Author: Georgia Jansen, Munchee | Editor: Georgia Jansen, Munchee

1. Bitcoin Market

BTC Chart

Bitcoin has followed a rhythm this week of "high-level consolidation → breakdown → ETF-driven rebound → sharp drop → stabilization at a low level." The weekly high was $116,138.4 (September 20), and the low was $108,675.3 (September 25), with a fluctuation of about 6.4%. It closed at $109,681.3 on September 26, down about 5.2% from the September 20 closing of $115,699.2. The attached chart clearly presents this process: initially stabilizing around $115--116k, then stepping down to $112k, experiencing a brief rebound followed by a "gap" sharp drop, and finally consolidating around $109k.

Phase One - $115--116k High-Level Consolidation (9/20--9/21)

The volatility converged at the beginning of the week. 9/20: high $116,138.4, low $115,424.9, close $115,699.2. 9/21: high $115,833.2, low $115,205.5, close $115,243.0. Prices fluctuated within a narrow range of 400--700 points, maintaining the $115k platform, reflecting cautious stability.

Driving Force Analysis:

The market digested last week's 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve, waiting for new catalysts such as the U.S. core PCE. Directional willingness was weak, and traders were cautious with their positions. ETF funding remained calm, and sentiment was neutral.

Phase Two - Breakdown to $112k Range (9/22--9/23)

The platform was lost at the beginning of the week. 9/22: high $115,382.7, low $111,964.9, close $112,673.0. 9/23: high $113,279.9, low $111,501.9, close $112,002.6. BTC lost the $115k level and dropped to the $112k range for two days.

Driving Force Analysis:

The news focused on deleveraging after the Federal Reserve and passive liquidation of futures long positions. As macro data approached, risk appetite weakened, and the market adopted a defensive stance. This phase resembled "cleaning up excessive leverage" rather than a fundamental shift to bearish.

Phase Three - ETF Net Inflow Triggers Midweek Rebound (9/24)

After the breakdown, a rebound occurred. 9/24: high $113,951.0, low $111,212.0, close $113,307.1. The intraday rebound was nearly 1,800 points, marking the only significant up day of the week.

Driving Force Analysis:

According to SoSoValue, on 9/24, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was about $241 million, led by BlackRock's IBIT. New demand supported buying on dips, pushing prices to retest $113--114k.

Phase Four - Renewed Net Outflow Triggers Sharp Drop (9/25) Rebound Quickly Fails.

9/25:

High $113,508.6, low $108,675.3, close $109,016.3. A key down day of the week, with an intraday drop of nearly 4,000 points, closing below $110k.

Driving Force Analysis:

ETF funds turned to net outflows, with a net outflow of about $258 million that day, mainly due to redemptions from Fidelity's FBTC. Coupled with ongoing deleveraging, this triggered a chain reaction of stop-loss selling, resulting in a steep decline.

Phase Five - Stabilization Around $109k (9/26)

After the sharp drop, low-level fluctuations occurred. 9/26: high $109,804.5, low $108,851.1, close $109,681.3. The intraday range was only 950 points, showing a consolidation pattern without continued declines.

Driving Force Analysis:

The market awaited the U.S. core PCE. Leverage had been largely cleared, and ETF flows slowed, entering a wait-and-see period. Analysts attributed this week's decline to position adjustments rather than a structural weakening in demand.

Summary

From 9/20 to 9/26, BTC transitioned from high-level consolidation at $115--116k to a step-down to $112k, with a midweek rebound due to ETF net inflows. On 9/25, it fell to a weekly low of $108,675.3 due to renewed net outflows, ultimately stabilizing around $109.7k. The weekly range was $116,138.4 → $108,675.3, with a weekly decline of about 5.2%. The core rhythm was dominated by ETF flows of "first positive then negative" (net inflow on 9/24 vs. net outflow on 9/25) and risk reduction ahead of macro data.

