indicating that network computing power has a certain recovery capability, and miners are responding flexibly to market conditions.

Overall, this week's Bitcoin hash rate trend reflects the current sensitivity and flexibility of miner operations. On one hand, under the influence of external factors such as electricity costs and climate, the operation of computing power shows strong short-term volatility; on the other hand, against the backdrop of attractive prices, the rapid recovery of computing power also indicates that miners' willingness to maintain output remains strong. If external conditions stabilize in the future, the hash rate is expected to gradually return to high-level ranges.

Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data

4. Mining Revenue

According to YCharts data, the daily total revenue of Bitcoin miners (including block rewards and transaction fees) for this week is as follows: July 19: $55.14 million; July 20: $55.35 million; July 21: $55.85 million; July 22: $56.70 million; July 23: $52.38 million. Overall, the average daily revenue of miners this week fluctuated between $52 million and $57 million, showing a more stable trend compared to the previous week. Although there was a slight decline on July 23, the overall fluctuation range was small, reflecting that the current market is at a relatively stable level of block generation and transaction activity.

From the perspective of daily revenue per unit of computing power (Hashprice), Hashrate Index data shows that Hashprice has been relatively stable this week. As of the time of writing on July 25, Hashprice is reported at $59.65 per PH/s per day. The overall performance of Hashprice this week has been stable, showing a mild upward trend. From the trend, the low points of Hashprice are gradually rising, indicating that miners' unit output efficiency has improved, and mining returns have slightly improved.

July 23 was the high point of the week, with Hashprice reaching $60.33 per PH/s per day, showing the market's short-term recovery momentum for mining revenue. On July 25, Hashprice was $60.10 per PH/s per day, following closely behind as the second-highest level of the week. Overall, the fluctuation range of Hashprice this week has been small, reflecting that the market has entered a relatively stable phase, and the structure of miners' revenue has not undergone drastic changes. From a monthly perspective, the current Hashprice is at the median level of the past 30 days, and the price fluctuations over the past two weeks have converged, indicating that the market is gradually recovering from earlier drastic adjustments. From a quarterly perspective, Hashprice is at a mid-high level over the past three months, which remains acceptable for most miners with good operational efficiency, helping to maintain enthusiasm for computing power investment.

The steady rise of Hashprice during this phase is related to the slowing growth of the overall network hash rate. Since the competitive pressure on the network has not significantly increased, and Bitcoin prices remain high, the unit revenue obtained by miners shows a phase of recovery, which is conducive to enhancing the activity of mining in the medium to short term.

Hashprice Data

5. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency

According to CloverPool data, as of July 25, 2025, Bitcoin's overall network computing power has risen to 916.17 EH/s, with mining difficulty at 126.27 T. The next round of difficulty adjustment is expected to occur on July 26, with an increase of approximately 0.56%, bringing the difficulty to an estimated 126.97 T. This phenomenon reflects that miners remain optimistic about the network's prospects, and the intensity of competition continues to rise.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

From the perspective of mining costs, according to the latest model data from MacroMicro, the average production cost as of July 20 is approximately $95,333, with a corresponding cost/spot price ratio of about 0.81 against the day's spot price of $117,300; the latest data from July 23 also shows a cost of about $94,905, with a spot price of approximately $118,755, maintaining a cost ratio of 0.80, overall fluctuating in the range of 0.80-0.81. This cost ratio level indicates that miners can average about 20% gross profit margin, and the current Puell Multiple is at 1.38-1.39, with the value of block rewards still above the annual average level, indicating that miners' income is relatively considerable. Additionally, the daily issuance from July 19 to 24 has stabilized at 437-469 BTC, with the total market capitalization ranging from $2.33 trillion to $2.39 trillion, maintaining a stable relationship between supply and demand, which supports the stability of prices and costs.

Total Mining Cost per Bitcoin Data

This week, Bitcoin mining has maintained a good profit status. Although unit production costs have risen, the high spot prices keep the cost-spot price ratio around 0.80, allowing miners to maintain an average profit margin of about 20%, with overall cash flow being ample. The steady increase in overall network computing power and the expected rise in difficulty reflect strong confidence among miners and ongoing intensifying competition in the industry. However, as mining difficulty reaches new highs, high-energy, low-efficiency mining farms are facing elimination pressure. Future profitability will depend on Bitcoin price trends and whether miners can optimize energy efficiency or relocate to low electricity price areas. Overall, the mining industry is operating steadily in the short term, but attention should still be paid to changes in energy costs and potential risks brought about by market fluctuations.