2. Market Momentum and Macro Background

Capital Flows

1) ETF Flows

This week's spot ETF flows were highly volatile, reflecting frequent short-term speculation:

9/22: -$363.1 million

9/23: -$103.8 million

9/24: +$241 million

9/25: -$3.331 billion

ETF Inflow/Outflow Data Image

Net outflows dominated on the 22nd and 23rd, accompanied by a wave of liquidations, indicating that short-term funds were avoiding risks. The 24th saw a shift to net inflows, primarily due to buying on dips, but it was insufficient to reverse the trend. On the 25th, a massive net outflow of -$3.331 billion erased previous gains, and panic redemptions remained strong. This week, ETF funds were highly sensitive to price, quickly reversing upon negative triggers.

2) Short-Term Sharp Drops and Liquidation Waves

Two concentrated liquidation events occurred in late September, amplifying short-term volatility.

On 9/22, the market experienced significant selling in a short time. Total liquidations across the market reached $1.5 billion, impacting long positions in BTC and ETH, marking the largest single-day liquidation in 2025. BTC briefly dipped to $111,900 before rebounding on bottom-fishing buying.

On 9/26, another wave of liquidations occurred. According to Coinglass, total liquidations in the previous 24 hours reached $1.202 billion, with long positions at $1.095 billion and short positions at $107 million. By asset: BTC long positions at $273 million and short positions at $9.9 million; ETH long positions at $413 million and short positions at $37.37 million. A total of 266,671 traders were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation being a $29.12 million ETH-USD perpetual contract on Hyperliquid.

The two concentrated liquidation events highlighted the fragility of leveraged funds, making price fluctuations prone to triggering chain reactions. In the short term, liquidations intensified selling pressure and forced ETFs and internal funds to turn to net outflows; at the same time, lower price levels after liquidations attracted bottom-fishing and medium-to-long-term positioning.

3) Exchange Fund Flows (In/Out)

On 9/25, the net outflow from centralized exchanges (CEX) in the past 24 hours totaled 7,989.16 BTC:

Coinbase Pro: -7,753.21 BTC

Binance: -555.96 BTC

Bybit: -348.13 BTC

Bitfinex: +524.51 BTC (largest net inflow)

Data from 9/21 showed a cumulative net outflow of about 40,213.72 BTC from CEX over the past 7 days.

Funds flowed from centralized exchanges to cold wallets/custodial wallets, indicating a preference for long-term holding (HODL). Continued net outflows are generally seen as a medium-to-long-term bullish signal.

4) Stablecoin Market

Total market cap of stablecoins: $292.623 billion (as of 9/20)

7-day growth: +1.37%

Structural changes:

USDT's share dropped to 58.79%

USDE minted +5.57% in the past week

USDC minted +1.59% in the past week

Although USDT remains dominant, its market share is gradually diluted, with funds flowing to new or scenario-based stablecoins. The expansion of total market cap provides additional liquidity and trading capital for BTC and the crypto market; changes in market share reflect structural diversification, related to chain ecosystems, DeFi demand, and adjustments in trading platforms, which have forward-looking significance for future capital flows.

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Technical Indicator Analysis

1) Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)

According to Bitbo, on 9/26, Bitcoin's 14-day RSI was 33.02, close to the oversold threshold (<30). This indicates that there is some room for a short-term rebound, but selling pressure remains heavy. The RSI declined throughout the week, with momentum skewed to the downside; if it falls below 30, it will strengthen the oversold signal.

Bitcoin 14-day RSI Chart

2) Moving Averages (MA)

MA5 (5 days): $112,036

MA20 (20 days): $114,009

MA50 (50 days): $116,516

MA100 (100 days): $113,401

Current price: $109,761

BTC is below MA5, MA20, MA50, and MA100, with a clear bearish arrangement. The short-term MA5 is accelerating downward and has crossed below MA20, reinforcing the bearish advantage; the mid-term MA20 and MA50 are sloping down, with selling pressure continuing. Unless it returns above MA20 (around $114,000), the bearish structure remains unchanged.

MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100, M200 Data Image

3) Key Support and Resistance

Support:

$108,800, $112,000. After dropping to $112,000 on 9/22, it stabilized, indicating a buying defense line; after dipping to $108,800 on 9/26, it rebounded, confirming it as a key short-term support.

Resistance:

$110,000, $114,000. It faced resistance near $114,000 on 9/25; on 9/26, multiple rebounds failed to break $110,000, indicating significant selling pressure.

Comprehensive Analysis

This week's trend was weak, with bears dominating:

RSI is near oversold but rebound momentum is limited.

Prices are below major moving averages, with a clear bearish arrangement.

$108,800 is a key support; if lost, it could drop to $106,000--$105,000. A rally requires reclaiming $110,000 first, then challenging $114,000.

Conclusion:

After a failed consolidation, the breakdown led to a rapid decline in risk appetite. Caution is advised in the short term; bulls should wait for stabilization above $108,800 and a rebound in RSI before reassessing for a rebound; if there is a significant drop in volume, bears can still extend downward.

Market Sentiment

As of 9/26, the Fear and Greed Index was at 32, in the "Fear" zone, reflecting a cautious atmosphere after two sharp declines.

Daily readings from 9/20 to 9/26: 48, 48, 47, 40, 39, 41, ranging from 32 to 48. Sentiment fluctuated significantly with price movements.

At the beginning of the week, the index was close to 48, slightly optimistic and confident in maintaining the range; after the sharp drop on the 22nd, it fell to 40, triggering panic selling; on the 25th, it further dropped to 32, intensifying fear and making positions more defensive.

Overall, sentiment shifted from "neutral → decline → slight stabilization → fear." It has not yet reached "extreme fear," but confidence is weak; if stabilization does not occur, fear may deepen; if support holds or positive news emerges, sentiment could recover.

Fear and Greed Index Data Image

Macro Background

1) Federal Reserve Movements

Powell's Remarks on 9/23:

Signs of slowing growth in the U.S. have emerged, but inflation remains above target, and decisions will still center on inflation. Rate cut expectations may have been partially reflected, but to prevent a rebound in inflation, the Federal Reserve remains cautious. After the remarks, BTC fell, indicating asset volatility under uncertainty regarding policy direction. In a high-leverage environment, any policy signal can amplify volatility.

Reverse Repo: On 9/20, the Federal Reserve absorbed $11.363 billion through fixed-rate reverse repos, indicating that short-term liquidity demand still exists.

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2) Key Economic Data and Market Reactions

U.S. Q2 Real GDP (final): 3.8%

Higher than the 3.3% estimate, indicating strong recovery, primarily driven by consumer spending in transportation, finance, and insurance. Better-than-expected growth supports risk assets (including BTC).

U.S. Q2 Core PCE (final): 2.6%

Slightly higher than the 2.5% estimate but lower than Q1's 3.3%. Easing inflationary pressures increase policy flexibility, slightly benefiting BTC.

Initial Jobless Claims: 218,000 (released on 9/25)

Lower than the forecast of 235,000, indicating a strong labor market, raising market concerns about a slower pace of rate cuts; coupled with the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, sentiment turned cautious, increasing BTC volatility.

Personal Consumption (annualized Q2): 2.5%

Higher than the 1.7% estimate, indicating robust domestic demand, indirectly supporting risk assets.

3) Market Structure and Derivatives

$23 billion in BTC & ETH options expiration

Deribit noted that about $23 billion in BTC and ETH options are expiring today, one of the largest scales in history. Positions are concentrated at both ends: protective puts below $95k and calls above $140k. Short-term positions are active, indicating that the market expects the next move to be driven by either short covering or passive liquidations.

Tether Issuance Dynamics

On 9/20, Whale Alert tracked Tether minting $1 billion USDT on Ethereum; over the past 8 days, a total of $5 billion was minted, which helps with liquidity and sentiment in the short term.

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4) U.S. Trade Policy

On 9/26, President Trump announced new tariffs effective 10/1—100% on imported branded drugs, 25% on heavy trucks, and 30-50% on furniture/cabinets. The goal is to boost manufacturing, but the risk of retaliation increases, adding uncertainty to the global economy and markets. Related sectors in Asia fell, and BTC faced pressure, cooling investor risk appetite.