6. Policy and Regulatory News

IMF Confirms El Salvador's Bitcoin Holdings Remain Unchanged, Purchase Behavior Complies with Agreement Commitments

On July 20, El Salvador's Minister of Finance and Central Bank Governor confirmed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that since signing the financing agreement in February 2025, the government has not purchased additional Bitcoin, and the existing Bitcoin quantity remains unchanged, with relevant wallet addresses provided to the IMF for monitoring. On July 24, the IMF further stated that the accumulation of Bitcoin in El Salvador's strategic Bitcoin reserve fund complies with planned conditions, and the total amount of Bitcoin in the current government wallet remains unchanged, in line with agreement commitments. This statement contrasts with President Bukele's remarks about "purchasing one Bitcoin daily." The IMF pointed out that the growth in Bitcoin balance only reflects internal consolidation and does not violate the terms of the agreement.

Related Image

7. Mining News

Brazilian Miners Warn: Retaliatory Tariffs Against the U.S. Could Result in $1 Billion Losses

On July 22, news emerged that the Brazilian mining industry warned that if the government takes reciprocal tariff measures in response to U.S. President Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff starting August 1, it could lead to severe economic consequences.

Raul Jungmann, head of the Brazilian Mining Association (Ibram), stated that if Trump follows through on his threat and Brazil implements such countermeasures, the mining sector could face up to $1 billion in additional costs each year. Brazilian mining executives are considering dialogue with U.S. companies to push the Trump administration back to the negotiating table.

Bitcoin Mining Company Mawson Fires CEO Due to Allegations of Fraud and Misconduct

On July 22, news from The Miner Mag reported that Bitcoin mining and hosting company Mawson Infrastructure has fired its CEO and President Rahul Mewawalla, revoking his board seat due to violations of fiduciary duties and fraudulent behavior. Mawson has filed a lawsuit in Delaware Chancery Court seeking damages.

Mewawalla had previously received a $2.5 million bonus and 1.2 million restricted shares for "high performance," with his annual salary rising to $1.2 million. In his response, he denied any wrongdoing, emphasizing that the company's revenue grew by 36% and gross profit increased by 35% under his leadership.

Additionally, Mawson has recently been embroiled in a lawsuit with NYDIG and its parent company Stone Ridge over custody disputes involving over 20,000 mining machines valued at $30 million.

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Russian Officials: The State Should Seize Cryptocurrencies from Illegal Miners

On July 23, news emerged that Yevgeny Masharov, a member of the Russian Public Chamber and a policymaker, stated that authorities should be granted the power to seize cryptocurrencies from illegal or quasi-legal Bitcoin miners. Masharov believes that this proposal will deter "gray" miners by making illegal mining unprofitable.

Masharov noted that illegal miners in many regions put significant pressure on their power grids, and if this proposal is accepted, regions in Russia, "especially those with energy shortages, will breathe a sigh of relief."

8. Bitcoin News

Global Corporate Bitcoin Holdings Dynamics (Weekly Statistics)

1. El Salvador (Country):

According to mempool data on July 20, El Salvador's national Bitcoin holdings have surpassed 6,200 BTC, with the current holding amount at 6,242.18 BTC, valued at approximately $736 million. This marks the country's continued implementation of its "Bitcoin national policy," steadily accumulating digital asset reserves.

2. UK Vaultz Capital
   On July 21, news emerged that the UK-listed company Vaultz Capital announced an increase of 20 BTC, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 70 BTC. The company has recently begun to accelerate its layout of Bitcoin assets as part of its digital asset allocation.

3. Europe The Blockchain Group
   According to an official announcement on July 21, the European-listed company The Blockchain Group increased its holdings by 22 BTC this week, with a total investment of approximately 2.2 million euros. The latest statistics show that its total Bitcoin holdings have reached 1,955 BTC, with a year-to-date holding return rate of 1,373.2%, demonstrating strong investment returns.

4. USA Sequans Communications
   On July 21, news emerged that the U.S. listed company Sequans significantly increased its holdings by 1,264 BTC this week, with a purchase value of approximately $150 million. This raised its total Bitcoin holdings from 1,053 BTC to 2,317 BTC, making it one of the largest U.S. companies to increase its holdings this week.

5. USA Genius Group
   On July 21, the U.S. listed company Genius Group announced another increase of 20 BTC, raising its total holdings to 200 BTC. The company has been continuously increasing its BTC holdings in recent years to enhance its asset diversification capabilities.