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5) Hashrate Changes

This week showed a clear rhythm: reaching a high on 9/20, retreating from 9/21 to 9/23, a brief rebound midweek, and stabilizing at a lower range from 9/25 to 9/26. On 2025/09/20, block 915,533 recorded a historical high of 1.442 ZH/s; as of 9/26 09:59 UTC, the real-time reading was 1,136.56 EH/s (approximately 1.137 ZH/s).

Key Changes

9/20---Created a historical high:

Hashrate reached 1.442 ZH/s, marking the peak of the week and the network. Prior difficulty had been adjusted, providing a backdrop for high computational volume.

9/21--9/23---Retreating from the peak:

Charts show a drop from ATH to a lower range (approximately 1.0--1.2 ZH/s). No difficulty readjustment occurred during the 9/20--9/26 period: CoinWarz/YCharts indicated that difficulty remained around 142.34T since the adjustment on 9/18. Daily fluctuations were more due to miners starting and stopping operations and the randomness of mining pools, rather than protocol changes.

9/24---Brief rebound:

The chart shows a return to about 1.1 ZH/s midweek. The rebound aligns with the logic of more machines coming online and normalizing mining pool variance under unchanged difficulty.

9/25---Stabilizing after probing local lows:

At 03:19 UTC, it showed 1,039.53 EH/s (approximately 1.040 ZH/s), one of the lower readings of the week, then stabilized around ~1.1 ZH/s.

9/26---Maintaining around 1.14 ZH/s:

As of Friday morning (09:59 UTC), it recorded 1,136.56 EH/s.

Bitcoin difficulty rose to about 142.34T on 9/18 and remained unchanged through 9/26. Therefore, this week's hashrate fluctuations mainly reflected miner availability (such as regional weather restrictions, maintenance) and mining pool variance, rather than protocol adjustments.

Outlook (Next Difficulty Adjustment Window and Direction)

Timing:

Tracking shows the next difficulty readjustment is around 2025/10/01 (UTC).

Directional Tendency:

If hashrate maintains ~1.1--1.15 ZH/s (corresponding to 9/25--9/26 readings), then a slight upward adjustment is likely entering the next Epoch: when actual hashrate exceeds the implied level of current difficulty, block times tend to be slightly faster than the 10-minute target, and the protocol will adjust the difficulty upwards to correct. The actual percentage depends on the average interval of the entire 2,016 block window.

Future Observation Focus:

1) Continued occurrence of >1 ZH/s: If >1 ZH/s becomes a new floor, it indicates that the peak on 9/20 was not a one-time spike, and new capacity/online time continues. CoinWarz's real-time readings support this baseline.

2) Mining pool share and regional restriction news: Differences between U.S. miners (weather/grid) and overseas mining teams will still cause daily hashrate fluctuations; heatwaves or grid events are typical short-term downward factors.

3) Next week's difficulty print: An upward adjustment certainly enhances security, but at current prices, it compresses miner profits; maintaining or lowering would mean that hashrate cools towards the end of the Epoch.

Summary

The hashrate trend follows a textbook rhythm of "creating a high (9/20) → normalizing (9/21--23) → midweek rebound (9/24) → stabilizing after probing local lows (9/25--26)." Under the ~142.34T difficulty anchor, and with the 9/26 real-time reading still above 1 ZH/s, the network maintains a high level of security. If there are no exogenous restrictions, the baseline scenario is a slight upward adjustment in difficulty around 10/1 to bring block times back to target.

Key Changes Image

6. Mining Revenue

According to YCharts, miners' total daily revenue (block rewards + transaction fees) this week ranged from $50.17 million to $59.68 million:

9/20: $56.55M

9/21: $59.68M

9/22: $54.20M

9/23: $51.05M

9/24: $55.10M

9/25: $50.17M

Bitcoin Miners Daily Revenue Data

The overall trend is downward, influenced by BTC volatility, hashrate changes, and weakening fees. The Hashrate Index shows that on 9/26, Hashprice = $48.71/PH/s/day, with a weekly low of $48.60 (on 9/26).

Conclusion:

This week's decline in miner revenue is mainly due to weak prices and fees; a high hashrate environment means cost pressures still exist. If BTC continues to fall, Hashprice remains at risk of decline. In the long term, the mid-cycle halving and stable on-chain activity provide medium-to-long-term support for revenue.

Hashprice Data

7. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency

According to CloverPool, as of 2025/09/26, Bitcoin network hashrate is 1.09 ZH/s, and difficulty is 142.34T. The next adjustment is expected on 10/02, with an anticipated +2.81% to 146.35T, indicating moderate growth in hashrate and rising hardware/electricity costs. Individual machine revenue may decline, but higher hashrate represents miners' confidence and continued investment in efficient equipment; in the short term, it enhances network security while shifting pressure to higher-cost miners.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

From a cost perspective, MacroMicro estimates that on 9/24, Bitcoin's production cost was approximately $102,686.82, with a spot price of about $113,328.63, resulting in a cost/price ratio of 0.91, approximately 9% gross profit. This week, gross profit was slightly compressed; overall, it remains profitable, but if prices decline, weaker miners face increasing pressure, which may lead to hashrate fluctuations or migration to lower-cost regions.

Total Mining Cost per Bitcoin Data

The on-chain Puell Multiple remains at 1.24--1.27. This indicator compares the daily issuance value to the annual average, measuring miner profitability and market overheating (>2 is considered overheated). The current range indicates that miner profitability is still acceptable and not overheated; however, the two sharp declines this week have tightened cash flow for high-cost miners. Overall, the Puell indicator remains good, but volatility creates risk stratification: the possibility of slight fluctuations in short-term hashrate increases, while high-cost miners face pressure, and low-cost miners remain relatively stable.

BTC Puell Multiple Data

8. Policy and Regulatory Dynamics

Russia Will Not Expand Regional Mining Ban

On 2025/09/26, the Russian government confirmed that it would not further expand the regional mining ban beyond current restrictions, providing local miners with clearer regulatory expectations and a more stable operating environment. U.S. regulatory agencies are investigating stock price movements prior to the announcement of "crypto custody."

On 2025/09/26, the SEC and FINRA launched investigations into stock price movements of companies announcing the adoption of crypto assets as custody, focusing on compliance risks such as insider trading or selective information disclosure.

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UK FCA Accelerates Approval for Crypto Companies

From 2025/09/21 to 25, the FCA reduced the registration approval time from about 17 months to about 5 months, with the approval rate rising from <15% to about 45%, aiming to enhance the UK's friendliness toward the crypto industry before broader regulation.

China Requires Brokerages to Suspend RWA Tokenization Business in Hong Kong

On 2025/09/23, reports indicated that national securities regulatory authorities required domestic brokerages to suspend the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) in Hong Kong, reflecting Beijing's more cautious attitude toward offshore digital asset expansion, creating tension with Hong Kong's goal of becoming a crypto hub.

UAE Announces Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF)

On 2025/09/20, the UAE Ministry of Finance released CARF, which will be implemented in phases from 2025 to 2028, aiming to strengthen compliance, transparency, and tax reporting for investors and institutions.

Australia Plans to License Crypto Operators Under Existing Financial Services Regulations

On 2025/09/25, Australia announced a draft requiring crypto service providers to be included in the existing AFSL licensing system, covering custody, settlement, and penalties for violations (such as fines or revenue caps).

SEC Chair Atkins Emphasizes Enforcement Determination

On 2025/09/25, Atkins stated that enforcement would be taken "where necessary" regarding conflicts of interest in the crypto space, reiterating that crypto is not exempt from existing financial regulatory frameworks.

SEC and CFTC to Hold Coordinated Regulatory Roundtable

On 2025/09/24, the SEC's crypto working group announced an upcoming SEC-CFTC joint roundtable agenda, focusing on regulatory coordination for innovative DeFi and derivatives.