6. Australia Monochrome (IBTC Spot ETF)
   Data disclosed on July 22 shows that Australia's Monochrome's IBTC spot Bitcoin ETF had increased its BTC holdings to 954 BTC as of July 21, with a total value of approximately 175 million Australian dollars at the time of the market price, indicating continued inflows from institutional investors into the spot Bitcoin market.

7. Canada Belgravia Hartford

On July 24, an official announcement stated that Canadian company Belgravia Hartford purchased 25 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 40.8 BTC.

Public Company Bitcoin Treasury Dynamics (Weekly)

1. U.S. listed company Aether Holdings to raise $40 million to purchase Bitcoin

On July 19, news emerged that Aether Holdings announced it would raise $40 million, with most of the funds allocated for purchasing Bitcoin as part of its financial reserve strategy. As of the time of writing, the company's market capitalization is $158 million.

2. Swedish listed company H100 Group AB completes a directed issuance to lay out Bitcoin
   On July 21, news emerged that H100 Group AB completed a directed issuance, raising approximately $1.3 million to advance its Bitcoin treasury strategy.

3. Indian listed company Jetking expands Bitcoin reserves
   On July 21, news emerged that Jetking's board approved a directed issuance plan to raise 1.15 billion rupees, primarily for increasing Bitcoin holdings, general operations, and Bitcoin education and training.

4. U.S. listed company Profusa signs a $100 million financing agreement and launches a Bitcoin reserve strategy
   On July 21, Profusa (NASDAQ: PFSA) signed an equity credit agreement with Ascent Partners, intending to raise up to $100 million to purchase Bitcoin as a core asset.

5. Trump Media Technology Group's Bitcoin reserves have reached $2 billion
   On July 21, news emerged that Trump Media Technology Group (DJT.O) announced its total Bitcoin reserves have reached $2 billion and will continue to acquire Bitcoin and related assets.

6. K Wave Media collaborates with Galaxy Digital to advance Bitcoin strategy
   On July 22, news emerged that K Wave Media (NASDAQ: KWM) reached a strategic cooperation with Galaxy Digital, having purchased 88 BTC and received nearly $1 billion in institutional funding support.

7. Electric vehicle company Volcon makes its first purchase of 280 BTC and completes a $500 million private placement
   On July 22, news emerged that the U.S. listed company Volcon made its first purchase of 280.14 BTC and completed over $500 million in private placement financing for its Bitcoin strategic deployment.

8. Mexican real estate group Grupo Murano plans to establish a $10 billion Bitcoin treasury
   On July 22, news emerged that Grupo Murano announced it would invest $1 billion in Bitcoin and plans to build a $10 billion Bitcoin asset reserve within five years.

9. Swedish company Fragbite Group makes its first Bitcoin purchase
   On July 22, news emerged that Fragbite Group announced its first purchase of approximately 4.3 BTC, initiating the company's Bitcoin treasury strategy.

10. Japanese textile company Kitabo plans to purchase $5.4 million in Bitcoin
    On July 22, news emerged that Japanese company Kitabo announced plans to purchase approximately 800 million yen (about $5.4 million) in Bitcoin as part of its new financial strategy.

11. Japanese listed company Metaplanet's holdings have increased 66 times in a year, firmly establishing its Bitcoin treasury strategy
    On July 23, news emerged that Metaplanet's CEO Simon Gerovich stated on social media that the company held only 246 BTC a year ago, and its Bitcoin holdings have now increased to 16,352 BTC, a growth of 66 times. Metaplanet will firmly advance its Bitcoin treasury strategy established 15 months ago, continuing to move towards the "1% club."

12. Canadian listed company Matador secures $100 million in financing for Bitcoin treasury construction
    On July 23, news emerged that Canadian listed company Matador announced it secured $100 million in financing to advance its Bitcoin treasury construction plan.

13. Canadian listed company Planet Ventures plans to raise 5 million Canadian dollars to increase Bitcoin holdings
    On July 23, news emerged that Canadian listed company Planet Ventures announced plans to raise up to 5 million Canadian dollars (approximately $3.7 million) through convertible debt financing to further increase its Bitcoin holdings and strengthen its Bitcoin treasury position.

14. Swedish listed company Hilbert Group reaches a $15.8 million financing agreement to increase Bitcoin holdings
    On July 23, news emerged that Swedish company Hilbert Group signed a structured financing agreement with LDA Capital for a total of 150 million Swedish kronor (approximately $15.8 million). This financing will be flexibly drawn over 36 months to gradually increase Bitcoin holdings. Hilbert will continue to advance its Bitcoin treasury strategy.