"Crypto Custody" Regulation Tightens: Focus on Market Fairness

On 2025/09/26, commentary indicated that regulators are increasing scrutiny of companies adopting crypto custody strategies, focusing on information disclosure, fair trading, and potential manipulation risks.

U.S. Crypto ETF Application Surge

On 2025/09/24, reports indicated that after streamlining the SEC process, more crypto ETF proposals will emerge in the fourth quarter. Grayscale announced a multi-asset fund (GDLC) covering BTC, ETH, and more.

Intersection of Banking and Crypto Regulation Becomes Policy Focus

On 2025/09/25, policy analysis pointed out that the Trump administration is promoting the facilitation of crypto capital flows into banking and real estate finance, aiming for deeper integration with the regulated financial system.

9. Mining News

Gryphon Digital Mining Expands U.S. Bitcoin Operations

On 2025/09/23, Gryphon accelerated its expansion in the U.S. mining landscape, emphasizing energy efficiency and compliance, with layouts in multiple states shaping the future standards of U.S. mining.

Google Supports $3 Billion Data Center Financing Project

On 2025/09/24, Google announced support for a $3 billion financing project to build an advanced AI data center in Texas. Although not directly related to BTC mining, it is expected to support blockchain-related workloads, indicating an expanding intersection between tech giants and digital asset infrastructure.

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Despite Declining Miner Revenue, Hashrate Reaches 1.091 ZH/s

On 2025/09/25, data showed that the network's hashrate reached 1.091 ZH/s, highlighting miners' long-term investment and confidence in efficient hardware and network security despite revenue pressures.

Union Jack Oil Promotes "Gas to Bitcoin" to Strengthen U.S. Mining

On 2025/09/23, the company announced the conversion of natural gas resources for BTC mining, reducing energy waste and enhancing the competitiveness of U.S. mining through local energy supply.

Cipher Mining Plans to Issue $800 Million Convertible Bonds

On 2025/09/25, Cipher plans to privately issue $800 million in convertible senior unsecured notes to expand hashrate and improve energy efficiency, showing a proactive expansion strategy in a volatile market.

FTX Trust Sues Genesis Digital for $1.15 Billion Claim

On 2025/09/24, the FTX bankruptcy estate sued Genesis Digital Assets, alleging fraudulent transfers and preferential payments before the collapse. The case may affect the structure of interactions between enterprises and miners.

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Innovation Beverage Group and BlockFuel Miner Plan Reverse Merger

On 2025/09/24, Innovation Beverage Group announced a merger agreement with Bitcoin miner BlockFuel, which could help BlockFuel enter the capital market and allow the former to gain exposure to mining.

Bitcoin Core Developers Reignite Debate on Upgrade Path

On 2025/09/25, proposals surrounding scalability and privacy improvements sparked a new round of discussions, with some supporting the upgrades while others warned of risks in altering the base layer, reigniting the debate on whether Bitcoin should "ossify."

Miners Enter "Calm Zone," Profitability Tightens

On 2025/09/25, analysis indicated that miners have entered a "calm zone" due to collapsing profits. Hashprice fell below $50/PH/s/day (the first time since April) and may continue to slide to ~ $46, increasing pressure on marginal miners.

CleanSpark Expands $100 Million Credit Line Supported by Coinbase

On 2025/09/24, CleanSpark announced an expansion of its $100 million credit line secured by BTC through Coinbase Prime, aimed at expanding mining machines, energy assets, and data center infrastructure.

Cipher Mining Plans to Issue $1.1 Billion Convertible Bonds Due in 2031

On 2025/09/26, Cipher disclosed plans for $1.1 billion in convertible senior notes, enhancing capital flexibility and continuing its previous intention to issue $800 million.

Analysts Bullish on Miners Benefiting from AI Demand

On 2025/09/24, market analysts upgraded ratings for mining stocks like Cipher, IREN, and Riot, anticipating that rising AI computing demand will benefit miners transitioning to a BTC + AI hybrid infrastructure model.