15. Canadian listed company Sixty Six Capital increases its holdings by 16.02 BTC through ETF
    On July 24, news emerged that Canadian listed company Sixty Six Capital announced an indirect increase of 16.02 BTC through an increase in 114,000 units of the Bitcoin ETF BTCC.B, bringing its total holdings to 148.8 BTC. The company clearly positions itself as a "Bitcoin treasury + crypto investment company." In the future, it plans to convert ETF-equivalent BTC into spot Bitcoin holdings when feasible.

16. Nativo Resources announces the adoption of Bitcoin as a financial reserve strategy
    On July 24, news emerged that London-listed company Nativo Resources (LON:NTVO) announced the adoption of a digital asset financial policy, using part of its cash flow and financing funds to hold Bitcoin. The company believes that BTC and gold can serve as reserve assets against inflation and has partnered with Copper.co to provide custody services. The board stated that despite price volatility and regulatory risks, the company still views Bitcoin as one of its core financial tools.

17. Satsuma raises $135 million, setting a record for Bitcoin treasury financing in the UK
    On July 24, news emerged that Satsuma Technology successfully raised £100 million (approximately $135 million) to establish a corporate Bitcoin treasury. If the entire amount is converted to BTC, it will become the second-largest Bitcoin-holding company in the UK. The current record is held by The Smarter Web Company, which holds 1,600 BTC.

18. Strategy raises its financing scale to $2 billion for increasing Bitcoin holdings
    On July 24, market news indicated that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has raised its financing scale from $500 million to $2 billion for purchasing Bitcoin. Previously, on July 22, news emerged that Strategy announced the launch of an IPO, issuing 5 million shares of STRC stock, with the raised funds intended for purchasing Bitcoin and other company purposes.

Tim Draper: Macroeconomic Factors Will Weaken the Impact of Bitcoin Halving Cycles

On July 20, news emerged that macroeconomic factors, including the depreciation of the U.S. dollar (USD), will weaken the impact of Bitcoin halving cycles. Since 2009, the cyclical fluctuations of the Bitcoin market have stemmed from these halving cycles. Tim Draper, founder and partner of venture capital firm Draper Associates, pointed out in an interview.

"In the next 10 to 20 years, the dollar will disappear," Draper stated in the interview. "The world is changing, and we are witnessing this process. We are in a significant leap of human civilization," he added.

Tim Draper noted that investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a "safety valve" against poor governance, distrust of banking institutions, fiat currency inflation, and geopolitical tensions, which are driving global adoption of Bitcoin, a digital currency with a limited supply. The venture capital firm added:

"If Bitcoin continues to confront the dollar in its current manner, the impact of halving events may weaken, as this trend could persist for a longer time. It will still be influenced by the four-year cycle to some extent, but I believe the impact will diminish."

Michael Saylor: There Are Only 10 Years Left to Acquire Bitcoin

On July 21, news emerged that Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, stated, "You have 10 years to acquire Bitcoin; after that, there will be no Bitcoin left for you."

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Fundstrat Co-Founder: Predicts Bitcoin Price May Exceed $1 Million in the Coming Years

On July 21, news emerged that Tom Lee, co-founder and managing partner of Fundstrat, stated in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" program that Bitcoin's price may exceed $1 million in the coming years.

PlanB: Bitcoin is at Least 10 Times Undervalued

On July 21, news emerged that analyst PlanB stated on platform X, "The market value of gold is about $20 trillion, while Bitcoin's market value is about $2 trillion. Therefore, gold's value is 10 times that of Bitcoin. The scarcity of gold (stock-to-flow ratio) is about 60, while Bitcoin's scarcity is about 120. Thus, Bitcoin's scarcity is twice that of gold. I believe Bitcoin is at least 10 times undervalued."

Arthur Hayes: Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $250,000 and Ethereum Will Reach $10,000 by Year-End

On July 23, news emerged that Arthur Hayes predicted that Bitcoin's price would reach $250,000 by the end of the year, while Ethereum would touch $10,000.

Hayes pointed out that the wartime economic policies of the Trump administration are creating credit growth flowing into the cryptocurrency market, and the model of stablecoin issuers purchasing treasury bonds to finance government deficits will further drive the market upward.

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Data: Only 5.3% of Bitcoin Remains Unmined, Over 7.5% Has Permanently Disappeared

On July 24, news emerged that according to Curated Crypto data, only 5.3% of Bitcoin remains unmined. It is estimated that over 7.5% of the total Bitcoin supply has permanently disappeared from circulation due to lost wallets, forgotten private keys, or destruction.